Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1317

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Averia
12/07/18 9:23:36 PM
#452:


LusterSoldier posted...
Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Link vs. Cloud Strife
Registered Vote Result:
Link - 5849 (61.27%)
Cloud Strife - 3697 (38.73%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Link - 6065 (59.11%)
Cloud Strife - 4196 (40.89%)

This is the first time Link has done better with registered users in this contest, around 2% better compared to the anonymous users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub


I see even the registered users know that FFVII always win.
Finally, the underdog won !
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Haste_2
12/07/18 9:24:30 PM
#453:


So... which is more likely, Snake beating Samus or Samus beating Snake with 56+%?
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Advokaiser
12/07/18 9:25:13 PM
#454:


Maybe I'm wrong, but wasn't Mewtwo the actual #2 in 2013?
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LeonhartFour
12/07/18 9:25:55 PM
#455:


Haste_2 posted...
So... which is more likely, Snake beating Samus or Samus beating Snake with 56+%?


Snake > Samus

Advokaiser posted...
Maybe I'm wrong, but wasn't Mewtwo the actual #2 in 2013?


We're talking legit #2, not raw X-Stats
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garetha200
12/07/18 9:26:34 PM
#456:


Advokaiser posted...
Maybe I'm wrong, but wasn't Mewtwo the actual #2 in 2013?

In a round 1 1v1 match Mewtwo maybe gets 40% on Snake in 2013. He was only as strong as he was because of rallying.
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Xuxon
12/07/18 9:28:11 PM
#458:


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OrangeCrush980
12/07/18 9:28:30 PM
#459:


She come to town
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Advokaiser
12/07/18 9:28:42 PM
#460:


Haste_2 posted...
So... which is more likely, Snake beating Samus or Samus beating Snake with 56+%?


Snake is no pushover. He's just barely behind Zelda, remember? Mario beat Samus, and Mario is currently struggling to beat Zelda.

I see Snake's upset as not much of an upset now.
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Averia
12/07/18 9:28:42 PM
#461:


Maybe the Mario stuffing bots crashed.
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LeonhartFour
12/07/18 9:29:04 PM
#462:


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Yuri_LowelI
12/07/18 9:29:15 PM
#463:


INTERWEBUSER posted...
pjbasis posted...
INTERWEBUSER posted...
Drones defended the Wii U just as ferociously as any other Nintendo product.


Yeah but there were also a lot less drones

Ok. Maybe it was 98% of this site as opposed to the 99.9% now.


who the hell defended the wii U? Thought it was universally known to be an abomination
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red sox 777
12/07/18 9:30:25 PM
#464:


Breaking news. Mario finally caught stuffing. Turns out Mario's strength against Link has been his real strength since 2002. That's when the stuffers know they can't win and give up.
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ShatteredElysium
12/07/18 9:33:50 PM
#465:


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creativename
12/07/18 9:35:07 PM
#466:


Man this match has some weird rubber band trends.

ctesjbuvf posted...
I'd be very surprised if some of this isn't Zelda bandwagoning after getting to the semis, the insane board vote is a good indicator too. Mario probably beats her without too much trouble earlier in the contest. I really doubt Snake has a chance against Samus or Mario even if he might not look terrible going on.

Considering the savage beat downs Zelda was laying all contest, I think almost none of this is bandwagoning.

Shes just been a monster all contest. I see nothing that leads me to believe otherwise.
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Nelson_Mandela
12/07/18 9:36:53 PM
#467:


Is the registered voter rule skewing the results? Have to imagine non-registered casuals here for Smash U would be voting for Mario. What's the breakdown?
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creativename
12/07/18 9:39:16 PM
#468:


Yuri_LowelI posted...
red sox 777 posted...
And in retrospect, while I acknowledge Link probably would have lost both matches, I wish we had gotten Link vs. L-Block and Link vs. Draven 1v1 at the end of those contests.


I wanted Link vs Draven now

I mean...Can we not get that as a Bonus Poll? Just to see Link get like 95% would be utterly hilarious.

I was thinking Link would have a hard time getting 95% on anybody due to anti-votes.

But I guess Draven might get many of those anti-voters to anti-vote him even moreso.
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Team Rocket Elite
12/07/18 9:39:33 PM
#469:


Doubling the votes from registered users has a minor effect on the overall result. It usually causes a difference of less than 1 percentage point.
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LusterSoldier
12/07/18 9:42:52 PM
#470:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Is the registered voter rule skewing the results? Have to imagine non-registered casuals here for Smash U would be voting for Mario. What's the breakdown?


As of 9:40 PM:

Zelda has 50.40% with registered users and 51.79% with anonymous users.
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ShatteredElysium
12/07/18 9:45:40 PM
#471:


How do you check that?
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Rexxar500
12/07/18 9:45:47 PM
#472:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
Doubling the votes from registered users has a minor effect on the overall result. It usually causes a difference of less than 1 percentage point.

Minor is relative. Multiple matches have been won by 1 percentage or less.
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creativename
12/07/18 9:51:38 PM
#473:


LusterSoldier posted...
@creativename

Okay, I think I have all of the match pictures for every match since the contest resumed after the Thanksgiving break.

I cannot fit all of the match picture URLs into a single post, but you can find all of them right here:

https://pastebin.com/GBMSd1e6

Thanks!!
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Kyle Bowen
12/07/18 9:52:02 PM
#474:


Squall doesnt look so bad.
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LusterSoldier
12/07/18 9:52:48 PM
#475:


ShatteredElysium posted...
How do you check that?


I obtain the raw vote totals from the source code of this page:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/map?id=7379

The raw vote totals are located under var pollChart_total and provides the full history of the poll's raw votes in 5 minute updates starting from 7:05 PM. The large numbers shown inside of the quotation marks are Unix timestamps, and they can be converted into human readable timestamps by inputting them onto a website such as this:

https://www.epochconverter.com/

It should be noted that all of the Unix timestamps have to be adjusted forwards by 5 minutes. Since I want to find the vote totals for the 9:40 PM update, I have to find the Unix timestamp that corresponds to 9:35 PM in tonight's match, which would be 1544236500000. Then I can input the raw vote totals into a spreadsheet and obtain the actual vote totals for 9:40 PM from the updater and calculate the registered/anonymous results.
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Not_Wylvane
12/07/18 9:57:04 PM
#476:


This is amazing.

We're going to have Link/Zelda for the Winner's Bracket Final, and it's possible Zelda may beat the winner of Cloud/Mario and have a Link/Zelda true final.

It's an insane unpredictable run that wasn't caused by rallies for once, this is the kind of shit that makes these contests so damn special after all these years.
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LeonhartFour
12/07/18 9:57:30 PM
#477:


Link 50.00%
Cloud Strife 39.48%
*Crono 35.54%
Crono 34.17%
Bowser 32.07%
Pikachu 31.59%
Mega Man 31.52%
Alucard 31.28%
Kirby 29.59%
Pokemon Trainer Red 28.89%
Yoshi 28.56%
Sora 28.37%
Charizard 27.87%
Big Boss 27.64%
Zero 27.45%
Princess Peach 27.02%
2B 26.81%
Terra Branford 26.32%
Crash Bandicoot 26.05%
Kefka 25.37%
Yuna 25.26%
Ness 24.82%
Knuckles the Echidna 24.07%
Ridley 23.95%
Cecil Harvey 23.87%
Shadow the Hedgehog 23.20%
Kratos 23.12%
Wario 21.82%
Scorpion 21.22%
Zidane Tribal 20.80%
Bomberman 20.39%
Ganondorf 20.36%
L-Block 20.20%
Vivi 19.56%
Phoenix Wright 18.76%
Ike 18.51%
Dante 17.75%
Donkey Kong 17.62%
Isaac 17.58%
Ryo Hazuki 17.54%
Master Hand 17.03%
Velvet Crowe 16.77%
Chun-Li 16.73%
Chris Redfield 16.16%
Kazuma Kiryu 15.95%
Leon Kennedy 15.62%
Monika 15.46%
Tidus 15.17%
Guile 15.07%
Shantae 14.70%
Spyro the Dragon 14.67%
Gordon Freeman 14.50%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 14.46%
Neptune 14.26%
Primrose 14.17%
Joel 13.94%
Godot 13.87%
James Sunderland 13.07%
Estelle Bright 12.44%
James Marston 12.40%
Lightning 12.21%
Cayde-6 11.91%
Cuphead 10.09%
Yu Narukami 9.83%
Dragonborn 9.78%
Aya Brea 9.61%
Neku Sakuraba 8.71%
Victor Sullivan 7.77%
Chloe Price 6.30%

The asterisk is Crono's value being derived through comparisons of Cloud/Alucard and Alucard/Bowser since it makes him look a little better that way.

Mega Man/Crono will hopefully help us get a lot of this straightened out.
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SlugSh0t
12/07/18 10:37:18 PM
#478:


Sonic is probably > MM and crono now.
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WarThaNemesis2
12/07/18 10:41:06 PM
#479:


What does Mega Man need on Crono for...

fuck, I don't know, Dante = Peach?
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NeoElfboy
12/07/18 10:41:22 PM
#480:


Is there a reason we can't adjust Ganondorf's division through Mega Man now? It might still be slightly underrated due to the sprite match's effects, but at least it gives us a good idea, which deriving through Link does not.
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LeonhartFour
12/07/18 10:43:18 PM
#481:


NeoElfboy posted...
Is there a reason we can't adjust Ganondorf's division through Mega Man now? It might still be slightly underrated due to the sprite match's effects, but at least it gives us a good idea, which deriving through Link does not.


I mean I've already made those stats

I'll probably add them into the mix after Mega Man/Crono
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WarThaNemesis2
12/07/18 10:44:32 PM
#482:


Okay time to deploy the nuclear option.

Leon based on those stats, how does Zelda/Link go if Draven = Chloe Price?
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KamikazePotato
12/07/18 10:44:54 PM
#483:


Ganondorf is going to be very underrated adjusting through Mega Man as well.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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LeonhartFour
12/07/18 10:46:23 PM
#484:


WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Okay time to deploy the nuclear option.

Leon based on those stats, how does Zelda/Link go if Draven = Chloe Price?


Currently, Link wins with 56.91%

yes raw Chloe truly is that weak

(as she should be)
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red sox 777
12/07/18 10:50:13 PM
#485:


35% for Crono against Link is not bad. He only got 37% in 2004, at his peak. Link had been on the decline for years before this contest, so it's easy to forget how dominant he can be, but with Zelda beating Mario Link may very well be at an all-time high himself. I think, 44% is definitely the best result Crono would have gotten against Cloud in any year.
---
September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
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WarThaNemesis2
12/07/18 10:50:35 PM
#486:


LeonhartFour posted...
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Okay time to deploy the nuclear option.

Leon based on those stats, how does Zelda/Link go if Draven = Chloe Price?


Currently, Link wins with 56.91%

yes raw Chloe truly is that weak

(as she should be)


That's probably not that far off from where Zelda actually is (before she rSFFs Link and wins, of course).
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red sox 777
12/07/18 11:01:52 PM
#487:


Link
Zelda
Cloud
Mario
Megaman
Crono
Snake
Samus

For all the Noble Nine breaking they still wound up with 7 out of the last 8 spots.
---
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Dfy556
12/07/18 11:02:06 PM
#488:


Wow, Zelda beating Mario
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Dfy556
12/07/18 11:06:26 PM
#489:


Not_Wylvane posted...
This is amazing.

We're going to have Link/Zelda for the Winner's Bracket Final, and it's possible Zelda may beat the winner of Cloud/Mario and have a Link/Zelda true final.

It's an insane unpredictable run that wasn't caused by rallies for once, this is the kind of shit that makes these contests so damn special after all these years.


Two characters from the same franchise in the grand finals is really bad. I mean that's just lame.
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INTERWEBUSER
12/07/18 11:10:37 PM
#491:


Dfy556 posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
This is amazing.

We're going to have Link/Zelda for the Winner's Bracket Final, and it's possible Zelda may beat the winner of Cloud/Mario and have a Link/Zelda true final.

It's an insane unpredictable run that wasn't caused by rallies for once, this is the kind of shit that makes these contests so damn special after all these years.


Two characters from the same franchise in the grand finals is really bad. I mean that's just lame.

It is to anyone with common sense, but the drones love it.
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MetalmindStats
12/07/18 11:11:30 PM
#492:


red sox 777 posted...
I think, 44% is definitely the best result Crono would have gotten against Cloud in any year.

2013 Crono would have at least broken 45% on 2013 Cloud.
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red sox 777
12/07/18 11:13:38 PM
#493:


MetalmindStats posted...
red sox 777 posted...
I think, 44% is definitely the best result Crono would have gotten against Cloud in any year.

2013 Crono would have at least broken 45% on 2013 Cloud.


Yeah, I tend to block out 2013 from my mind except for the Link/Draven stuff. 3-ways proved to be worse than 4-ways.
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AlecTrevelyan006
12/08/18 12:11:22 AM
#494:


Go chaos.
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pjbasis
12/08/18 12:23:19 AM
#495:


LeonhartFour posted...
Sora 28.37%
Charizard 27.87%


KH3 boost was real!
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pronouncemyname
12/08/18 12:27:24 AM
#496:


LeonhartFour posted...

Shantae 14.70%
Spyro the Dragon 14.67%


Okay.
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Calintares
12/08/18 1:01:53 AM
#497:


Dfy556 posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
This is amazing.

We're going to have Link/Zelda for the Winner's Bracket Final, and it's possible Zelda may beat the winner of Cloud/Mario and have a Link/Zelda true final.

It's an insane unpredictable run that wasn't caused by rallies for once, this is the kind of shit that makes these contests so damn special after all these years.


Two characters from the same franchise in the grand finals is really bad. I mean that's just lame.


2003 says hi
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XIII_rocks
12/08/18 1:18:36 AM
#498:


Dfy556 posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
This is amazing.

We're going to have Link/Zelda for the Winner's Bracket Final, and it's possible Zelda may beat the winner of Cloud/Mario and have a Link/Zelda true final.

It's an insane unpredictable run that wasn't caused by rallies for once, this is the kind of shit that makes these contests so damn special after all these years.


Two characters from the same franchise in the grand finals is really bad. I mean that's just lame.


I think for the future of the contests you're probably right, but if you just take it as one individual surprising run, it's great. We don't know exactly what will happen in future character battles and if this represents a permanent shift towards Zelda-as-#2.
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raytan7585
12/08/18 1:32:29 AM
#499:


Close match.
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raytan7585
12/08/18 1:32:47 AM
#500:


But Mario needs more shrooms.
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