Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

MetalmindStats posted...

If you take out the word 'indie', this is the basic impetus for x-stats, so it's a very natural impulse.

Also, I'm not altogether convinced VVVVVV evokes nostalgia of anything GameFAQs actually cares about.

you're right - but were not routinely ranking RPGs or platformers or any other grouping like we are the indies every day.

and VVVVVV is totally a nostalgia pull, it doesnt matter if a lot of this site doesnt get it!


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First time I didnt go for a crazy upset

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Kotetsu534 posted...

The Witcher 3 is going to be the biggest bomb of the big contenders, and isn't even going to be a fair bomb, because there's no reason to think it should be shooting for 80% on an Assassin's Creed game (which I'm sure sucks, but isn't going to be anti-voted to hell like Call of Duty).

If it actually hits 80% then lol me.

I mean we've clearly turned against AC, but if Witcher breaks 80%, I'd chalk that up more to AC just being bottom of the barrel now than Witcher being a world beater.
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I have The Witcher 3 making it to the finals

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seriously who nominated Destiny
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whew that first minute or two had me worried about ME3
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this all checks out

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Oh wow The Witcher is a monster (or AC is just like Dragon Age and has totally fallen off a cliff).

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Kotetsu534 posted...

Oh wow The Witcher is a monster (or AC is just like Dragon Age and has totally fallen off a cliff).

Both

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yeah like I said if Witcher 3 breaks 80% it just means AC is bottom of the barrel now

not to say Witcher 3 isn't looking good but yeah this is definitely Odyssey being really bad as well
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You know, I was kinda fiddling with the idea of taking Civ 5 over Black Flag when I was doing my writeups. Hmm.


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The Mana Sword posted...

You know, I was kinda fiddling with the idea of taking Civ 5 over Black Flag when I was doing my writeups. Hmm.

it's honestly not a bad upset

although Civilization has also never been any good here
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I know I went a bit overboard with my percentage for Witcher, but we really should have no expectations for AC any longer, Odyssey in particular. Black Flag is probably ever so slightly stronger

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yikes! either witcher 3 has the performance of the round or civ 5 has that match. odyssey should be better than mk11?

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The Witcher III is literally the only game in the bracket that can lay the SFF hammer on AC:O. The whole point of Origins and Odyssey was to court the Witcher fanbase, which worked to an extent, but it's not going to help it in internet polls.

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transcience posted...

yikes! either witcher 3 has the performance of the round or civ 5 has that match. odyssey should be better than mk11?

i would confidently take mario odyssey over mk11

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oh nice I have the highest Stardew Valley and ME3 picks

I might actually get two points today!
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I changed to Civ 5 last minute so I'll be happy if at least one of my last minute changes pays off.

I would pick MK11 over ACO. Can't see AC getting 50% unless it's something heavily antivoted or completely unknown.

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obra dinn is bottom 3 so far this contest.

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I would've voted for it against a lot of stuff but Galaxy 2 is my favorite game in the bracket!

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Witcher 3 trying to make me get the point for it after all, nice.

My favorites bracket has Galaxy 2 winning as well. I'm not sure against what. Almost all my favorites are in the bottom half.

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Kotetsu534 posted...

The Witcher 3 is going to be the biggest bomb of the big contenders, and isn't even going to be a fair bomb, because there's no reason to think it should be shooting for 80% on an Assassin's Creed game (which I'm sure sucks, but isn't going to be anti-voted to hell like Call of Duty).

If it actually hits 80% then lol me.

Lol

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Leonhart4 posted...

I would've voted for it against a lot of stuff but Galaxy 2 is my favorite game in the bracket!

Very nice, mine too!

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Lol

Yeah , idk what he was thinking. AC is the perfect opponent for W3 to destroy in round 1. Same target demographic and systems. Neither is exclusive and AC/Ubisoft are the biggest enemies to gamers on message boards next to EA and multiplayer only games.

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Master Moltar posted...

We saw one Odyssey go for 86% and we might see another Odyssey get 86% put up on it!

I wrote this as a joke but I should've just rolled with it because we're getting pretty close!
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Previous Results: Xenoblade looks really good in its win, Overwatch doesn't have any problem beating Death Stranding, Ori pulls off the upset, and Three Houses does not impress in its victory.

Crew Predictions: 28/32

Next Round Thoughts: Xenoblade should have an easy time next round, and Three Houses is still the favorite for R2. It's going to have to step up though if it wants to show it stands a chance against Xenoblade.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 28
Kleenex: 28
transience: 27
Leonhart: 26
Guest: 25

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Xenoblade, Kleenex gets the point for Overwatch, and Leon gets the point for FE.

Moltar: 11
Guest: 6 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes, MetalmindStats)
Kleenex: 5
transience: 4
Leonhart: 3

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Round 1 Fallout: New Vegas vs. The Stanley Parable

Moltars Analysis

So Fallout beat Bioshock Infinite in 2015, right? Well, in the only previous poll for The Stanley Parable, it lost handily to Bioshock Infinite in it! I think that means New Vegas wins this due to the maths!

Plus New Vegas >= Fallout 4 and VVVVVV > Stanley Parable

Moltars Bracket: Fallout: New Vegas

Moltars Prediction: Fallout: New Vegas 80%

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transiences Analysis

New Vegas should be pretty strong. Stanley Parable.. not so much. It's a quirky little narrative thing that people certainly like, but it didn't spread super widely and I think it was more of a game that came and went about 5 years ago. I'm not sure if New Vegas has a wide enough playbase to go super high here, but it should be able to get around the 80% that every other game has put on bottom-tier fodder. Stanley Parable isn't on the level of an Obra Dinn, but it's a far cry from the ones who have looked decent.

transience's prediction: Fallout: New Vegas with 82.44%

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Leonharts Analysis

I feel like we already kinda saw this match! Its a well-liked Fallout game against an obscure indie game. Im not sure what new insight I can provide other than that! Is New Vegas more popular than Fallout 4? Is The Stanley Parable more popular than VVVVVV? Who knows! We saw New Vegas do pretty well in 2015, and weve already seen that Fallout 76 backlash isnt hurting the other games in the series that much, at least not in a situation like this. I imagine the final result wont be too different from what we saw before.

Leonharts Vote: Fallout: New Vegas

Leonharts Prediction: Fallout: New Vegas with 71.72%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Fallout 4 looked preeeeeetty good against VVVVVV. Given we have a game arguably more popular in New Vegas, against a game arguably less popular than V in The Stanley Parable, I think we see a similar result today. Im not actually completely convinced that New Vegas is stronger than 4, but they should be relatively close indirectly. Stanley is almost assuredly weaker than V (based on zero factual evidence), so its possible we might even see New Vegas put up a bigger result than 4 did.

Kleenexs Prediction: Fallout: New Vegas with 73%

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Guests Analysis MetalmindStats

BlowoutFAQs would already be enough to ensure a convincing win for New Vegas here, but on top of that, I think this is a nightmare match for The Stanley Parable. Both games are praised most of all for their writing, both are heavy on player choice within their narratives, and both are PC-centric, with New Vegas fans considering it the true successor to the early PC-exclusive Fallouts. However, between possible antivotes and The Stanley Parable likely having more strength than the Obra Dinns of this field, I dont expect New Vegas to quite contend for the biggest blowout of the contest.

Prediction: Fallout: New Vegas wins with 80.35%

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Crew Consensus: Man theres so much fodder here...

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I'm glad we all had the same idea about how much effort was necessary here...!

Also, I'd still take Assassin's Creed Odyssey over Mortal Kombat 11, if only because Odyssey is actually well-liked. That being said, I also think Witcher 3 is SFFing Odyssey here.

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New Vegas should be largely exempt from Fallout 76 backlash if only because it wasn't actually developed by Bethesda.

Maybe Fallout 76 backlash is not a thing because most of those people were already not fans of Bethesda to begin with. Fallout 76 being so bad just gave Bethesda's detractors more ammo rather than turning people against the company, if that makes any sense.

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I was a fan of Bethesda and now I am not because of F76.

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Lol

BT screwed me in the ORACLEAAAAAAHHH. Oh well I still love the guy

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Im really feeling the grind of these bad matchups. round 2 needs to come soon.

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transcience posted...

Im really feeling the grind of these bad matchups. round 2 needs to come soon.

Only 4 matches a day is what makes this feel like a slog

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transcience posted...

Im really feeling the grind of these bad matchups. round 2 needs to come soon.

this division in particular was rough

next division actually has some decent stuff to look into
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yeah, dealing with stanley parable and obra dinn and talos principle is just a little exhausting

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pretty sure I said this might be one of the weakest games in the bracket like 5 times in my write ups this weekend

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A ton of top scoring Gurus have Nioh today. That's a pretty exciting matchup to me. I personally don't think Nioh has a shot, but a big section of the board does.

...Or they just had no faith in indie games when predicting.

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junk_funk posted...

A ton of top scoring Gurus have Nioh today. That's a pretty exciting matchup to me. I personally don't think Nioh has a shot, but a big section of the board does.

...Or they just had no faith in indie games when predicting.

I think people are underrating Nioh, and don't forget that the sequel just came out.

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Oh crap I have a write up to do! On it...

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Round 1 Dark Souls III vs. Dishonored

Moltars Analysis

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4 boy if this match is another 85-15 beatdown

The original Dishonored is more popular on GameFAQs than the sequel, but it still cant compare in strength to Dark Souls III. It wont be as strong as the original, but name power alone can carry Dark Souls here, as Dishonored is just forgotten on this site.

Moltars Bracket: Dark Souls III

Moltars Prediction: Dark Souls III 68%

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transiences Analysis

Blech. Dark Souls 3 didn't resonate anything like the original did, but it's more than good enough to beat a western game like Dishonored, one that really only got played by people that are predisposed to play those kinds of games. Dishonored is well liked, but I don't feel like it found a big enough fanbase to really stick, certainly not on this website.

Dark Souls 3 is a little more interesting than that, if only because it comes from a franchise we sorta care about here. People that don't really care about either will probably side with the franchise that people can't shut up about. I can't tell if Dark Souls wins a comfortable 60/40 match or goes crazy here because Dishonored just sucks a la some of these bottom tier indie games. I'll probably go somewhere in the middle.

transience's prediction: Dark Souls 3 with 69.53%

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Leonharts Analysis

I dont think too much of Dark Souls IIIs contest strength. I think itll be a far cry from the original. It got stomped in 2016 Game of the Year by Final Fantasy XV, Overwatch, and Uncharted 4, which should tell you all you need to know. That being said, I think even less of Dishonored! The game has done poorly in every poll its been in, and the main character got crushed by Red in 2013. Dark Souls III probably wins easily, but I dont think it really means anything for its future prospects.

Leonharts Vote: Dark Souls III

Leonharts Prediction: Dark Souls III with 62.40%
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Kleenexs Analysis

I cant imagine any world where Dishonored is more than fodder in this contest. Bloodborne and Sekiro both looked good in their first round matches, and while Im still a little skeptical of Souls games that arent the original, Dark Souls III shouldnt have any issue putting away its competition today. DS3 at least managed to hang with some good competition in its game of the year polls. Dishonored lost to a shitty Assassins Creed game, and the sequel might as well not exist.

Kleenexs Prediction: Dark Souls III with 75.50%

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Guests Analysis spooky96

Okay, okay please forgive me for my idiotic Mincecraft/Dota 2 match, I don't know what the hell I was thinking, I even had Minecraft in my bracket, and totally forgot that we don't give a shit about MOBAs either. Anyway, both of these games are pretty damn weak. I know GotY results aren't particularly reliable, but DS3 finished 3rd, right after FF15 and Uncharted 4 (while not a great result) is a lot more impressive than Dishonored's result back in 2012, finishing next to Assassin Creed III. And today's result is probably more attributable to AC's weakness than Witcher 3's strength.

There isn't really much else to say, I didn't even know Dishonored's existence before this bracket, and while Dark Souls III has received a good amount of criticism from its fans, Dishonored isn't the kind of game that's taking advantage of that.

Dark Souls III with 66.66%

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Crew Consensus: By not getting blown out, Dishonored loses with honor.

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hey man, we all have really bad picks here and there. that's the nature of this thing!

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junk_funk posted...

A ton of top scoring Gurus have Nioh today. That's a pretty exciting matchup to me. I personally don't think Nioh has a shot, but a big section of the board does.

...Or they just had no faith in indie games when predicting.

I debated taking Nioh but I feel pretty good about BOI at this point.

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Thanks man, but I'll be embarrassed about that for a long time lol.

Anyway, The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth vs. Nioh should be an interesting match, seeing how well indie games have done, I don't feel so good about my Nioh pick.

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I haven't gotten a debatable match right yet!

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I don't see Nioh winning after Shovel Knight beat Dragon's Dogma so easily in a similar matchup. Maybe Isaac is a bit below SK, and maybe Nioh is a bit above DD. But that just means it'll be 55-45 instead of 65-35.

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LeonhartFour posted...

it's honestly not a bad upset

although Civilization has also never been any good here

Yeah, Civ has never done anything of note. I think the only time anything Civ has finished ahead of anything was in 2009 where the original game finished a mile back of second place but still got third in its opening fourpack. That's just from memory though so I could be wrong.

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Isaac is my personal game of the decade so it would be cool to see it win at least one match.

Between base/rebirth/afterbirth/antibirth I've put over 600 hours into that game.

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So if Witcher 3 could not drop another +0.5% I'll get the accuracy point. Seems likely enough.

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New Vegas has the higher seed than 4 so I can't imagine it's not stronger. We're talking the same fanbase nominating these things!

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