Current Events > SWE criminologist:Lack of support for the case that assault rapes have increased

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.sydsvenskan.se/2019-06-24/saknas-stod-for-pastaendet-att-overfallsvaldtakterna-har-okat-det-senaste-decenniet

Do Google translate. I'll do a summary and show some relevant bits if you ask.
This is an opinion piece written by a criminologist who also has a PhD in law. Her main point is that the data does not support the idea that the amount of "assault rapes", i.e., rapes by strangers committed e.g., outdoors. As opposed to rapes in parties, or at home, etc.

She cites official statistics on the years 2005-2017 that show some interesting things:

- The total amount of reported rapes has increased.
- The amount of reported rapes committed outdoors has decreased.
- The amount of reported rapes committed by strangers (i.e., someone the victim doesn't know) has not increased.
- A big part of the increase in reports is about rapes where victim and rapist knew each other beforehand.
- Another big part of the increase in reports is cases where the victim and rapist only talked online before the rape.
- The amount of reports in which the rapist was clearly affected by alcohol or drugs has doubled.
- Physical violence increased between 2005 and 2011, but not between 2011 and 2017.

A foundation called Det goda samhllet (The good society) did their own study using official data, and found that the over-representation of people with foreign backgrounds has actually gone down.

Her final takeaway:
tminstone tv teman fr ett frebyggande arbete tycks kunna utkristalliseras i befintliga datakllor: Alkohol och andra droger samt internetdejting.

My translation:
At least two themes for preventative work seem possible to discern in the data that exist: Alcohol and other drugs, and internet dating.

tl;dr: Data does not support the argument that immigration (or the refugee crisis) has had a negative impact on rape.
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Interesting to see considering how strong the narrative was that migrants are raping everything in sight
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King_Hellebuyck posted...

Interesting to see considering how strong the narrative was that migrants are raping everything in sight

They need a scapegoat.
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Bump
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is this that BR report that was absolutely shit that came out a few weeks ago, that was completely subpar, with faulty questionable methods, or is it a new one?

why did they stop at 2017?
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ROBANN_88 posted...

is this that BR report that was absolutely shit that came out a few weeks ago, that was completely subpar, with faulty questionable methods, or is it a new one?

why did they stop at 2017?

Which one are you talking about? The one that did some speculation based on data collected for different reasons? It might be part of that. It's high resolution data about reported rapes.
The reason it stops at 2017 is likely because the data for 2018/2019 isn't complete yet. It's not strange to have a lag of 1-2 years on things like this.

And bear in mind, she's talking about reported cases. That's different from NTU.
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scar the 1 posted...

Which one are you talking about?

i'm talking about this https://www.svd.se/bra-okning-av-sexbrott-gar-inte-att-koppla-till-flyktingar
(it's now under a paywall, but i found a copy https://www.reddit.com/r/svenskpolitik/comments/bu2isw/br%C3%A5_%C3%B6kning_av_sexbrott_g%C3%A5r_inte_att_koppla_till/ep60bca/ )
all it did was:
1, check how many refugees were placed in a county
2, check how manysexual crimes took place in said county
3, divide one with the other and announce proudly that there's no correlation

which has some problems:
1, they assume that everyone would always commit crimes in the city they live in, there is no wiggle room for people crossing city borders.
2. for some reason Stockholm is excluded from the survey
3. it's basically just a few steps above guessing.
4. it was written by Jerzy Sarnecki, who, for example tried to stop Uppdrag Granskning from investigating in the matter before as it would be "problematic"

but if that's not the one, then it's not really relevant to the topic, and i'd hate to derail it by accident
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hmmmm, snopes says otherwise....sorry
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ROBANN_88 posted...

i'm talking about this https://www.svd.se/bra-okning-av-sexbrott-gar-inte-att-koppla-till-flyktingar
(it's now under a paywall, but i found a copy https://www.reddit.com/r/svenskpolitik/comments/bu2isw/br%C3%A5_%C3%B6kning_av_sexbrott_g%C3%A5r_inte_att_koppla_till/ep60bca/ )
all it did was:
1, check how many refugees were placed in a county
2, check how manysexual crimes took place in said county
3, divide one with the other and announce proudly that there's no correlation

which has some problems:
1, they assume that everyone would always commit crimes in the city they live in, there is no wiggle room for people crossing city borders.
2. for some reason Stockholm is excluded from the survey
3. it's basically just a few steps above guessing.
4. it was written by Jerzy Sarnecki, who, for example tried to stop Uppdrag Granskning from investigating in the matter before as it would be "problematic"

This work didn't cite conclusions as much as it cited data, so I'm not sure. Like I said, that one essentially did some guesswork (and it admitted as much). The limitations you mention in 1 and 3 were brought up in the report, and Stockholm was excluded precisely because it is so easy in such a region to commit a crime in a different kommun.

There were some other tests done as well, for example calculating the "verrisk" of refugees if it were true that they were driving the increase in rapes and finding that the numbers were incredibly unrealistic. An outlier before would be 5%, but for that hypothesis to hold the verrisk of that group would have to be like 80-90%. But I'm the end, those weren't the main conclusions from the report, and the report literally said that they were guesswork.

(and frankly, UG did a really shitty job so I can somewhat understand Sarnecki's resistance, but like you say it's a tangent that might not be worth exploring)
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i have to question it, though.

the article posits that immigration has no effect on it.
and as evidence for this, it cites that assaults outside and by unknowns has gone down.

for any of that logic to make sense, you have to assume from the very start that immigrants only ever attack outside, on people they dom't know, and that only Swedes do all the other ones.

i'm sure the individual stats are accurate, but the final conclusion seems to be taken from thin air
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You're mistaken. The article doesn't say "immigration has no effect", at the most it says "we can't see any effect of immigration in the data".
The article posits that the data about reported rape does not support the idea that assault rapes have gone up. The tl;dr in the OP is my reading because yes, it's a very common argument that immigrants "come here and rape our women", and assault rape is a big part of that narrative.

Her actual final conclusion is quoted in my OP as well:
scar the 1 posted...

Her final takeaway:
tminstone tv teman fr ett frebyggande arbete tycks kunna utkristalliseras i befintliga datakllor: Alkohol och andra droger samt internetdejting.

Data shows clearly that rapes with those two factors have increased. Data does not show that an increased immigration has been a driving factor for increased rapes.
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Bump
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Nice, thanks for sharing
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