Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1284

(+) Yeah! (+)

Square domination incoming tomorrow...?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages
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Why are you guys so obsessed with posting these before the other topic is even finished
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I think I might be one of the only people taking Sully over Aya
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Wreath posted...

Why are you guys so obsessed with posting these before the other topic is even finished

just making sure another topic is ready once the other one hits 500 and so we don't have 10 different people trying to make the same topic at the same time after it hits 500 (or nobody making it because we all assume someone else is doing it)

it's just easier
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Hbthebattle posted...

I think I might be one of the only people taking Sully over Aya

you're crazy... not scared of TJF(the j** factor)?
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SuperNiceDog posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

I think I might be one of the only people taking Sully over Aya

you're crazy... not scared of TJF(the j** factor)?

Not really, no. Parasite Eve is a series little know about and less care about. Uncharted is quite popular. Im aware normal looking dudes with normal names is probably a death knell, but Uncharted has a legitimate fanbase and Sully is popular among said fanbase. As little as it is, I think thats enough to beat a character only Board 8 knows about anymore.

Its not all about boobs.
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Uncharted is popular in the mainstream but this site never really cared about it. Really only Uncharted 2 gives Drake strength and that game came out 9 years ago. I really don't think Uncharted 4 did anything for him. I have no doubt in mind Pac-Man beats him today.

I gave Aya the win since she's the old Square character. This is one of those matches where neither character should be in Round 2 going off strength alone!
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did you just censor jug

Yeah but heres the trick: Do people even know Aya is a Square RPG character by sight?
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if only she were wearing her Lightning alternate outfit from Third Birthday
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Hbthebattle posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

I think I might be one of the only people taking Sully over Aya

you're crazy... not scared of TJF(the j** factor)?

Not really, no. Parasite Eve is a series little know about and less care about. Uncharted is quite popular. Im aware normal looking dudes with normal names is probably a death knell, but Uncharted has a legitimate fanbase and Sully is popular among said fanbase. As little as it is, I think thats enough to beat a character only Board 8 knows about anymore.

Its not all about boobs.

Correct, it's about character design

suppose you haven't played either game (I haven't for example). Who would look more interesting to vote for? The generic white old guy or the bangin' blonde chick?
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

bangin' blonde chick?

Where do I vote for that one. Samus isn't here until like round 4 so you can't be talking about her.
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I have utmost confidence in Aya Brea taking down that guy
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I mean if Aya could get a PE1 pic it'd be a stone cold lock but she's not getting that
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it'll be a mugshot like everyone else.
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https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/char/12.png

This is your only relevant pic to draw from.

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/char/13.png

Tidus is actually hotter if we're going that way.
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Lopen posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

bangin' blonde chick?

Where do I vote for that one. Samus isn't here until like round 4 so you can't be talking about her.

Yes the pics we have are not great but seriously look at Sully's

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/char/11.png

Unless we see a serious case of SHCF (Same Hair Color Factor) and all would-be blonde likers flock to Tidus without voting for Aya, she should beat Sully really hard purely in terms of character design. You have to hope people are voting for Sully out of respect for his characterization...and honestly, is that what you wanna bank on, when it comes to this site?
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LeonhartFour posted...

I mean if Aya could get a PE1 pic it'd be a stone cold lock but she's not getting that

If Aya gets a gala artwork pic I would bet on her clearing her spread in the betting topic without a second thought

Like jesus talk about strong pic advantage
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I think if you're saying a 3/10 on the pic factor's advantage over a 2/10 on the pic factor is going to be the tipping point you're playing a dangerous game
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Match V: (3) Vivi vs. (14) Yu Narukami

Previous Contest Performance

Vivi - 2013
Round 1: 62.18% against Adam Jensen (23.87%) and Marisa Kirisame (13.95%)
Round 2: 41.27% against Mario (41.09%) and Ganondorf (17.64%)
Round 3: 33.84% against Pokemon Trainer Red (39.10%) and Squall Leonhart (27.05%)

Yu Narukami - 2013
Round 1: 32.59% against Shadow the Hedgehog (49.76%) and Kat (17.65%)

Analysis

With a five-year gap between character battles it is only natural that some characters have increased or decreased in strength and as gurus we must make decisions to stay ahead of the curve. One of my expectations is that Final Fantasy IX characters will be stronger this year. The game had a great performance in 2015 and it feels like people are getting warmer towards what was once a relatively forgotten game of the series. Now that doesnt mean I think Vivi will defeat Mario, but I do feel he has the potential to reach the Squall/Auron/Tifa tier of Final Fantasy characters.

Yu also has reasons to be stronger too. The Persona series has gone from niche to relatively popular, especially with the release of Persona 5. Yu may have missed out on the full boost, but its clear that Persona 4 has gotten more popular as well. Of course, this wont cover the gap between Vivi and Yu, but we could see a bit of an overperformance.

charmander6000s Bracket: Vivi > Yu Narukami

charmander6000s Prediction: 70.32% - 29.68%




Match VI: (6) Victor Sullivan vs. (11) Aya Brea

Previous Contest Performance

Victor Sullivan - N/A
N/A

Aya Brea - 2013
Round 1: 18.18% against Sora (46.81%) and Scorpion (35.00%)

Analysis

After taking a long break Aya Brea returned in 2013 to show us that she is, unsurprisingly no longer equal to Donkey Kong. She may not be horrible fodder, but she is fodder nonetheless and with nothing since the last contest I dont expect much out of her.

Though to be fair, I dont expect much out of Victor Sullivan whom is only here because of a board rally. Nathan Drake hasnt shown much strength in these contests so to expect a side character, even a popular one from the same series to be worth anything is not wise.

Still I wouldnt completely discredit Sullivans chances. Aya Brea could be even weaker now to the point where shes horrible, but the safe bet is to go with Aya Brea.

charmander6000s Bracket: Aya Brea > Victor Sullivan

charmander6000s Prediction: Aya Brea wins, 62.73% - 37.27%
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Match VII: (7) Tidus vs. (10) Donkey Kong

Previous Contest Performance

Tidus - 2013
Round 1: 40.50% against Missingno (40.58%) and Banjo (18.92%)

Donkey Kong - 2013
Round 1: 45.76% against Lightning (38.42%) and Falco Lombardi (15.82%)
Round 2: 17.08% against Charizard (41.49%) and Zelda (41.43%)

Analysis

Our first Square vs. Nintendo match. This match will give us our first insight onto whether one of the two major companies have gained over the other. Both characters have appeared in almost all the character battles, so we generally have a good idea on where they stand relatively to their respective companies. Based on old results, Tidus is expected to win a close, but comfortable match against Donkey Kong. However, will that hold true in 2018?

One weakness for Final Fantasy characters is that they are stuck in their own game and while they appear in other titles like Dissidia and Kingdom Hearts over time they will begin to depreciate. We already saw this with Final Fantasy X where the game was arguably equal to Super Smash Bros. Melee in 2010 but has lost half a step by 2015 and with no other major title the same should be true for their characters.

Lucky for the series that GameFAQs does not attract many new users so this drop in strength has been slow. Would it be enough to avoid losing to Donkey Kong? I think so. Donkey Kong has been relatively quiet for a Nintendo character, so I dont see him winning. Its possible, but I just cant pull the trigger on one of the most notorious chokers in GameFAQs history.

charmander6000s Bracket: Tidus > Donkey Kong

charmander6000s Prediction: Tidus wins, 53.11% - 46.89%




Match VIII: (2) Leon Kennedy vs. (15) Dragonborn

Previous Contest Performance

Leon Kennedy - 2013
Round 1: 51.21% against Albert Wesker (28.06%) and Oliver (20.73%)
Round 2: 39.73% against Gordon Freeman (33.45%) and Shadow the Hedgehog (26.82%)
Round 3: 15.15% against Squirtle (42.91%) and Cloud Strife (41.94%)

Dragonborn - 2013
Round 1: 42.33% against Tom Nook (29.82%) and Pyramid Head (27.85%)
Round 2: 30.43% against Tifa Lockheart (44.56%) and Yuna (25.00%)

Analysis

Its a bit of a shame that Dragonborn was given such an unwinnable match, with his inconclusive performance in 2013 he could have had a debatable match against a mid-carder. Leon Kennedy is just a bit too strong for him to overcome. I also wouldnt be surprised if Dragonborn is a bit weaker now relatively to 2013.

If Leon wants to show that he has a chance at reaching the division finals hell have to come up big here. Its hard to know exactly what he needs to become the favourite against Vivi, but I imagine a failure to break 60% will not be enough to convince the board.

charmander6000s Bracket: Leon Kennedy > Dragonborn

charmander6000s Prediction: Leon Kennedy wins, 64.26% - 35.74%
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charmander6000 posted...

Final Fantasy X where the game was arguably equal to Super Smash Bros. Melee in 2010 but has lost half a step by 2015

I keep tellin' ya that CT was on the verge of giving Melee a beatdown that would've rivaled the one it gave FFX...!
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Double elimination for 128 characters would legit take half a year even if we did 4 matches a day
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So does anyone else have Leon > Vivi? I know we'll get an idea of that here soon, but I think Leon's going to take him down pretty easily.
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LeonhartFour posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Final Fantasy X where the game was arguably equal to Super Smash Bros. Melee in 2010 but has lost half a step by 2015

I keep tellin' ya that CT was on the verge of giving Melee a beatdown that would've rivaled the one it gave FFX...!

I'm pretty confident Melee would have done better than FFX. Still would have been 60/40.
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Lopen posted...

I think if you're saying a 3/10 on the pic factor's advantage over a 2/10 on the pic factor is going to be the tipping point you're playing a dangerous game

I also think Aya is stronger in general to boot

like even after PE3 was terrible, if Squeenix put out a PE4 trailer, there would at least be some interest here. Whereas I think Uncharted: The Goddamn Sullivan Years would get a cold reception as far as the site is concerned. It's possible Aya has fallen off a damn cliff and Sully just plain wins outright, but I don't think he has a single reliable contest factor going in his favor here. Not pic advantage, not past contest performances, not company name, nothing. Am I missing anything we'd usually use to pick matches when in doubt that he might have in his corner? Cuz I can't find anything.
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Leon has been stronger than Vivi most years, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win. It just depends on how much legitimacy you give to CBIX.

Or if you think Leon's faded a bit with RE4 getting older and the series in general not being as respected as it used to be.
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charmander6000 posted...

I'm pretty confident Melee would have done better than FFX. Still would have been 60/40.

CT had already blown past 60% during Melee's best time when the rally started.

CT gets 62% at minimum, maybe 63%+, which would still put it in FFX's ballpark.
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BetrayedTangy posted...

So does anyone else have Leon > Vivi? I know we'll get an idea of that here soon, but I think Leon's going to take him down pretty easily.

I do. Banking on the idea that base Vivi has never been on his level and 1v1 this will continue to be true, especially with Leon getting RE2Make hype. We'll see if it pans out!
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Would people actually care about PE4? I never hear Parasite Eve discussed here, on /v/, or a bunch of other places. I'm honestly surprised Aya is even in the contest, though I suppose once you've been in getting in again is easier.

Anyway, Aya hasn't done anything noteworthy in 16 years contestwise, and she did that during the golden age of Square RPGs.
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Now that I think about it, the only thing I really know about Aya is that she has appeared in these contests. I absolutely never hear anyone discuss her games or anything. There's some really bizarre choices that have just kind of hung around these contests that I'll never understand - perhaps it's the walkthrough factor? Like, is Parasite Eve a game where people would likely look at guides?
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It's an RPG so that's an inherent yes.
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Hbthebattle posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

I think I might be one of the only people taking Sully over Aya

you're crazy... not scared of TJF(the j** factor)?

Not really, no. Parasite Eve is a series little know about and less care about. Uncharted is quite popular. Im aware normal looking dudes with normal names is probably a death knell, but Uncharted has a legitimate fanbase and Sully is popular among said fanbase. As little as it is, I think thats enough to beat a character only Board 8 knows about anymore.

Its not all about boobs.

It is in this match!
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I probably wouldn't care about a PE4 because, while I love PE1, 2 and 3 were not good.
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

Double elimination for 128 characters would legit take half a year even if we did 4 matches a day

Not really. It can be done in three months.
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Lopen posted...

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/char/12.png

This is your only relevant pic to draw from.

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/char/13.png

Tidus is actually hotter if we're going that way.

The hottest blonde in the bracket is Ramza though.
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cyko posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

Hbthebattle posted...

I think I might be one of the only people taking Sully over Aya

you're crazy... not scared of TJF(the j** factor)?

Not really, no. Parasite Eve is a series little know about and less care about. Uncharted is quite popular. Im aware normal looking dudes with normal names is probably a death knell, but Uncharted has a legitimate fanbase and Sully is popular among said fanbase. As little as it is, I think thats enough to beat a character only Board 8 knows about anymore.

Its not all about boobs.

It is in this match!

Well, you barely can see Aya's boobs in the match pic anyway. So, uh, yeah.
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charmander6000 posted...

The whole contest should have been a double elimination, so when a character gets rallied we'll still have a contest going on.

Double elimination also means that a rally has to be beaten twice...!
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Hbthebattle posted...

Would people actually care about PE4? I never hear Parasite Eve discussed here, on /v/, or a bunch of other places. I'm honestly surprised Aya is even in the contest, though I suppose once you've been in getting in again is easier.

Anyway, Aya hasn't done anything noteworthy in 16 years contestwise, and she did that during the golden age of Square RPGs.

Extremely yes

Parasite Eve was a really unique series. Even with the rise of Persona, there still isn't much like it, urban fantasy with gun focus and anime aesthetics. It sold well and was well-liked even though the second game wasn't as good as the first. It's easily a series that could get a strong revival. The only thing blocking it is copyright hell since it was based on a novel (which is why Third Birthday wasn't called Parasite Eve).
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Curious to see what the prediction percentage will be for Spyro/Chun-Li. I expect the other three to have fairly high percentages, but I wonder if Spyro was actually the overall favorite here.
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Hbthebattle posted...

I think I might be one of the only people taking Sully over Aya

I'm with yah in taking Sully!

LeonhartFour posted...

Curious to see what the prediction percentage will be for Spyro/Chun-Li. I expect the other three to have fairly high percentages, but I wonder if Spyro was actually the overall favorite here.

It depends on how many overall brackets we'll have. Spyro typically overperforms while Chun-Li underperforms plus he is the higher seed.
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LeonhartFour posted...

okay for trend charts my initial thinking is

Board Vote (0:00-0:05)
Power Hour (0:00-1:00)
Early Night Vote (1:00-6:00) (9 PM-2 AM)
Deep Night Vote (6:00-10:00) (2 AM-6 AM)
Morning Vote (10:00-16:00) (6 AM-12 PM)
Day Vote (16:00-24:00) (12 PM-8 PM)

Not sure if I should split the day vote into two parts or not. This is traditionally when the ASV begins, so I guess I'll monitor how things are going.

That seems like a good division of time periods. Although when the match start time moves to 7:00 PM after the November DST switch, I guess this means one less hour of Day Vote and one extra hour of Early Night Vote.

Traditionally, the November DST switch would have produced a 25 hour match, but not this time with matches starting at 7:00 PM after the switch. The matches that are currently active at the time of the switch still run for only 24 hours.

As for how to handle trends for the matches that happen during the DST switch, the time period separation points starting from the Power Hour should be 9:00 PM / 1:00 AM (after going back one hour) / 5:00 AM / 11:00 AM / 7:00 PM. That set-up maintains the same number of hours for each time period prior to the November DST switch.
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.
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Whoever loses the Tidus/DK match is inherently going to look completely pathetic and I cannot wait
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Missing poll updates for today's matches:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18vG8cIszlBDQA-l5popmPe8q60mmztog7aAs6YAIdSc/pub

Leon can rely on those updates to fill in the gaps for his trend charts.
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This may (probably) was answered earlier but seeing that the detailed results now match the result hub I take it both are the same and reflect the registered user bonus? And that the raw data isn't displayed (but I remember Luster saying it could be accessed through source code on the map or something)?

Any plans on having the raw data posted after the match is over if only to see who was favored by the bonus?
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How do you pronounce Aya's last name? I feel like I've been saying it wrong in my head all this time.

Bree? Bree-ah? Bray? Bray-ah? Something else?
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It rhymes
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Well now I feel like I've been pronouncing her first name wrong too
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