Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1308

(+) Yeah! (+)

Will Tifa use X-rated rallies to stick a nail in Luigi?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages
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She doesnt need rallies. This time Luigi cannot escape Death.
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I mean vote counts already seem super high...
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Tifa #1 in the XXX-Stats
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Luigi cutting 53 votes in the past 20 minutes
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It's almost like Ulti had this exact same fight and the exact same opinion... 12 years ago.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(1)Mario_vs_(1)Samus_Aran_2005
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This is exactly the same time that X started gaining a ton of votes against Tifa in their last match. It corresponds to more people on the east coast going to sleep - the midwest becomes the central US voting block, and it's easily Tifa's worst area.
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who the hell votes for luigi? He's a hack
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I'm not playing Deltarune or any other Undertale trash Ulti stop asking me to
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ExThaNemesis posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Wait, I've been busy the last couple days, why on earth are people arguing Samus/Mario 2k4?

I thought that was dead and settled years ago

Dude where have you been?

That will never die.

The year will be 2050 and people will still be arguing about Mario/Samus rSFF

I'm travelling for work for the next 2 weeks.

Can someone explain to me the argument in favour of Samus being stronger? I never understood why anyone could possibly think that
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Ulti claiming that Mario would get more than 57% on Sonic when *this* happened:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1345-south-division-round-2-mario-vs-shadow-the-hedgehog
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Yesterday's X-Stats:

Division 5

Zelda 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Waluigi 32.19%
Captain Toad 30.26%
The Boss 29.30%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
D. Va 20.37%
Aloy 19.18%
Hat Kid 17.69%

Division 6

Auron 50.00%
Geralt 46.86%
Bayonetta 46.04%
Simon Belmont 44.81%
Vincent Valentine 44.20%
Pac-Man 44.13%
Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%
Lucina 34.56%
Riku 32.77%
Shulk 32.41%
Claire Redfield 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 27.12%
Sans 25.27%
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

ExThaNemesis posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Wait, I've been busy the last couple days, why on earth are people arguing Samus/Mario 2k4?

I thought that was dead and settled years ago

Dude where have you been?

That will never die.

The year will be 2050 and people will still be arguing about Mario/Samus rSFF

I'm travelling for work for the next 2 weeks.

Can someone explain to me the argument in favour of Samus being stronger? I never understood why anyone could possibly think that

Because every other match pointed to that until Samus and Mario actually met.
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Dont you mean avoid getting nailed *by* Luigi?

As hes losing hes now trying to nail her from behind...

LeonhartFour posted...

Tifa #1 in the XXX-Stats

LOL.

Ulti

Oh no, Samus was definitely indirectly stronger in 2004. Not saying otherwise. My point is that the people who used that to think Samus wasn't going to get her ass whipped by Mario 1 on 1 are being idiots. It involves having a level of common sense so low that you might as well be telling me there are more than two genders.

Im not claiming Samus beats Mario in previous years. We were debating whether Samus boosted significantly from 2K4 to 2K5, like Mario did.

Im saying I dont buy Mario pops 60% on her in 2K4. I could see up to 55%.

So as far as I can see, creative is saying Mario winning 60/40 in 2004 is unrealistic and Lopen says Samus winning in 2004 is unrealistic. How about both of those are unrealistic?

Personally, I'm of the opinion that Mario has SFF power of more than 10 points against Samus and Samus has been stronger than Mario indirectly in every year (assuming Mario can't rally or cheat either). And Mario wins that match directly in every year, through SFF.
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my word did you guys really spend the last topic still arguing about this

one more reason to be glad I have Tsunami on ignore
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Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%

Hmmm, this doesn't quite look right to me, is the thinking that Geralt bandwagoned a bit in the later rounds? I never would have taken Hayabusa over Subby and Magus pre-contest
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why do you think that post meant I actually care about your posturing

oh wait
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Best part of this Ngamer making himself look like a moron right under my writeup and proving my point.

Manalytics > analytics. You don't win in sports on calculators.

He doesn't look like a moron at all. He PICKED THE MATCH CORRECTLY, dude. Stop being a clown.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%

Hmmm, this doesn't quite look right to me, is the thinking that Geralt bandwagoned a bit in the later rounds? I never would have taken Hayabusa over Subby and Magus pre-contest

Yeah, it has been suggested that Geralt may have bandwagoned a bit by the time he reached Auron. It's hard to say for sure.
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Current state of the Stats Topic


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Well, Geralt was certainly in a situation that's gotten people bandwagoned before. Winning multiple close matches is usually good for that sort of thing, especially if any of them are perceived by voters as an "upset."
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Relax Ulti. People have known the x-stats aren't perfect for 13 years. You can use the stats without thinking they are perfect.
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What's Sephiroth predicted to get on current Samus like 45%?
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So judging by the trends from Tifa/X, Tifa should let Luigi get closer over the next few hours before taking off with the European vote and never looking back.

For all the "DURRR RALLIES" my thread on r/FF only has 156 views. It didn't take off at all today, probably because of the timing.
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Hed get around 48.6%.

SlugSh0t posted...

What's Sephiroth predicted to get on current Samus like 45%?

Based on the 2013 stats, currently 42.62% but Sephy still has time to rise more than likely.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

So judging by the trends from Tifa/X, Tifa should let Luigi get closer over the next few hours before taking off with the European vote and never looking back.

For all the "DURRR RALLIES" my thread on r/FF only has 156 views. It didn't take off at all today, probably because of the timing.

Wheres my apology?

LeonhartFour posted...

Based on the 2013 stats, currently 42.62% but Sephy still has time to rise more than likely.

Adjusting for like a 3% Ryu boost means Sephiroth could feasibly be back in SMAUS's ballpark.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

So judging by the trends from Tifa/X, Tifa should let Luigi get closer over the next few hours before taking off with the European vote and never looking back.

For all the "DURRR RALLIES" my thread on r/FF only has 156 views. It didn't take off at all today, probably because of the timing.

Are you really trying to extrapolate Luigi's trends from a Mega Man match?
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Tifa rallied what, 150 votes last round? Even if you hate rallies that's hardly worth getting pissed off about. That happens late in any close match.

Tifa rallied at least 500 votes. She started stalling and cutting during what should have been X's best time. If there were no rallies, X would have had a 400 vote lead going into that final hour. That's what all historical trends say would have happened.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Tifa rallied what, 150 votes last round? Even if you hate rallies that's hardly worth getting pissed off about. That happens late in any close match.

It was probably well over 500, but who knows how many X got. It's really hard to tell.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

And then he defends the LOL X STATS anyway.

Like a clown.

He's not doing that, he's defending the people who used them to make a reasonable pick.

You are the least gracious winner in history and acting like this match was obvious is revisionist history ASF
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X's best time (like every Mega Man character) is the start of the match.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

So judging by the trends from Tifa/X, Tifa should let Luigi get closer over the next few hours before taking off with the European vote and never looking back.

For all the "DURRR RALLIES" my thread on r/FF only has 156 views. It didn't take off at all today, probably because of the timing.

This should be a more even match than Tifa/X. The swings won't nearly be as big, because Luigi isn't a complete lame duck in Europe
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Just under 10% of brackets had Auron winning that division and we know Geralt had a good deal more casual brackets picking him to win three matches than Auron did. This despite that the gurus gave Auron the second biggest chance of anyone in the entire bracket of winning their division. (Sephiroth being #1)

If the voters at large perceived anyone as having pulled a cool upset to get there, it probably wasn't Geralt.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Tifa rallied what, 150 votes last round? Even if you hate rallies that's hardly worth getting pissed off about. That happens late in any close match.

It was probably well over 500, but who knows how many X got. It's really hard to tell.

The Mega Man rally post had 150 upvotes. Even if you (stupidly) assume a 100% conversion rate, that isn't nearly as much as the several hundred upvotes across the r/FF and hentai crossposts
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TheOneAboveAll posted...

ExThaNemesis posted...

So judging by the trends from Tifa/X, Tifa should let Luigi get closer over the next few hours before taking off with the European vote and never looking back.

For all the "DURRR RALLIES" my thread on r/FF only has 156 views. It didn't take off at all today, probably because of the timing.

Are you really trying to extrapolate Luigi's trends from a Mega Man match?

Tifa's night vote gains won't be as drastic against Luigi as MMX's. But she's already in the lead, so...
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AxemRedRanger posted...

Just under 10% of brackets had Auron winning that division and we know Geralt had a good deal more casual brackets picking him to win three matches than Auron did. This despite that the gurus gave Auron the second biggest chance of anyone in the entire bracket of winning their division. (Sephiroth being #1)

If the voters at large perceived anyone as having pulled a cool upset to get there, it probably wasn't Geralt.

Well, I don't think it was a huge boost. Like I'm not saying Auron should've 60/40'd him there. Probably more like 55-56% instead of the 53% he got.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

The Mega Man rally post had 150 upvotes. Even if you (stupidly) assume a 100% conversion rate, that isn't nearly as much as the several hundred upvotes across the r/FF and hentai crossposts

My thread had like 19 upvotes by the end so you can't blame me for shit.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

The Mega Man rally post had 150 upvotes. Even if you (stupidly) assume a 100% conversion rate, that isn't nearly as much as the several hundred upvotes across the r/FF and hentai crossposts

My thread had like 19 upvotes by the end so you can't blame me for shit.

All 19 people who upvoted it went on to tell 10 of their friends each. Thats 190. Who knows how many of those people told their friends, likely another 500-1000.

Geralt also ended up getting a ~50 upvote rally yesterday. Wouldnt be surprised if that gave him an extra percent or two on Auron.
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Geralt getting 45% against Auron puts Hayabusa at 42.35% on Auron, which puts him right below Sub-Zero. That's prooobably more accurate.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

So judging by the trends from Tifa/X, Tifa should let Luigi get closer over the next few hours before taking off with the European vote and never looking back.

For all the "DURRR RALLIES" my thread on r/FF only has 156 views. It didn't take off at all today, probably because of the timing.

yeah but Luigi is not the same kind of super weak in the EU as X. thought it is in her favor by a fair amount its not the 63-68 she got on X.
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