Board 8 > Movie and Box Office Topic: Prepping for Endgame

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah

See that's what I thought, but Mendelson was like "it's still not super likely" and I was like "7 isn't much?" but I guess I trust the Forbes guy over my own thoughts

But you're right, there probably will be one final push. I figured it'd be done by the end of the month.

That said, I reckon they'll re-release Avatar just before 2 comes out.
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Honestly, I think it depends on how many cinemas drop it for this weekend.
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My North American weekend predictions:

1. $184.3 million The Lion King
2. $21.2 million Spider-Man: Far From Home
3. $11.3 million Toy Story 4
4. $5.8 million Crawl
5. $5.3 million Aladdin
6. $3.8 million Yesterday
7. $3.4 million Stuber
8. $2.4 million Annabelle Comes Home
9. $1.3 million The Secret Life of Pets 2
10. $1.2 million Midsommar
11. $1.2 million Avengers: Endgame
12. $880,000 The Farewell
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23 in Thursday previews, not too shabby.
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There's a lot more going on at the box office than the obligatory Endgame news. First off, The Lion King opened to $454.4 million worldwide, for a total of $531 million to date counting its week-early Chinese date. For comparison's sake, Far From Home, which opened earlier in key markets such as North America, the British Isles, Australia, and Japan, was at $577 million by the end of its first North American weekend. TLK still hasn't opened in Japan, Italy, or Hong Kong yet, and with great audience reception, it's likely to hold better than Far From Home from here, so $1 billion is locked.

However, Far From Home itself has reached $971 million to date, setting it up to break $1 billion within the next week. Aladdin is at $988.8 million so far, and it will also reach the mark soon. Those three movies may very well each cross $1 billion within the same week, which would be unprecedented. On top of that, Toy Story 4 will also break $1 billion, though likely near the end of August as opposed to the end of July/beginning of August that the other three are tracking for. It will certainly be interesting to see in what order and on what day each the four manage the feat.
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These nostalgia bombs are soon to run dry, which is interesting to me. Disney didn't want to spread them out and have more consistent fiscal quarters across the board. Instead, I think they're going to end up with some sudden dry wells. I wonder if the heavier push on the proven franchises here in Aladdin and Lion King so close together was at all influenced by the incoming FOX purchase at the time they were being scheduled.

I saw both Aladdin and Lion King, and was enamored with neither particularly. The machine at Disney is very strong in terms of marketing and in polishing these films though. The basic components of filming and editing and providing effects is just so ridiculously good over there.

I think the real question becomes, "What is Disney planning to do to sate their investors?" With this Star Wars trilogy reaching an end this year, a potentially down season for Marvel given the Disney+ push, and the biggest marquee Renaissance films off the table aside from TLM, there's got to be some real questioning in regards to solid tentpoles. Avatar isn't necessarily the savior they need.
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It's certainly an interesting situation Disney finds itself in now. 2019 will be a year for them to remember forever (and though it has exceeded even high-end expectations so far, it certainly looked that way from the outset), I suspect in part because of them wanting to get things rolling for Disney+ quickly, but at what cost?

2020 in particular looks peppered with question marks, quite unlike this year: will the new Mulan's serious take on a comedic musical straddle the fine line of drawing nostalgic general audiences and Chinese moviegoers, for whom such a take on the Mulan legend is nothing new? Will people care about a prequel starring a dead character? Jungle Cruise seems like basically a family-friendly version of Jumanji 2, complete with sharing its big star, but it lacks a franchise's built-in audience. Will its similarities bolster its event status over a somewhat light summer, or will the project prove to be too transparently formulaic for audiences? Can Cruella spin a Maleficent-level success in perspective-twisting from a villain whose mission in the source material is to skin puppies to make a fur coat? The year has not one, but two original Pixar movies, which are major question marks at this point. Finally, what's the untitled Disney Animation movie scheduled for November? Zootopia 2 has been something the fans have looked forward to for a long time, would fit into Disney Animation's sequel phase, and provide Disney one 100% safe bet for the year.

Beyond that, of course, is Avatar 2, which is the biggest question mark on Disney's whole schedule. Looking at it as a guaranteed $2 billion+ and revived franchise would be a huge mistake: the first movie hasn't lasted culturally as well as you'd expect, and who knows what James Cameron's great technological innovation will be this time? In that sense, I definitely concur that Avatar isn't necessarily the savior Disney needs. Neither is any other individual movie or group of movies forthcoming, really. It's striking to me that, for all of Disney's success, only Marvel has managed to build up a brand and stand on its own as a major draw without the benefit of nostalgia. And Disney, of course, is running low on opportunities for their other major subsidiary studios to exploit nostalgia. Another concern: Disney habitually overspends on their movies, which could become a huge problem when the nostalgic gravy train stops rolling after 2019 ends, and especially with Disney+ likely to run at an operating loss in its first few years. Speaking of which, in an increasingly crowded and expensive streaming market, can Disney+ acquire the type of traction in an that you'd expect from the strength of Disney's franchises and general brand? All in all, a surprisingly mixed outlook considering Disney's bordering on a 45% share of studio box office this year and, as you mentioned, is typically very good at marketing and polishing their movies.

And now for something completely different...

I watched the movie of the same name a few hours ago, and it really made me appreciate how Monty Python and the Holy Grail worked so well. I have no inherent opposition to the sketch-comedy-without-a-story (very deliberately in this case) format, but the resulting movie at least ought to be funny, especially considering its everything-and-the-kitchen-sink approach. Even its best sketches (the marriage counselor and mountaineering ones) were only fitfully funny, right about on par with Holy Grail's weakest moments. I felt like the movie would have done well to let certain other moments breathe a bit longer, but then there was the restaurant sketch reminding me that longer isn't always better. All in all, "And Now for Something Completely Different" is a flawed work-in-progress at best, but you can definitely see how Monty Python reached The Holy Grail (which was still sketch-focused even with its overarching plot) from it.
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Completely agree on your assessment.

I think the issue is that Star Wars SHOULD have been a perennial release for them, but they squandered the goodwill that they first engendered with the Abrams film. The audience is quite fickle and prone to chewing itself up and killing momentum quickly. The smarter move, I think, would have been films that push the edges of Star Wars further out with less Force-sensitive material. Rogue One seemed to be a perfect example of where Star Wars could go. Of course, you could ALWAYS turn it around with Star Wars. I think fans are still starved for the types of movies they want out of the franchise.

Disney+ easily could be the big pioneering prospect in the streaming service world. Now that the battle lines are drawing themselves, HBO Max and Disney+ make it very clear that there will be a war between the largest production studios, and that everyone needs to pick sides. Hulu is functionally in symbiotic partnership with Disney, Warner is going to consolidate its material with HBO Max it sounds like, Netflix is out on its own and forced to go more independent now, and Amazon is going to be pushing in with Lord of the Rings as a big anchor for a more realistic investment into its streaming platform. It's the opposite of the glut of streaming services we got at E3 this year, all of which I SUSPECT will end up dead within 5 years or at least only subsisting on a very small amount of support. The consolidation honestly doesn't bode well for moviegoers; resources being devoted to the streaming side of entertainment means less premium money-driving content is being pushed for cinemas. A perfect example? Exactly what was announced for Disney+ at E3.

Disney was supposedly going to push a new Indiana Jones, but that's been pushed back. I suspect that, domestically, that's a 300 million dollar property still. Jungle Cruise and Cruella both feel like they won't pull audiences like the films of this year. Cruella, especially, has to contend with the idea that there was already a 101 Dalmatians remake that focused signficantly on a live-action rendition of the character. It's too bad Disney didn't push other villains after Maleficent, such as Jafar and Hades. There's definitely a market for Greek mythology, with films of fairly poor quality and abysmal word of mouth still drumming up strong box office scores. A Disney tie-in and that monster of production behind it? I think you could start a decent live-action FRANCHISE with the material available.

In any event, the most interesting aspect of this year is how decimated the box office is outside of Disney. You gotta wonder if studios were gun shy on the year itself since Disney stole a lot of prime real estate, and if they believe they can open more competitively next year. Or will next year be an even WORSE year than this year? If streaming services are eating up the market for theatrical films right now, just wait until next year.
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I saw lots of low predictions for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, so I'm glad that it still pulled in some truly respectable opening day numbers.
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My North American weekend predictions for August 2-4:

1. $51.0 million Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
2. $37.3 million The Lion King
3. $17.9 million Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. $6.7 million Toy Story 4
5. $6.0 million Spider-Man: Far From Home
6. $2.3 million Crawl
7. $2.1 million Aladdin
8. $1.8 million Yesterday
9. $1.6 million The Farewell
10. $820,000 Annabelle Comes Home
11. $600,000 The Secret Life of Pets 2
12. $520,000 Stuber

Hobbs & Shaw's prospects aren't looking as strong as they ought to be, with very lacking presales. The Lion King's longevity has been another disappointment so far. Hollywood opened fine, but with mixed word of mouth, it's unlikely to reach the $400 million worldwide necessary to break even. If this weekend winds up in line with my expectations, I'm ready to call that 2019 will wind up behind 2018; very disappointing if you're not Disney.
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I think that's an extremely pessimistic take all around.
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I think Hobbs is going to land at 60, personally. Not what I was hoping for its opening, but I don't think it's as dire as your prediction on its front.

But yes, this year is proving that Hollywood is having trouble drrawing outside of one studio having a year that will be tough to duplicate for another 10 years, probably.

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There have been some disappointing films draw wise for sure, but what films that have come out in 2019 could really challenge Disney's defacto Top 6 right now? No film outside of Disney's was really expected to pull in anywhere near 300m domestic, so I guess I'm just confused. What's coming out this year isn't a big surprise or anything.
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I think the only film with any sort of chance at it could be the IT sequel, but I don't feel like that one is gonna be able to surpass the original even with the good word of mouth and awesome trailers they've put together for it.
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The issue isn't that something SHOULD have done better.

The issue is that no studio pushed anything that COULD do better.

And IT could very well end up being one of like two non-BV films in the Top 10 this year. That's almost a monopoly.

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v_charon posted...

There have been some disappointing films draw wise for sure, but what films that have come out in 2019 could really challenge Disney's defacto Top 6 right now? No film outside of Disney's was really expected to pull in anywhere near 300m domestic, so I guess I'm just confused. What's coming out this year isn't a big surprise or anything.

The surprise isn't that Disney's 2019 supremacy has been effectively unchallenged. That was pretty much expected from the get-go (and in fact, one could make the argument that Endgame has been the only Disney movie to definitively beat reasonable expectations). It's also true that nothing that was expected to hit $300M domestic failed to do so.

The real problem is that, practically without fail, one non-Disney intended tentpole after another has disappointed, and now Hobbs & Shaw looks like the latest victim. Lego 2, Alita, Detective Pikachu, Godzilla 2, Dark Phoenix, and Men in Black International have all wound up as clear disappointments, while the likes of Glass, How to Train Your Dragon 3, and Shazam have merely fared acceptably, though at least Us and John Wick 3 (as well as the Disney-associated Far From Home) have done well.

To me, 2019 is too far behind 2018 this late in the game to be able to make up for it, which I consider very disappointing for what was supposed to be a record-breaking year. With July's end, that includes four consecutive months that looked like potential record-breakers (and that practically needed to be given our shortfall against the last few years) falling quite a ways short, and none of the next four has a great shot at besting 2018's equivalent months.
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I'd say Detective Pikachu and Alita are in the "fared acceptably" category, but yeah. 2019 pretty much sucks if you're not Disney.

I mean it really depends how you look at it as far as successful goes. Take a movie like Escape Room for example, which made over $50m domestic on a $9m budget. That's a better turnover than Endgame.
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v_charon posted...

I mean it really depends how you look at it as far as successful goes. Take a movie like Escape Room for example, which made over $50m domestic on a $9m budget. That's a better turnover than Endgame.

I think the point is that the entire industry, overall, is underperforming compared to 2018.
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Time for another edition of my error-prone domestic weekend predictions!

1. $28.1 million Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
2. $22.4 million Dora and the Lost City of Gold
3. $20.0 million The Lion King
4. $18.8 million Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
5. $10.9 million Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
6. $8.3 million The Art of Racing in the Rain
7. $6.9 million The Kitchen
8. $4.5 million Spider-Man: Far From Home
9. $4.1 million Toy Story 4
10. $2.7 million The Farewell
11. $2.0 million Bring the Soul: The Movie
12. $1.3 million The Bravest
13. $1.2 million Brian Banks
14. $1.1 million Yesterday
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Stories looks great in previews. It's comparing well to other horror films that opened up with around 25m, though I don't expect it to reach that as it's likely front-loaded quite a bit. Dora did okay as well, that prediction should be decent for it.

I expect The Lion King to reclaim #1 this week as Hobbs & Shaw probably dips quite a bit. TLK was the #1 film on Thursday.
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v_charon posted...

Stories looks great in previews. It's comparing well to other horror films that opened up with around 25m, though I don't expect it to reach that as it's likely front-loaded quite a bit. Dora did okay as well, that prediction should be decent for it.

I expect The Lion King to reclaim #1 this week as Hobbs & Shaw probably dips quite a bit. TLK was the #1 film on Thursday.

Between summer previews being more frontloaded and a C CinemaScore indicating lacking word of mouth, I'd expect Scary Stories to settle right around my prediction. Deadline says $21M right now, but I think that early estimate will prove a bit too optimistic over the weekend.

Dora started its previews at 4 PM, so it's going to be frontloaded relative to past comparable movies such as Christopher Robin. Deadline's currently calling it at $16M, which seems about right to me. Another factor that's likely dragging down its weekend is poor reception from the kids who are liable to drive attendance for this type of movie, especially given its brand (reportedly a mere 3.5/5 stars from audience tracking service PostTrak).

TLK was also number 1 on Wednesday, but H&S has already proven itself to be walk-up heavy, and I suspect it's also weekend-heavy, plus TLK has much more audience overlap with the new movies than H&S. Still, my $28M forecast for the latter does look a bit high right now.
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A C from that place is basically an A for a horror film; it's highly unreliable in terms of the genre. They almost always have a bad score up for every film no matter what it is, unless it's something like IT or Halloween perhaps.
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v_charon posted...

A C from that place is basically an A for a horror film; it's highly unreliable in terms of the genre. They almost always have a bad score up for every film no matter what it is, unless it's something like IT or Halloween perhaps.

Yes, I'm well aware that horror movies tend to get low marks from CinemaScore polling, but a C is still generally on the low end for horror.

The past year of horror movies with CinemaScore info looks like this:

B+: Halloween
B: Crawl, Us, Happy Death Day 2U, Escape Room
B-: Annabelle Comes Home, Ma, The Curse of La Llorona
C+: Midsommar, Child's Play, Pet Sematary, The Prodigy
C: Hell Fest, The Nun
C-: The Possession of Hannah Grace
D-: Slender Man

Looking further back, B+ isn't exactly an unheard-of score for horror (A Quiet Place, It as you mentioned, etc.), while A- has even happened in a select few cases (The Conjuring, The Conjuring 2, The Silence of the Lambs, and The Sixth Sense).

Overall, horror CinemaScores are typically 2-3 sub-grades below the average movie, so Scary Stories is more like a B or B-, which is still lackluster.
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I mean the site has Hereditary, one of the most critically acclaimed horror films in recent times with a D+. Sorry if you'll forgive me if I don't trust a site that has that film on the level JUST above Slender Man.
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It matters in terms of money, not critical acclaim.
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Does it? Since when did The Nun fall underneath all those 50m at best films?
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v_charon posted...

I mean the site has Hereditary, one of the most critically acclaimed horror films in recent times with a D+. Sorry if you'll forgive me if I don't trust a site that has that film on the level JUST above Slender Man.

CinemaScores by nature have little-to-nothing to do with whether a given movie is actually good, I'm not going to argue otherwise about that, but they mean a whole lot in terms of indicating what word of mouth is like. That's because the firm polls moviegoers immediately after they've finished watching a given movie, while they're still in the theater, on Friday evening. Particularly when subdividing by genre, CinemaScores consistently have a positive correlation with legs, as you can see here: https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/wiki/cinemascore

Granted, Hereditary was somewhat of an exception, breaking a 3x multiple despite its pathetic CinemaScore. I personally chalk it up to the intensity of the conversation that surrounded the movie during its early theatrical run, which spurred people to see it so they could join the discussion even if they weren't generally hearing good things about it. Such an effect isn't exactly unprecedented in the annals of CinemaScore; for example, Inception only received a B+.

v_charon posted...

Does it? Since when did The Nun fall underneath all those 50m at best films?

The Nun wasn't exactly facing a killer's row of competition, particularly in terms of horror, yet it held worse than any previous Conjuring movie with a mere 2.17x multiple.
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It's been a good indicator of holds. I mean, you can nitpick about it if you want, but the numbers exist that prove it.
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MetalmindStats posted...

I personally chalk it up to the intensity of the conversation that surrounded the movie during its early theatrical run, which spurred people to see it so they could join the discussion even if they weren't generally hearing good things about it.

But I never heard anything bad about Hereditary, because no one was actually saying anything bad about it. Except this website.
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And I mean if a website like that is so accurate and trusted, then anomalies wouldn't exist. I thought the entire point of a discussion topic was to have a discussion, not to blindly follow the lead of a website. If that's really such a good indicator then I'm not sure what the point of having any discussion at all is.
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I... really don't follow this line of aggression at all. Night.
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v_charon posted...

And I mean if a website like that is so accurate and trusted, then anomalies wouldn't exist. I thought the entire point of a discussion topic was to have a discussion, not to blindly follow the lead of a website. If that's really such a good indicator then I'm not sure what the point of having any discussion at all is.

...I thought I just took great pains to point out Hereditary's anomalous nature and attempt to explain why that was. Of course CinemaScore isn't perfect; we don't have a Maoyan equivalent here in the US. What I'm telling you is that I bet Scary Stories has the lackluster general audience word of mouth CinemaScore (as well as its 68% positive RT verified audience score) supports, and as such, I think it will likely open under $20 million and close with less than $50 million domestically. For all we know, we could see it turn into a discussion piece like Hereditary, and I could be very wrong. It's just my educated guess that we won't see a repeat of that situation.
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Scary Stories debuted at around $21m and was the number 2 film this weekend.
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1. $16.0 million Good Boys
2. $12.1 million Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
3. $11.6 million The Angry Birds Movie 2 (3-day)
4. $11.4 million The Lion King
5. $8.9 million Dora and the Lost City of Gold
6. $8.6 million Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
7. $8.6 million 47 Meters Down: Uncaged
8. $6.0 million Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9. $4.8 million Whered You Go, Bernadette
10. $4.6 million Blinded by the Light
11. $4.2 million The Art of Racing in the Rain
12. $2.6 million Spider-Man: Far From Home
13. $2.1 million Toy Story 4
14. $1.5 million The Kitchen
15. $1.4 million The Farewell

As always, take these with a grain of salt.
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Slight chance that Hobbs and Shaw take a third weekend, which would be hilarious.
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Good Boys looks to be overperforming a good bit.
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v_charon posted...

Good Boys looks to be overperforming a good bit.

Another indicator that one should trust and put stock into overall presales, which, when juxtaposed against similar movies, pretty much exactly pointed towards the $20 million it's looking to open to. I opted for a more conservative prediction due to the dog days of summer combined with a few weaker circumstantial factors.

Also, Scary Stories already opened over $20 million, and it will very likely close over $50 million, making me look like the ass in that particular argument. Oops!
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$21 million for Good Boys, projected. Scary Stories was able to stay in the top 5 and dip a good bit less than most horror films do in week 2! That 50 million is definitely within reach now with just 10m away from it domestically. It could even pass up Angry Birds 2 for 4th this weekend when the actuals come out.
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At this point, I think it's important to mention that Spider-Man showed that the fatigue from the fallout of the long-gestating Avengers run isn't that much. It still outgrossed Homecoming and pulled $1.1 billion. I see a lot of people consistently saying that we will eventually have some sort of superhero fatigue, but at this point I've yet to see any actual evidence that it will happen.
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scarletspeed7 posted...

At this point, I think it's important to mention that Spider-Man showed that the fatigue from the fallout of the long-gestating Avengers run isn't that much. It still outgrossed Homecoming and pulled $1.1 billion. I see a lot of people consistently saying that we will eventually have some sort of superhero fatigue, but at this point I've yet to see any actual evidence that it will happen.

This is a very good point. I remember going all doom-and-gloom after FFH's opening day, thinking that some temporary Endgame fatigue had set in, but its subsequent run has proven me entirely wrong. I think the superhero genre is like any other, really: as long as the quality movies (as judged by audiences) keep coming, the genre will keep thriving.
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This is actually a point I was often trying to make back in 2008. People consistently suggested that Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Hellboy II, Hancock and The Dark Knight all coming out in the same year to fairly strong commercial success demonstrated the peak of the genre. I think you made the right point though - the genre will thrive as long as there is quality storytelling.

What is really important to note is something that Timothy Leary once said: superheroes are the extension of pulp heroes. Pulp heroes are the extension of Victorian heroes of writers like Verne. Victorian heroes are an extension of our medieval legends. Medieval legends stem from ancient mythology. We yearn for a primal archetype of hero to represent the zenith of human fortitude as they handle the sort of problems that occupy our minds or fill our nightmares with fear. It's a natural part of storytelling. For our generation, it manifests in the form of superheroes. Superman, Batman and Wonder Woman are just the Hercules, Perseus and Atalanta of our time.
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Clearly Superheroes are for our time. Must be why King Arthur films always do so poorly in the box office.
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Makes sense on a weird level. John Carter could have been something special if it was made and released, like, 70 years ago.
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I dunno, we already had Superman shorts in theaters in the 40s
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John Carter and early Superman go together pretty well. Superman really takes a different direction in the 50s though.
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Marvel movies will continue to do well until they actually hit a few actually bad movies in a row. Even the weakest Marvel movies have so far still been seen as fun popcorn flicks to the average movie goer, and until that changes, I don't think there's any fatigue in sight.
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Not to mention other movies in the series has more modest goals and not every one has have to be a billion dollar seller. Spider-Man, yes. Ant Man, not so much.
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Speaking of Marvel... apparently Good Boys is only the second film this year to open at #1 that wasn't a sequel or remake of something else. If true, that's alarming. The other film was Us. Mojo reported this info, but they erroneously credited La Llorona as the third film to do it, but it's actually a conjuring universe film so I don't think it counts.
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It would be interesting to know how many there were each year like that this decade
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