Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 399: Teardrops on My Qatar

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik7 posted...

They won't call it yet for the ratings.

I think we are one GIANT DUMP away from calling it

masterplum posted...

I think we are one GIANT DUMP away from calling it

No. People will turn the station off if they do. They'll wait until someone forced their hand.

Didn't Fox fire somebody in 2020 for calling Arizona early because viewership dipped?

Yeah nobody is going to admit Warnock has won on a major new station for a while.

Like, Walker just took the lead again, and even though the numbers are still terrible for what he needs based on what's left, and he's still underperforming, acting like it's neck and neck and this could be a comeback is what gets ratings.

And it flips back hard to Warnock again after another Dekalb and Fulton dump, with plenty left to dump.

Big dumps.

The Needle is back and has Warnock >95%

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600317857081872384?s=19

Hooray democracy

Parents watching Holiday Baking Championship to get away from the news, and Chef Herschel just got sent home, lol.

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1600318760677785600

Red wave!

LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1600318760677785600

Red wave!

That's pretty nuts.

"it's gonna look more like deep impact, the tsunami at the end but colored red. it's gonna be a brutal week for the democrats beginning on tuesday." - ben shapiro

Expected result, but definitely nice to see it officially punched in.

this is old but of course scott adams said kanye doesn't REALLY like hitler. rather, kanye said the most offensive thing he could think of to test if musk would ban him from twitter. adams also called kanye's appearance on alex jones "the highest level of performance art."

The news broke early this morning, but Britney Griner was freed from Russia in a prisoner swap. Great news that she's coming home.

Sucks that Russia dragged it out this long and that they are still refusing to release Whelan at this time.

Thorn posted...

Sucks that Russia dragged it out this long and that they are still refusing to release Whelan at this time.

And also that we freed a arms dealer in exchange.

Maniac64 posted...

And also that we freed a arms dealer in exchange.

We're the biggest arms dealer in the world, seems kinda pointless to get mad about releasing one guy.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/law-justice/pse-substations-among-five-attacked-in-pacific-northwest-in-november/

News of the attacks follows a shooting investigators say damaged substations in North Carolina on Saturday, leaving thousands without power. Energy experts have stressed the need to secure the power grid, warning that the nations vulnerable electricity infrastructure could be a target for domestic terrorists.

BPA spokesperson Douglas Johnson said a deliberate physical attack at a Clackamas, Ore., substation occurred over the Thanksgiving holiday. A fence was cut and equipment was damaged, Johnson wrote.

Surely just a coincidence.

Maniac64 posted...

And also that we freed a arms dealer in exchange.

I mean, yeah, that's not great. But this was a guy who was going to see the light of day eventually - he was about halfway through his sentence as it was. And being separated from his contacts for over a decade means he's unlikely to be effective even if he were to return to that.

Griner was obviously seized by Russia the week before the invasion of Ukraine in anticipation of being used a political hostage/pawn and yeah, it sucks that Russia got anything for that, the alternative was to let an American languish in a penal colony for 9 years for basically nothing - pretty sure even analysts of Russia's legal system said that even if you took the charges she faced at face value the penalty she received was pure bullshit.

I don't envy Biden for having to make the choice. There's no way that the US can make a "fair" exchange because we don't do shit like kidnap Russians on trumped up charges to use as bargaining chips (nor should we). He also has a duty to do what he can to rescue Americans abroad. On the other hand, this type of thing working out for the Russians incentivizes them to do it more; kind of a lose-lose situation. And I don't really know what we can do to stop the situation from repeating besides discouraging Americans from traveling to countries run by oppressive regimes as much as possible.

Yes, it's a really hard situation, and Biden has been handling these kinds of negotiations really well. I wouldn't want to be in his shoes on this kind of thing.

I think that Biden has not been signaling that he is a pushover like Obama did. That's really important.

Also, another authoritarian coup was foiled in Peru, this time from the left. Would-be dictators are having a bad year.

The House voted to lift the Covid vaccine mandate for the military.

Which likeconsidering the 50 other mandatory vaccines, seems like a pretty ridiculous capitulation to extremists.

Isn't that like a basic readiness issue?

Seems like it would be kinda suboptimal for covid to sweep through your troops and immobilize them for a week or two!

Covid is not at the level where that's a huge concern anymore. Also it's not like no one is going to be vaccinated - people can still be vaccinated if they want to.

Yeah, you would think

it's for sure suboptimal. at this point it's equivalent to removing the flu vaccine mandate

but if it can be used as leverage to cause republicans to compromise on something else useful i guess we can shoot ourselves in this particular foot

the republican party just gets more embarrassing every day

Surprising no one, Sinema announces she's leaving the Democratic party and becoming an independent.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1601170707375083520

I actually suspected she might try this closer to 2024 to hold onto that seat because she couldn't win a Dem primary anymore but if she runs third party she can basically hand the seat to the GOP if the Dems try to put forward a candidate so she's trying to force them to settle for her by evading the primary and daring them to probably lose the seat by challenging her anyway. Completely craven move.

Thorn posted...

Surprising no one, Sinema announces she's leaving the Democratic party and becoming an independent.

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1601170707375083520

I actually suspected she might try this closer to 2024 to force the AZ Dems to capitulate to her else doom them by running third party if they chose to forward with a primary, but I guess she's moving the schedule up since the Dems managed to hold onto a majority without needing her with Warnock's win.

Doesnt that impact committees

...It might, actually yeah. I'd have to look into it - which I can't right now, but I know under the 50-50 Senate committees were co-chaired instead of Dem control and they lacked subpoena power, which they would have had in a 51-49 majority.

Well actually I think it wouldnt

even if she didnt caucus with democrats it would be 50-49

I mean she isnt caucusing with republicans right? That would be political suicide

It depends. The current operation of the Senate as a 50-50 body is, AFAIK, the result of the power sharing agreement that was basically the first thing the Senate had to agree on when they were seated in 2021. It laid out how they would work and streamline a few things so Harris wouldn't have to live there 24/7 (though she still had to be there often)

I don't see why Sinema couldn't just join the GOP for that vote to maintain the status quo if she wanted to hamstring the Senate even if she then proceeded to nominally caucus with the Dems.

If she doesn't pull this shit then yeah it wouldn't affect things and it could be treated as a "normal" 51 seat majority. But who in their right mind actually trusts Sinema to do that lol?

Is there seriously no rule against senators changing alignment after an election?
Whats to stop someone else from going republican to tip the scales all by themselves?

htaeD posted...

Is there seriously no rule against senators changing alignment after an election?

Nope! We've had complete party changes from Dem -> GOP (or vice versa) in the past.

Whats to stop someone else from going republican to tip the scales all by themselves?

Nothing at all. If, hypothetically, Manchin decided to flip parties (and Sinema caucused with them) the GOP would have control of the Senate and McConnell would be the majority leader.

I mean, to reiterate, I think her play here is to position herself to hold onto that seat in 2024 because she knew she would have gotten annihilated in a primary and this way she can dodge that and dare the Dems to put up a candidate, split the vote, and lose the seat entirely - that is to say a completely craven and selfish move to hold onto personal political power above all else.

In some interview pieces that are coming out early it sounds like she expects to maintain her committee assignments which probably means she still caucuses with the Dems and so they will have an effective 51-49 majority still but the clips I've seen note she does not explicitly say that so technically speaking it's not impossible she caucuses with the GOP and made a deal with them on that. I doubt that but the way everything has been worded the possibility isn't zero yet.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2022/12/09/sen-krysten-sinema-leaves-democratic-party-to-become-an-independent/69710762007/

Local AZ outlet that Sinema "broke" this too stating she plans to caucus with the Dems still so committees, advancing judicial noms, etc. should still operate as though the Dems have a 51-49 majority.

This is definitely her tactic to maintain her seat in 2024 and avoid a primary.

Thorn posted...

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2022/12/09/sen-krysten-sinema-leaves-democratic-party-to-become-an-independent/69710762007/

Local AZ outlet that Sinema "broke" this too stating she plans to caucus with the Dems still so committees, advancing judicial noms, etc. should still operate as though the Dems have a 51-49 majority.

This is definitely her tactic to maintain her seat in 2024 and avoid a primary.

If she caucuses with democrats this is meaningless till 2024. Headache in 2024 but that election map is already horrendous so...

Doesn't she have like an 8% approval rating? Would she even split the vote by running as an independent?

TotallyNotMI posted...

Doesn't she have like an 8% approval rating? Would she even split the vote by running as an independent?

Probably enough to tank the Democrat. If Keri Lake can lose by only a couple percentage I don't imagine it would take much. There is no way she siphons Republican votes is there?

I mean, Mark Kelly had a wider margin of victory there and it'd probably make more sense to use that race as a comparison but yeah there's not much room for error. Think I still run a Dem if I'm the state party though. Like, this is straight bullshit on Sinema's part.

Like, if I'm the party I just assume Sinema can't win because dem turnout will be depressed if it's her on the ballot so you just go for it anyway with the added bonus that you ensure she isn't rewarded for this.

The candidate is elected, not the party, so she can change parties if she wants to.

Feels unfair then that there was no actual democratic candidate

red_sox_777 posted...

The candidate is elected, not the party

This hasn't been true for years.

htaeD posted...

Feels unfair then that there was no actual democratic candidate

Sinema was elected (To a six year term) in 2018, and was not on the ballot in 2020 or 2022 fwiw

She's been a piece of shit basically the entire time in office, but she was officially part of the party for the first four years of her term.

You have to imagine Sinema doesn't want to directly switch to be an R because she'd be stripped of whatever committees she's on. So she makes herself "neutral" but could play that card of going R if the Ds don't play ball with her bullshit.

Sinema still gets primaried in 2024 if she joins the GOP, but she might be delusional enough to think she can win a three-way race. I'm betting that's a factor in going independent rather than flipping.

Manchin should join her to officially strip Senate control from the Dems and give it to the team of Manchin and Sinema.

I am a little surprised that in First Past the Post, no one has ever really tried this kind of blackmail strategy before, where if you know you can't win a primary you just declare you'll run as an Independent to force the party into supporting you.

Id be lying if I said I hadnt fantasized about running in my town against Matt Gaetz and trying to out-MAGA him before doing a face-turn

https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1601240384054886400

Spoilers! It was never actually about "accurate" voting, and the leftist alarmists were right all along. Crazy, huh

Yesmar_ posted...

I am a little surprised that in First Past the Post, no one has ever really tried this kind of blackmail strategy before, where if you know you can't win a primary you just declare you'll run as an Independent to force the party into supporting you.

Joe Lieberman!

Though that was after he already lost the primary