Poll of the Day > what are the chances that russia is gonna nuke usa

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accord
10/07/22 2:18:52 PM
#1:


topic





topic
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Jkd91
10/07/22 2:19:33 PM
#2:


50%

They either will or wont.
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adjl
10/07/22 2:26:54 PM
#3:


Very low, but not quite 0. Putin's crazy and desperate, and while I don't think he's quite crazy and desperate enough to start nuking people, I can't completely rule out the possibility.

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DirtBasedSoap
10/07/22 2:29:33 PM
#4:


Jkd91 posted...
50%

They either will or wont.
every day there is a 50-50 chance that it will rain. Either it will or it wont rain.

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Lokarin
10/07/22 2:33:43 PM
#5:


ok, lets say russia gets 1 free nuke... what's the better strategy

a) nuke ukraine out of revenge
b) nuke self to stop ukraine
c) nuke america/china/whoever

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FrozenBananas
10/07/22 3:00:07 PM
#6:


Jkd91 posted...
50%

They either will or wont.


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hera
10/07/22 3:03:05 PM
#7:


0

at this point im willing to bet that their nukes don't even work or possibly exist

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Zareth
10/07/22 3:39:16 PM
#8:


hera posted...
0

at this point im willing to bet that their nukes don't even work or possibly exist


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Dikitain
10/07/22 3:41:01 PM
#9:


hera posted...
0

at this point im willing to bet that their nukes don't even work or possibly exist

Oh I am fairly confident they exist, I just don't think there is any chance of them making off the launch pad at this point.

North Korea probably has more advanced nuclear capabilities.

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Revelation34
10/07/22 3:46:22 PM
#10:


Anybody that thinks it isn't 0% is delusional.

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keyblader1985
10/07/22 4:21:53 PM
#11:


Even on the very small chance that he pulls the trigger, I wouldn't be too worried. Looking at their general performance our odds of us being nuked are not the same as the odds of them trying to nuke us.

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wpot
10/07/22 4:27:28 PM
#12:


adjl posted...
Very low, but not quite 0. Putin's crazy and desperate, and while I don't think he's quite crazy and desperate enough to start nuking people, I can't completely rule out the possibility.
The worry is not so much that he would decide to do it, it's that he raises tensions so much that someone overreacts to a situation. Orrr...if he becomes despondent enough would he nuke the US while committing suicide? Point being, agreed that it's near 0 but not 0.

As far as technical capabilities go...who knows. I'll agree it's far more likely that they are reliably able to strike their neighbors than the US. Note that Alaska neighbors Russia, however...

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hera
10/07/22 4:29:16 PM
#13:


tbh i could see him nuking russia just so no one else could have it

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adjl
10/07/22 4:30:27 PM
#14:


wpot posted...
Note that Alaska neighbors Russia, however...

But also that nuking Alaska would be little more than a petty, desperate attempt to lash out out of spite. That said, any use of nukes is going to be a petty, desperate attempt to lash out out of spite, so I can't rule it out.

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wpot
10/07/22 4:31:45 PM
#15:


adjl posted...
any use of nukes is going to be a petty, desperate attempt to lash out out of spite
Exactly. He knows he wouldn't win a nuke battle, but he could lash out memorably on the way out if that's something that appeals to him.

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Bartiscool
10/07/22 4:50:54 PM
#16:


If Russia is going to nuke ANYONE it's going to be Ukraine and only Ukraine. Even the chances of that happening are very near 0%. Tired of people thinking real life is like a movie where Putin is some evil villain that has the nuclear button in his bedroom.

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Entity13
10/07/22 4:55:42 PM
#17:


There is a close-to-50% chance they will try, and almost a 100% chance the equipment will either fail outright or be taken down by a squirrel. I estimate there is a 0.0001~% of a single warhead reaching as far as Alaska.

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FatalAccident
10/07/22 5:12:29 PM
#18:


Because even when Russia is at war with Ukraine the world still revolves around the usa?

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wpot
10/07/22 5:21:56 PM
#19:


FatalAccident posted...
Because even when Russia is at war with Ukraine the world still revolves around the usa?
Everything Putin does revolves around his perceived competition with NATO, which he perceives as led by the USA. In the case of this topic the US is Putin's nemesis because he has made it so. He views Ukraine as a plaything in that competition. Of course he's wrong and Ukraine alone - at least with Western help - appears to be more than he can handle. And the US doesn't want to compete with Russia: they want to ignore (and occasionally partner with) Russia.

Bartiscool posted...
Putin is some evil villain
He attacked a country unprovoked and is threatening nuclear war. As far as world leaders go, that's more or less the definition of 'evil villain'. The question is how mentally stable he is. Best guess is that he's fairly stable, although he has concentrated on theoretical grievances and has - at least until recently - lost touch with realities on the ground. But even mentally stable people can do 'crazy' things when desperate...

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Nichtcrawler-X
10/07/22 5:25:34 PM
#20:


Lokarin posted...
ok, lets say russia gets 1 free nuke... what's the better strategy

a) nuke ukraine out of revenge
b) nuke self to stop ukraine
c) nuke america/china/whoever

All is possible.

Unfortunately I do not have a historic/non-fiction comparison for this, but I am certain Putin is capable of something like the "Westerland Massacre" from LoGH.

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Bartiscool
10/07/22 5:31:41 PM
#21:


wpot posted...
He attacked a country unprovoked and is threatening nuclear war. As far as world leaders go, that's more or less the definition of 'evil villain'. The question is how mentally stable he is. Best guess is that he's fairly stable, although he has concentrated on theoretical grievances and has - at least until recently - lost touch with realities on the ground. But even mentally stable people can do 'crazy' things when desperate...

You know what I meant. He is a villain but not in a cartoon, James Bond sense. Despite how corrupt and destabilized Russia is, there is still a chain of command when it comes to using nuclear weapons. Just because crazy Putin orders a nuclear strike doesn't mean it will happen. There are still people in Russia that know what nuclear war will lead to and they want to live to see another day.

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SKARDAVNELNATE
10/07/22 5:34:10 PM
#22:


I for one one welcome the fiery demise of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrZFscfJxXc

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wpot
10/07/22 5:41:14 PM
#23:


Bartiscool posted...
You know what I meant. He is a villain but not in a cartoon, James Bond sense. Despite how corrupt and destabilized Russia is, there is still a chain of command when it comes to using nuclear weapons. Just because crazy Putin orders a nuclear strike doesn't mean it will happen. There are still people in Russia that know what nuclear war will lead to and they want to live to see another day.
Right, that factors into the low chance. But there are also people who would love to nuke the US...and from all indications Putin remains firmly in command. My point was the odds are very low, but not 0%. Even a 1% chance is unacceptably high.

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InfernalFive
10/07/22 6:17:44 PM
#24:


adjl posted...
Very low, but not quite 0. Putin's crazy and desperate, and while I don't think he's quite crazy and desperate enough to start nuking people, I can't completely rule out the possibility.
This. He knows if he does his country is absolutely fucked.

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Entity13
10/07/22 6:43:43 PM
#25:


I like that people are optimistic about Putin's sanity or faculties at this point.

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Muscle_Buster
10/07/22 7:45:02 PM
#26:


With Biden in power, hopefully soon.

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ReturnOfFa
10/07/22 7:46:35 PM
#27:


0.

Why would they? It'd be shot down and retaliation would be immediate. They are more likely to nuke Ukraine, which would be far more likely to hit, but would still be incredibly stupid.

**edit, to be fair, people rationalize the very small chance quite well.

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papercup
10/07/22 8:20:20 PM
#28:


Not 0% but might as well be 0. It's not going to happen.

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Zareth
10/07/22 8:25:04 PM
#29:


Bartiscool posted...
Tired of people thinking real life is like a movie where Putin is some evil villain that has the nuclear button in his bedroom.
Yeah this. Even if Putin orders a nuke his cronies will probably either refuse it or kill him for ordering it. Nobody wants to be remembered as the guy who destroyed the world.

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Judgmenl
10/07/22 8:27:59 PM
#30:


lolno/10

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hera
10/07/22 8:50:03 PM
#31:


Zareth posted...

Yeah this. Even if Putin orders a nuke his cronies will probably either refuse it or kill him for ordering it. Nobody wants to be remembered as the guy who destroyed the world.

except for the guy who wants to destroy the world

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Zareth
10/07/22 8:55:24 PM
#32:


hera posted...


except for the guy who wants to destroy the world
Yeah but it takes a lot more than one guy who wants to destroy the world to actually destroy the world

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hera
10/07/22 8:56:47 PM
#33:


no its still very much possible

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Revelation34
10/08/22 12:19:16 AM
#34:


hera posted...
no its still very much possible


As possible as Trump claiming to being responsible for January 6th.

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GGuirao13
10/08/22 4:09:35 AM
#35:


It could go either way.

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