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KamikazePotato 02/27/20 10:33:28 PM #153: |
xp1337 posted...
There is a Democratic establishment, I think it's fair to say that most of them probably don't like Sanders. It's not fair to say they're scheming to rob him. Hell, it's not even fair to say they're some monolithic organization following a singular will. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html The Times has interviewed 93 party officials all of them superdelegates, who could have a say on the nominee at the convention and found overwhelming opposition to handing the Vermont senator the nomination if he arrived with the most delegates but fell short of a majority. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 02/27/20 10:35:11 PM #154: |
That's the article I was talking about
--- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 02/27/20 10:43:56 PM #155: |
Don't worry, gang
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233123746568900609 --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 02/27/20 10:46:30 PM #156: |
yes thanks i know about that article
--- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 02/27/20 10:49:57 PM #157: |
So polls that sample like 1,000 people total. Good. Sample sizes 12% of the group large, no dice? Lol
--- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 02/27/20 10:56:34 PM #158: |
Corrik7 posted...
So polls that sample like 1,000 people total. Good. Sample sizes 12% of the group large, no dice? LolSmall representative samples are far more informative than large non-representative samples --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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xp1337 02/27/20 11:01:34 PM #159: |
Corrik7 posted...
So polls that sample like 1,000 people total. Good. Sample sizes 12% of the group large, no dice? Lolhttps://twitter.com/austin_walker/status/806390745330499586 --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 02/27/20 11:05:20 PM #160: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
Small representative samples are far more informative than large non-representative samplesAnd what makes you think the Democratic samples in small polls with 36% Dems, 33% Indy, and 31% GOP has representative Dems polled? And what makes you think this 12% of those talked to here weren't representative? --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 02/27/20 11:24:39 PM #161: |
Corrik7 posted...
And what makes you think the Democratic samples in small polls with 36% Dems, 33% Indy, and 31% GOP has representative Dems polled? And what makes you think this 12% of those talked to here weren't representative?If the pollster is good at sampling, the margin of error in the democratic subset of your hypothetical 1000 person poll is ~1/sqrt(360) ~= 5%. The people who specifically wanted to comment to the NYT are more likely to be those that have a strong opinion about how the process should go. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 02/27/20 11:44:24 PM #162: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
If the pollster is good at sampling, the margin of error in the democratic subset of your hypothetical 1000 person poll is ~1/sqrt(360) ~= 5%. The people who specifically wanted to comment to the NYT are more likely to be those that have a strong opinion about how the process should go.Sounds like an assumption there. "People who want to talk to NYT are more likely to be anti Bernie". Okee dokee. Glad you were able to deduce that somehow. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 02/27/20 11:45:52 PM #163: |
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
So you're saying Bernie would have won.Bernie couldn't even put together a campaign to beat Hillary so I don't know why you assume he could beat Trump. But yes if Bernie ran the exact same campaign as Hillary but there was no last minute inference by the FBI, then he would have won. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 02/27/20 11:50:26 PM #164: |
TheRock1525 posted...
Bernie couldn't even put together a campaign to beat Hillary so I don't know why you assume he could beat Trump. I look forward to you vigorously arguing that Elizabeth Warren, Kamala, Booker, Mayor Pete, etc can never win in future Presidential elections. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 02/27/20 11:52:10 PM #165: |
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
I look forward to you vigorously arguing that Elizabeth Warren, Kamala, Booker, Mayor Pete, etc can never win in future Presidential elections.I mean they can't so I don't know what your point is. Especially Warren, with her age and the most open field in recent history, she failed to make any headway. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 02/27/20 11:56:47 PM #166: |
Youre arguing that if youve ever lost a primary you cant win a future election.
Silly argument, as it presumes matchups and strategy are totally irrelevant. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 02/28/20 12:05:40 AM #167: |
This genuinely makes me sad. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Ashethan 02/28/20 12:07:19 AM #168: |
I think Bernie would've done better in the 2016 election than Hillary. Hillary had a lot of baggage on top of loads of Sexism. In fact I think Elizabeth Warren would've done better in 2016 than Hillary. I'm not sure if Bernie Sanders is the best shot at beating Trump, but if he's the candidate I definitely hope he is. (I don't think Biden is, either. And Bloomberg probably loses the popular vote.) Not sure we really have a candidate that's a clear winner against Trump here. Bernie will probably energize our base, but he'll also energize Republicans. And then you have moderates who say "Blue No matter who!" but what they really mean is "You progressives better vote for OUR Candidate. But don't count on us voting for yours!" (Just the moderates. There's a lot of liberals out there who truly say "Blue No Matter Who" and mean it. Even if it's Bloomberg, and they have to clean up the vomit from the ballot box from having to make that kind of vote)
--- Board 8 Mafia Archive: ashchive.altervista.org ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 02/28/20 12:15:16 AM #169: |
ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Youre arguing that if youve ever lost a primary you cant win a future election.Not what I argued at all. Seriously, where did I argue that? It's entirely possible Bernie is in a stronger position than he was 4 years ago. Especially since socialism has a +8-10 point favorability since 2016. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 02/28/20 12:15:39 AM #170: |
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-surges-in-south-carolina/
This is my fault for being hopeful. Sorry guys. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 02/28/20 12:16:38 AM #171: |
Ashethan posted...
Bernie will probably energize our base, but he'll also energize Republicans.Anyone will energize Trump's base. A 2x4 with an angry face painted on it will energize Trump's base. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 02/28/20 12:33:49 AM #172: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
Pray the plague awayMan, now Colbert's stealing my jokes...! --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Suprak the Stud 02/28/20 12:37:55 AM #173: |
TheRock1525 posted...
Anyone will energize Trump's base. Sounds like that guy might raise my taxes, tbqh. --- Moops? "I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion." ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 02/28/20 1:00:40 AM #174: |
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1233252059635384320?s=19
A better poll for Bernie. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Ashethan 02/28/20 1:18:22 AM #175: |
TheRock1525 posted...
Anyone will energize Trump's base. Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option. --- Board 8 Mafia Archive: ashchive.altervista.org ... Copied to Clipboard!
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StealThisSheen 02/28/20 1:27:59 AM #176: |
Ashethan posted...
Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option. Every Republican is "his base" right now, is the problem. That's the big difference between 2016 and now. --- Seplito Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 02/28/20 1:38:22 AM #177: |
StealThisSheen posted...
Every Republican is "his base" right now, is the problem. That's the big difference between 2016 and now.89% of Republicans voted for Trump and his approval rating is 90% among Republicans so nothing changed since 2016. His base is his base is his base. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 02/28/20 1:40:59 AM #178: |
Ashethan posted...
Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option. A lot of Democrats will energize them to vote against the Democrat. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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StealThisSheen 02/28/20 1:54:12 AM #179: |
TheRock1525 posted...
89% of Republicans voted for Trump and his approval rating is 90% among Republicans so nothing changed since 2016. His base hasn't increased, but the people that "held their nose" before are now much more firmly in his corner, so there's no chance of them going anywhere. Meanwhile, the left is trying to eat each other. One is much more worrying come time to actually show up and vote in the general. --- Seplito Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red13n 02/28/20 1:54:50 AM #180: |
Ashethan posted...
Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option. Anyone willing to vote for Trump prior is likely going to vote for him again. --- "First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TheRock1525 02/28/20 1:57:16 AM #181: |
StealThisSheen posted...
His base hasn't increased, but the people that "held their nose" before are now much more firmly in his corner, so there's no chance of them going anywhere.The issue isn't Trump's base, it's the swing of independents. Its what decides literally every election now going forward thanks to the polarizing nature of modern politics. You can't make choices based on "how will Trump's base react" because that same base is just gonna migrate to someone else anyway. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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KamikazePotato 02/28/20 1:58:06 AM #182: |
StealThisSheen posted...
His base hasn't increased, but the people that "held their nose" before are now much more firmly in his corner, so there's no chance of them going anywhere.They were never going to go anywhere in the first place. The 'hold your nose' thing is basically a lie Republicans told themselves to justify the fact that they will literally always vote GOP. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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StealThisSheen 02/28/20 2:00:47 AM #183: |
The issue isn't Trump's base by itself. The issue is Trump's base vs. the Democratic nominee's base. The swing of independents is big, but there's a present issue of one base being guaranteed to show up in full and one base not sharing that guarantee.
The left is much more likely to stay home or do dumb shit like write in or vote Jill Stein. --- Seplito Nash, Smelling Like the Vault since 1996 Step FOUR! Get Paid! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Wanglicious 02/28/20 2:02:39 AM #184: |
considering republicans are actively coming out in droves to vote for him in the technical republican primary, yeah.
they absolutely want him back. --- "Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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banananor 02/28/20 2:07:16 AM #185: |
If it's Bernie 30, Biden 25, Pete 20, Klobuchar 15 I think it's within the scope of Klobuchar's delegates to run off and endorse the next most similar candidate
If it was like... Biden 30, Sanders 25 and Warren 25 you'd probably expect the two progressives to work something out --- You did indeed stab me in the back. However, you are only level one, whilst I am level 50. That means I should remain uninjured. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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metroid composite 02/28/20 3:23:35 AM #186: |
Nelson_Mandela posted...
I'd say Biden is virtually guaranteed to win the nomination nowUhh... The RCP national polling average is still like...Bernie 29% Biden 18%. The polling in California (which is now a Super Tuesday state) suggests that Biden is likely to fall below 15% there and get zero delegates. (Being the state with the most delegates this matters). He has a path to the nomination (most likely path being a brokered convention with superdelegates picking him despite having fewer state delegates). And Brokered convention is looking pretty likely now. But I don't think the superdelegates are "guaranteed" to pick him. --- Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 02/28/20 3:24:13 AM #187: |
metroid composite posted...
Uhh...Question is does he surge into the super Tuesday's with south Carolinas result. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 02/28/20 3:25:53 AM #188: |
Biden will not get zero delegates in CA; even if he fails to break 15 statewide, he's close enough that he'll be over 15 in a bunch of districts.
(Also realistically if he wins SC he'll probably get a bounce and clear 15 overall anyway). --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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KamikazePotato 02/28/20 4:29:53 AM #189: |
https://theintercept.com/2020/02/27/dnc-superdelegate-convention-gop-donor/
WILLIAM OWEN, a Tennessee-based Democratic National Committee member backing an effort to use so-called superdelegates to select the partys presidential nominee potentially subverting the candidate with the most voter support is a Republican donor and health care lobbyist. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 02/28/20 5:55:58 AM #190: |
ftr I am pretty confident that, to the extent that a consensus against Bernie exists among "the establishment," it mostly has to do with a fear that he'll cause Dems lose the presidency and/or downballot races. I don't think desperate opposition to him on policy grounds is nearly as widespread as many Bernie supporters think.
--- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Wanglicious 02/28/20 6:28:03 AM #191: |
they'd rather have trump.
i guess i can agree that it's not a disagreement on policy though, technically speaking. it's just power. he is not one of them, he would not have one of them, and their authority would be shown to be worthless. those higher up already are hedging bets so they'll be fine, they know how to play. --- "Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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metroid composite 02/28/20 6:49:28 AM #192: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
(Also realistically if he wins SC he'll probably get a bounce and clear 15 overall anyway).I mean...maybe. Then again, Bernie won Nevada by about 25 points, and doesn't seem to have gotten much of a bounce out of that. Bounces are weird. (I also kind-of expect South Carolina to be seen as proxy for "the black people's choice", so the bounce will be felt in southern states like Georgia that are heavily black, but less so in California which is heavily white, Latino, and Asian--fun fact there's more Asians in California than African Americans). Biden's also way, way down in California right now. Latest poll is like: Sanders 36% Warren 18% Biden 10% Buttigieg 9% https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1232648360328384512 That would need to be a hell of a bounce. And where would it come from? Sanders tends to have the most loyal voters. Maybe some of that percentage could come from Buttigeig or Warren, but it's worth noting Warren's been rising in California and Biden's been dropping (earlier polls were like Warren 15 Biden 14). People also understand that there is a 15% viability threshold, if you want to support someone other than Sanders in California, Warren is the one that's likely to be viable. (And this is anecdotal, but the one guy I know in California who liked Biden was pretty big on Warren and pretty down on Biden after watching a single debate; he still doesn't like Bernie though). There's also the fact that there have been three primaries and caucuses so far, and Biden has performed below his poll numbers in all three. "Biden's going to perform better than his poll numbers" is...possible, but I'm not really expecting it in California. Maybe he'll outperform in South Carolina--he got a big local endorsement after most polls stopped collecting data, he left New Hampshire early to start campaigning in SC early. He really invested big in SC. But California? Why would he get a outperform there? It's not like he's invested in the state. --- Cats land on their feet. Toast lands peanut butter side down. A cat with toast strapped to its back will hover above the ground in a state of quantum indecision ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Corrik7 02/28/20 6:56:25 AM #193: |
metroid composite posted...
I mean...maybe. Then again, Bernie won Nevada by about 25 points, and doesn't seem to have gotten much of a bounce out of that. Bounces are weird. (I also kind-of expect South Carolina to be seen as proxy for "the black people's choice", so the bounce will be felt in southern states like Georgia that are heavily black, but less so in California which is heavily white, Latino, and Asian--fun fact there's more Asians in California than African Americans).Sanders got a lot of negative coverage for his Nevada smackdown by a lot of news agencies. --- Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1) ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 02/28/20 6:59:37 AM #194: |
538 has Biden's CA average at 12.7. The plurality of any bounce for him would probably come from Bloomberg (11.4 in CA per 538); many of Mike's supporters used to be with Biden but switched because they thought Bloomberg was more electable. A big SC win could very plausibly bring a nontrivial chunk of them back.
--- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 02/28/20 8:28:44 AM #195: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
ftr I am pretty confident that, to the extent that a consensus against Bernie exists among "the establishment," it mostly has to do with a fear that he'll cause Dems lose the presidency and/or downballot races. I don't think desperate opposition to him on policy grounds is nearly as widespread as many Bernie supporters think. And yet for all their love for polling, they continue to forget that Bernie polls better against Trump compared to everyone but Biden, and he frequently beats Biden in those polls too. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Samurai7 02/28/20 9:08:57 AM #196: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
ftr I am pretty confident that, to the extent that a consensus against Bernie exists among "the establishment," it mostly has to do with a fear that he'll cause Dems lose the presidency and/or downballot races. I don't think desperate opposition to him on policy grounds is nearly as widespread as many Bernie supporters think. I don't know how they could expect a brokered convention to not cause more depressed voter turnout than Bernie. --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FFDragon 02/28/20 9:11:57 AM #197: |
I'll vote anyone (not Pete) so long as their nomination is above bar.
If there's fuckery, I'm just not going to vote, results be damned. I feel like I'm very much not alone in this sentiment. I very much will cut off the nose to spite the face. --- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? #theresafreakingghostafterus ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Wanglicious 02/28/20 9:18:58 AM #198: |
nothing wrong with that, and no you aren't.
the followup question: would you vote for other races or would you just not vote at all? --- "Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FFDragon 02/28/20 9:21:36 AM #199: |
If there logic is committing fuckery to preserve down ticket, I guess I wouldn't be voting at all because otherwise they'd still be getting what they want.
--- If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? #theresafreakingghostafterus ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ChaosTonyV4 02/28/20 9:21:53 AM #200: |
FFDragon posted...
I'll vote anyone (not Pete) so long as their nomination is above bar. You are very much not alone. That large, loud, and mean group of Bernie Bros the moderates complain about? Yeah, Dems are getting ~0% of that vote if they pull some fuckery. --- Phantom Dust. "I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado ... Copied to Clipboard!
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neonreaper 02/28/20 9:36:45 AM #201: |
oh man I wish I was a Republican
--- Donny: Are they gonna hurt us, Walter? Walter: No, Donny. These men are cowards. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Nelson_Mandela 02/28/20 9:50:38 AM #202: |
FFDragon posted...
I'll vote anyone (not Pete) so long as their nomination is above bar.How are you defining fuckery? Let's look at these 3 brokered convention scenarios where Biden hypothetically gets the nomination over Bernie: 1. Bernie with a plurality of delegates but Biden has more popular votes 2. Biden with a plurality of delegates but Bernie has more popular votes 3. Bernie and Biden with very similar delegate count and popular vote (let's say within a few percentage points) Which of those would make you stay home if Biden gets the nomination? --- "A more mature answer than I expected."~ Jakyl25 "Sephy's point is right."~ Inviso ... Copied to Clipboard!
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