Board 8 > ~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 13 feat. Dark Souls (-62), MGSV (-48)

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MZero11
04/07/20 6:50:38 AM
#1:


You can sign-up now or anytime during the contest. Regardless, you will be given $1000 to bet on matches as you see fit. If at any time you fall below $1000, you can bet up to $1000 but beware you can enter the negatives. The user with the most money at the end will be crowned the winner and receive a game of their choice (within reason) courtesy of your host (unless I win, then the prize will go to the runner-up).

Basically this works like sports betting with spreads, if you're familiar with that. Here's an example line:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds

If you bet on BotW, it would have to beat TOW by 40%, meaning it would have to get at least 70% of the vote (70-30 = 40). If you bet on TOW (+40) it needs to score at least 30.01% of the vote (69.99 - 30.01 = 39.98) to keep the difference in percentage, or spread, within 40 points.

So someone with $1000 bets $500 on BotW

BotW 73.12%
TOW 26.88%

BotW covers! The bet is doubled and returned for a profit of $500 and the player is now at $1500

ALTERNATE UNIVERSE

BotW 63.1%
TOW 36.9%

TOW covers! All BotW bets are lost and said player is now at $500. Even though BotW won, it didn't win by enough.

Back for this contest is 4-match days, meaning parlays are back too! For those unfamiliar, you can earn more by combining your bets, but if one is wrong you lose the whole thing. So let's say

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (-40) vs The Outer Worlds
Halo: Reach (-10) vs Life Is Strange

If you bet $100 on each of these individually and win, you earn a $100 profit on each, for a total of $200. However, if you parlay and both win you will get x3, meaning you win a $300 profit. However, if either match is wrong you lose the entire bet. 3 and 4 match parlays will give higher payouts, but you risk losing it all if any match in the parlay is wrong.

2-Match Parlay: 3 to 1 ($100 bet = $300 profit)
3-Match Parlay: 7 to 1 ($100 bet = $700 profit)
4-Match Parlay: 15 to 1 ($100 bet = $1500 profit)

You can choose any combination of parlays and single bets you want.

Today's Matches
Dark Souls (-62) vs. Hotline Miami (Dark Souls with 81%)
Rocket League (-15) vs. Dragon Ball FighterZ (Rocket League with 57.5%)
Yakuza 0 (-20) vs. The Witness (Yakuza 0 with 60%)
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (-48) vs. Dead Cells (MGSV with 74%)

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MZero, to the extreme
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Paratroopa1
04/07/20 7:17:43 AM
#2:


MAX on Yakuza 0
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Agent M
04/07/20 7:25:16 AM
#3:


$1500 parlay on Dark Souls / Dragon Ball / Yakuza 0 / Metal Gear Solid V
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ZeldaTPLink
04/07/20 7:29:34 AM
#4:


100k on Yakuza
100k on DBZ and Dark Souls
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ZeldaTPLink
04/07/20 7:30:31 AM
#5:


Forgot to write parlay

100k on Yakuza
100k parlay on DBZ and Dark Souls
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_SecretSquirrel
04/07/20 7:58:11 AM
#6:


Half on Yakuza

Half parlay on Dark Souls and Dead Cells

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squexa
04/07/20 8:10:06 AM
#7:


MAX on Dark Souls

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Kotetsu534
04/07/20 9:00:38 AM
#8:


HALF parlay on Dark Souls, Rocket League, Yakuza 0 and MGSV

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CaIlMeSpike
04/07/20 9:04:30 AM
#9:


1000 on Yakuza

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Kotetsu534
04/07/20 9:10:33 AM
#10:


Change:

Half parlay on Dark Souls, Rocket League, Yakuza 0 and Dead Cells

Let's see...

Dark Souls doubled Civ V back in 2015, and Dark Souls III blew out Dishonored. I'd obviously take both of those games to blast Hotline Miami so it should be joining the 80%+ club here. Maybe it misses fractionally.

Rocket League is actually a game with some respect and a massive playrate. It went even with Shovel Knight in 2015 and that's probably a reasonable read on its strength. DBZF is just living on franchise value, which isn't likely to be enough (it lost to Ni No Kuni 2... I didn't even know there was a Ni No Kuni 2).

Yakuza 0 is probably really weak, but The Witness managed to lose to INSIDE. Weakest match in the bracket?

There's no reason why Dead Cells shouldn't get tripled by MGSV based on their polling histories, but I have a weird feeling respect for MGS has just fallen off what with the mess Konami have been since its release and Kojima's weird Death Stranding project probably hasn't helped either. I see a weird underperformance that probably drops it into the high 60s/low 70s.


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Yuri_LowelI
04/07/20 9:39:29 AM
#11:


Max on hotline and dead cells

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pirate109
04/07/20 9:39:41 AM
#12:


Have to back DS since it's my favourite game of all time (and it should be fine here anyway...)

50% Parlay on Dark Souls and Rocket League

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Kotetsu534
04/07/20 12:23:22 PM
#13:


Half parlay on Hotline Miami, Rocket League, Yakuza 0 and Dead Cells

On reflection, the only games to break 80% so far are:

LoZ: BOTW (85% on The Outer Worlds)
SMG2 (87% on Obra Dinn)
God of War (85% on The Talos Principle)
Witcher 3 (84% on Assassin's Creed Odyssey)
SMO (83% on MK11)
SSBU (83% on Tekken 7)
RDR2 - vs. Dying Light (fractionally over 81% v Dying Light, still running)
Horizon (81% on Fortnite)
Bloodborne (80.5% on Black Ops)

So so far you've either needed to be Big N, you were the Star of the Round (Witcher 3) and probably benefitted from SFF, or you scrape over 80% against something that gets mass antivoted (Horizon/Bloodborne), or you are against something truly unknown and you're very strong (God of War, maybe RDR2). 81% is really bloody hard to hit, even with all the blowouts we've had.

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SeabassDebeste
04/07/20 12:46:42 PM
#14:


20K on dark souls
20K on dark souls/DBZF PARLAY
20K on dark souls/dead cells/yakuza PARLAY
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-hotdogturtle--
04/07/20 12:59:28 PM
#15:


Waiting to make sure that Animal Crossing stays above 65%...

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TsunamiXXVIII
04/07/20 1:14:24 PM
#16:


MAX on DBZ/Yakuza 0

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charmander6000
04/07/20 1:48:26 PM
#17:


25% on Dark Souls (-62)
25% on Dragon Ball FighterZ (+15)
25% on Yakuza 0 (-20)
25% on Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (-48)

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AxemRedRanger
04/07/20 3:11:26 PM
#18:


HALF parlay on Dragon Ball FighterZ and Yakuza 0.

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Master Moltar
04/07/20 5:35:31 PM
#19:


Half parlay on Yakuza 0 and Dead Cells

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Ngamer64
04/07/20 6:05:58 PM
#20:


10% on Dark Souls
0% on RL, too much emotion on the line
25% on Yakuza 0
35% on Dead Cells


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squexa
04/07/20 6:41:48 PM
#21:


CHANGE

30% on Dark Souls, Dead Cells parlay

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-hotdogturtle--
04/07/20 6:47:27 PM
#22:


$1,000,000 on Yakuza

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MetalmindStats
04/07/20 6:49:48 PM
#23:


60% on a parlay on Yakuza 0 and Dead Cells.
20% on a parlay on Dark Souls and Dragon Ball FighterZ.

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Keltiq
04/07/20 6:59:13 PM
#24:


$840,000 parlay on Dragon Ball, Yakuza

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plasmabeam
04/07/20 7:00:10 PM
#25:


$1700 on Yakuza 0

$2300 parlay on Dark Souls, Yakuza 0, Dead Cells

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tennisboy213
04/07/20 7:13:21 PM
#26:


MAX parlay on Dark Souls & Dead Cells
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tennisboy213
04/07/20 7:14:04 PM
#27:


add Yakuza to that parlay
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Agent M
04/07/20 7:15:50 PM
#28:


I'm gonna change my bet...

$1000 parlay on Dark Souls / DBZ / Yakuza 0 / Dead Cells

$1500 parlay on Dark Souls / Yakuza 0

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hylianknight3
04/07/20 7:27:05 PM
#29:


95% parlay on Yakuza 0 and Dead Cells
5% on Dragon Ball

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SuperNiceDog
04/07/20 7:27:28 PM
#30:


3000 on Dragon Ball FighterZ
1500 on Dead Cells

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GTM
04/07/20 7:32:01 PM
#31:


MAX on Yakuza, Dark Souls, Rocket League

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GTM - Boko United
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GTM
04/07/20 7:32:36 PM
#32:


CHANGE

MAX on Yakuza, Dead Cells, Rocket League

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GTM - Boko United
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GTM
04/07/20 7:33:04 PM
#33:


"oops" my brain went one way but I typed the other way

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MZero11
04/07/20 7:33:16 PM
#34:


$10000 on Yakuza
$10000 on Dark Souls/Rocket League parlay

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SwiftyDC
04/07/20 7:47:16 PM
#35:


$2M parlay on DBFighterZ/Yakuza/Dead Cells

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dilateDChemist
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-hotdogturtle--
04/07/20 7:47:45 PM
#36:


-hotdogturtle-- posted...
$1,000,000 on Yakuza
Change this to $1,030,000 on Yakuza.

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Kotetsu534
04/07/20 7:58:04 PM
#37:


Change

Half parlay on Dark Souls, Dragon Ball FighterZ, Yakuza 0 and Dead Cells

I'm getting cold feet on Rocket League... how many people here give a damn about it?

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Kotetsu534
04/07/20 8:00:04 PM
#38:


Also yes I intentionally switched from Hotline Miami.

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Kotetsu534
04/07/20 8:03:03 PM
#39:


Oh man I'm excited I might actually hit my 4-way!

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_SecretSquirrel
04/07/20 10:13:19 PM
#40:


OK Dark Souls, please just keep on rising. MGSV, not so much.

Still, this was a scary day, though I wish I had included Yakuza in my parlay bet instead of hedging separately.

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Kotetsu534
04/08/20 5:35:43 AM
#41:


MGSV looks like it's stalling out at 72%. I think Dark Souls/DBZ/Yakuza/MGSV are home and dry!

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SwiftyDC
04/08/20 9:22:15 AM
#42:


Back and forth we go.

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