Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 274: Rebuttigieg

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KamikazePotato
02/27/20 10:33:28 PM
#153:


xp1337 posted...
There is a Democratic establishment, I think it's fair to say that most of them probably don't like Sanders. It's not fair to say they're scheming to rob him. Hell, it's not even fair to say they're some monolithic organization following a singular will.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html

The Times has interviewed 93 party officials all of them superdelegates, who could have a say on the nominee at the convention and found overwhelming opposition to handing the Vermont senator the nomination if he arrived with the most delegates but fell short of a majority.

...

In a reflection of the establishments wariness about Mr. Sanders, only nine of the 93 superdelegates interviewed said that Mr. Sanders should become the nominee purely on the basis of arriving at the convention with a plurality, if he was short of a majority.

That anxiety has led even superdelegates to suggest ideas that sound ripped from the pages of a political drama.

In recent weeks, Democrats have placed a steady stream of calls to Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who opted against running for president nearly a year ago, suggesting that he can emerge as a white knight nominee at a brokered convention in part on the theory that he may carry his home state in a general election.

Others are urging former President Barack Obama to get involved to broker a truce either among the four moderate candidates or between the Sanders and establishment wings, according to three people familiar with those conversations.

...

Others in the party view Mr. Sanders as such an existential threat that they see stopping him from winning the nomination as less risky than a public convention fight. Many feared that putting Mr. Sanders on the top of the ticket could cost Democrats the political gains of the Trump era, a period when the party won control of the House, took governors mansions in deep red states and flipped statehouses across the country.

Bernie seems to have declared war on the Democratic Party and its caused panic in the House ranks, said Representative Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, a supporter of former Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York. Private polling of Mr. Gottheimers northern New Jersey district, for example, shows a double-digit gap in the approval ratings of Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders.

Representative Veronica Escobar of Texas said that if Mr. Sanders arrived at the convention with 40 percent of the delegates, it wouldnt be enough to convince her to vote for him on the second ballot.

If 60 percent is not with Bernie Sanders, I think that says something, I really do, she said.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 10:35:11 PM
#154:


That's the article I was talking about

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 10:43:56 PM
#155:


Don't worry, gang

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233123746568900609

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xp1337
02/27/20 10:46:30 PM
#156:


yes thanks i know about that article

  1. I don't believe they'd act that way en masse if that situation was actually put to them.
  2. Thanks NYT, you interviewed 93/771 but I'd really appreciate a breakdown on who they are and if they've already endorsed. At least one comment is from a superdelegate who is pledged to Biden, another it really sounds like he's for Buttigieg though the article does not explicitly states as such, no kidding he's going to be talking against Sanders at this stage
  3. I think there's some semantic games going on here. I think some of them are pushing back against the idea of just coronating a plurality Sanders so they can - as Chris mentioned - extract concessions from him at the convention before ultimately voting for him. Maybe assurances on the VP slot since it's basically the only thing of value in play there.
  4. We're still talking about 93 out of 771 here. That's 12% (Less actually because not all 93 of them are even playing with this). Not insignificant but please. One word from Obama or Pelosi saying "y'all are nuts respect the will of the voters" and this dies immediately. I don't think for a second Obama doesn't see the trainwreck that would be coming if there was some actual effort to swing it on a second ballot
  5. The actual scenario to "worry" about is one where Sanders has a narrow plurality. Silver posed an extreme thought experiment where one candidate had a single less delegate than the plurality candidate but had won the last 14 contests in a row and general election polling showed the technical plurality leader getting blown out by 20 points. Obviously an unrealistically extreme case but as long as Sanders avoids treading towards that territory I don't think there's much to worry about. But the theoretical existence of such a scenario means that lots of superdelegates will hedge and play the semantic/leverage game.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 10:49:57 PM
#157:


So polls that sample like 1,000 people total. Good. Sample sizes 12% of the group large, no dice? Lol

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 10:56:34 PM
#158:


Corrik7 posted...
So polls that sample like 1,000 people total. Good. Sample sizes 12% of the group large, no dice? Lol
Small representative samples are far more informative than large non-representative samples

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xp1337
02/27/20 11:01:34 PM
#159:


Corrik7 posted...
So polls that sample like 1,000 people total. Good. Sample sizes 12% of the group large, no dice? Lol
https://twitter.com/austin_walker/status/806390745330499586

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Corrik7
02/27/20 11:05:20 PM
#160:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Small representative samples are far more informative than large non-representative samples
And what makes you think the Democratic samples in small polls with 36% Dems, 33% Indy, and 31% GOP has representative Dems polled? And what makes you think this 12% of those talked to here weren't representative?

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 11:24:39 PM
#161:


Corrik7 posted...
And what makes you think the Democratic samples in small polls with 36% Dems, 33% Indy, and 31% GOP has representative Dems polled? And what makes you think this 12% of those talked to here weren't representative?
If the pollster is good at sampling, the margin of error in the democratic subset of your hypothetical 1000 person poll is ~1/sqrt(360) ~= 5%. The people who specifically wanted to comment to the NYT are more likely to be those that have a strong opinion about how the process should go.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 11:44:24 PM
#162:


LordoftheMorons posted...
If the pollster is good at sampling, the margin of error in the democratic subset of your hypothetical 1000 person poll is ~1/sqrt(360) ~= 5%. The people who specifically wanted to comment to the NYT are more likely to be those that have a strong opinion about how the process should go.
Sounds like an assumption there.

"People who want to talk to NYT are more likely to be anti Bernie". Okee dokee. Glad you were able to deduce that somehow.

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TheRock1525
02/27/20 11:45:52 PM
#163:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
So you're saying Bernie would have won.
Bernie couldn't even put together a campaign to beat Hillary so I don't know why you assume he could beat Trump.

But yes if Bernie ran the exact same campaign as Hillary but there was no last minute inference by the FBI, then he would have won.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/27/20 11:50:26 PM
#164:


TheRock1525 posted...
Bernie couldn't even put together a campaign to beat Hillary so I don't know why you assume he could beat Trump.

I look forward to you vigorously arguing that Elizabeth Warren, Kamala, Booker, Mayor Pete, etc can never win in future Presidential elections.

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TheRock1525
02/27/20 11:52:10 PM
#165:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
I look forward to you vigorously arguing that Elizabeth Warren, Kamala, Booker, Mayor Pete, etc can never win in future Presidential elections.
I mean they can't so I don't know what your point is. Especially Warren, with her age and the most open field in recent history, she failed to make any headway.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/27/20 11:56:47 PM
#166:


Youre arguing that if youve ever lost a primary you cant win a future election.

Silly argument, as it presumes matchups and strategy are totally irrelevant.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/28/20 12:05:40 AM
#167:



This genuinely makes me sad.

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Ashethan
02/28/20 12:07:19 AM
#168:


I think Bernie would've done better in the 2016 election than Hillary. Hillary had a lot of baggage on top of loads of Sexism. In fact I think Elizabeth Warren would've done better in 2016 than Hillary. I'm not sure if Bernie Sanders is the best shot at beating Trump, but if he's the candidate I definitely hope he is. (I don't think Biden is, either. And Bloomberg probably loses the popular vote.) Not sure we really have a candidate that's a clear winner against Trump here. Bernie will probably energize our base, but he'll also energize Republicans. And then you have moderates who say "Blue No matter who!" but what they really mean is "You progressives better vote for OUR Candidate. But don't count on us voting for yours!" (Just the moderates. There's a lot of liberals out there who truly say "Blue No Matter Who" and mean it. Even if it's Bloomberg, and they have to clean up the vomit from the ballot box from having to make that kind of vote)

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TheRock1525
02/28/20 12:15:16 AM
#169:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Youre arguing that if youve ever lost a primary you cant win a future election.

Silly argument, as it presumes matchups and strategy are totally irrelevant.
Not what I argued at all.

Seriously, where did I argue that? It's entirely possible Bernie is in a stronger position than he was 4 years ago. Especially since socialism has a +8-10 point favorability since 2016.

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Suprak the Stud
02/28/20 12:15:39 AM
#170:


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-surges-in-south-carolina/

This is my fault for being hopeful. Sorry guys.

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TheRock1525
02/28/20 12:16:38 AM
#171:


Ashethan posted...
Bernie will probably energize our base, but he'll also energize Republicans.
Anyone will energize Trump's base.

A 2x4 with an angry face painted on it will energize Trump's base.

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LordoftheMorons
02/28/20 12:33:49 AM
#172:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Pray the plague away
Man, now Colbert's stealing my jokes...!

I tried to come up with something that rhymed with "pray" but gave up

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Suprak the Stud
02/28/20 12:37:55 AM
#173:


TheRock1525 posted...
Anyone will energize Trump's base.

A 2x4 with an angry face painted on it will energize Trump's base.

Sounds like that guy might raise my taxes, tbqh.

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TheRock1525
02/28/20 1:00:40 AM
#174:


https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1233252059635384320?s=19

A better poll for Bernie.

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Ashethan
02/28/20 1:18:22 AM
#175:


TheRock1525 posted...
Anyone will energize Trump's base.

Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option.

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StealThisSheen
02/28/20 1:27:59 AM
#176:


Ashethan posted...
Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option.

Every Republican is "his base" right now, is the problem. That's the big difference between 2016 and now.

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TheRock1525
02/28/20 1:38:22 AM
#177:


StealThisSheen posted...
Every Republican is "his base" right now, is the problem. That's the big difference between 2016 and now.
89% of Republicans voted for Trump and his approval rating is 90% among Republicans so nothing changed since 2016.

His base is his base is his base.

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red sox 777
02/28/20 1:40:59 AM
#178:


Ashethan posted...
Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option.

A lot of Democrats will energize them to vote against the Democrat.

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StealThisSheen
02/28/20 1:54:12 AM
#179:


TheRock1525 posted...
89% of Republicans voted for Trump and his approval rating is 90% among Republicans so nothing changed since 2016.

His base is his base is his base.

His base hasn't increased, but the people that "held their nose" before are now much more firmly in his corner, so there's no chance of them going anywhere.

Meanwhile, the left is trying to eat each other.

One is much more worrying come time to actually show up and vote in the general.

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red13n
02/28/20 1:54:50 AM
#180:


Ashethan posted...
Yes, his base. But not the Republicans who aren't part of his cult. The ones that held their nose and voted for Trump because Hillary was the other option.

Anyone willing to vote for Trump prior is likely going to vote for him again.

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TheRock1525
02/28/20 1:57:16 AM
#181:


StealThisSheen posted...
His base hasn't increased, but the people that "held their nose" before are now much more firmly in his corner, so there's no chance of them going anywhere.

Meanwhile, the left is trying to eat each other.

One is much more worrying come time to actually show up and vote in the general.
The issue isn't Trump's base, it's the swing of independents. Its what decides literally every election now going forward thanks to the polarizing nature of modern politics.

You can't make choices based on "how will Trump's base react" because that same base is just gonna migrate to someone else anyway.

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KamikazePotato
02/28/20 1:58:06 AM
#182:


StealThisSheen posted...
His base hasn't increased, but the people that "held their nose" before are now much more firmly in his corner, so there's no chance of them going anywhere.
They were never going to go anywhere in the first place. The 'hold your nose' thing is basically a lie Republicans told themselves to justify the fact that they will literally always vote GOP.


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StealThisSheen
02/28/20 2:00:47 AM
#183:


The issue isn't Trump's base by itself. The issue is Trump's base vs. the Democratic nominee's base. The swing of independents is big, but there's a present issue of one base being guaranteed to show up in full and one base not sharing that guarantee.

The left is much more likely to stay home or do dumb shit like write in or vote Jill Stein.

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Wanglicious
02/28/20 2:02:39 AM
#184:


considering republicans are actively coming out in droves to vote for him in the technical republican primary, yeah.
they absolutely want him back.


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banananor
02/28/20 2:07:16 AM
#185:


If it's Bernie 30, Biden 25, Pete 20, Klobuchar 15 I think it's within the scope of Klobuchar's delegates to run off and endorse the next most similar candidate

If it was like... Biden 30, Sanders 25 and Warren 25 you'd probably expect the two progressives to work something out

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metroid composite
02/28/20 3:23:35 AM
#186:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
I'd say Biden is virtually guaranteed to win the nomination now
Uhh...

The RCP national polling average is still like...Bernie 29% Biden 18%. The polling in California (which is now a Super Tuesday state) suggests that Biden is likely to fall below 15% there and get zero delegates. (Being the state with the most delegates this matters).

He has a path to the nomination (most likely path being a brokered convention with superdelegates picking him despite having fewer state delegates). And Brokered convention is looking pretty likely now. But I don't think the superdelegates are "guaranteed" to pick him.

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Corrik7
02/28/20 3:24:13 AM
#187:


metroid composite posted...
Uhh...

The RCP national polling average is still like...Bernie 29% Biden 18%. The polling in California (which is now a Super Tuesday state) suggests that Biden is likely to fall below 15% there and get zero delegates. (Being the state with the most delegates this matters).

He has a path to the nomination (most likely path being a brokered convention with superdelegates picking him despite having fewer state delegates). And Brokered convention is looking pretty likely now. But I don't think the superdelegates are "guaranteed" to pick him.
Question is does he surge into the super Tuesday's with south Carolinas result.

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LordoftheMorons
02/28/20 3:25:53 AM
#188:


Biden will not get zero delegates in CA; even if he fails to break 15 statewide, he's close enough that he'll be over 15 in a bunch of districts.

(Also realistically if he wins SC he'll probably get a bounce and clear 15 overall anyway).

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KamikazePotato
02/28/20 4:29:53 AM
#189:


https://theintercept.com/2020/02/27/dnc-superdelegate-convention-gop-donor/

WILLIAM OWEN, a Tennessee-based Democratic National Committee member backing an effort to use so-called superdelegates to select the partys presidential nominee potentially subverting the candidate with the most voter support is a Republican donor and health care lobbyist.
Owen, who runs a lobbying firm called Asset & Equity Corporations, donated to Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., and Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, and gave $8,500 to a joint fundraising committee designed to benefit Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky in 2019.

...

Owen, currently registered as lobbyist for Klox Technologies, a medical product company, was quoted in the New York Times today as one of the party insiders considering an effort to block Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanderss path to the nomination at the DNC convention in Milwaukee this July.

...

The Tennessee Democrat worked in 2018 to block a Sanders-backed plan to weaken the role of superdelegates in the nomination process. If we dont have a vote, then what good are we? Owen told Politico at the time.

...

Several superdelegates are consultants to health care clients lobbying against Medicare for All. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase each employ lobbyists who simultaneously serve as superdelegates.

Chris Dodd, a former Connecticut senator and one of the superdelegates quoted by the Times today, is a lobbyist with the law firm Arnold & Porter, which represents corporate interests such as the Pharmaceutical Research & Manufacturers of America, Lloyds of London, and AT&T. Dodd has endorsed Biden for president.

...

Bloomberg, notably, has discussed efforts to poach delegates from other more moderate candidates to bring together an anti-Sanders coalition. In January, his campaign hired Alexandra Rooker, a superdelegate from California, as an adviser. Michael Nutter, the former Philadelphia mayor and DNC superdelegate, is a co-chair of the Bloomberg campaign. FEC disclosures show Nutter has been paid at least $45,000 by the Bloomberg campaign.

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LordoftheMorons
02/28/20 5:55:58 AM
#190:


ftr I am pretty confident that, to the extent that a consensus against Bernie exists among "the establishment," it mostly has to do with a fear that he'll cause Dems lose the presidency and/or downballot races. I don't think desperate opposition to him on policy grounds is nearly as widespread as many Bernie supporters think.

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Wanglicious
02/28/20 6:28:03 AM
#191:


they'd rather have trump.
i guess i can agree that it's not a disagreement on policy though, technically speaking. it's just power. he is not one of them, he would not have one of them, and their authority would be shown to be worthless. those higher up already are hedging bets so they'll be fine, they know how to play.


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metroid composite
02/28/20 6:49:28 AM
#192:


LordoftheMorons posted...
(Also realistically if he wins SC he'll probably get a bounce and clear 15 overall anyway).
I mean...maybe. Then again, Bernie won Nevada by about 25 points, and doesn't seem to have gotten much of a bounce out of that. Bounces are weird. (I also kind-of expect South Carolina to be seen as proxy for "the black people's choice", so the bounce will be felt in southern states like Georgia that are heavily black, but less so in California which is heavily white, Latino, and Asian--fun fact there's more Asians in California than African Americans).

Biden's also way, way down in California right now. Latest poll is like:

Sanders 36%
Warren 18%
Biden 10%
Buttigieg 9%

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1232648360328384512

That would need to be a hell of a bounce. And where would it come from? Sanders tends to have the most loyal voters. Maybe some of that percentage could come from Buttigeig or Warren, but it's worth noting Warren's been rising in California and Biden's been dropping (earlier polls were like Warren 15 Biden 14). People also understand that there is a 15% viability threshold, if you want to support someone other than Sanders in California, Warren is the one that's likely to be viable. (And this is anecdotal, but the one guy I know in California who liked Biden was pretty big on Warren and pretty down on Biden after watching a single debate; he still doesn't like Bernie though).

There's also the fact that there have been three primaries and caucuses so far, and Biden has performed below his poll numbers in all three. "Biden's going to perform better than his poll numbers" is...possible, but I'm not really expecting it in California. Maybe he'll outperform in South Carolina--he got a big local endorsement after most polls stopped collecting data, he left New Hampshire early to start campaigning in SC early. He really invested big in SC. But California? Why would he get a outperform there? It's not like he's invested in the state.

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Corrik7
02/28/20 6:56:25 AM
#193:


metroid composite posted...
I mean...maybe. Then again, Bernie won Nevada by about 25 points, and doesn't seem to have gotten much of a bounce out of that. Bounces are weird. (I also kind-of expect South Carolina to be seen as proxy for "the black people's choice", so the bounce will be felt in southern states like Georgia that are heavily black, but less so in California which is heavily white, Latino, and Asian--fun fact there's more Asians in California than African Americans).

Biden's also way, way down in California right now. Latest poll is like:

Sanders 36%
Warren 18%
Biden 10%
Buttigieg 9%

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1232648360328384512

That would need to be a hell of a bounce. And where would it come from? Sanders tends to have the most loyal voters. Maybe some of that percentage could come from Buttigeig or Warren, but it's worth noting Warren's been rising in California and Biden's been dropping (earlier polls were like Warren 15 Biden 14). People also understand that there is a 15% viability threshold, if you want to support someone other than Sanders in California, Warren is the one that's likely to be viable. (And this is anecdotal, but the one guy I know in California who liked Biden was pretty big on Warren and pretty down on Biden after watching a single debate; he still doesn't like Bernie though).

There's also the fact that there have been three primaries and caucuses so far, and Biden has performed below his poll numbers in all three. "Biden's going to perform better than his poll numbers" is...possible, but I'm not really expecting it in California. Maybe he'll outperform in South Carolina--he got a big local endorsement after most polls stopped collecting data, he left New Hampshire early to start campaigning in SC early. He really invested big in SC. But California? Why would he get a outperform there? It's not like he's invested in the state.
Sanders got a lot of negative coverage for his Nevada smackdown by a lot of news agencies.

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LordoftheMorons
02/28/20 6:59:37 AM
#194:


538 has Biden's CA average at 12.7. The plurality of any bounce for him would probably come from Bloomberg (11.4 in CA per 538); many of Mike's supporters used to be with Biden but switched because they thought Bloomberg was more electable. A big SC win could very plausibly bring a nontrivial chunk of them back.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/28/20 8:28:44 AM
#195:


LordoftheMorons posted...
ftr I am pretty confident that, to the extent that a consensus against Bernie exists among "the establishment," it mostly has to do with a fear that he'll cause Dems lose the presidency and/or downballot races. I don't think desperate opposition to him on policy grounds is nearly as widespread as many Bernie supporters think.

And yet for all their love for polling, they continue to forget that Bernie polls better against Trump compared to everyone but Biden, and he frequently beats Biden in those polls too.


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Samurai7
02/28/20 9:08:57 AM
#196:


LordoftheMorons posted...
ftr I am pretty confident that, to the extent that a consensus against Bernie exists among "the establishment," it mostly has to do with a fear that he'll cause Dems lose the presidency and/or downballot races. I don't think desperate opposition to him on policy grounds is nearly as widespread as many Bernie supporters think.

I don't know how they could expect a brokered convention to not cause more depressed voter turnout than Bernie.

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FFDragon
02/28/20 9:11:57 AM
#197:


I'll vote anyone (not Pete) so long as their nomination is above bar.

If there's fuckery, I'm just not going to vote, results be damned.

I feel like I'm very much not alone in this sentiment. I very much will cut off the nose to spite the face.

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Wanglicious
02/28/20 9:18:58 AM
#198:


nothing wrong with that, and no you aren't.
the followup question:

would you vote for other races or would you just not vote at all?

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
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FFDragon
02/28/20 9:21:36 AM
#199:


If there logic is committing fuckery to preserve down ticket, I guess I wouldn't be voting at all because otherwise they'd still be getting what they want.

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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person?
#theresafreakingghostafterus
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ChaosTonyV4
02/28/20 9:21:53 AM
#200:


FFDragon posted...
I'll vote anyone (not Pete) so long as their nomination is above bar.

If there's fuckery, I'm just not going to vote, results be damned.

I feel like I'm very much not alone in this sentiment. I very much will cut off the nose to spite the face.

You are very much not alone.

That large, loud, and mean group of Bernie Bros the moderates complain about?

Yeah, Dems are getting ~0% of that vote if they pull some fuckery.

---
Phantom Dust.
"I'll just wait for time to prove me right again." - Vlado
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neonreaper
02/28/20 9:36:45 AM
#201:


oh man I wish I was a Republican

---
Donny: Are they gonna hurt us, Walter?
Walter: No, Donny. These men are cowards.
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Nelson_Mandela
02/28/20 9:50:38 AM
#202:


FFDragon posted...
I'll vote anyone (not Pete) so long as their nomination is above bar.

If there's fuckery, I'm just not going to vote, results be damned.

I feel like I'm very much not alone in this sentiment. I very much will cut off the nose to spite the face.
How are you defining fuckery? Let's look at these 3 brokered convention scenarios where Biden hypothetically gets the nomination over Bernie:

1. Bernie with a plurality of delegates but Biden has more popular votes

2. Biden with a plurality of delegates but Bernie has more popular votes

3. Bernie and Biden with very similar delegate count and popular vote (let's say within a few percentage points)

Which of those would make you stay home if Biden gets the nomination?

---
"A more mature answer than I expected."~ Jakyl25
"Sephy's point is right."~ Inviso
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