Board 8 > Box Office Topic II

(+) Yeah! (+)

Oh, my store owner has IMDb Pro! That makes more sense.
---

I might be able to get you an imdb pro account, I work for amazon and they give amazon employees IMDb pro for free because I guess not many people at amazon would give enough of a shit to take advantage of it

I'll let you know if they still do it
---

My domestic predictions for the upcoming weekend:

1. $19.3 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
2. $16.1 million Joker
3. $13.8 million Zombieland: Double Tap
4. $11.1 million The Addams Family
5. $8.2 million Black and Blue
6. $8.0 million Countdown
7. $3.9 million Gemini Man
8. $2.9 million The Lighthouse
9. $2.4 million Abominable
10. $2.0 million The Current War: Directors Cut
11. $2.0 million Downton Abbey
12. $1.8 million Jesus is King
13. $1.7 million Parasite
14. $1.7 million Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
15. $1.5 million Judy
16. $1.3 million Housefull 4
17. $1.1 million Western Stars
18. $1.0 million Hustlers
---

Almost wonder if Joker will take back the top spot.
---

Rooting for One Piece Stampede
---

Joker now highest grossing r rated movie globally
---

Joker tops Maleficent for the weekend. Absolutely hilarious.
---

I hear one piece got 6th
---

ninkendo posted...

I hear one piece got 6th

Only for its opening Thursday, to clarify. Plus, as you mentioned in Discord, its opening compared poorly to recent anime fare.

With domestic weekend actuals, Maleficent held about as well as I expected, topping the box office by an extremely slim margin over Joker's fourth weekend, which I wound up somewhat underestimating.

The bigger news was internationally, where Maleficent and Joker each more-than-doubled their domestic weekend grosses. On the other hand, Terminator: Dark Fate started with a measly $12.8 million from ten territories, including France, Germany, and the UK. It opened below Genisys in practically all of them, by near-50% margins in Germany and the UK; its debuts were also pretty much universally below Dark Phoenix in the same territories. At this point, I can't see even China saving it, especially given the headwinds of heavy competition from local movie Better Days, which just opened to $85 million and has a 9.6 score on Maoyan, and Weathering With You opening on the same day.
---

My domestic weekend predictions for the upcoming frame:

1. $28.6 million Terminator: Dark Fate
2. $12.3 million Harriet
3. $12.1 million Joker
4. $11.7 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
5. $7.8 million The Addams Family
6. $6.1 million Zombieland: Double Tap
7. $5.6 million Arctic Dogs
8. $4.3 million Black and Blue
9. $4.2 million Countdown
10. $4.0 million Motherless Brooklyn
11. $2.9 million The Lighthouse
12. $2.3 million Parasite
13. $1.8 million Jojo Rabbit
14. $1.6 million Gemini Man

Much rougher Chinese weekend predictions for the upcoming frame:

1. $45 million Better Days
2. $30 million Weathering With You
3. $25 million Terminator: Dark Fate
---

I'm floored Focus didn't try to push Harriet much, much harder. There is an audience you could galvanize to see it.
---

Blade Runner is no longer a movie set in the future
---

Terminator bombed as predicted.

---

the terminator franchises carries like no weight anymore, they kept rebooting it with worse and worse movies so even if Dark Fate were good your average audience member probably has 0 investment anymore

i hear more people talking fondly about the universal ride than 3/salvation/genisys at this point
---

I never got what was so bad about Salvation.
---

Salvation was an okay movie. I think the issue is that Terminator lost its urgency.
---

redrocket posted...

Terminator bombed as predicted.

Its pre-sales and walk-ups were so bad that there were a not-inconsiderable number of entirely empty showings all weekend.

---

Not surprised. This new Terminator movie needed to be absolutely amazing for people to get over the stink of Genisys. Astonished Paramount decided to return to the series so soon.
---

I like how you think people went to see Genisys too. That's cute.
---

I did!
---

My domestic weekend predictions for November 8-10:

1. $19.3 million Doctor Sleep
2. $13.8 million Last Christmas
3. $13.0 million Midway
4. $12.2 million Terminator: Dark Fate
5. $8.8 million Joker
6. $8.6 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
7. $7.1 million Harriet
8. $6.3 million Playing with Fire
9. $5.0 million The Addams Family
10. $4.0 million Jojo Rabbit
11. $3.9 million Zombieland: Double Tap
12. $2.5 million Countdown

I'm seeing a bunch of confidence in box office circles that Doctor Sleep can reach $30 million+, enough to match or exceed industry tracking, but its presales and early international box office tell an entirely different story.
---

Came out about 2 weeks too late.
---

MetalmindStats posted...

I'm seeing a bunch of confidence in box office circles that Doctor Sleep can reach $30 million+, enough to match or exceed industry tracking, but its presales and early international box office tell an entirely different story.

Turns out even my bearish prediction here wound up as a $5 million+ highball. Whoops.

Hopefully we'll see an improvement this upcoming weekend, even though two of the three new wide releases aren't looking like they'll do much to help. My predictions:

1. $28.2 million Ford v Ferrari
2. $10.4 million Charlies Angels
3. $9.1 million Midway
4. $7.5 million Playing with Fire
5. $7.3 million The Good Liar
6. $6.5 million Doctor Sleep
7. $5.9 million Last Christmas
8. $5.8 million Joker
9. $4.9 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
10. $4.7 million Harriet
11. $3.8 million Terminator: Dark Fate
12. $3.3 million Jojo Rabbit
---

Ford v Ferrari has had some buzz in my area, and I haven't met someone who was even aware of Charlie's Angels' release.

---

Frozen II, the first big blockbuster (in terms of grosses) since Joker, opens this weekend, as the industry hopes to turn around an ailing November and year in general. Here's my domestic weekend predictions:

1. $142.1 million Frozen II
2. $17.4 million Ford v Ferrari
3. $16.2 million A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
4. $10.7 million 21 Bridges
5. $4.6 million Midway
6. $3.9 million Playing with Fire
7. $3.8 million Charlies Angels
8. $3.1 million The Good Liar
9. $3.0 million Last Christmas
10. $2.8 million Joker
11. $2.3 million Harriet
12. $2.2 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
13. $1.9 million Doctor Sleep
14. $1.7 million Jojo Rabbit

I think Frozen II will prove to be somewhat backloaded with the Thanksgiving break upcoming, and ultimately leg out to about the same multiple as a typical animated movie opening over $100 million, despite the typically frontloaded moviegoing habits of its core young female constituency. $480 million is my current domestic total prediction, along with $760 million elsewhere, for a $1.24 billion worldwide total.
---

Frozen 2's previews trail both Toy Story 4 and Finding Dory, so a little bit of personal disappointment probably incoming. Big numbers still, I'm sure.

---

Here's my three-day domestic predictions for November 29-December 1, early because of the openers both releasing on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving:

1. $80.1 million Frozen II
2. $20.3 million Knives Out
3. $14.9 million Ford v Ferrari
4. $11.5 million A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. $6.5 million Queen & Slim
6. $6.2 million 21 Bridges
7. $3.9 million Playing with Fire
8. $3.4 million Midway
9. $2.7 million The Good Liar
10. $2.7 million Last Christmas
11. $2.0 million Joker
12. $1.9 million Charlies Angels
13. $1.5 million Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
14. $1.5 million Harriet

Unless Frozen II somehow manages to pull off the kind of hold you'd expect for a normal family movie in this situation, it looks like we'll be seeing a deceptively lackluster end to a very bad November. The three-day Thanksgiving weekend last year was worth $216 million for all movies in play, likely a good $50 million more than we'll see this year.

That's no scratch on Frozen II, which has been doing well domestically and spectacularly elsewhere so far, but a reminder that near-schizophrenic scheduling is no substitute for the 3-4 big and appealing movies that normally stake out a given November. It also puts undue pressure on December to break records in order to avoid a year-on-year decline.
---

My latest domestic weekend predictions:

1. $35.8 million Frozen II
2. $14.4 million Knives Out
3. $7.1 million Ford v Ferrari
4. $6.8 million A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
5. $6.1 million Queen & Slim
6. $4.0 million Dark Waters
7. $2.5 million 21 Bridges
8. $2.3 million PLAYMOBIL: The Movie
9. $2.1 million Midway
10. $1.8 million Playing with Fire
11. $1.1 million Joker
12. $980,000 Harriet
13. $950,000 Last Christmas
14. $860,000 Waves

---

My latest domestic weekend predictions:

1. $50.7 million Jumanji: The Next Level
2. $19.0 million Frozen II
3. $10.5 million Black Christmas
4. $10.0 million Richard Jewell
5. $9.6 million Knives Out
6. $4.4 million Queen & Slim
7. $4.3 million Ford v Ferrari
8. $3.1 million A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
9. $2.4 million Dark Waters
10. $1.3 million 21 Bridges
11. $910,000 Midway
12. $880,000 Playing with Fire

With Jumanji looking to decline steeply overall from its predecessor, we're still in a holding period until The Rise of Skywalker. Even Playmobil's hilariously awful debut this past weekend was only third-worst ever for a 2,000+ theater wide release.

---

I'll post one last domestic weekend prediction here, since we see the biggest domestic theatrical event until 2021 opening this weekend:

1. $176.2 million Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. $24.3 million Jumanji: The Next Level
3. $13.5 million Cats
4. $9.7 million Frozen II
5. $5.9 million Bombshell
6. $5.4 million Knives Out
7. $2.3 million Richard Jewell
8. $1.7 million Ford v Ferrari
9. $1.6 million Queen & Slim
10. $1.6 million Black Christmas
11. $1.4 million A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
12. $800,000 Uncut Gems

---

Saw jumanji last weekend it was fine

Will see star wars this weekend

---