Current Events > Jon Ralston predictions on Nevada; narrow Harris victory

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions

Prediction seems to be comfortable for Rosen (D) but extremely narrow (48.5 Harris to 48.2 Trump) for the presidency, notes that it will not be called on election night. This is probably the most credible analyst on Nevada elections, though other people have made similar projections that Nevada is tilt Democrat.

The GOP holds a few thousand vote in lead, but the expectation is that this represents a lot of former eday voters, meaning many GOP votes have been banked and this means eday will skew less Republican. This relies on union machines working hard for turnout and the "other" column in party votes breaking for Harris, which seems plausible. I recommend reading it, but it tells a very uncertain story on the presidency.

It's Trover

I've been saying from the get go that people dooming over the EV are fools. NV didn't go red when Hillary lost. It's not going red tomorrow.

Are we gonna get Stop the Start the Count Round 2?

every time they switch leads.

STOP THE COUNT

or

DONT STOP THE COUNT!

You love to see it.

ReiRei89 posted...

I've been saying from the get go that people dooming over the EV are fools. NV didn't go red when Hillary lost. It's not going red tomorrow.

Ralston has been one of those people dooming over EV

Nevada politics is weird to me. I moved to Vegas 2 years ago, people voted in Lombard for governor, have some enthusiasm for voting for trump (seen quite a few trump flags/signs in the henderson area) then reelect every dem local possible including the mayor here that's family has had office since like the 70s.

I'm starting to think their low education rank might not be the teachers fault. He'll my neighbors are like Trump is a threat to us as service workers, but I don't want to vote Kamal because my union is basically forcing me to.

UnholyMudcrab posted...

Ralston has been one of those people dooming over EV

Yeah which also why in the NV thread I kept telling people to not doom over it. I remember Ralston dooming in 2022 as well even though Dems pulled a W there despite the GOP running up the early vote.

ReiRei89 posted...

I've been saying from the get go that people dooming over the EV are fools. NV didn't go red when Hillary lost. It's not going red tomorrow.

NV's been moving more Red (which is odd since it swung way blue in 2008), but then again it might be they just really don't like Biden for some reason. Iirc it was like his worst swing state before Harris got in.

Ralston has been especially trolly these past few days

Justin2Krelian posted...

NV's been moving more Red (which is odd since it swung way blue in 2008), but then again it might be they just really don't like Biden for some reason. Iirc it was like his worst swing state before Harris got in.

Nevada didn't swing back red. Sisolak got hooted in 2022 due to pandemic backlash.

Ralston Reports for Harris. Ralston Purina for Maga.

Brb gonna read the MAGA Twitter replies.

My prediction. I'm hoping there's a bigger percentage of registered Republicans crossing over to vote for Kamala Harris than you typically see. Like 5-10% of all registered Republicans in the whole country. Even though Republicans have a small lead in registered early votes in Nevada, it might not actually be a lead for Trump, and Harris will end up overperforming Ralston's and others predictions in Nevada and elsewhere in other swing states.

It'll be a much more comfortable win, but we'll see. Everyone has to get out and vote though.

Only just now saw this and expected there to be a topic on it already, and here it was
I agree with his assessment that it's super hard to call because of how hard the independents might break for Harris and the general voting pattern shifts with many of the election-day voters voting early this time making early voting hard to read.
I feel like Arizona then Nevada will be the closest states by total voter difference