Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1383

(+) Yeah! (+)

Scheduling notes for when contest retrospectives begin for 2025:

Game of the Decade 1 - 10/20
Games 2015: 11/5

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4071-north-division-round-1-batman-arkham-asylum-vs-psychonauts

As much as I was not a huge fan of the 12-hour match format, it did come in handy for completely uninteresting matches like this one. Beyond the opening minutes, it basically stayed in the 72% range the entire time, and it finished less than a percent off of the Oracle average, so Batman did as expected.

But this goes back to the flaw of the format. It was good for bad matches, but it was bad for good matches.

Going back to the previous match since it closed the topic, oh man the Deus Ex fans might take the cake by complaining about a match they were winning.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4072-north-division-round-1-team-fortress-2-vs-fable

This broke the record for closest wire-to-wire match that Frog/Liquid set back in 2004 (with the caveat that this was a 12-hour match). TF2's peak lead was a mere 210. Despite how close it was, Fable only had the lead on 28 total updates (the equivalent of about 2 hours and 20 minutes) and its max lead was 36. So even though it was super close, we didn't have a lot of lead changes. Team Fortress 2 kept doing just enough to keep Fable at bay.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4073-north-division-round-1-uncharted-2-vs-legend-of-dragoon

There was some debate over how strong Legend of Dragoon would be. It had won its vote-in poll, but it was also regarded as a somewhat divisive game. People also had relatively high expectations for Uncharted 2, so the Oracle average was 62.70% here.

Uncharted 2 had a doubling at the freeze, but it dropped below 60% a little over an hour in and the match stabilized in the 57% range after about three and a half hours. Most considered this a good performance for Legend of Dragoon, but it was yet to be seen if it was because it had real strength or Uncharted 2 had been overestimated.

2010 was nice in that it brought in a ton of new blood. Lots of matches felt debatable just because, who knows?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4074-north-division-round-1-sonic-adventure-2-vs-street-fighter

Street Fighter as a franchise is probably one of our biggest underachievers in these contests (aside from Ryu). SF2 lost in embarrassing fashion to Mario RPG in the original Games Contest. It was beaten handily twice by Sonic 1 in 2009. SF4 was beaten by GTA4 and edged out Persona 4 by only a handful of votes in that same contest.

For me (and others), it wasn't that I had confidence in Sonic Adventure 2. I just had no faith in Street Fighter IV. SA2 got off to an early lead off of the back of the board voting for its brackets, but SF4 quickly took control and was never really threatened despite the relatively close final margin.

This was the first instance of the board getting owned by the casuals as well. Street Fighter IV had 70% of the overall brackets picking it to win here.

The second upset already where the entrant that won in the US lost the overall match. Interestingly, despite SA2 winning the US 51/49, SFIV won 54/46 in Canada, a decent sized discrepancy, especially considering that the fighting game fans in California were pumping up SFIV's numbers in the US.

I know I'm a couple days late, but Rock Band 2 also won 53/47 in the US (and Canada), and still lost the match, one of the bigger discrepancies in a 1v1.*

*Oregon Trail was also beating Pac-Man 53/47 in the US in 2009, but that was a second place battle in a 4 way.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4075-north-division-round-1-halo-3-vs-super-mario-sunshine

Sometimes the "It's freakin' MARIO" strategy backfires, and this is a prime example. Sunshine was not only the favorite to win this match in the Guru but to win three matches! I don't want to say I don't get it because it was the sole Nintendo game in this entire division, but somehow a lot of people managed to convince themselves that Sunshine isn't a divisive/hated game.

Like the previous match, Sunshine led for the first couple of minutes behind the power of the board vote, but Halo 3 took the lead and never looked back. Once again, the casuals dominated the board, as Halo 3 had an 80% prediction percentage. This wouldn't be the last instance in this contest of "oh yeah, it really was as simple as just picking the game most people actually like."

Leonhart4 posted...

Sometimes the "It's freakin' MARIO" strategy backfires, and this is a prime example.

Have to choose carefully with this. Sunshine may be a Mario game, but it doesn't sit on the Mario council.

Eh it was close enough.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4076-north-division-round-1-halo-combat-evolved-vs-ninja-gaiden

I get what Allen was going for, setting up a pseudo-rematch of Master Chief/Hayabusa from the Character Battle earlier in the year, but this was an obvious outcome. It's worth mentioning that slightly more people overall picked Halo 3 to beat Sunshine than picked Halo to beat Ninja Gaiden.

It seemed like a place a Nintendo game could make a deep run. Anyway, Halo > Sunshine > Halo 3 was fairly popular I think and not that costly.

A lot of people had that, yeah, but a lot of people had Sunshine getting to the division finals and losing to Fallout 3. That was the crazy part to me.

Yeah, I think the Sunshine vs. Halo chronicles was at least really good bracket/match making on the part of Allen. The board might have eaten shit here, but at the same time, it's hard to think of too many times where you would even think a mainline Mario platformer would drop to not even the most popular Halo.

Yeah, it's fantastic bracket making. That GotD was one of Allen's better brackets, but it was also kind of a hard concept to screw up because of all the unknowns and variables.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4077-northeast-division-round-1-metroid-prime-vs-star-ocean-3

We got to see the Metroid board vote on full display here. Prime had 80% at the freeze and was at nearly 77% by the end of the Power Hour. It was a gradual decline from there on out, but it had announced its presence to start off this division.

Today's poll is a close race! Gooooooo, "I've been to several concerts" option!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4078-northeast-division-round-1-mother-3-vs-devil-may-cry-3

This might have been one of the more curious situations for a match where the winner was obvious, specifically for Oracle predictions. Nobody really knew what to think of Mother 3. The game was famously never released in English, but it also had a widely circulated fan translation. How strong could it reasonably be?

Nobody expected great strength from DMC3, but again, it was facing a game that never had an English release. The Oracle average was 77% and only 13 of 128 Oracle pickers had DMC3 getting under 70% here.

It was obvious quickly that this wasn't going to be as big of a number as we thought. DMC3 had 65% at the freeze and basically held steady the whole way.

I'm just glad DMC3 got a win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4079-northeast-division-round-1-demons-souls-vs-mega-man-9

This was the first real tossup in terms of total bracket picks. Mega Man 9 only had a 54.91% bracket percentage. This was also the biggest seeding upset of the contest. Mega Man 9 had 56% at the freeze, and while Demon's Souls was able to whittle down the final percentage, it never made a real push to win.

I forgot that demon's souls even made the bracket

Easiest flip of the contest? (Besides Brawl matches)

Probably. I'm not sold on Demon's Souls itself being a beast since it's not one of the 4 that people really care about (Dark Souls, Bloodborne, Sekiro, Elden Ring), but it should have an easy enough time against Mega Man 9.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4080-northeast-division-round-1-okami-vs-no-more-heroes

Not much to say about this one. Okami exceeded the Oracle average by about 10% and established itself as the favorite against Mega Man 9 next round.

I'm sure Demon's Souls gets a little respect boost from the Souls series growing since GotD1. Certainly enough to flip MM9, but I don't think it's jumping strength tiers either.

MM9 is probably weaker now than it was back then, too. That alone is probably enough to flip that result.

Oh hey, cool POTD

Ratchet & Clank was winning when I voted aw yeah

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4081-northeast-division-round-1-tales-of-symphonia-vs-resident

Symphonia had scored a big upset against God of War in the 4-ways Games Contest in 2009, so naturally, Allen set up a rematch in GotD. There were many people who thought Symphonia was a 4-way wonder and didn't stand a chance in a one-on-one setting.

Symphonia didn't help its case by struggling against Resident Evil 5, which was a pretty divisive game, despite how it clearly seemed to boost Wesker. Turned out that RE5 was pretty decent in terms of strength.

I love that Like a Dragon is third in the poll. It's beating Devil May Cry!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4082-northeast-division-round-1-god-of-war-vs-left-4-dead

Not much to say about this one. GoW established itself as the favorite next round, and both L4D games were basically wasted.

Resident Evil 5 being the Ultimate Loser, yet placing in the Top 32, was quite a feat.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4083-northeast-division-round-1-littlebigplanet-vs-grand-theft

We hadn't seen GTA3 in a contest setting before, and there were some who speculated that it could be the strongest game in the series and maybe even give Half-Life 2 a good fight. GTA3 actually demonstrated a strong board vote (uncharacteristic for the series), starting off at around 70% at the freeze. LittleBigPlanet gradually bled it down from there, and any hopes that GTA3 could contend for the division were essentially dashed.

Big_Bob posted...

I love that Like a Dragon is third in the poll. It's beating Devil May Cry!

It has the advantage of having multiple great games in the past 10 years, a feat most of the others can't match.

Kinda surprising to see Monster Hunter do so bad. People must've really turned on Wilds

I don't think this site particularly cared about Monster Hunter as a whole. They just seemed to like World.

The GTA games all seem pretty similar in strength. They're like the MGS series in that regard, except we eventually figured out the MGS hierarchy while GTA will always be a question mark.

MacArrowny posted...

Kinda surprising to see Monster Hunter do so bad. People must've really turned on Wilds

Monster Hunter games have pretty much always put up GotY and other PotD showings ranging from lackluster to horrible, World included. The sheer extent to which World fared better in 2020 than in its preceding polls confuses me, particularly since it naturally skewed further towards registered users than I think any other contest entrant we've seen in the double vote era...

Oh yeah, just a bit notable with Wilds in particular. It did fairly well at first:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9815-which-scheduled-february-release-are-you-most-looking
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9874-whats-your-pick-for-the-best-game-of-2025-so-far

and then started losing to games it beat

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9965-at-the-halfway-mark-whats-your-pick-for-the-best-game-of

I think if it had been received as well as World, MH would've done somewhat better in the franchise poll.

KamikazePotato posted...

The GTA games all seem pretty similar in strength.

Which is wild because San Andreas is clearly a tier above most of them imoooo

It looked fine back in 2009 and 2010 but I'd be doubtful about GTAIV still being on par with the others.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8782-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game-title

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4084-northeast-division-round-1-half-life-2-vs-left-4-dead-2

If there was any doubt left about the next round, Half-Life 2 erased it with a near tripling of L4D2.

Is Left 4 Dead the most random series to get multiple entrants in a Character Battle and a Games Contest?

4 steam games in the bracket and they have to go up against each other in r1

AxemRedRanger posted...

It looked fine back in 2009 and 2010 but I'd be doubtful about GTAIV still being on par with the others.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8782-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game-title

I think GTA is a case where the most recent title is going to be be the strongest at any given time. GTA V did good for itself in GotD2, but I would have no faith in IV retaining much strength and would likely have it below 3 or VC or SA, much like how Brawl or 4 wouldn't have much going for itself compared to Melee or Ultimate.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4085-east-division-round-1-smash-bros-melee-vs-guitar-hero-ii

This was the biggest blowout of the contest by a decent margin. Melee was one of the favorites to win the entire contest and it showed why right away.

We need that game of the 90s bracket to see if FFIV is that legit

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4086-east-division-round-1-warcraft-iii-vs-morrowind

This is probably the last time we trusted Blizzard in a debated match. Warcraft III was a big favorite on the board and overall (only 32.76% of total brackets had Morrowind winning). It got off to a good start, with 57% at the freeze. Morrowind cut 30 votes and brought it down to 52% on the next update, so we knew Warcraft was in trouble. It held onto the lead for an hour and a half, but once Morrowind took the lead, it was never really challenged again.

I need to thank my friend who never shut up about Morrowind (and later, Oblivion) during lunch at school for that pick.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4087-east-division-round-1-perfect-dark-vs-conkers-bad-fur-day

An N64 showdown! Which went pretty much exactly as we expected it would.