Board 8 > ~Lightning Strikes's CBX Snap Analysis~

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Lightning Strikes
10/20/18 6:53:47 AM
#1:


Hey everybody!

I thought it would be fun to do some quick post-match analyses of each match in the contest as they happen. The purpose of this is not to do a full super-lengthy analysis like others do post-contest, but just a few quick and simple paragraphs about what happened and what it means for future matches. I couldn't for the first matches, but I will try to do these right as the matches end in the future, as quickly as possible.

Let's begin!

Day 1, Match 1 - Dante vs. Cuphead
(1) Dante: 71.59% - (16) Cuphead: 28.41%

What happened?: This was a fairly standard, easy to predict 1 vs. 16 blowout. The only remarkable thing about it is that Cuphead beat expectations, avoiding a tripling and even getting up to just below 30% during the Early Night Vote. Dante did better with registered users, though the prediction percentage was perhaps a bit lower than you might think with 81.71% choosing Dante.

What could this mean?: That Cuphead was thoroughly under-seeded mainly. It's not surprising that he overperformed the board's expectations and his seed, his game destroyed two GotY polls (it even quadrupled a well-liked Assassin's Creed game) and came third in the final poll. Some people are nervous about Dante vs. Ganondorf or even vs. Lightning from this, but this specific match isn't cause to be I think. Just that Cuphead deserved a better match-up, and hopefully will get one in the future. I also feel better about Shovel Knight thanks to this performance, as the most comparable character in the bracket to Cuphead.

Day 1, Match 2 - Lightning vs. Chloe Price
(8) Lightning: 74.19% - (9) Chloe Price: 25.81%

What happened?: A blowout most people expected, for an 8 vs. 9 match the prediction percentage was a huge 80.74%. I was a little cautious on this one due to distrusting Lightning and wondering if Life is Strange had gained popularity. Obviously I was wrong. Trend-wise Lightning had an awful board vote, but then gradually increased before stabilising at 74% around the halfway point.

What could this mean?: That Life is Strange is garbo on here. And Chloe might not even have the support of fans of that. Even the prediction percentages showed it. Lightning might be better than expected after her awful 2013 showing, but it is too early to say. How she holds up against Dante is the real test of this. Chloe is probably a bottom 5 character, almost certainly bottom 10. She'd certainly get destroyed by Cuphead so I think Dante will clear Lightning easily, 60-40 or more.

I will get to the next two later today. As I have more time later, hopefully I'll be able to get slightly more detailed. Enjoy!
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LinkMarioSamus
10/20/18 7:05:18 AM
#2:


Lightning was actually the 9 seed there.

Either way, awaiting the next write-ups!
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ZenOfThunder
10/20/18 7:38:14 AM
#3:


tag
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Lightning Strikes
10/20/18 8:16:56 AM
#4:


LinkMarioSamus posted...
Lightning was actually the 9 seed there.

Either way, awaiting the next write-ups!


Right you are, thanks! Of course I didn't see that until it was too late to edit... Oh well.
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HarrietTubgirl
10/20/18 8:39:14 AM
#5:


Tag
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SephG on the go
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KamikazePotato
10/20/18 10:07:24 AM
#6:


Tag
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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Safer_777
10/20/18 10:11:38 AM
#7:


Nice.
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garetha200
10/20/18 10:22:59 AM
#8:


Tag
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Lightning Strikes
10/20/18 12:55:19 PM
#9:


Day 1, Match 3 - Spyro the Dragon vs. Chun-Li
(5) Spyro: 43.83% - (12) Chun-Li: 56.17%

What happened?: This was the first debated match of the contest. It shows in the prediction percentage, with just over 55% getting it right. Historically Chun-Li would stomp, but arguably Street Fighter has faded from relevance a bit and Spyro has been the most relevant he's been in almost 20 years. His 5-seed speaks for itself here, his highest ever. Additionally, he looked miles better in 2013 as a result of nostalgia for that era starting up. In the end it wasn't quite enough. Spyro looked pretty good here, and for the first hour-ish looked like it could be close, with Spyro winning multiple updates. Unfortunately soon after the kiddies went to bed, and Chun-Li was gaining slowly for the rest of the match other than a few random spots. Unsurprisingly Spyro looked best in Europe, even winning in a few territories, but it wasn't enough and the match ended up a fairly standard 56/44 affair.

What could this mean?: For this contest, nothing. Whoever wins is going to get stomped by Ganondorf. In general though, despite losing this was a big moral victory for Spyro. Back in the day this would have been at least a doubling if not a tripling. Spyro has boosted a lot, and that 2013 performance seems legit after all. It's too early to say if Chun-Li has changed at all, but it would probably be pretty slight. She did better with the GameFAQs vote, but it won't matter given what she's up against next round.
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ZenOfThunder
10/20/18 12:58:09 PM
#10:


i dig your format
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Nanis23
10/20/18 1:05:24 PM
#11:


Lightning Strikes posted...
What could this mean?: That Life is Strange is garbo on here

And people wanted to get Kate Marsh in
It could have been much worse
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ZenOfThunder
10/20/18 1:10:44 PM
#12:


Kate Marsh would have been a fine 16 or 15 seed that was happy-to-be-here

we got fucking CATS in for more than a decade
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Lightning Strikes
10/20/18 1:39:52 PM
#13:


Thanks Zen! <3

Day 1, Match 4 - Ganondorf vs. Neku Sakuraba
(4) Ganondorf: 78.6% - (13) Neku: 21.4%

What happened?: ZeldaFAQs, baby. This was always going to be a stomp (it was the most correctly predicted of the first four matches), but Ganondorf easily outperformed reasonable expectations here. He was nearing 80% during the Power Hour, and looked great otherwise. In 2008 Ganondorf got 77.9 on Neku, in 2010 he was projected to get 71.8 and in 2013 69.6. This was a big overperformance.

What could this mean?: Either Ganondorf is at his best, or Neku is at his worst. I am sceptical of the latter. Neku has looked better and better with each appearance, and for good reason. TWEWY is a beloved cult-ish game that has steadily gotten more and more eyes on it. Additionally in 2012 there was a major phone port and Neku was in a Kingdom Hearts game. There was a definite boost in 2013 as a result. Now this match came days after the Switch port (which seems to be outselling the original) and I see no reason for Neku to have reverted to 2008 levels or below. This was a great showing from Ganondorf, and he looks primed to take the division. Him overperforming with the GameFAQs vote just shows how much the Zelda franchise will benefit from the new system. Squall had better beware against Zelda herself also. Zelda is bigger than it's ever been and GaneFAQs loves it some Zelda.
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LetsGoEevee133
10/20/18 1:43:45 PM
#14:


Yeah...

Once I saw Ganondorf use his ToP on Neku.... I knew I made a huge mistake with Squall over Zelda when my heart kept telling me ZeldaFAQs... that is points I could have got no one else would have, and I talked myself out of it.

Ganondorf is winning his division, Zelda is winning hers. And I feel like an idiot for not picking either.
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LinkMarioSamus
10/20/18 1:58:59 PM
#15:


To be fair remember that TWEWY only got 22% on Pokmon GSC in the games contest.

I think TWEWY has definitely faded into irrelevance as far as this site is concerned.
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spooky96
10/20/18 2:07:54 PM
#16:


tag
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Nanis23
10/20/18 2:13:44 PM
#17:


TWEWY does sound like a game that should be popular on GameFAQs but isn't

I think TWEWY has definitely faded into irrelevance

You mean just having a Switch port released last month? relevancy is not the reason he lost so badly
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LinkMarioSamus
10/20/18 2:15:42 PM
#18:


I highly doubt most of this site cares about a Switch port. That's why I said "as far as this site is concerned".

Plus it's not like Final Fantasy X HD did much to stem that game's decline.
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ZeldaTPLink
10/20/18 2:37:42 PM
#19:


Nanis23 posted...
TWEWY does sound like a game that should be popular on GameFAQs but isn't

I think TWEWY has definitely faded into irrelevance

You mean just having a Switch port released last month? relevancy is not the reason he lost so badly


It's probably more popular here than anywhere else tbh.
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SuperNiceDog
10/20/18 2:42:21 PM
#20:


DOCUMENT this man! me and zen will do it
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ZenOfThunder
10/20/18 2:42:24 PM
#21:


i'd say 95% of all 30 people who bought the TWEWY switch port are Board 8 regulars
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ZenOfThunder
10/20/18 2:42:44 PM
#22:


@SuperNiceDog i'll document this over at traffic jam, good idea
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SuperNiceDog
10/20/18 2:44:32 PM
#23:


ZenOfThunder posted...
@SuperNiceDog i'll document this over at traffic jam, good idea


k. What's traffic jam?
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#24
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SuperNiceDog
10/20/18 2:46:07 PM
#25:


ZenOfThunder posted...
@SuperNiceDog i'll document this over at traffic jam, good idea


also we should hire a 3rd person to do screenshots on the itt thread. Also maybe rename the next itt thread to "We DOCUMENT Character battle X(part 3)" make it easier to ppl to figure out what it is
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ZeldaTPLink
10/20/18 2:46:56 PM
#26:


SuperNiceDog posted...
ZenOfThunder posted...
@SuperNiceDog i'll document this over at traffic jam, good idea


k. What's traffic jam?


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/184626-traffic-jam/76917465
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Lightning Strikes
10/20/18 2:56:36 PM
#29:


Thanks for the archiving guys! Super helpful as the last two days have been very busy. Glad to see this going down well!
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ZenOfThunder
10/20/18 6:03:17 PM
#30:


archived up to Ganondorf/Neku

let me know if you want any specific exchanges made itt archived! keep up the good work
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TheCodeisBosco
10/20/18 6:04:05 PM
#31:


Enjoying these write-ups so far! Keep up the good work.
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LeonhartFour
10/20/18 6:04:50 PM
#32:


just remember that we thought Tifa was going to be a Cloud proxy in 2005 because she nearly matched his performance on Vyse

don't make too much out of blowouts of bad fodder
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Lightning Strikes
10/20/18 7:50:31 PM
#33:


I don't think Ganondorf is going to be Noble 9 level or anything, but he does look a step better than he has before, especially recently. Also thanks again Zen!

Next batch in the (European) morning.
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Safer_777
10/21/18 6:51:28 AM
#34:


Up.
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 6:56:25 AM
#35:


Day 2, Match 1 - Vivi vs. Yu Narukami
(3) Vivi: 74.89% - (14) Yu: 25.11%

What happened?: This was a pretty uneventful blowout, without much interesting in the way of trends other than Yu's strong board vote. Vivi performed almost exactly to expectations. This has to be the most boring match of the the contest so far, thank Allen for four matches at once.

What could this mean?: The only possible takeaway of value is that Vivi might be as strong as he was in 2013. He is a clear standout among the FF characters in that regard. This is muddied by the possibility of SFF though. As for Yu, Persona is strong and Persona 4 is strong, but as an avatar that doesn't even get the name he's running with in the game, he's inevitably going to struggle.
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 8:55:46 AM
#36:


Day 2, Match 2 - Victor Sullivan vs. Aya Brea
(6) Sully: 40.44% - (11) Aya: 59.56%

What happened?: This was one of the most debated matches of the first round. Literally nobody cares about Parasite Eve anymore, that series is quite dead. Uncharted has always been strangely weak on GameFAQs, despite Sony first party games doing well, including The Last of Us. Nathan Drake lost to CATS, then post-Uncharted 2 has been around the fodder line. Sully was a slight overall favourite, while Aya was the board favourite. This wasn't a blowout, but Aya won pretty easily. Earlier on this looked like it would be a fairly savage beating as Aya trounced Sully with the board vote and through most of the Power Hour, but then it turned into a fairly standard 60/40ish affair for the rest of the match.

What could this mean?: GameFAQs is decidedly stuck in the past. Parasite Eve and its first sequel were well-received but they weren't classics. However, large numbers of the people voting in these polls have been here for a long time and will definitely vote for the lead of that over a (well-liked) side character from Uncharted. The 90's still reign on here. Additionally, Sully and Uncharted as a whole are quite bad. I don't think this reflects on Ellie vs. KOS-MOS because TLoU is worth a lot more than Uncharted here for some reason. I will say though, I think this match slightly disproves TJF as it was just Aya's face in the picture. Sully was arguably more recognisable in the picture, yet even a mid-tier (at best) 90's Square franchise topped him. The last thing I'll say is that this match and No Mercy vs. Path of Radiance back in GotD have convinced me that the 6-seed is the default Guru nom seed. That bodes well for Aqua and her 2-seed.
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 9:32:37 AM
#37:


Day 2, Match 3 - Tidus vs. Donkey Kong
(7) Tidus: 43.07% - (10) Donkey Kong: 56.93%

What happened?: HA HA HA HA HA HA This match was... Hilarious. Going in this match was a tough one on paper. Two kings of choking going up against each other. Donkey Kong lost the last choke-off against Master Chief, then was redeemed in 2013 when he humiliated Lightning despite having Falco in the poll. Tidus nearly beat Missingno. in 2013 but then that looked pretty bad in round 2. He has also generally slid in strength, now looking like the weakest FF protagonist (other than Cecil) and arguably the weakest character in his own game. If Wakka got in he might look better than Tidus. Still, statistically Tidus has looked very slightly better than DK, so he was the board favourite. Then the match started. It was close for five minutes as board 8 furiously bracket voted, but the Donkey Kong ran away with it. Tidus just about won a few night vote updates but this match was never in question. To top it off the casuals bodied us on this one, taking DK two to one.

What could this mean?: A few things. First that Tidus is the unquestioned king of choke. Second, Donkey Kong has gotten so much better in recent years. We should have seen it coming really. In 2013 Donkey Kong looked to have boosted which was largely ignored. This made sense, thanks to Donkey Kong Country Returns making that series relevant (and well, existant) again. Since then, Tropical Freeze came out and was beloved, and then the Switch version came out and put it in front of more people. So this is the best Donkey Kong has ever looked. Add to that the Switch boosting Nintendo in general, and it makes sense. I think he will look good against Leon next round. And of course, beware if you're up against Nintendo. Lastly we really should consider new releases and relevance more than just going with the stats.
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 9:57:47 AM
#38:


Day 2, Match 4 - Leon Kennedy vs. Dragonborn
(2) Leon: 68.68% - (15) Dragonborn: 31.32%

What happened?: Dragonborn looked good last time, but here never stood a chance, losing to Leon as badly as they lost to Tifa. In the early hours this was almost a tripling. To Dragonborn's credit however, they did recover as the match went on, especially with the day vote as you might expect from their respective games.

What could this mean?: Leon looked really good here, and I think has cemented himself as the favourite over Vivi. He looked bad in 2013 relative to previous appearances and would have only gotten 54% on Dragonborn but here he excelled. This speaks to the health of Resident Evil, with 7 and the 2 Remake it is back. As for Dragonborn, a generic avatar from a beloved game was never going to stack up to a defined character. Skyrim would beat RE4, but nobody cares about the Dragonborn. People LOVE Leon. This was a victory for character (that is also tied to a series people know and love). I am now very curious to see how Joker vs. Claire turns out, as that is in many ways a mirror of this match but the seeds are reversed, the RE character is less popular, and Joker is more of a real character.
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LeonhartFour
10/21/18 10:04:50 AM
#39:


Lightning Strikes posted...
Lastly we really should consider new releases and relevance more than just going with the stats.


thanks man that never occurred to anyone
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 10:06:37 AM
#40:


LeonhartFour posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
Lastly we really should consider new releases and relevance more than just going with the stats.


thanks man that never occurred to anyone


I edited that in because it seems obvious but you can't deny, the casuals got us good on this one. Contest knowledge can be a curse too!
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LinkMarioSamus
10/21/18 10:09:10 AM
#41:


I stuck with DK > Tidus because I didn't like how my gut picks in some earlier contests were DK > Lightning and DKC2 winning two matches before I chickened out.

DK is the new Kefka confirmed.
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 11:30:07 AM
#42:


Damn I forgot to make an expand dong joke about DK's gains.
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LeonhartFour
10/21/18 3:04:00 PM
#43:


Lightning Strikes posted...
I edited that in because it seems obvious but you can't deny, the casuals got us good on this one. Contest knowledge can be a curse too!


Well yeah, they do occasionally get us, but those instances are pretty rare.

I did say pretty much right from the start that there was a good chance of a general Nintendo boost because this site loves Nintendo again after souring on the Wii and never embracing the Wii U.

I just tend to pick my favorites against my better judgment anyway.
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#44
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igordebraga
10/21/18 4:00:35 PM
#45:


Lightning Strikes posted...
I think this match slightly disproves TJF as it was just Aya's face in the picture.


Still, the face proves a lesser version - if no one cares about either character, they go for the hot chick.

Anyway, good write-ups, will follow the topic too.
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 8:48:18 PM
#46:


Day 3, Match 1 - Zero vs. Primrose
(1) Zero: 74.18% - (16) Primrose: 25.82%

What happened?: This was a fairly standard 1/16 match, though I think Primrose definitely exceeded a lot of the board's expectations here, escaping the tripling. Zero was more than tripling during the Power Hour, but then Primrose gained percentage and it was fairly stable from there. Primrose arguably benefited from the Monika rallies but that isn't entirely clear.

What could this mean?: some people are taking this as an indictment of Zero but I don't think so. I think Primrose is actually not trash. Octopath Traveler is an open world RPG in the style of a SNES JRPG developed by Square and published by Nintendo. It is exactly GameFAQs's sort of thing. It will probably come second in this year's Switch poll. And Primrose is the shining star of that game. She got in despite extreme recency and no rallies, I think with time she might end up a reasonable fodder line character.

Day 3, Match 2 - Zidane Tribal vs. Knuckles
(8) Zidane Tribal: 43.2% - (9) Knuckles: 56.8%

What happened?: Another debated match turned fairly one-sided. This was very similar to Tidus vs. DK in a lot of ways. It briefly seemed close then reality set in and it was stable throughout. Historically this match would have either been close or even reversed in favour of Zidane. And sure enough, the casuals beat us again in the prediction arena easily, showing that the "mainstream" picks have some weight behind them.

What could this mean?: That Final Fantasy is DEAD. But more on that in the next match. It was a good show for Knuckles, and there is a fair argument for a Sonic Mania boost. We will have a clearer picture of how much is a Sonic boost and how much is FF decline when Knuckles goes up against Zero. I also have to wonder if Knuckles benefits from the apparent Nintendo boost too, his franchise has been linked to Nintendo for a while. After all, Sonic Mania is as they say perfect for Switch. Expect more Nintendo associated characters showing up Final Fantasy in the future.
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Lightning Strikes
10/21/18 9:14:52 PM
#47:


Day 3, Match 3 - Noctis Lucis Caelum vs. Master Hand
(5) Noctis: 42.45% - (12) Master Hand: 57.55%

What happened?: Part three in the Final Fantasy protagonist loses to a 90's mascot in a debated match trilogy (?), this was split down the middle in the general bracket results and our own, it seemed like a true tossup. Then the match started and Master Hand ran away with it immediately, with little change other than the standard Nintendo/Square trends. Despite beating Kuja Master Hand looked terrible in 2005 so Noctis should have won. But the meme came back to life, and Noctis lost as Kuja did to a goddamn hand.

What does this mean?: Final Fantasy is screwed, especially against Nintendo. Master Hand is low tier Nintendo as far as we know, yet beat the best Square has given us for a decade. Add to that Zidane and Tidus losing what should have been close matches easily and it's a bad look for FF. This also further makes Lightning look not strong at all since I can't imagine she does better. Master Hand probably loses to Wario next round, which shows exactly where on the totem pole Noctis is. To be fair, Master Hand is probably better than in 2005 thanks to Ultimate and Nintendo being generally stronger, but still, Noctis looked dreadful here. It is now likely that Lightning and Squall are the only FF leads out of 7 to win their first match, with the former being due to a very lucky draw. Dante might double Lightning, Zelda is likely to beat Squall. This is a terrible contest for FF and a great one for Nintendo.

Day 3, Match 4 - Monika vs. Wario
(4) Monika: 35.44% - (13) Wario: 64.56%

What happened?: Board 8 got overly paranoid about rallies and convinced itself that Monika might win the whole contest. This did not happen. There was a rally, hence the higher vote totals, but not nearly enough to make Monika a threat to Wario. Stalls and small cuts were all the rally managed.

What could this mean?: That Allen's anti-rally system works, that we can't predict contest changing rallies, and that small dedicated fandoms not in the zeitgeist the way Undertale and LoL were are not to be feared. It was a straightforward match that was very much overhyped. I think the rallies we will see will be smaller ones like the one in this match, and unlikely to change the course of the whole thing. Otherwise Wario looked reasonable and should get to round 3 with no trouble.
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Safer_777
10/22/18 10:45:32 AM
#48:


Nice.
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AndywoodCubeGmr
10/22/18 11:34:10 AM
#49:


Really good write ups man, thanks for doing them.
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#50
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Averia
10/22/18 12:31:55 PM
#51:


Lightning Strikes posted...
What could this mean?: That Allen's anti-rally system works, that we can't predict contest changing rallies, and that small dedicated fandoms not in the zeitgeist the way Undertale and LoL were are not to be feared. It was a straightforward match that was very much overhyped. I think the rallies we will see will be smaller ones like the one in this match, and unlikely to change the course of the whole thing. Otherwise Wario looked reasonable and should get to round 3 with no trouble.


I'm not sure we can say much about the anti rally systems yet.
Even with the double votes and the supposed Monika rally, the match ended up at 30k votes.
A random R1 unrallied match in 2015 would have between 35k and 40k.
What I mean is that something like Draven or Undertale would have gotten out of this Wario match easily.
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ZeldaTPLink
10/22/18 2:23:06 PM
#52:


Averia posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
What could this mean?: That Allen's anti-rally system works, that we can't predict contest changing rallies, and that small dedicated fandoms not in the zeitgeist the way Undertale and LoL were are not to be feared. It was a straightforward match that was very much overhyped. I think the rallies we will see will be smaller ones like the one in this match, and unlikely to change the course of the whole thing. Otherwise Wario looked reasonable and should get to round 3 with no trouble.


I'm not sure we can say much about the anti rally systems yet.
Even with the double votes and the supposed Monika rally, the match ended up at 30k votes.
A random R1 unrallied match in 2015 would have between 35k and 40k.
What I mean is that something like Draven or Undertale would have gotten out of this Wario match easily.


I guess one thing to consider is that rallies need a sucessful first match to catch on, and that can be harder to achieve with the double votes.
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