The only way I see Death as Town is if: A) Reg can manipulate how he is scanned (or I suppose Inno-Scanning) B)Caelus trying to lynch Raka was a gambit (doubtful)
Fett has the benefit of the doubt from the Miller claim D1 and how he reacts when claiming D2 (though I suspect he would be informed of any claims the previous person had made).
At this point I'm pretty much thinking Scum has to be Death + Tom/Reg with the alternatives to Tom or Reg being Fett/Boko. Death being Town would make my Scum team Tom and Reg/Fett
Most likely SK is Caelus or Fett. I wouldn't put it past someone who knows what they are doing to take control of the SK lynch hunt while actually being the SK. If he thinks he has the Scum team figured out he could afford a Town lynch assuming he'll hit Scum at night.
Caelus "being framed" comments are a bit weird, but it's hard to tell with new people whether they are genuinely concerned, or flailing scum.
Just if so, that means Chris scanned Reg the same night that Spiral saw Silver.
That still works for Inno-Scan SK with Scan Manipulation, but for scum I was kind of thinking it was more likely he had to either choose to manipulate someone's scan on him or someone else's scan. Basically he could cast a mirage over himself, or infront of someone else. (So if he had manipulated Spiral that night, he wouldn't be able to make himself look Inno).
Excellent. Once again, the game has ground to a stop.
Boko's entire "aim for 2v1v1" argument hinges on both mafia and SK needing to kill the other to win. I agree, that if we end up there, that's the only way town can win. (other than stupidity.)
I'm saying though, that if either mafia or SK doesn't need to kill the other, then town loses. The only way to avoid that chance: Lynch SK now.
You might be wondering:
"Fett, but what if there are 3 mafia left?"
Well, town, we're f***ed. Even if we lynch mafia, the only way we can win is with a cross kill. Of course, for that to work, SK still needs to be not bulletproof.
Basically, if you think it is likely that an SK would be bulletproof, the only way to win is by lynching him today. If not, or if you think that 3 mafia remaining is more likely than a bulletproof SK, then you should join boko on his lynch.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
From: Fett0001 | #464 You're thinking about it wrong. SK can't be killed by scum, so doesn't care who dies, so long as as many people as possible do so.
That's why 2 v 1 v 1 won't work for town. It goes to either 1 v 1 v 1 or 0 v 1 v 1
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
From: Fett0001 | #458 Boko's entire "aim for 2v1v1" argument hinges on both mafia and SK needing to kill the other to win. I agree, that if we end up there, that's the only way town can win. (other than stupidity.)
no no no no no
I don't want 2v1v1 over a more favorable scenario. All I've said is that 2v1v1 does not equal a definite loss for town.
Why are you trying to make it seem like I want a worse case outcome? I want scum lynched today, and if I got to choose, I'd lynch the SK today instead of mafia of course, because that's the better lynch.
The only thing I've been saying that points to me "wanting 2v1v1" is that I would rather lynch "definite scum that's probably mafia but unlikely SK" over "possibly serial killer but just as likely to be town."
Basically, if you think it is likely that an SK would be bulletproof, the only way to win is by lynching him today. If not, or if you think that 3 mafia remaining is more likely than a bulletproof SK, then you should join boko on his lynch.
I'm not even on someone yet.
But my last post with any suspicion was saying "so everyone thinks fett/death aren't town, right"
so I guess you're claiming mafia with death.
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United."
I don't want 2v1v1 over a more favorable scenario. All I've said is that 2v1v1 does not equal a definite loss for town.
Why are you trying to make it seem like I want a worse case outcome? I want scum lynched today, and if I got to choose, I'd lynch the SK today instead of mafia of course, because that's the better lynch.
The only thing I've been saying that points to me "wanting 2v1v1" is that I would rather lynch "definite scum that's probably mafia but unlikely SK" over "possibly serial killer but just as likely to be town."
[quoted text]
I'm not even on someone yet.
But my last post with any suspicion was saying "so everyone thinks fett/death aren't town, right"
so I guess you're claiming mafia with death.
Do you not see that lynching mafia goes to 2v 1 v1, whereas lynching town does the same thing?
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
From: MajinZidane | #467 so I guess you're claiming mafia with death.
Oh no. Boko the mad genius has caught me. From my trying to prevent town from losing, he has divined that to mean that I am mafia. Thanks, Boko. You truly are the best mafia player ever. So great as to completely ignore that, if everyone plays to win, we go to 2v1v1, regardless of the lynch (town or mafia).
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
From: Tom Bombadil | Posted: 2/17/2012 1:03:05 AM | #470 You're making the assumption that scum aren't going to shoot at each other at all and also that they won't stack kills.
--
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/6126/tombombadil.jpg KrahenProphet, however, is!
From: MajinZidane | #473 and yeah, like bolo said, going to 3v1v1 after a mafia lynch is also a pretty realistic world to live in after a stacked kill.
Not with optimal play. There are 4 town. 25% chance of 3v1v1 is not something I'm willing to risk. There's only 2 SK options from where I'm sitting. Sounds like a 50-50 shot at 3v2, which is equivalent to your 25% for 3v1v1, but I'm trying to make it there with my vote, rather than hoping someone else will do it for us.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
From: MajinZidane | #476 yes this is literally my argument lynch town today because i want 2v1v1 going into tomorrow
should i also tell scum and sk who to shoot so they don't accidentally both shoot the same person? i need to maximize my 2v1v1 odds, after all.
I'm glad we're on the same page. I want to avoid having to NL. I don't want my victory to hinge on two idiotic scum. I want it to be on the backs of my vote. and vaga's vote. And maybe your vote.
-- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/
You do realize that if you base everything off of WCS, 2 SK options is also a 50-50 shot at 1v1v2.
Which is generally what Boko is getting at. "No Duh" it's the best option to lynch the SK today. But lynching someone who is relatively unanimously thought of as Scum is safer than flipping a coin and deciding which person is the SK.
I'm not going to continue just talking about this during our day after this point.
I want to figure out who SK is and who mafia is. I want to lynch the SK today. If town is unable to determine who the SK is despite its best efforts, then instead of "hurrr durrr let's lynch town hurrrr" i would rather lynch definite scum that's probably mafia and low shot of an SK.
I'm not suggesting that we make a sub optimal play today.
Stop putting words in my mouth.
I'm merely saying that I would rather lynch mafia than town (YES, WHAT AN ORIGINAL POSITION) and that a mafia lynch isn't exactly the same as a town lynch (because it isn't).
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United."
From: Mr_Vaga | #479 You do realize that if you base everything off of WCS, 2 SK options is also a 50-50 shot at 1v1v2.
Which is generally what Boko is getting at. "No Duh" it's the best option to lynch the SK today. But lynching someone who is relatively unanimously thought of as Scum is safer than flipping a coin and deciding which person is the SK.
thank you, vaga.
Plus, from our point of view, Vaga, we don't "know" that Fett isn't the SK (because from your perspective, he's gotta be one of the people you're most sure of as scum, right?)
although I don't think he is SK, merely a mafia goon instead.
-- Virtue - "You don't need a reason to Boko United."