Board 8 > College Football Ladder Contest 2018: Week 15 and beyond!

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TsunamiXXVIII
12/06/18 11:49:27 PM
#1:


Yeah, we're just going to put the bowl season in with the Week 15 topic.

Also, I accidentally let the topic purge. I recorded everyone's picks, but anyone who didn't make a pick, I'm working from memory on where they were.

Rules
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- The bowl season will be broken up into groups. Pick all games against the spread. You must get greater than 50% correct to advance a level, so if you get one push, you need more than half of the remaining games correct (groups will normally be an odd number of games.)

Level 7
jcgamer107

Level 6
KCF0107
Paratroopa1
TsunamiXXVIII
turbopuns2

Level 5
ShatteredElysium
5tarscream

Week 15 Games:
Maine (+7) @ Weber State (Friday Night)
Colgate (+25.5) @ North Dakota State
South Dakota State (-7.5) @ Kennesaw State
Army (-7) vs. Navy (Philadelphia, PA)
UC Davis (+9) @ Eastern Washington
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/06/18 11:50:19 PM
#2:


Week 15:

Weber State -7
Colgate +25.5
South Dakota State -7.5
Army -7
Eastern Washington -9
---
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5tarscream
12/07/18 12:10:36 AM
#3:


Weber State (-7)
Colgate (+25.5)
South Dakota State (-7.5)
Army (-7)
Eastern Washington (-9)
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KCF0107
12/07/18 4:24:31 PM
#4:


Maine +7
ND State -25.5
Kennesaw State +7.5
Army -7
UC Davis +9
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Paratroopa1
12/08/18 2:05:34 AM
#5:


Weber State (-7)
Colgate (+25.5)
Kennesaw State (+7)
Navy (+7)
Eastern Washington (-9)

I don't really know the FCS very well

I know that Colgate has a good defense
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KCF0107
12/08/18 3:46:53 PM
#6:


Good thing that I started 2-0. I like my odds that at least one of these other three will end in my favor.
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jcgamer107
12/08/18 3:55:31 PM
#7:


crap i just saw this
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jcgamer107
12/08/18 6:23:34 PM
#8:


Well Army/Navy's gonna push and I know nothing about FCS so that's fine
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/08/18 6:24:34 PM
#9:


jcgamer107 posted...
crap i just saw this


Yeah, sorry, I got it up later than I should have.
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KCF0107
12/08/18 6:45:39 PM
#10:


Well I spoke too soon. I really need UC Davis to pull through.
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Paratroopa1
12/08/18 7:21:54 PM
#11:


0 for 4, baby. ready to get back to making picks that aren't random after like 2 months off
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KCF0107
12/09/18 2:31:46 AM
#12:


I think that I was the only one to pass this week
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/10/18 6:25:07 PM
#13:


Bump
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jcgamer107
12/11/18 10:46:59 PM
#14:


up
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/12/18 8:13:04 PM
#15:


Oh right I was supposed to put up the lines today. Eh, I'll get to it later.
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/12/18 10:49:23 PM
#16:


Bowl Season Part 1

Celebration Bowl: Alcorn State +8 vs. North Carolina A&T
Cure Bowl: Tulane -3.5 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas +7.5 vs. Utah State
Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State +4.5 vs. Fresno State
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern +2.5 vs. Eastern Michigan
New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee State +6.5 vs. Appalachian State
Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois +2.5 vs. UAB
---
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/12/18 10:50:51 PM
#17:


Alcorn State +8
Tulane -3.5
North Texas +7.5
Arizona State +4.5
Georgia Southern +2.5
Appalachian State -6.5
UAB -2.5
---
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Paratroopa1
12/12/18 11:05:49 PM
#18:


Alcorn State +8
Tulane -3.5
North Texas +7.5
Fresno State -4.5
Georgia Southern +2.5
Middle Tennessee State +6.5
Northern Illinois +2.5

I hate picking the dang celebration bowl
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jcgamer107
12/13/18 5:41:17 AM
#19:


North Carolina A&T -8
Tulane -3.5
Utah State -7.5
Arizona State +4.5
Eastern Michigan -2.5
Appalachian State -6.5
Northern Illinois +2.5

Paratroopa1 posted...
I hate picking the dang celebration bowl

^
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KCF0107
12/14/18 1:32:11 AM
#20:


I will do this tomorrow
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KCF0107
12/14/18 10:10:58 AM
#21:


Level 7

Celebration Bowl: Alcorn State (+8)
Cure Bowl: Tulane (-3.5)
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas (+7.5)
Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State (-4.5)
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern (+2.5)
New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State (-6.5)
Boca Raton Bowl: UAB (-2.5)
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KCF0107
12/15/18 1:43:13 AM
#22:


bumpsy daisy
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KCF0107
12/15/18 11:05:18 AM
#23:


Bump
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jcgamer107
12/15/18 8:49:06 PM
#24:


Well I need App St to cover and NIU to beat the spread or I'm gonna get passed
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Paratroopa1
12/15/18 9:12:41 PM
#25:


Got 4 of my first 5 so that's one level down
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Paratroopa1
12/16/18 12:31:44 AM
#26:


I should have just trusted Utah State and App State to be the obviously good teams that they are but I just wasn't able to
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Paratroopa1
12/16/18 12:32:31 AM
#27:


Paratroopa1 posted...
I should have just trusted Utah State and App State to be the obviously good teams that they are but I just wasn't able to

I think I might be making this mistake about Northern Illinois too but I'm not sure. NIU's resume just seems better than UAB's
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KCF0107
12/16/18 6:32:36 PM
#28:


Bowl season starts off being kind to me!
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/17/18 3:38:23 PM
#29:


Ack. I accidentally put the wrong line for the Camellia Bowl; Georgia Southern was the favorite, which means that EMU actually covered. While I doubt that such a tight line would cause anyone to flip their prediction (i.e. I expect most people would pick the same thing they would if picking straight-up), I will honor picks for either side as being correct.
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Wait, I really left BKSheikah in my sig all the way until Advokaiser dethroned him as reigning Guru champion? I need to come here more often.
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/17/18 5:30:12 PM
#30:


Oh, right, part 2 would start...Wednesday, not tomorrow. There's no bowl game tonight, I guess because Mondays are considered an NFL day just like Sundays.

Part 2 lines:

Frisco Bowl: Ohio -2.5 vs. San Diego State
Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall -3 @ South Florida
Bahamas Bowl: Florida International +6 vs. Toledo
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: BYU -12.5 vs. Western Michigan
Birmingham Bowl: Wake Forest +3.5 vs. Memphis
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston +3.5 vs. Army
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo -2 vs. Troy
---
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Paratroopa1
12/17/18 6:09:32 PM
#31:


TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Ack. I accidentally put the wrong line for the Camellia Bowl; Georgia Southern was the favorite, which means that EMU actually covered. While I doubt that such a tight line would cause anyone to flip their prediction (i.e. I expect most people would pick the same thing they would if picking straight-up), I will honor picks for either side as being correct.

You know, I actually almost posted something to the effect of "I'm really surprised that Georgia Southern is the underdog, my intuition tells me they should be favored"

That explains that
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jcgamer107
12/17/18 8:01:10 PM
#32:


Hooray then I passed
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5tarscream
12/17/18 8:05:03 PM
#33:


Fuck. I missed this and if UAB pass I'd have advanced.
That's twice I've missed advancing but this one is on me.

Part 2 lines:

Frisco Bowl: Ohio
Gasparilla Bowl: South Florida
Bahamas Bowl: Toledo
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: BYU
Birmingham Bowl: Memphis
Armed Forces Bowl: Army
Dollar General Bowl: Troy
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Paratroopa1
12/17/18 8:15:37 PM
#34:


San Diego State +2.5
Marshall -3
Florida International +6
Western Michigan +12.5
Memphis -3.5
Houston +3.5
Buffalo -2

I was a little surprised that SDSU was the underdog but Ohio had a really good run at the end of the season so it makes sense.

My instincts tell me it's weird that Marshall is favored over USF but USF really just seems to suck. I pegged them as a paper tiger pretty good when they were 7-0 (I'm still salty about not getting that Tulsa upset correct).

I just went with the property of Miami transivity for FIU/Toledo.

BYU is like sort of quietly like a middling P5 team in quality but I don't believe in their ability to blow someone out, even if it's WMU who might be the weakest bowl team in the field.

Houston over Army is a pure hate pick. Fuck Army.
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Paratroopa1
12/17/18 8:16:01 PM
#35:


Wow almost all of my picks were different from starscream's
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5tarscream
12/17/18 9:55:15 PM
#36:


That's probably a good sign for you haha
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KCF0107
12/18/18 1:18:21 AM
#37:


Level 8

San Diego State (+2.5)
Marshall (-3)
Toledo (-6)
Western Michigan (+12.5)
Memphis (-3.5)
Army (-3.5)
Troy (+2)
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KCF0107
12/18/18 11:21:10 PM
#38:


bump
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/19/18 2:49:13 PM
#39:


Frisco Bowl: Ohio -2.5
Gasparilla Bowl: USF +3
Bahamas Bowl: FIU +6
Potato Bowl: Western Michigan +12.5
Birmingham Bowl: Memphis -3.5
Armed Forces Bowl: Army -3.5
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo -2

Was tempted to take SDSU even though I'm pretty sure I have Ohio in Bowl Mania, because that should be a close game and I could definitely see it being similar to the Camellia Bowl. And yeah, even with how USF fell apart late, it seems weird that they're underdogs in what amounts to a home game (technically it's at Tropicana Field, but come on, it's still Tampa-St. Pete.)
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jcgamer107
12/19/18 6:51:30 PM
#40:


So I think I'm on Level 8 now? Good thing the EMU game counted for me, NIU sucked a big one.

Frisco Bowl: Ohio -2.5
Gasparilla Bowl: South Florida +3
Bahamas Bowl: Florida International +6
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan +12.5
Birmingham Bowl: Wake Forest +3.5
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston +3.5
Dollar General Bowl: Troy +2

I like the underdogs apparently. That might not work out for me.
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KCF0107
12/20/18 5:33:49 PM
#41:


Well I started off on the wrong foot
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KCF0107
12/21/18 2:47:02 PM
#42:


Redemption last night but things aren't looking so hot today
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/21/18 7:46:11 PM
#43:


Well since the break is just a little bit displaced, I've gotta get part 3 up now.

Part 3:

Hawai'i Bowl: Louisiana Tech +1 @ Hawai'i
First Responder Bowl: Boston College +2 vs. Boise State
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota +5.5 vs. Georgia Tech
Cheez-It Bowl: TCU +1 vs. California
Independence Bowl: Duke +3.5 vs. Temple
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami-FL -3 vs. Wisconsin
Texas Bowl: Vanderbilt -4 vs. Baylor

Ah, finally, some interesting storylines! We have a pair of Group of Five teams favored over Power 5 teams. We have two teams that started the year in the Top 10 that fell all the way to 7-5. We have another pair of teams that had both been ranked early in the season before falling flat on their faces, one of which didn't even have the benefit of being in the preseason rankings! Which is also a game in which the opening line and the current line have different favorites. And then we have the Texas Bowl, pitting against each other two teams that I believe were projected to miss out on bowl season right up to the point that they won their regular season finales to improve to 6-6. (Vandy might have been considered once they beat Ole Miss to get to 5-6, if only because they would be at home against fellow 5-6 Tennessee.)
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/21/18 7:47:28 PM
#44:


Part 3

Hawai'i -1
Boston College +2
Minnesota +5.5
TCU +1
Temple -3.5
Wisconsin +3
Baylor +4
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Paratroopa1
12/21/18 7:49:50 PM
#45:


My WMU pick looked great then fell apart unbelievably fast, holy fuck
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KCF0107
12/22/18 12:21:41 AM
#46:


I need to hit on my final three to pass the second slate of bowl games
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Paratroopa1
12/22/18 1:54:19 AM
#47:


I'm 2 for 4; "USF sucks" and "just pick the team that did better against Miami" both wound up being correct lines of logic
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KCF0107
12/22/18 3:53:17 AM
#48:


Part 3:

Hawaii -1
Boise St -2
Minnesota +5.5
TCU +1
Temple -3.5
Wisconsin +3
Baylor +4
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Paratroopa1
12/22/18 4:06:03 AM
#49:


Hawai'i -1
Boston College +2
Minnesota +5.5
California -1
Duke +3.5
Wisconsin +3
Vanderbilt -4

I really don't trust Boise State, they got blown the fuck out by Oklahoma State and even though that game was on the road I think they're FRAUDS

Picking Minnesota is a coinflip, half the time they're genuinely good and half the time they're Rutgers-tier. If you predict this game pretending you have any idea what's going to happen you're a FOOL

I'm really worried that I'm doing the same thing I do every year where I put too much faith in the Pac-12 but I genuinely believe they have favorable matchups in most of their bowls, aside from Fresno/ASU which I already predicted correctly against ASU. Cal's not really that bad? TCU lost to Kansas. TCU lost to Kansas. TCU lost to Kansas.

Nobody talked about Duke losing 59-7 to Wake Forest, but it was literally one of the strangest blowouts in college football history. You might think I'm exaggerating but Duke was favored in that game. I'm going to cross my fingers that that was a fluke because Duke's resume is actually really good otherwise - I had them ranked in the top 25 nearly all year because of a nonconference where they beat Army, NW, and Baylor. They deserve more credit than they received UNTIL they got blown out 59-7 by Wake Forest which I mean what the fuck

Miami/Wisconsin is a dumb tossup I can't possibly give a shit about

Vanderbilt being favored by 4 points sure is weird but uh wow Baylor sure did just barely scrape out 6-6.
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jcgamer107
12/22/18 2:31:36 PM
#50:


Hawai'i Bowl: Hawai'i -1
First Responder Bowl: Boise State -2
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota +5.5
Cheez-It Bowl: TCU +1
Independence Bowl: Duke +3.5
Pinstripe Bowl: Wisconsin +3
Texas Bowl: Vanderbilt -4
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