Board 8 > B8 NFL Ladder Contest Results and Discussion

(+) Yeah! (+)

Over a week after Week 17 and we don't do playoffs so just a weird situation for me to post this late. Anyway, once again, @Camden is our victor after he snagged it from weeks of doing Level 6 and succeeding over @HBJDubs who was the first on Level 8, but got snagged by some upsets on that rung of the ladder.

Time for one last post of them.

Final results
Level 8
Camden [18]
HBJDubs [17]
Arti [6]
MysteriousStan- Paid(*******)
Runemistress*-Paid(*****)
StifledSilence*- Paid(****)
SwiftyDC*-Paid(***)
Whiskey_Nick**

Level 7
Paratroopa1* [12]
Wiggumfan267 [12]
DpObliVion* [10]
KommunistKoala [10]
5tarscream [7]
Mewtwo59- Paid(***) [6]
foxhead84 [4]
th3l3fty [3]
theawesomestevr* [2]
ZeroSignal620 [1]
KingButz*- Paid(****)
Liquid Oshawott**** [0]
Sir Chris*
SpikeDragon***
Stripperiffic**
thekitchensink**

Level 6
Jukkie [3]
Dancedreamer**
Evil_REmade-Paid(****)
MZero11***
Seginustemple*****
turbopuns*- Paid(***)

Level 5
LadyVyxx* [2]
Ashethan*****
Cody11533**
crazyisgood***
Crescent-Moon**
davidponte****
FBike1**
pronouncemyname**
Ringworm**- Paid(***)
Xuxon****-Paid(***)

Level 4
Wicklebee-Paid(***) [2]
KCF0107** [1]
fortybelowsummer*-Paid(***)
HanOfTheNekos**
MegamanX*
TheKnightofNee******

Level 3
guffguy
kevwaffles**
KokoroAkechi**
Reg**
Scarechan**
Suprak the Stud
Vengeful_KBM*

Level 2
Eddv*
greengravy294
HessianPeel
junk_funk
MaxedOutRyu
Mccheyne
Meow1000*
MMXCalibur
WarThaNemesis2

As I mentioned in Week 17, this was the first time since 2012 of the Ladder Contest that we didn't have anyone move past Week 8, so just a lot more unluckiness this year reaching the higher levels.

This year, taking over from DP I changed two things, I added a new rule of using those bonus points to skip a level that you've been stuck on and I changed up Level 4 from Point counting (30+ or 10-) to Point differential. The latter seemed to have issues, particularly in just 10+ was overly popular. I didn't really keep checking what would have been a better option and should be seen as harder between the two (to make it truly harder than something like picking underdogs), but alas, I'll see what the players think.

I can repost anything rules or what happened over the course of this topic if anyone wants to see them, but for now, time to just open this topic.

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What a season. I successfully failed 10 weeks in a row on Level 7 after being the first to get there thanks to George Kittle not catching a TD on SNF of Week 17 after Rodgers and Henry combined for 5 TDs for me earlier in the day...

But thanks to me forgetting how tiebreakers work, none of that would have mattered anyway at least. Congrats to Camden on succeeding when it counted and making a nice come-from-behind victory.

Ten weeks on level seven is rough, I think I was there for seven weeks myself.

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Thanks for hosting!

I spent the final half of the season stuck on Level 5, every week I got 1 game but not both. And I was too bad at tiebreakers so I was unable to skip.
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Cody11533 posted...

And I was too bad at tiebreakers so I was unable to skip.

I understand that, I did want to compile all my tiebreakers and kind of make a discussion of keepable/droppable ones, but more after I get the discussion of the more important things.

aka: Level 4 and more topics of rearranging this stuff.

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Level 4 is in the wrong spot. Definitely easier than level 3, probably easier than level 2 (where you can easily get stuck for quite a while). Maybe switch 3 and 4 around for next year.

Thanks for running it, I still enjoyed it despite having a bad year (again). Got stuck on level 2, 3 and 5 for various lengths of time. Only got through 3 by using bonus points. I didn't bother with the last couple of weeks once I couldn't win, still doubt I would have made it through level 5 anyway.

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Bump for time being. So is that suggesting my Level 4 is good? Also, so it's not easier than Level 2 (I know Spreads needs to move back regardless anyway), what kind of effort should be made? 15+ on the high side? I know I probably need to make the low side 7- so that it's a full one score difference (and more tantalizing).

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Man... Nothing.

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I was stuck on Level 4 until he end, so I can't help you with that
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I passed Level 4 on the first attempt, so I also can't help. My personal grudge is with Level 7 in that I dislike it and would rather do Level 8's challenge. Maybe it's because I suck at it, but it feels like guessing 3 individuals who are going to score 4 cumulative TDs any given week (and with the restriction that they must all score in a specific way) is more heavily skewed towards luck than knowledge of players/teams unlike a lot of the other levels where it feels a bit more balanced between the two.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I also feel like in say, the Peyton Manning era, that was easier to diagnose, since there were sometimes multiple guys throwing 40+ TDs which made guessing certain players from those teams way more reliable. Then it would just come down to picking a rusher that week to come through.

I got through Level 4 first shot - it was the only one besides Level 1 where I can say that. I think a lot of people did beat it first try.

I probably did fluke it by having the team I thought would lose easily win easily that week, although that won't usually happen. Naming the winning team would make it slightly harder I guess. Having as bunch of terrible teams in the league probably does make a 10 pt win easy enough to pick.

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Oh, yeah, that's a good point that I forgot about because the team I was picking (since I wasn't sure if you had to pick a team at the time) won. But I definitely agree that it should be required to pick the correct team.

theawesomestevr posted...

My personal grudge is with Level 7 in that I dislike it and would rather do Level 8's challenge. Maybe it's because I suck at it, but it feels like guessing 3 individuals who are going to score 4 cumulative TDs any given week (and with the restriction that they must all score in a specific way) is more heavily skewed towards luck than knowledge of players/teams unlike a lot of the other levels where it feels a bit more balanced between the two.

To me, it's an easier level when you do fantasy. Not everyone has time to watch games, but a lot of people may have the ability to look at just what kind of players are trending upwards and what teams allow more TDs to that position. Like far too many people just named the obvious Thomas, Hopkins, Buccaneer dudes, Julio, etc. Regardless of opponents or potential injuries. Sometimes, yes, it's luck. But a lot of this is based on luck and some knowledge, and Level 7 is more than just 'hey, what teams are good and what ones are bad.'

Ringworm posted...

Naming the winning team would make it slightly harder I guess. Having as bunch of terrible teams in the league probably does make a 10 pt win easy enough to pick.

See, I don't think the winning team makes it that much harder when you're naming stuff based on terrible teams. Sometimes yes, it'd bring something to become harder because of something like one Falcons game that the obvious pick was the opposing team then suddenly turns out Falcons upset. But I think that feels good when you pick the right game but the wrong team and end up correct anyway. I think that fits for a Level 3 thing to be after some people spent a lot of time on Underdog picking.

However 10 pts still seems low. Maybe two full scores? So 14 difference to make it truly harder? But rise the "close" side to 7?

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WickIebee posted...

To me, it's an easier level when you do fantasy. Not everyone has time to watch games, but a lot of people may have the ability to look at just what kind of players are trending upwards and what teams allow more TDs to that position. Like far too many people just named the obvious Thomas, Hopkins, Buccaneer dudes, Julio, etc. Regardless of opponents or potential injuries. Sometimes, yes, it's luck. But a lot of this is based on luck and some knowledge, and Level 7 is more than just 'hey, what teams are good and what ones are bad.'

Eh, I think just pulling up TD leaders and looking at teams they're playing doesn't really require you to play fantasy football (and isn't really very football knowledge-based in general). There are also often guys like Julio who get monster receiving yards but almost never score.

And stuff like picking which Bucs or Lions receiver this year was going to catch a TD in a game is completely inconsistent and luck-based regardless of their opponent. This year came down more to picking Michael Thomas and Dalvin Cook on the right week where they both happened to score since McCaffrey ran into a drought out of nowhere.

theawesomestevr posted...

Eh, I think just pulling up TD leaders and looking at teams they're playing doesn't really require you to play fantasy football (and isn't really very football knowledge-based in general). There are also often guys like Julio who get monster receiving yards but almost never score.

And stuff like picking which Bucs or Lions receiver this year was going to catch a TD in a game is completely inconsistent and luck-based regardless of their opponent. This year came down more to picking Michael Thomas and Dalvin Cook on the right week where they both happened to score since McCaffrey ran into a drought out of nowhere.

See, I didn't say requires I'm saying you that Fantasy is the easiest way to look at Level 7. People look too easily at "I lost this week, time to pick the same people that have done this all year in an effort to get this correct."

And then got stuck on Level 7. Like waiting on McCaffrey to suddenly burst when if you looked at Carolina's offense... they had none under Kyle Allen. His drought wasn't out of nowhere, it was teams seeing that he was literally the one player to stop on the line, and as Panthers OL got hurt, McCaffrey could do nothing. He faced no teams that were weak against the run at that time.

When you pick the names everyone knows, you don't tend to pay attention to what happened. You just look at the TDs at the end and complain about being unlucky. You shouldn't rely on luck, and people who failed a lot on Level 7 this year really were doing just that.

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WickIebee posted...

See, I didn't say requires I'm saying you that Fantasy is the easiest way to look at Level 7. People look too easily at "I lost this week, time to pick the same people that have done this all year in an effort to get this correct."

That's actually the strategy that led to me being unsuccessful. Granted, I was in a different position because of how early I got there, but if I had just stuck to the same guys each week, I would have advanced out of Level 7 and with plenty of weeks to advance out of Level 8 to boot.

WickIebee posted...

And then got stuck on Level 7. Like waiting on McCaffrey to suddenly burst when if you looked at Carolina's offense... they had none under Kyle Allen. His drought wasn't out of nowhere, it was teams seeing that he was literally the one player to stop on the line, and as Panthers OL got hurt, McCaffrey could do nothing. He faced no teams that were weak against the run at that time.When you pick the names everyone knows, you don't tend to pay attention to what happened. You just look at the TDs at the end and complain about being unlucky. You shouldn't rely on luck, and people who failed a lot on Level 7 this year really were doing just that.

This didn't ring true to me, and after looking it up, this is just factually and demonstrably incorrect.

McCaffrey averaged under 4 yards a carry with 0 TDs against one of the worst rush defenses in the league when facing the Redskins.

He lit up the Titans who were one of the top 12 rushing defenses at the end of the season (granted, I don't remember where they were in Week 9) for 160+ yards and 2 TDs

Week 10, he finally managed to score a TD in the 4th quarter once against one of the league's worst rush defenses at the time in the Green Bay Packers, so congrats if you picked him that week and didn't get screwed on your WR pick (pretty sure no one advanced that week, but I could be wrong).

He followed that up with 0 TDs against the Falcons who I'm guessing were one of the worser rush Ds at the time, but I don't have the stats to prove it. They finished just inside the top half of the league in rush defense. In the rematch against the Falcons, he averaged almost 5 yards per carry. Actually, in the first game he averaged exactly 5 yards per carry. Falcons didn't shut him down at all, yet he had 0 TDS.

The New Orleans Saints then played him Week 12, and they had a top 4 rush defense at the end of the season. They must have shut him down, right? Right. They did. He averaged under 3 yards a carry that game. But guess what? He also scored a rushing TD. Same thing happened Week 17 against the Saints where he had 9 carries for 26 yards, but again scored a TD in a 42-10 beatdown by the Saints over the Panthers. Carolina scored one time and it happened to be on one of his 9 carries. (Edit: I initially said it was the Saints' back-ups, but I think they actually played their starters in this game, so nvm, but my point still stands)

Almost all these stats are bearing out exactly what I said about how luck-based TDs are. There are absolutely factors you can point to that will increase your odds, but they are absolutely way more luck-based than knowledge-based especially in 2019's NFL.

Really, looking back at it, McCaffrey was consistenly a solid pick no matter who his opponent was and whether or not has was shut down until Week 11 where he failed to score 3 out of 4 weeks. The 3 weeks he failed to score were all against opponents you wouldn't have thought he'd struggle against (Falcons, Redskins, and Faclons again; and very arguably he didn't struggle against the Falcons), and the one week you would have thought he wouldn't score (against the Saints), he did.

That just futher illustrates that picking the same guys regardless of opponents is actually a better strategy and not following it was my undoing. That said, it's ridiculous that following the optimal strategy means you just have to sacrifice weeks picking the same guys until the right week hits.

Week 10 was a calling for that. Green Bay shored up a lot of their rush defenses and again, doesn't change one major thing. Teams caught on by that point that Kyle Allen was not good and teams around there went to keep McCaffrey out of the end zone. Plus, doesn't answer whether or not OL was injured during that time, which it's not like I can answer either.

But it's still like "hey let's sit on McCaffrey for all of those weeks" instead of trusting in a better team against another run defense.

Like, at nearly every point past the halfway point of the season literally the correct answer in all but one week was "RB that is against the Jaguars." The only times it really wasn't, was Tampa Bay and when Mack was hurt during second Colts matchup.

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Either way, not changing Level 7 just because of people that play the wrong way and hate it because of that.

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What I'd prefer more of is fixes for next year, as if next year comes and people complain about the same old stuff they did for past few seasons because of them not changing, then it's on the fact that no one had discussions in this topic about changes.

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Well, good to know the response is going to be to ignore most of what was said and respond with something along the lines of "lol, you shoud have just picked the starting rb playing the Jaguars" as though that's not 100% hindsight and not based on luck.

Anyway, keep things the same if you want them that way, and change them if you want to change them. Don't see much point in anything else being said.