Board 8 > Who is going to get the 2020 Democratic nomination? (pre-debate)

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hillary hasn't formally filed to run yet so she doesn't count. If you think she's gonna get the nom anyway just post it here I guess

I think the entire lead-up to the debates this week has been fascinating, I'd love to see what people think of the candidates so far pre-debate. I'll do another poll on 6/28 after the second debate has ended.

Here's everyone officially running:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Declared_candidates

Here's who will be in the first two debates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#First_debate_in_Florida_(June_2019)

If you are passionate about someone not listed in the poll (Gabbard, Gillibrand, etc) then post about them here and if they kill it in the debate and have a swell of support maybe I'll cut Yang or Castro and add them into the post-debate poll
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I voted Pete Buttigieg, he's not the most popular candidate but he recently overtook Warren in a few polls, although he's still pretty far behind Sanders and waaaaaay far behind Biden

I'm not actually the biggest fan of his but I think he has a really good shot. the stars might be aligning just right for him. I'll post more about my feelings later I guess.
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I mean in all honesty i dont think it really matters in the end. The Democrats really had to win last round, no matter who steps in this time is in for a spanking.

I'm judt giving my 2 cents as a Canadian who has to hear about American politics on the daily yet I also do a little research. Trump is unstoppable in the sense that normal hatred and slander dont slow him down because as much as he gets shit on all the time it makes his supporters love him even more. He gets the love from their belief that everyone is against him and people like to feel connected to the idea that the president might actually care for them. I dont like him as a person but he has done some good. Yes, also bad, like every president ever.

Again, I dont live in America so I'm sure I miss things now and again.

Before I even get to some of these nominees, you realize whoever goes up against trump in the debates is dead right? He has the unbridled support from people who relish in the fact that he says what he wants, even if it's not politically correct. Hes going to jab at Biden or Sanders or even Yang and no one can stop him.

I understand we would like to hear a debate with real answers but it's also a game of showmanship. Votes are all that counts.

I like Andrew Yang a lot but I'm afraid hes too young for many to vote for him and unfortunately his message of UBI will also be misconstrued with notions of socialism and NeetBux.

Biden offed himself already being creepy uncle joe and if I were trump I'd joke about that immediately and ruin him.

Sanders I'm not fond of, free tuition sounds good. Same as our "free" health care. Ya, it's not free, we ALL pay for it through income taxes and it actually costs poor people more in the long run. Our system is also shit.

Buttigieg would actually be a great candidate and I dont think trump could joke about him for obvious reasons and yes you have to play the Christian card if you wanna become POTUS sadly but many hardcore Christians wont vote for Buttigieg for obvious reasons.

Need to do 1 of 2 things-

1. Get God damn Oprah or someone to run and pray for a miracle

2. Call it a write off right now and plan for 2024 and start a full rebuild. Politics is a lot like sports, and this would be the smarter strategy honestly.
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I will be astonished if anyone but Biden wins. And then he'll probably fail in the general.
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If ya smellllllllll
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ZenOfThunder posted...

I voted Pete Buttigieg, he's not the most popular candidate but he recently overtook Warren in a few polls, although he's still pretty far behind Sanders and waaaaaay far behind Biden

I'm not actually the biggest fan of his but I think he has a really good shot. the stars might be aligning just right for him. I'll post more about my feelings later I guess.

He's got like zero support among Black voters though, and the recent police shooting in his town & his handling thereof don't look like they'll help any.
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MrGreenonion posted...

ZenOfThunder posted...

I voted Pete Buttigieg, he's not the most popular candidate but he recently overtook Warren in a few polls, although he's still pretty far behind Sanders and waaaaaay far behind Biden

I'm not actually the biggest fan of his but I think he has a really good shot. the stars might be aligning just right for him. I'll post more about my feelings later I guess.

He's got like zero support among Black voters though, and the recent police shooting in his town & his handling thereof don't look like they'll help any.

This is the exact reasons I'm not 100% feeling it and why I'm not his biggest fan

I still think he can turn it around but if he ever has a real shot it might not be this time
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Sanders and Warren would lose pretty easily to Trump (though Sanders could probably have whipped 2016 trump in the bum pretty handily) Joe Biden has the joke vote factor, which I'm not willing to count out but as anyone who follows our contests knows it's way too unpredictable.

Andrew Yang seems like the only person who has a hint of beating Trump, and tbqh he's almost made me excited enough to register as a democrat, but he'll probably face the brute force of the awful pragmatism of the democratic party like Bernie did last year.

Jay Insee running for president is the weirdest dumbass move I've ever seen. We don't even like him in our own state??? Also he colluded with Hilary in the primaries last year against Bernie, so why does he think anyone would ever in their right mind vote for him.
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The Democrats ought to be focusing on putting up their most centrist candidate. There isn't a Liberal alive who is going to go "well I didn't get my candidate so I'll just vote for someone else and possibly let Trump win." No, the key votes are the independents and anti-Trump Republicans, and Warren and Sanders are NOT going to get those votes.
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Damn some of you guys should be pundits with these Galaxy brain takes

That's also one of the reasons why I think Buttigieg might have a shot. Yeah, he's gay, he's also from South Bend, Indiana, is white, has fairly centrist views, was in the military, is some form of Christian, and he may or may not hate black people

that last one helps him in certain groups and certainly doesn't help him with, y'know, actual black people. I don't know how he's danced around the whole "potentially a racist" thing but if he goes up against Trump and Trump can't play the gay card (he might, he doesn't know how to shut up) he'll ironically try to call Pete a racist and tqbh I've been waiting for Mayor Pete to address a lot of the controversies surrounding that and it doesn't seem like he will until directly called out on a big scale

Also I watched some footage from Mayor Pete rallies and like NO minorities seem to show up for the guy. He's got a lot of liberal support just form being a gay democrat but IDK if he's the best candidate

which is why I said earlier that the stars really need to align for him to win. I don't see it as likely but I also see the possibility if he plays it right and somehow convinces the black demographic that he isn't a racist. which he might not be. i just don't know enough to confidently say yet.
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The winner of the black vote gets the nomination

black people love joe Biden

black people don't love Bernie Sanders

black voters are way more moderate than almost every candidate running
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SantaRPidgey posted...

Andrew Yang seems like the only person who has a hint of beating Trump, and tbqh he's almost made me excited enough to register as a democrat, but he'll probably face the brute force of the awful pragmatism of the democratic party like Bernie did last year.

Is this a real take? Yang is a walking meme candidate with plenty of red flags. Which worked for Trump but I'd rather we not do that again.
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If you forced me to pick one person, it'd be Biden. But I'd take "the field" over him. Really, Biden doesn't have anywhere to really go but down, but it's more a matter of one of the Warren/Sanders/Harris tier being able to take advantage and not having the not-Biden vote split between them all.

Warren has the momentum right now in polling so I'd currently consider her the most likely of "the field" to get there, probably followed by Sanders/Harris. Beto/Buttigieg are a clear step below them in odds, IMO. No one else really ranks at all.
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I think Beto has fallen off pretty hard, he kinda announced he was running like everyone thought but I can't think of any real clear stance or anything he has at all. I think Obama endorsed him at one point? Like a soft endorsement? But now Biden is running, and Beto is the dude that lost to Ted Cruz so... yeah. Maybe in a few years.

what Biden has going most against him is his general attitude, he keeps skipping events and basically acting like he already has the nomination. I personally think Trump has a TON of ammo to use against him, and so far his platform just seems to be "Remember Obama?" which is not going to do him any favors with certain demographics
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Underleveled posted...

There isn't a Liberal alive who is going to go "well I didn't get my candidate so I'll just vote for someone else and possibly let Trump win."

*looks at Jill Stein's 2016 votes*

you sure about that
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I admittedly voted third party in 2016 because I hated both candidates so much

I won't be doing that again
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xp1337 posted...

Underleveled posted...

There isn't a Liberal alive who is going to go "well I didn't get my candidate so I'll just vote for someone else and possibly let Trump win."

*looks at Jill Stein's 2016 votes*

you sure about that

none of those people are liberals tho

ZenOfThunder posted...

I think Beto has fallen off pretty hard, he kinda announced he was running like everyone thought but I can't think of any real clear stance or anything he has at all.

Well today he announced a dogshit new "war tax" policy where families who don't have anyone in the military have to pay a tax to fund healthcare for veterans of future wars. So that's a fun way of splitting people into groups that are more American than others, and also of punishing people who are unable to serve.
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I'd say Elizabeth Warren. I think she stands the most to gain from Biden's inevitable drop.
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MrGreenonion posted...

ZenOfThunder posted...

I think Beto has fallen off pretty hard, he kinda announced he was running like everyone thought but I can't think of any real clear stance or anything he has at all.

Well today he announced a dogshit new "war tax" policy where families who don't have anyone in the military have to pay a tax to fund healthcare for veterans of future wars. So that's a fun way of splitting people into groups that are more American than others, and also of punishing people who are unable to serve.

It's ostensibly to prevent future wars because no one actually wants to pay more taxes for war. Which isn't a terrible idea except if anything the tax doesn't go far enough and the government will just start wars anyways. If you slashed the military budget and then made the war tax huge it would probably work as a deterrent.
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

MrGreenonion posted...

ZenOfThunder posted...

I think Beto has fallen off pretty hard, he kinda announced he was running like everyone thought but I can't think of any real clear stance or anything he has at all.

Well today he announced a dogshit new "war tax" policy where families who don't have anyone in the military have to pay a tax to fund healthcare for veterans of future wars. So that's a fun way of splitting people into groups that are more American than others, and also of punishing people who are unable to serve.

It's ostensibly to prevent future wars because no one actually wants to pay more taxes for war. Which isn't a terrible idea except if anything the tax doesn't go far enough and the government will just start wars anyways. If you slashed the military budget and then made the war tax huge it would probably work as a deterrent.

The government won't start wars because the people don't want to pay a tax? Yeah because the government has traditionally only started wars that were popular and has certainly ended then when views changed. Afghanistan is just such a perennial fave apparently!
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Warren got this then she loses the general.

And I called Trump before anyone else fyi
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MrGreenonion posted...

The government won't start wars because the people don't want to pay a tax? Yeah because the government has traditionally only started wars that were popular and has certainly ended then when views changed. Afghanistan is just such a perennial fave apparently!

Well yeah but part of why they can do this is because there's zero accountability
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Make it a war tax on the warmakers

That is, when we go to war everyone in Congress and everyone in the white house immediately owes 1 billion dollars each

They lose all assets, must live on the streets and have to wear a barrel held up by suspenders until the war is over

And isn't the government already supposed to take care of its veterans with the $600 billion we're giving it every year
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Hoping for Bernie, but it'll probably be Biden.
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banananor posted...

Make it a war tax on the warmakers

That is, when we go to war everyone in Congress and everyone in the white house immediately owes 1 billion dollars each

They lose all assets, must live on the streets and have to wear a barrel held up by suspenders until the war is over

And isn't the government already supposed to take care of its veterans with the $600 billion we're giving it every year

lol you know the overwhelming majority of our budget goes into things like extremely expensive bombs and waste that lines the pockets at raytheon and boeing and they constantly try to squeeze the soldiers, cut their healthcare and benefits, to the point that new recruits don't even get retirement no matter how long they stay in the military. plus just the simple obvious fact that a government that sends soldiers to wars of aggression is not a government with any concern for the health of the soldiers in it.

lol, remember when the globalist media were pushing Harris early on?
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apparently Buttigeig is starting an "i actually don't hate black people" campaign so at least he knows his weak points

probably too late

is anyone going to make a discussion thread for the debates? if i dont see one tomorrow before they start i'll do it
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

The winner of the black vote gets the nomination

black people love joe Biden

black people don't love Bernie Sanders

black voters are way more moderate than almost every candidate running

Maybe with black voters who answer their landline telephone.

Bernie actually won the black american under 35 demo in more states than not in 2016.
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I think (hope) it's Warren. I think it's a very small probability that it isn't one of Biden/Sanders/Warren.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

The winner of the black vote gets the nomination

black people love joe Biden

black people don't love Bernie Sanders

black voters are way more moderate than almost every candidate running

Maybe with black voters who answer their landline telephone.

Bernie actually won the black american under 35 demo in more states than not in 2016.

More then that, Bernie's strongest group of support is young black women. Older black people are where he has struggled.

older black people loved Hillary because they loved Bill

it cost Bernie a lot of support

Bernie is hip with the young folk though, yeah
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Maybe with black voters who answer their landline telephone.

Bernie actually won the black american under 35 demo in more states than not in 2016.

have we reached the unskewed polls section of the primary already

Clinton won "black voters who turned out" in a landslide. Exit polling had it 79-20 in her favor in 2016. (Obama/Clinton was 85-14 in his favor in 2008)

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1143177397484888069

That thread has the data on how it's gone in Democratic Presidential Primaries going back to 1984.
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debate is tonight at 9 EST, get your last votes in
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