Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

(+) Yeah! (+)

I'd pick MGS5 easily

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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7468-best-of-2018-indies

That's honestly a great result by indie standards. Definitely a good bit stronger than Disco Elysium, anyway.

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I'd be tempted to pick KH3. MGSV is kinda regarded as the game that killed the series now.

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I'm shocked at the support for Yakuza. I feel like I have never heard anyone talk about that series, versus The Witness which was very much an indie darling when it came out

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Leonhart4 posted...

I'd be tempted to pick KH3. MGSV is kinda regarded as the game that killed the series now.

Versus KH3, the game that killed it's series?

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Versus KH3, the game that killed it's series?

LOL there will be plenty more Kingdom Hearts games I assure you

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I'm shocked at the support for Yakuza. I feel like I have never heard anyone talk about that series, versus The Witness which was very much an indie darling when it came out

You continue to have troubling grasping that what you heard of may be different from what most people heard of.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I'm shocked at the support for Yakuza. I feel like I have never heard anyone talk about that series, versus The Witness which was very much an indie darling when it came out

The PS4 board loves the Yakuza games and Yakuza 0 is arguably the best game in the series

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well I think we found the actual weakest game in the contest

getting quadrupled by Yakuza
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Some of these first round results are just mind bogglingly nonsensical. The Witness was HUGE when it came out

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Some of these first round results are just mind bogglingly nonsensical. The Witness was HUGE when it came out

not here
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hey it's our first legitimately close match of this contest! all the others have felt more or less over after 5 minutes.


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boy, yakuza is really taking it to witness. this makes sense - about half of the people who played the witness got frustrated by it and think it's dumb, as compared to the other indie games that people mostly really like. people love disco elysium, love inside, love celeste, love bastion. the witness? that's not as much of a consensus.

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Welp, I guess that's what I get for trusting Wikipedia and whatever other sources that Dead Cells was a Metroidvania, and that voters would vote on that basis. I'm still not convinced MGSV has real strength - it's just too obvious a case of backlash and antivotes in a contest where pretty much all those games have sagged badly - but GameFAQs doesn't care about roguelites.

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I feel Dead Cells is a "roguevania" which makes it less accessible than traditional Ori style Metroidvanias and we've already seen other roguelikes like Binding of Isaac and Slay the Spire bomb earlier.

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Wow, am I going to get another debated match right? Maybe my luck is changing!

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The Metroidvania aspects of Dead Cells are cool, but they're a very small part of the game. I wouldn't call it a Metroidvania unless I was trying to trick someone into playing it.
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I guess I would take MGSV over KH3 based on these results.

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Previous Results: Portal does fine, KH3 seems to have underperformed, but most people already had low expectations from it. Animal Crossing has no problems in its match and RDR2 stomped.

Crew Predictions: 43/48

Next Round Thoughts: 65% on Tomb Raider is much more impressive to me than 68% on Disco Elysium. RDR2 should have next round in the bag as well.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 43
Moltar: 42
transience: 42
Leonhart: 40
Guest: 40

Crew Accuracy Challenge: MechanicalWall gets the point for Portal, Moltar gets the point for KH, transience gets the point for AC, and Kleenex gets the point for RDR.

Moltar: 15
transience: 9
Guest: 8 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats, MechanicalWall)
Kleenex: 8
Leonhart: 5

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Round 1 Batman: Arkham City vs. Xenoblade Chronicles 2

Moltars Analysis

Man XC2s only other poll before this one is the 2017 GotY poll when it got killed by BotW and Odyssey, feels bad man.

It should do alright here, and if this was the original Xenoblade against Batman, this might actually be a close match. Its sequel is weaker though, and I think itll fall short of Batman. Weve already seen Arkham City in the past and know its legit. Its hard to say if Batman: AC is still relevant today, because the latter games kind of came and went.

On the other hand, Xenoblade is a series that has gone up in stock since 2015. Im guessing that Batman is probably a little weaker now, but XC2 wont be strong enough to challenge it.

Moltars Bracket: Batman: Arkham City

Moltars Prediction: Batman: Arkham City 60%

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transiences Analysis

This match is interesting. Xenoblade 2 is really hard to gauge because it was in a killer poll with both Breath of the Wild and Mario Odyssey, maybe the top 2 games of the decade. People seem to like XB2 a lot as it was the big RPG on the Switch early in its life. It might still be the biggest RPG on Switch? It's almost definitely more popular than Octopath, but it's obscured by those two big games. Also, it sucks.

Arkham City has done well for us in the past. It got 40% on MMX in 2015 and did pretty well in its GOTY poll way back when, easily beating both Portal 2 and Dark Souls. (Oh how times change.) Have the Arkham games aged well? I get the feeling that while people remember Asylum really fondly (it got 41% on eventual GOTD1 semifinalist Fallout 3), City's a little forgotten. They released two more Arkham games after City and neither were particularly well received. I also have this weird take that Spider-Man took the superhero mantle and kind of left Arkham behind.

It's not nearly enough to have Arkham City lose to Xenoblade 2, mind you. That game is pure Nintendo and a lot of people played it but it would take a shocking decline for City to fall here. I'm interested to see how this one goes because other third person action games of its type, like Assassin's Creed, haven't really impressed too much. Arkham City should be in another class from Xenoblade 2, but you never know!

transience's prediction: Batman: Arkham City with 63.41%

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Leonharts Analysis

We saw Arkham City in 2015, where it got 60/40d by Mega Man X in the first round. That performance looked kinda shaky until MMX went and put up 45% on Final Fantasy X in the next round, so in retrospect, it ended up looking fine overall. Arkham Asylum went on a pretty deep run in the original Game of the Decade in a fairly average division, and Arkham City is set up to win a couple matches here as well. Xenoblade 2 is probably one of the stronger low seeds in the contest, but its still going to be a far cry from the popularity of the original. I think it will hold up fairly well, but I cant see it winning.

Leonharts Vote: Batman: Arkham City

Leonharts Prediction: Batman: Arkham City with 63.98%

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Kleenexs Analysis

You know...Im not sure about this one. We saw Arkham City in 2015 and it did...okay against Mega Man X...I guess? Its still hard for me to really consider any of the Batman games all that strong, it just doesnt feel like a GameFAQs thing, you know? XB2 is also sort of impossible to figure out. The only polls its ever been in had it buried behind Breath of the Wild and Odyssey. Xenoblade 1 did fairly well in its first round match, but XB2 is not even close to as highly regarded as that one it. Still, this feels like the kind of match I could see XB2 having a shot in. Im not bold enough to take it, but at least if Im wrong I can be like hey I at least considered it and save face.

Kleenexs Prediction: Batman: Arkham City with 56.25%

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Guests Analysis MechanicalWall

I've heard whispers of an upset in this match, and while I don't think it's impossible, I'm certainly not taking it here.

I think it mostly boils down to Flowchart logic of 'well XB2 is a Nintendo JRPG so it can take a Western game', and Xenoblade 1 definitely put in some work in its match, but that's stripping a LOT of context. XB2 ended up selling pretty well, but it didn't make the most of its pedigree. I like the game a lot, but even to this day people talk about it as that booby waifuized version of a classic that runs at PS1 resolution in handheld mode. It's simultaneously fanservice-y, but not actually very accessible with its million billion menus and micromanaging; I would think that if you were going for sex appeal with the weeb crowd, you'd dumb down the gameplay a tad to not scare off the people just there to gawk at Pyra and Mythra. I can see the logic of Xenoblade: Definitive Edition's announcement boosting the series brand a bit, but I also think a lot of people are gonna be like, 'Well now that we have the original on Switch we don't have to bother with the weird sequel'. I dunno that's kind of a stretch but I've seen people express that sentiment. Oh and despite being a brand new Nintendo game with a fresh new cast, no Smash boost. That sucks.

On the other side is the gosh dang Batman. Through direct extrapolation with its Megaman X match, Batman would get 35% on FFX; avoiding a doubling from FFX ain't bad at all in this contest, where even the top half of the bracket would get murdered by the '90s and PS2 era. 2015 x-stats actually have Batman beating XC1 but uh, yah lol x-stats, especially 2015 ones. Anyway, the Arkham games have their fingerprints on a LOT of high-profile games throughout this gen, as for a while every game and their mother were copy pasting that blend of stealth and combat (especially the combat) before they realized they could rip off Dark Souls instead. Mind, some games STILL rip off Arkham almost wholesale, most notably Spiderman 2018. It certainly has a better claim to the 'Game of the Decade' title than Xenoblade 2 does, without mentioning that on the whole it's just a more respected title.

Like I said, there's room for a very silly upset, but Batman losing as the 3 seed here is just too embarrassing for me to entertain. It SHOULD have the sauce to get to Round 3 before respectfully bowing out to The Last of Us. Similar to the Portal 2 v Tomb Raider match, Xenoblade 2 should have enough strength and brand clout to not

I'm lagging behind in accuracy

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I whiffed bad.

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looks like dbfz isnt gonna make it. it was closer than I expected though! I stuck with my bracket but I didnt have a lot of confidence with how bad fighters have done. maybe dbfz is our strongest one in this contest besides Smash.

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

On the other hand, it seems Metroidvanias are the killer genre for indies here.

So Dead Cells has both the best and the worst genre in the indie hierarchy.

All right, in retrospect, the worst genre in the indie hierarchy is clearly quiet puzzle-based games.

INSIDE, Obra Dinn and The Witness are competing for weakest game in the bracket while Baba is You and The Talos Principle didn't look so hot either.

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Metroidvania
Platformer
RPG
Roguelike
Puzzle

What are the other genres for indies in this bracket?

Puzzle games are pretty low on the hierarchy here in general. Puzzle-based visual novels tend to do very poorly here, too!

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depends on how you define indie! it's such a misused term

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Round 1 BioShock Infinite vs. Terraria

Moltars Analysis

Well, Terraria used to be kind of a thing, and stayed relevant longer than Bioshock Infinite did. That game was kind of panned and forgotten about and ended the series.



Nah I cant do it, this aint the place to look for an indie game upset. Terrarias ceiling is like Minecraft and I wouldnt even take that here...but that would probably be pretty close now that I think about it. Bioshocks not worth 45% on New Vegas anymore, but it would have to take a drastic fall to lose this match, and we havent seen that happen at all this contest.

Moltars Bracket: BioShock Infinite

Moltars Prediction: BioShock Infinite 66%

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transiences Analysis

Bioshock Infinite. Remember that game? Remember when its e3 presentation was a huge deal? Remember how anticipated it was? I know we talk a lot about games that came and went, but wow. Infinite had such a cool premise with Elizabeth and Booker and the songbird, and the execution was good enough, but it just never resonated in the same way that the original Bioshock did. OG Bioshock completely screwed us up for years between Big Daddy and getting 48% on MGS3. Infinite got 45% on New Vegas, which isn't bad... until you realize that no one's really talked about or thought about Infinite in the last 5 years.

Its opponent is Terraria, a well-liked 2d Minecraft-like with the PC audience. Leonhart probably will say the same thing because that's what it'll say in its wikipedia page. Terraria has an audience but it's not really on this website. It's sold probably millions of copies and has interesting multiplayer servers and all that but yeah we're not interested in that stuff. It actually did okay in its GOTY poll, coming a clear second behind Bastion for indies, so it's probably not awful. It needs Infinite to reeeally bomb to win this one though. Bastion wouldn't get 45% on New Vegas, let alone Terraria.

transience's prediction: Bioshock Infinite with 64.68%

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Leonharts Analysis

Ive seen people recently pointing ahead to this match as the next possible upset, and I can see the argument. BioShock Infinite was in the 2015 Games Contest and did fairly well in a close first round loss to New Vegas, but its reputation seems to have faded in the last five years. Terraria is a 2-D sandbox game thats on every modern platform imaginable and sold 30 million copies, primarily on PC and mobile. I think Ill stick with Infinite here just because what weve seen from it before is stronger than what Terraria could hope to be, and Ill just bank on it not dropping nearly as much as some people think.

Leonharts Vote: BioShock Infinite

Leonharts Prediction: BioShock Infinite with 59.17%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Bioshock really would have no business losing this one. We saw Infinite do shockingly well against New Vegas in 2015, despite people seemingly having a lot of reservations about the game. Terraria has been in literally one GameFAQs poll, and it actually kinda looks sneaky strong to me. For an indie game, anyway. This match is sort of giving me Dragon Age/Ori vibes (how many times will I say that this contest? Stay tuned to find out!), and Bioshock is absolutely the kind of game that could get taken advantage of in a situation like this. The problem is, I dont know how big Terraria actually is anymore. I know it was at one point, but in 2020 I really have no idea. So yeah, blah blah, picking the higher seed, blah blah, maybe upset. You know the drill.

Kleenexs Prediction: Bioshock Infinite with 55%

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Guests Analysis SuperNiceDog

I have a nervous feeling about this match up. A theme of this contest seems to be "indie games can win", so let's take Terraria seriously.

It did finish in a respectable 2nd place in the only poll it's been in, all the way back in Jan 2012 about the best DLC game of 2011:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4591-best-of-2011-best-download-only-game

2nd to Bastion, a game which actually won a match this contest. Would I take Bastion to beat Bioshock: Infinite? No, but I think it would do respectable, probably getting around 40%.

So how would Terraria do against Bioshock: Infinite? Do people still remember Terraria?

Bioshock: Infinite is a more recent game, finishing 4th in a Game of the Year poll from Jan 2014 about the games from 2013:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5382-best-of-2013-game-of-the-year

That should help it a little bit, being more recent. The original Bioshock was actually very strong back in the 2015 Games Contest, and a little of that magic should transfer over to the sequel, which was not as well loved but still should get enough power by association.

Bioshock: Infinite should push it to near 60%.

Bioshock: Infinite wins with 59.2%

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Crew Consensus: Terraria was slain by the Bioshock of Infinite

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BioShock benefited from THREE rallies against MGS3. It's probably indirectly worth ~38% on MGS3.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

BioShock benefited from THREE rallies against MGS3. It's probably indirectly worth ~38% on MGS3.

Yeah, I doubt those rallies were worth an extra 10%

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I guess I just said that to conveniently set BioShock up as being slightly weaker than ME2.

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Leonhart probably will say the same thing because that's what it'll say in its wikipedia page.

LOL

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I mean he wasn't wrong! I needed to know something about a match that has upset potential, no matter how slight.

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Round 1 Diablo III vs. Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Moltars Analysis

The only question here is if Diablo III can do better than Mass Effect 2s 79% on Virtues Last Reward back in 2015.

I dont think so. Diablo III wasnt all that loved back when it came out, and a lot of Diablo fans turned against it. Supposedly its much better now, but who knows how many people gave it a chance later on.

Diablo is not hated enough to drop this match and VLR aint gonna be any stronger now than it was in 2015.

Moltars Bracket: Diablo III

Moltars Prediction: Diablo III 72%

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transiences Analysis

This eightpack is kind of maddening because there are 4-5 games that would have been good fits to make a run against the rest of the bracket. Diablo 3 is one of those. D3's polls are very hard to gauge because that game has been released and rereleased on every platform around over the last 5-6 years. When D3 first came out, it was a mess with things like the real money auction house and bad balance. But over time, just like all Blizzard games, it's really come into its own. The big boy console ports are really well regarded and it even came out on Switch a couple years ago. No one's voting for it for GOTY because it's been in seemingly every GOTY poll since 2012, but they were widely played and respected.

I don't think Diablo 3 is anywhere near Diablo 2 just because Diablo 2 is secretly one of the seminal games on this website. I don't have the numbers handy but I want to say that it lived in our top 100 for something like 4000 days. D3 doesn't have to be D2 to do some damage in this weak bracket though. I think enough fans respect it at this point that it's legit enough to possibly give Last of Us a match.

Its opponent is from the Zero Escape series, a series that is surprisingly popular given how niche and weird it is. I see the internet talk about Zero Escape a lot more than something like Ghost Trick which is probably its closest comparison in this bracket. VLR isn't strong by any means, but it's probably not bottom tier garbage. Its fans will back it. It's probably halfway between Ace Attorney and Ghost Trick? Something like that.

transience's prediction: Diablo 3 with 75.11%

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Leonharts Analysis

Man, if you had gone back to 2012 and said that, not only would Diablo III make the second Game of the Decade contest but it would also have a winnable match, Im not sure anyone would have believed you! This game was reviled when it first came out, but Blizzard kept improving the game over the years until the final product became something people actually enjoyed. Im sure that, like Street Fighter V (which is currently being doubled by Animal Crossing as I write this), a lot of people gave up on it before it got good, it would take a ton of anti-voting for it to lose this one. We saw both 999 and Virtues Last Reward in 2015, and they ranked near the bottom of the X-Stats. This site by and large doesnt care about point and click visual novel puzzle games that arent Phoenix Wright, and Zero Escape is no exception. Ill be curious to see just how high Diablo III can go here.

Leonharts Vote: Virtues Last Reward

Leonharts Prediction: Diablo III with 68.14%

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Kleenexs Analysis

I almost want to say the same thing I did about the first two matches today for this one, but unfortunately, I think VLR is probably too far below the line to actually make anything happen. Starcraft looked like junk, and Blizzard is not exactly riding high right now, but people do actually like Diablo III. They certainly didnt when the game first came out, but D3 has had one of the best turnarounds this side of FFXIV. Im not sure thatll translate to contest strength in any significant capacity, but it should be enough to handle a game that got quadrupled by Mass Effect 2 back when it was halfway relevant.

Kleenexs Prediction: Diablo III with 65.75%

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Guests Analysis TsunamiXXVIII

I have VLR in my bracket, but after seeing just how poorly the other VNs in this contest have done, Im resigned to the fact that Im not getting that point in Guru. It was always going to be an upset pick, anyway. But I figure that its probably going to outperform expectations, because in the wake of Danganronpa 2s hammering at the hands of RE2make, I overwhelmingly saw people saying that the Danganronpa series was still probably the second-strongest VN series, behind Ace Attorney. I was never entirely on board with that, because Zero Escapes been around longer and has had more of an impact. We only even got Zero Time Dilemma because the fans overwhelmingly campaigned for it. So on what basis is Danganronpa supposed to be stronger? The fact that it eventually got ported to the PS4 proper many years after debuting worldwide as Vita exclusiveswhich were themselves ports of the Japan-exclusive PSP games? Come on, this is PSP/PSV vs. DS/3DS. You know who wins that battle. The X-Stats support it, too; setting RE2make = RE2, VLR is expected to get 57% on DR2. So Im expecting that VLR will exceed expectations.

The only problem is, expectations are surprisingly good! Okay, yeah, there are some people in the Oracle topic picking Diablo III to put up a similar blowout to what RE2 did to DR2, but the majority of them are in the 60s, which means to be properly sure of an undercut, Id have to dip down into the 50s. There are enough big numbers, though, on the early pages that I feel like maybe Im just biased by a small sample sizebut I still feel like I need to lower my number beyond what it originally was! Was Diablo III really that hated?

I want the outright upset so badbut I refuse to be one of those Guest Pickers who signs up to take the crazy upset, and besides we need a proper Crew Curse to make this happen, so I guess Ill just lower my Oracle a few points and then undercut that by a bunch for the Crew pick to be sure of having the low pick. Not that itll matter because no one would get the point if it actually pulls it off!

Diablo III with 57% (but praying for VLR to win outright)
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Crew Consensus: Bad Ending for VLR.

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whoa, you guys are low on Diablo (much like you were on MGS and who's laughing now!)

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Pretty sure Diablo III made a much worse first impression than MGSV.

Also Blizzard is absolutely reviled now. At least Konami's controversies are not as high-profile by comparison.

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transience posted...

whoa, you guys are low on Diablo (much like you were on MGS and who's laughing now!)

yeah I dunno

I'll have a better feel for predictions starting in round 2 once we actually have data that's worth a crap
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MIA Guest Alert - @Kotetsu534

I don't have a write-up for TLOU/Crusader Kings yet. If I don't get one soon, it's not getting posted with the rest of the Crew write-ups.

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Round 1 The Last of Us vs. Crusader Kings II

Moltars Analysis

Blowout of the contest? Probably not, but it will be up there. Seems similar to the GoW match so Ill go with a similar percentage.

Moltars Bracket: The Last of Us

Moltars Prediction: The Last of Us 84%

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transiences Analysis

Crusader Kings 2. Oh man. Look, that game has its supporters, and its supporters will die for it. But it's a Paradox game, and Paradox games are played by Paradox fans and not much else, especially on this website. CK2 is a political maneuvering game that entrances a certain kind of person (to the tune of thousands of hours of playtime -- CK2 heads are among the most dedicated fanbase in existence), but everyone else either glazes over or, more likely, just never hears about it at all. I know other people say this a lot, but I try to only use it when it's truly appropriate: this is one of the weakest games we'll ever see in a contest.

The Last of Us is a huge game with a huge sequel coming. It's one of those games like Bloodborne that gets legit GOTD hype from everywhere. What I'm trying to say here is that a GOTD type of game going up against a complete nothing like CK2 is going to make Last of Us look *really* good. We're going to look at this result and compare it to Dark Souls's on Hotline Miami and call it the clear favourite. It's not exactly fair, because CK2 is such a unique thing whereas Hotline Miami can be enjoyed by anyone. But it'll happen.

transience's prediction: The Last of Us with 86.66%

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Leonharts Analysis

Were basically going to be comparing every match The Last of Us has with Dark Souls each round until they inevitably meet in the division finals. TLOU did pretty well in 2015, doubling up Halo 3 and then putting up a respectable 40% on Kingdom Hearts II. I have no clue what Crusader Kings II even is, but I imagine its going to be the 25th game I call one of the weakest games in the contest! This time, I might even be right! This should be ugly.

Leonharts Vote: The Last of Us

Leonharts Prediction: The Last of Us with 82.11%
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Kleenexs Analysis

The Last of Us looked shockingly anemic back in 2015. Its not going to lose here, but much like Uncharted, it and all its other contest entries are way weaker than their apparent popularity would have you believe. Crusader Kings is like...one of the freeset freebies in the bracket. TLOU is probably going to look really good at the end of this match (cue massive underperformance), but I wouldnt put too much stock in that given its opponent.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Last of Us with 78.75%

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Guests Analysis Kotetsu534

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Crew Consensus: You know, Round 2, we really are The Last of Us.

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Master Moltar posted...

The Last of Us looked shockingly anemic back in 2015

I thought 40% on KH2 was pretty good!
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also calling all guests
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Emergency Guest Analysis (if Kotetsu534 doesn't show up):

The Last of Us is a legit GotD contender and did fairly well in 2015, putting up 40% on KH2. Meanwhile CK2 is a Paradox game that's even more niche than Civ 5, which is already fodder tier. The only thing that matter here is how high The Last of Us goes and it needs to score well into the 80s to prove it can hang with Dark Souls in the division finals.

TLoU - 83.38%

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come on crusader kings!!!

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Oh of course! There's so many matches in this contest I keep forgetting!

TLoU with 82% of the vote (I promise I scrolled straight past you guys' scores so I'm not cheating!)

Crusader Kings II is one of those games that on a different part of the internet is revered. Here, it's been in one poll where it got 2%, quintupled by FTL and absolute destroyed by the mighty XCOM. Yeah. The Last of Us was around in 2015 and did reasonably well - it doubled Halo 3 and got 60/40'd by KHII, which was disappointing at the time but KH2 did surprisingly well against Melee. Since then TLoU's sequel has received continued hype at big conferences and it just gets a lot of respect generally. It should crush CKII.

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if any match has potential to be the next zelda/adventure, its last of us/ck2

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Good work VLR

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everyones probably laughing at VLRs opening (this will probably go like F4/V) but wtf Last of Us

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Yeah, if TLOU can't even break 80% here after what Dark Souls just did, that doesn't speak well for its future prospects.

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Xenoblade 2 could have been a real spoiler in the right spot. good thing it was here!

I bet people start to question the fire emblem match

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transcience posted...

Xenoblade 2 could have been a real spoiler in the right spot. good thing it was here!

I bet people start to question the fire emblem match

Oh, there are already people calling Xenoblade a lock to win division 4 in the Stats Topic!

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