Board 8 > Movie and Box Office Topic: Prepping for Endgame

(+) Yeah! (+)

I figured it was time to resuscitate this topic, but I'm going to try and make it more inclusive for actual film discussion too. Spoilers are welcome, but tag them.

It's time to start anticipating what might well be the biggest opening weekend of all time. There are some 300 mil estimates, but most seem to expect 270 mil.

I'm really hoping this movie makes a run on the Avatar worldwide number, but the odds of that are pretty damn slim.

Any predictions? When do you plan to see Avengers?
---

Id just like to take a minute to talk about how The Last Jedi has been unfairly characterized as a bad movie.
---

Espeon posted...

Id just like to take a minute to talk about how The Last Jedi has been unfairly characterized as a bad movie.

I don't actually think I know what you think of TLJ!
---

It's my brother's birthday that day so probably opening day! If not, hopefully the day after.
---

Snake5555555555 posted...

It's my brother's birthday that day so probably opening day! If not, hopefully the day after.

Normally Marvel movies come out a week or two later, so I am sad this one doesn't come out for my birthday.
---

Maybe it's time I actually try to watch these movies
---

They're fun diversions if nothing else.
---

It should be very interesting seeing Endgame's numbers, to say the least. The worldwide opening weekend is going to be especially explosive, with simultaneous openings everywhere except Russia. I absolutely think Endgame *can* challenge Avatar, and stranger things have happened at the box office, but it's not exactly probable. That's not least because huge presales don't necessarily translate one-to-one to improvement over opening weekends, let alone an entire run. I'll post a final prediction in this topic this upcoming Thursday.

Detective Pikachu should be another fun one to watch, just because predictions for it are so all over the place that many people are going to be wrong practically regardless of what it makes. Currently, I'm going to predict that it makes about $800 million worldwide, but that could go up or down in these next three weeks.
---

If the US pulls 300 mil for Detective Pikachu, which I saw as a prediction, 800 is a shoo-in. But I don't k ow how it plays against Avengers.
---

How many screens do you think are going to be perfectly synced?
---

Opening night I mean.
---

scarletspeed7 posted...

If the US pulls 300 mil for Detective Pikachu, which I saw as a prediction, 800 is a shoo-in. But I don't k ow how it plays against Avengers.

Currently, the industry's domestic predictions are a $50 million opening weekend from tracking, and $250 million total from Box Office Pro, which does their own long-range forecasts. Some of the people who are particularly high on its potential like to point to fellow nostalgia-harnesser Jurassic World as an example of such sources being totally off, but Jurassic World was a particularly extreme case.

For the reasoning behind my current prediction, there is room to play against Endgame and even the likes of Aladdin, but not a ton of it. In addition, it doesn't seem like the hype (past that first trailer) has extended too much beyond the internet, though that might just be my skewed perspective. International box office should be solid, but I'm actually thinking lower than most people. 300 / 500 sounds about right to me given how Pokmon is a rather weaker brand outside North America and Japan, the latter of which may not take to this Hollywoodized version. A few weeks back, I was thinking it could hit $1 billion, but I don't think the hype has quite built in the way it should have for such a lofty prediction.

Also as far as predictions go, it really depends on which source you're drawing from. Some people have unironically touted as much as $1.5-2 billion as likely, thus my mention of the sheer variability.
---

I REALLY don't think it's going to top a billion. It would be really interesting to see something new (relative to major movie franchises) blow into town while up against to Disney tentpole films and just knock it down, but I feel like 300 is the slightly generous number. And it's impressive, again, because it's sitting right there in between Avengers and Aladdin, both of which I think cater to the same demos as Pikachu.

I don't know how a worldwide market plays with three movies of that nature at all. That's a pretty new situation.
---

scarletspeed7 posted...

I REALLY don't think it's going to top a billion. It would be really interesting to see something new (relative to major movie franchises) blow into town while up against to Disney tentpole films and just knock it down, but I feel like 300 is the slightly generous number. And it's impressive, again, because it's sitting right there in between Avengers and Aladdin, both of which I think cater to the same demos as Pikachu.

I don't know how a worldwide market plays with three movies of that nature at all. That's a pretty new situation.

Yep, even $800 million would be spectacularly impressive for Detective Pikachu. Also, I think the closest comparison to this May's madhouse worldwide scheduling would be 2013, coincidentally the last year the days of the week lined up.

Iron Man 3 opened on May 3 in North America, and a week earlier in most of the rest of the world, and grossed $1.21 billion worldwide. Star Trek Into Darkness opened on May 16 in North America, and a week earlier in parts of the world, and finished with $467 million. Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III both opened against each other over Memorial Day weekend. The former hit most of the rest of the world day-and-date and made $789 million, while the latter opened a week later in most other regions and grossed $362 million, saved by the international box office. Epic and The Great Gatsby were also in worldwide play at that time, but neither really catered to the same audiences as the aforementioned four.
---

Oh, good example. All I could think of was the weekend where Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks all opened at the same time. I think it ended up being one of the biggest weekends in history, and somehow they didn't overlap audiences (at least that we know of). So I guess the potential is there. It was a Christmas weekend, I believe, so that might explain people returning multiple times to the theaters.

Also, it's not really accounting for worldwide numbers because the worldwide market didn't start blowing open until early-mid 2010s. I think Avatar and Dark Knight really launched it, though.
---

scarletspeed7 posted...

Oh, good example. All I could think of was the weekend where Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks all opened at the same time. I think it ended up being one of the biggest weekends in history, and somehow they didn't overlap audiences (at least that we know of). So I guess the potential is there. It was a Christmas weekend, I believe, so that might explain people returning multiple times to the theaters.

Also, it's not really accounting for worldwide numbers because the worldwide market didn't start blowing open until early-mid 2010s. I think Avatar and Dark Knight really launched it, though.

Technically, Avatar opened a week earlier, but yes, that weekend was anchored by Christmas, thus why there was abundant space for all three movies to succeed at the same time, ultimately becoming the highest-grossing weekend ever at the time. Outside of North America, Sherlock Holmes didn't open in most places over Christmas 2009, just leaving the other two movies, with their mostly different audiences. This May is a lot like May 2013 in that there's no hugely important holidays in North America or the major international markets to propel the likes of Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla to extra numbers.

The way I like to think of the trajectory of international box office is this: Jurassic Park invented the international box office as something more relevant than essentially just another ancillary market (not that movies couldn't succeed internationally before, but it represented a sea change in tailoring releasing and promotion strategies). Titanic demonstrated the potential of stories that really resonate to break all the international records, and with market growth in now-established countries such as Australia through the 90s, it was probably the transition point when it started becoming commonplace for blockbusters to exceed 50% of their worldwide box office outside of North America. Avatar, and the 3D resurgence that came with it, was the revolutionary difference-maker that rendered international box office outright more important than North American box office for blockbusters - particularly with its $200 million in China, where no previous Hollywood movie had even made $50 million. I don't think The Dark Knight was particularly important or influential outside of North America in box office terms, though. It essentially played as just another blockbuster internationally, finishing with less than 50% of its worldwide gross outside of North America. It also barely took 2008's international title, just $200,000 ahead of Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and only $4 million above Mamma Mia!, of all things.
---

Dark Knight I point out because it supposedly did the biggest DVD sales overseas of a movie at that point. And then you have Marvel coming in afterwards and marketing much harder overseas - mix that with Disney's bigger animation pushes, and it normalized the general blockbuster market as an international staple. Now, movies are virtually identical on year-end domestic and international lists with one or two exceptions each year. Prior to 2008, it was very slowly trending that way. After 2008, it rapidly explodes.
---

scarletspeed7 posted...

Dark Knight I point out because it supposedly did the biggest DVD sales overseas of a movie at that point. And then you have Marvel coming in afterwards and marketing much harder overseas - mix that with Disney's bigger animation pushes, and it normalized the general blockbuster market as an international staple. Now, movies are virtually identical on year-end domestic and international lists with one or two exceptions each year. Prior to 2008, it was very slowly trending that way. After 2008, it rapidly explodes.

Yeah, that's fair. I don't generally consider such ancillary market info when reckoning box office trends because it's much more difficult to pin down than box office info, but that's certainly an important piece of the puzzle.
---

Yeah, I wouldn't normally play it up, but certain major differences in success are things I pay attention to. Sort of like how Friends and The Office remain in the top ten most streamed shows still; I pay attention to odd things like that.
---

I'm gonna watch Endgame on the 25th! Would have gone on the premiere on the 24th but I had another thing for that day. Going solo first since tickets are scarce as they are.
---

Awesome! I'm going Sunday.
---

Nice! I hope people won't be too wild with the spoilers.

Also my dad wants to watch it on a 3D+4D theatre, which we do have. The thing is he hasn't watched any of the previous Marvel movies as far as I remember and not even Infinity Wars so I don't know if he'll be able to enjoy it fully.
---

As for me personally I haven't watched Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp. Are they mandatory?
---

Raka_Putra posted...

As for me personally I haven't watched Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp. Are they mandatory?

Minus the post credits scene of AM&W nah.

They're both pretty good though.
---

Homecoming is great and Ant-Man and the Wasp is a lot of fun imo, not mandatory but I would watch

am i delusional if i think I'll be able to watch endgame relatively easily if i skip a morning of work during the first week of release?
---

Apologies in advance for hijacking this topic (I hope you all believe that I'm not trolling), but I want to ask the MCU fans for their opinions.

Until recently, the only MCU movie I had seen was Black Panther, which I thought was fun in theaters but have had no desire to rewatch. A couple weeks ago, I watched the first Iron Man and honestly didn't care for it. A few years ago, I tried to sit through GotG and quit 20 minutes in, but in that film's defense, I was watching with hyperactive little cousins and not paying too much attention.

I know my sample size is pretty paltry, but would it be kiiiiiiinda reasonable at this point to just assume these movies aren't for me? My brother told me he really liked Infinity War despite only seeing a couple of the earlier films... but I'm too OCD about this stuff to do that. In order to reach Infinity War, I gotta watch all ~18 movies. I want to power through them, partly because they have become so culturally significant and partly so I don't skip something excellent, but considering comedy may be my least favorite genre (weird I know) and the MCU seems steeped in comedy, I may just hate the long ride.

Also, Hulk and Iron Man 2 would be next up, and everyone says those are the shits
---

Going in dehydrated so no chance of me having to go to the bathroom during the movie.
---

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Apologies in advance for hijacking this topic (I hope you all believe that I'm not trolling), but I want to ask the MCU fans for their opinions.

Until recently, the only MCU movie I had seen was Black Panther, which I thought was fun in theaters but have had no desire to rewatch. A couple weeks ago, I watched the first Iron Man and honestly didn't care for it. A few years ago, I tried to sit through GotG and quit 20 minutes in, but in that film's defense, I was watching with hyperactive little cousins and not paying too much attention.

I know my sample size is pretty paltry, but would it be kiiiiiiinda reasonable at this point to just assume these movies aren't for me? My brother told me he really liked Infinity War despite only seeing a couple of the earlier films... but I'm too OCD about this stuff to do that. In order to reach Infinity War, I gotta watch all ~18 movies. I want to power through them, partly because they have become so culturally significant and partly so I don't skip something excellent, but considering comedy may be my least favorite genre (weird I know) and the MCU seems steeped in comedy, I may just hate the long ride.

What kind of movies do you generally like? If you're a fan of fun action movies it's not hard to also enjoy the Marvel movies even if you're not that into their specific format.

Most people like the first Iron Man, but I honestly don't think it's that special. If you don't like comedy movies, then the Iron Man series (which heavily feature a snarky, sarcastic lead) and the GotG series (which is much more comedic than even the other MCU films) really won't fit your taste. I would try the Captain America movies instead and if you don't like them (Winter Soldier is amazing, imo) then maybe you can confirm that it's not for you.

I would probably advise against watching everything to catch up since that might burn you out of them. While you'll miss out on a lot of plot points, I think it would be better to cherry pick what you watch to find what you'll enjoy, and if you end up liking them then you can go back and watch others, hopefully being able to get into them more because of the connections to the other films. Might be a weird way to go through them, but I think that's better than forcing yourself to watch them and dropping the whole thing because of a weak entry.

EDIT:

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Also, Hulk and Iron Man 2 would be next up, and everyone says those are the s***s

Also, I read this wrong. I thought it said "everyone says those are shit", which I wouldn't really disagree with. I actually never watched Hulk (no one ever talks about it though), but Iron Man 2 was pretty disappointing.
---

Grand Kirby posted...

What kind of movies do you generally like?

Honestly, most anything, but I probably tune out and ignore comedies most of all. This is especially true for modern comedies that try to emulate "internet humor" and, for me at least, almost always fail.

Grand Kirby posted...

Also, I read this wrong. I thought it said "everyone says those are shit", which I wouldn't really disagree with. I actually never watched Hulk (no one ever talks about it though), but Iron Man 2 was pretty disappointing.

Sorry, that is actually what I meant. From the bits and pieces I've picked up, Hulk and IM2 seem to be the least regarded. I think you're right that I may enjoy the Cap movies more; I've heard so many good things about Winter Soldier.
---

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Grand Kirby posted...

What kind of movies do you generally like?

Honestly, most anything, but I probably tune out and ignore comedies most of all. This is especially true for modern comedies that try to emulate "internet humor" and, for me at least, almost always fail.

Grand Kirby posted...

Also, I read this wrong. I thought it said "everyone says those are shit", which I wouldn't really disagree with. I actually never watched Hulk (no one ever talks about it though), but Iron Man 2 was pretty disappointing.

Sorry, that is actually what I meant. From the bits and pieces I've picked up, Hulk and IM2 seem to be the least regarded. I think you're right that I may enjoy the Cap movies more; I've heard so many good things about Winter Soldier.

I would recommend giving Winter Soldier a try. If you don't like it then there's nothing else from the MCU I would recommend at that point.

Murphiroth posted...

Raka_Putra posted...

As for me personally I haven't watched Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp. Are they mandatory?

Minus the post credits scene of AM&W nah.

They're both pretty good though.

Paratroopa1 posted...

Homecoming is great and Ant-Man and the Wasp is a lot of fun imo, not mandatory but I would watch

Thanks. I mean I'd try to watch them eventually, but I don't have a lot of time or will to watch movies on week days usually and I'm only two days from watching Endgame. So if I can put them off til later, that's reassuring.
---

For Yo.

Before Infinity War I had seen

Iron Man 1-3
Captain America 1-3
Thor 3
Spiderman
Avengers 1 and 2

After watching it I saw both GotG because I enjoyed the characters in Infinity War.

I would say if you want to be quick ready for it. Watch the Captain America movies. Thor Ragnarok. And both Avengers. Though Age of Ultron is a slog for some.
---

Heads up - Premiere was last night, so there might be spoilers floating around. Be mindful with your browsing, go dark on social media to be sure
---

Not to mention that there was apparently a legit leak like last week too. Thankfully I managed to stay away from that.
---

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Apologies in advance for hijacking this topic (I hope you all believe that I'm not trolling), but I want to ask the MCU fans for their opinions.

Until recently, the only MCU movie I had seen was Black Panther, which I thought was fun in theaters but have had no desire to rewatch. A couple weeks ago, I watched the first Iron Man and honestly didn't care for it. A few years ago, I tried to sit through GotG and quit 20 minutes in, but in that film's defense, I was watching with hyperactive little cousins and not paying too much attention.

I know my sample size is pretty paltry, but would it be kiiiiiiinda reasonable at this point to just assume these movies aren't for me? My brother told me he really liked Infinity War despite only seeing a couple of the earlier films... but I'm too OCD about this stuff to do that. In order to reach Infinity War, I gotta watch all ~18 movies. I want to power through them, partly because they have become so culturally significant and partly so I don't skip something excellent, but considering comedy may be my least favorite genre (weird I know) and the MCU seems steeped in comedy, I may just hate the long ride.

Also, Hulk and Iron Man 2 would be next up, and everyone says those are the shits

Its too late to power through them. If you wanted to do that you should have started a week ago. If you try to force it now you will burn out and hate the entire experience. Just forget about it for now. Come back to the whole thing later when you can tackle it at an easy pace.
---

Oh, I didn't mean I wanted to power through them to catch Endgame in theaters. I just wanna get through them in general while they're still a cultural juggernaut. I already missed the train with Game of Thrones.
---

Well, the movies should all be on the new Disney streaming service, so thats probably going to be the most convenient way to watch them all.
---

For Yo:

Watch The Captain America movies. The first one is the worst of the 3, the second is the best Marvel film.

After that... if you liked Black Panther, then Doctor Strange might be a good choice. Otherwise, Avengers then Infinity War, probably (could watch Age of Ultron but it sucks)
---

Really, the "necessary" films to watch to feel fully in the MCU would be:

Avengers
Civil War
Infinity War

Other films are important, but you can catch the whole gist of the everything with those 3.
---

Avengers would probably be your least favorite, though if you like Joss Whedon, you may give it a go.
---

The most serious movies in the MCU would probably be:

Incredible Hulk
Winter Soldier
First Avenger/Civil War

So if youre not as big into comedy you might actually like Hulk, and the Captain America films in general are possibly more up your alley.
---

Interesting fact: Avengers will play in more theaters domestically than any other movie ever.

4600+.
---

i just ordered tickets for 11am Monday and reserved a seat smack dab in the middle of the theater

this is gonna be great
---

scarletspeed7 posted...

Interesting fact: Avengers will play in more theaters domestically than any other movie ever.

4600+.

Probably globally too but it'll be harder to confirm.

It's crazy here in Indonesia, some cinemas are open 24 hours for at least the first few days, with show times at 2 AM and 5 AM.
---

Endgame has a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.
---

I think Civil War is closest to the platonic ideal of an MCU film

If you try one, try that

Winter Soldier is just a good movie by any standard
---

IMAX.
3D.
IN 8 HOURS.

Holy shit it's nearly fucking time.
---

It's starting!
---

My final North American weekend predictions for this upcoming weekend:

1. $303.0 million Avengers: Endgame ($65K PTA, the best of recent years but just a bit short of Return of the Jedi for the adjusted wide release record)
2. $10.1 million Captain Marvel (+10.5% - Black Panther decreased a mere 4% against Infinity War, and Captain Marvel has been showing lots of Endgame-fueled momentum of late)
3. $8.6 million The Curse of La Llorona
4. $6.4 million Shazam!
5. $5.8 million Breakthrough
6. $3.6 million Dumbo
7. $3.5 million Little
8. $1.7 million Missing Link
9. $1.5 million Pet Sematary
10. $1.5 million Us
11. $1.4 million Penguins
12. $430,000 Hellboy
13. $420,000 Amazing Grace
14. $400,000 After

Additionally, I do think Endgame can open over the $1 billion mark worldwide, which with my North American prediction in mind, would require close to a 20% increase on Infinity War's international openings. China alone having a five-day day-and-date opening instead of three days two weeks after the rest of the world should go a long ways towards that end.

My final overall Endgame prediction is the following: $303 million North American / $1.05 billion worldwide opening -> $760 million North American / $2.5 billion worldwide total. I've got no detailed logic to justify these specific numbers, given the prediction difficulty inherent in forecasting such high-level cinematic events, but based on the evidence we've seen to date, I believe Endgame can soar even higher than most people are expecting.
---