Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 441: Containing Politics Whether it Likes it or Not

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KamikazePotato
11/01/24 4:21:01 PM
#101:


I've low-key thinking it's going to be a blowout for a while now, but I don't want to say it out loud and invoke the law of Fire Emblem Crits.

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Bospsychopaat
11/01/24 4:22:06 PM
#102:


Thorn posted...
First poll closings in the country are 6 PM ET (parts of Indiana and Kentucky.) After that it's mostly another bunch of poll closings every hour for 7 hours.

Significant-ish ones (all times Eastern):

6 PM - Parts of Indiana and Kentucky
7 PM - GA, VA, most of Florida
7:30 - NC, OH
8 PM - First really big chunk: PA, nearly all of MI, NH, ME
8:30 - Arkansas by itself
9 PM - Another big chunk - NY, WI, AZ, CO, MN
10 PM - NV, MT
11 PM - West Coast (CA/OR/WA) Lower 48 is done at this point.
Midnight - HI, most of Alaska
1 AM - Rest of Alaska

People will start to try and read tea leaves out of those 6 PM closings (but because it's only parts of those states and not the entirety I don't think they can/will actually call them at that point). If things are clearly leaning one way (like massive polling error) or the other we might know with that 7 PM drop, but I'd say it's that 8 PM one that will start to tell the story - even if only "really is that close" or "polls were wrong (in either direction)".

Thing is, if it's as close as it's been polling you wouldn't even really expect it to be called on Tuesday night or even Wednesday morning. That would only happen if one or the other appears to be running away with it. Maybe you get some calls (of close swing states) in the 1 AM-3 AM area but poll workers do eventually have to call it a day and sleep.

And I guess technically there's that small town in NH that has like a dozen voting eligible people that traditionally votes right at midnight and it immediately reports out so first results would "technically" be them I think.

Thanks for the detailed breakdown. Guess I'll get get up at around 6 (1AM ET) to follow up and avoid spending my work day reading up on what I've missed.
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AuraChannelerCh
11/01/24 4:26:12 PM
#103:


The ramblings of two weird old men:

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1852431776372658290

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1852431254819336331

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852430289924174324

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1852424284641042643

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kevwaffles
11/01/24 4:26:18 PM
#104:


Oh, of course

https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1852424400768753832

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AuraChannelerCh
11/01/24 4:28:58 PM
#105:


kevwaffles posted...
Oh, of course

https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1852424400768753832
so that was trump's secret plan

good ol' putin interference

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red_sox_777
11/01/24 4:31:15 PM
#106:


Corrik7 posted...
I felt like Kamala a few days ago. My girlfriend was all excited and offered to drive me to the county seat to early vote before I changed my mind. They I saw a clip of Kamala saying how everyone needs to stay woke and be so woke. So i soured on the idea. But then I came back around to her again yesterday. I just feel like Trump just needed to stop talking this final week cuz everything he says makes me not want to vote for him.

Did Kamala really say everyone needs to be woke? If so, when did she say that? The meaning has sort of evolved over the years.

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AuraChannelerCh
11/01/24 4:34:16 PM
#107:


I'm pretty sure only weirdos try to make "woke" sound like an actual word but comes across as street slang anyway.

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swordz9
11/01/24 4:36:41 PM
#108:


Being more woke is better for America anyways since the people who are anti-woke are largely racists and/or sexists anyways
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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 4:37:55 PM
#109:


Woke is just a synonym for not being a dipshit nowadays.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 4:40:33 PM
#110:


This is a fucking absurd shift, regardless of the MSG rally comment.

https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852445457529880957?t=d_DsCY3eFz-G4DxXqI5PRw&s=19

Would love to call it a truth nuke, but it's probably just a fucked up sample size. If those were to be the actual numbers then Harris would likely win Florida.

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LightningStrikes
11/01/24 4:41:44 PM
#111:


Thats an absolutely tiny sample size. Not worth anything sadly.

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AuraChannelerCh
11/01/24 4:45:30 PM
#112:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
This is a fucking absurd shift, regardless of the MSG rally comment.

https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852445457529880957?t=d_DsCY3eFz-G4DxXqI5PRw&s=19

Would love to call it a truth nuke, but it's probably just a fucked up sample size. If those were to be the actual numbers then Harris would likely win Florida.
You may as well run a Gamefaqs poll with those numbers!

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 4:49:26 PM
#113:


Yeah it's gotta be a miss lol.

However this one is nuts.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1852434431371555148?t=tUGnbOyU3fF484Ct5ZwneA&s=19

This is the defacto Republican internal bias pollster. Like, add +4 to +5 D, +3 minimum. Like the Senate polling leak from last month, it's the kind of thing that you assume must have been revealed on accident. Releasing these numbers for them when they know every actual aggregator is going to bump it up to a Harris tie or win across the board when their entire job description is to be bullish for Republicans is insane.

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Suprak_the_Stud
11/01/24 4:50:30 PM
#114:


AuraChannelerCh posted...
You may as well run a Gamefaqs poll with those numbers!

Here's how Jay Solano could still win.

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Dark_Young_Link
11/01/24 4:53:49 PM
#115:


kevwaffles posted...
Oh, of course

https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1852424400768753832

"Putin told me he didn't do this, so he didn't do this." - Some dipshit up for election

UshiromiyaEva posted...
This is a fucking absurd shift, regardless of the MSG rally comment.

https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852445457529880957?t=d_DsCY3eFz-G4DxXqI5PRw&s=19

Would love to call it a truth nuke, but it's probably just a fucked up sample size. If those were to be the actual numbers then Harris would likely win Florida.


Small sample size aside, that is a hilariously lopsided percentage. How lovely would it be if Harris really did get 85% of the Puerto Rican vote at the end of all of this!

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 4:55:19 PM
#116:


https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1852436874985685303?t=aniUL6nArFAoodZMS9XZJQ&s=19

80% of Trump's advertising airtime being Kamala is for They/Them ads (I believe that is the actual percentage and not an exaggeration) is actually the thing that may legitimately cost him the election, but he would never, ever admit to that.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 4:56:39 PM
#117:


Dark_Young_Link posted...
Small sample size aside, that is a hilariously lopsided percentage. How lovely would it be if Harris really did get 85% of the Puerto Rican vote at the end of all of this!

If that translated to PA it would be a total obliteration.

A number like this would keep the Senate for the Dems all on it's own, too, if it translated downballot


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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:02:33 PM
#118:


Musk might be better at getting Democrats out to vote than Republicans!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/04610574.jpg

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Thorn
11/01/24 5:02:44 PM
#119:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
80% of Trump's advertising airtime being Kamala is for They/Them ads (I believe that is the actual percentage and not an exaggeration) is actually the thing that may legitimately cost him the election, but he would never, ever admit to that.
I think I only get his ads on national stuff like sports games but it has been legit crazy how focused his ad campaign has been on that. I can easily believe that ratio simply because it matches my experience when watching basketball/football/etc.

Only in the past two days or so have I seen an ad from him that actually focuses more on the economy/immigration and while it's of course still gross af, it at least seems like the kind of ad he should be running if he wanted to persuade voters. Meanwhile, weeks upon weeks (and still ongoing) of "Kamala is for they/them" trash.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:04:03 PM
#120:


Pollsters getting bored now I guess lol

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1852436071734534274?t=5QIlmUCVHCC05InrDcX-Yg&s=19

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PeaceFrog
11/01/24 5:05:48 PM
#121:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Musk might be better at getting Democrats out to vote than Republicans!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/04610574.jpg
Musk has made a stronger argument for higher tax rates on the rich than any other individual in the current century

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:06:42 PM
#122:


Thorn posted...
Only in the past two days or so have I seen an ad from him that actually focuses more on the economy/immigration and while it's of course still gross af, it at least seems like the kind of ad he should be running if he wanted to persuade voters. Meanwhile, weeks upon weeks (and still ongoing) of "Kamala is for they/them" trash.

This thing playing in sports bars and during games may actually be a major factor in the Dems push for the suburbs this year. Of course they have been making an actual effort, but the suburb normies don't like seeing things they think are "wierd". They aren't anti-Trans for the most part, they don't want to THINK about it, and Trump has been shoving it in their face.

This is why, electorally, Kamala not actually engaging with the subject at all was absolutely the correct call to make.

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Esuriat
11/01/24 5:08:03 PM
#123:


Yeah Musk attempting to turn the election into not only a referendum on Trumpism, but also on himself, has probably done Trump zero favors.

I have only seen two Trump ads on TV. The first was purely a transphobic ad, and the other was about immigration, but bending it back to transphobia with the lie he told during the debate with Harris about them allegedly getting free surgeries.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:09:27 PM
#124:


It's a miracle I never thought In would ever see....people in Trump's own crowd turning on him for rambling. They can feel the shift. Doesn't help that the crowd is absolutely miniscule.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852455474823925868?t=HDjf-qtviOToV14RRPjBIw&s=19

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kevwaffles
11/01/24 5:14:25 PM
#125:


Bwahaha

https://x.com/ClaraJeffery/status/1852363686599639496

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:24:58 PM
#140:


Trump's handlers screaming into a crushed up stack of papers right now.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1852472860142448944?t=zkeS2qkti_dilTG0Hia0XQ&s=19

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ChaosTonyV4
11/01/24 5:26:19 PM
#126:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9fga52gaus

How far can you make it?

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:28:39 PM
#127:


Trump crashing in the betting markets (they don't matter it's just funny). Even without all this stuff recently, the French dude who was responsible for the largest chunk of money on the Polymarket bet ($30 Million) got interviewed, and was revealed to just be some guy who didn't pay attention to American politics until this Summer at all and just felt like Trump was probably gonna win for no actual reason other than gut, and people started pulling out.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/2/2d275e1d.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/3/38d6b844.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1d79e316.jpg

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AuraChannelerCh
11/01/24 5:30:09 PM
#141:


Is...he now outlining how shooting Liz Cheney will go?

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:33:19 PM
#128:


Add Mike Johnson to the blame list for Trump because this guy needs a MUZZLE.

https://twitter.com/lukeradel/status/1852457020877582462?t=XJempWG1XrvasMX3xSLeVw&s=19

Arizona just surpassed Taiwan in chip manufacturing LAST WEEK!

And these are the states affected by the CHIPs act. Absolutely NUTS thing to sayn

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/5/50a1bfdd.jpg

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Dancedreamer
11/01/24 5:36:53 PM
#129:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
How far can you make it?

4 seconds.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:48:45 PM
#142:


Elon has to be in court on Monday afternoon lol.

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CrimsonGear80
11/01/24 5:49:05 PM
#130:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Musk might be better at getting Democrats out to vote than Republicans!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/04610574.jpg

it's afraid

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greengravy294
11/01/24 5:52:22 PM
#131:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Pollsters getting bored now I guess lol

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1852436071734534274?t=5QIlmUCVHCC05InrDcX-Yg&s=19
No way in hell Baker runs for Senate. Id be floored.

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CackIetta
11/01/24 5:54:18 PM
#143:


Trump is fucked and he knows it.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:55:22 PM
#132:


Fuckin. Georgiaaaaa.

https://twitter.com/dataandpolitics/status/1852462216945205314?t=gwPPDP6XmFktnxYfYANZKg&s=19

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1b009e26.jpg

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wallmasterz
11/01/24 5:55:41 PM
#133:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Musk might be better at getting Democrats out to vote than Republicans!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/04610574.jpg

In other words Dems will hold him accountable for crimes lol

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wallmasterz
11/01/24 5:56:26 PM
#134:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Fuckin. Georgiaaaaa.

https://twitter.com/dataandpolitics/status/1852462216945205314?t=gwPPDP6XmFktnxYfYANZKg&s=19

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/1b009e26.jpg

what are these numbers? % of eligible voters who have voted?

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Lopen
11/01/24 5:56:55 PM
#135:


Just early voted.

First time in my life I voted straight party Democrat across the whole ticket. Felt kinda weird! Usually at least a local election I'll go Republican or third party.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 5:59:56 PM
#136:


wallmasterz posted...
what are these numbers? % of eligible voters who have voted?

Registered voter turnout, yes.

GA early voting is absolutely dominating the rest of the country.

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 6:01:18 PM
#137:


Lopen posted...
Just early voted.

First time in my life I voted straight party Democrat across the whole ticket. Felt kinda weird! Usually at least a local election I'll go Republican or third party.

Harris was literally the only Democrat on the ticket here other than Court Magistrate lol. Most of the elections were unopposed Rs.

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Umbreon
11/01/24 6:05:19 PM
#144:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
Elon has to be in court on Monday afternoon lol.

Will there be actual consequences if he doesn't show up? Cause if not, he'll probably skip.

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Bat178
11/01/24 6:06:32 PM
#145:


red_sox_777 posted...
Virginia is unlikely to be called within an hour because they don't like calling it for the Democrat while the Republican has a lead in the actual votes counted, and the Republican almost always holds a lead in Virginia until like 85%+ of precincts are counted because the last precincts to be counted are heavily Democratic and much larger than average by population. If you see Trump up 65/35 early on in Virginia, don't be alarmed.

The above is all with the caveat that these trends could change due to vote counting procedures changing, such as if Northern Virginia figures out how to count votes faster.
There was also the SCOTUS fuckery with Virginia mentioned in a previous topic.

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Not_an_Owl
11/01/24 6:07:14 PM
#146:


Umbreon posted...
Will there be actual consequences if he doesn't show up? Cause if not, he'll probably skip.
he's a rich white man, of course there won't be consequences

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UshiromiyaEva
11/01/24 6:09:06 PM
#147:


But my Needle! I need my Needle!

https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852476507232346498?t=bwS8A2oGd71rDLUih0UZJg&s=19

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wallmasterz
11/01/24 6:10:12 PM
#148:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
But my Needle! I need my Needle!

https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852476507232346498?t=bwS8A2oGd71rDLUih0UZJg&s=19

Heres why this is bad for Kamala Harris

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Metal_DK
11/01/24 6:11:00 PM
#138:


I'm saying, I see a lot of support for Harris here in metro Atlanta. It's very very much in play

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AriaOfBolo
11/01/24 6:19:16 PM
#139:


UshiromiyaEva posted...


80% of Trump's advertising airtime being Kamala is for They/Them ads (I believe that is the actual percentage and not an exaggeration) is actually the thing that may legitimately cost him the election, but he would never, ever admit to that.

inshallah

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Bat178
11/01/24 6:26:04 PM
#149:


UshiromiyaEva posted...
But my Needle! I need my Needle!

https://twitter.com/PollTracker2024/status/1852476507232346498?t=bwS8A2oGd71rDLUih0UZJg&s=19
Honestly, fuck the NYT. I've hated their guts ever since they got Pepe Le Pew cancelled.

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wallmasterz
11/01/24 6:28:13 PM
#150:


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/f44dd0fe.jpg

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