Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Topic 4: Deathly in Love

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red13n
02/29/24 3:36:13 AM
#251:


I never said they would roleblock in perpetuity either. The only reason they would have to RB would be if death was protecting someone they wanted to shoot. Especially since his protection would be limited.

(This is relevant since everyone is assuming death would claim, which I again say he would not).

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#252
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SirChris
02/29/24 6:18:44 AM
#253:


Wolf/wolf or paired

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#254
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SirChris
02/29/24 6:23:49 AM
#255:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Oh wow, Isquen is getting heat on day 2. Again.

You have the out available, bud. Im not budging.
No thoughts on lopen's observation?

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Isquen
02/29/24 6:54:23 AM
#256:


UltimaterializerX posted...
Oh wow, Isquen is getting heat on day 2. Again.

You have the out available, bud. Im not budging.

Appreciated, because:

Hey, Lopen! Yes, hi, hello, there's a big difference between "failing to read the end of day flip" and "actually reviewing the prior day and watching the start of day flip and posts." If Corrik wasn't being mega-suspicious of me already, he could confirm exactly *when* I noticed the "Peaf was scum" change as I said "good not-talk" right before the start of day. I was a wee bit more hyper-aware of wording at that point.

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#257
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Corrik7
02/29/24 7:59:14 AM
#258:


SirChris posted...
No thoughts on lopen's observation?
I think he would be more likely to read the flip thoroughly if he just before realized he didn't read the prior flip correctly tbqh. I also don't think you really believe that line of attack is actually a good one.

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TheSultanOfSlam
02/29/24 8:24:27 AM
#259:


Did not sleep well last night woke up late now have to rush to work.

So I see Chris doesn't think he was shot so that's interesting atleast.

I'm getting the usual amount of shade from the usual kind of people on day 2 like always so that don't bother me to to much.

Will read more when I get to work

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Enchantress
02/29/24 8:27:19 AM
#260:


My flight home yesterday was oversold by seven, and when they announced they were handing out cash, hotel and meal vouchers I was first over the wall. This has the downside of me travelling all day again. I see that even my beloved Lopen has turned on me. You hate to see it. I know my posts are largely whimsical sex jokes, but there is a method to my madness damnit. I said I wanted to save Kirby and break up Dumey/Peaf to kill Peaf, and then I did that. But Ulti comes in saying kill the witch? Bah. Where's my parade!? FD's Ulti night phase joke was truly hilarious tho

Did Dumey ever expound on his thoughts regarding dating and undating Peaf? Why he broke up with Peaf not expecting Peaf to actually do it, etc. I only catch up on jokes.
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Kirby321
02/29/24 8:41:10 AM
#261:


Would be pretty funny if MZero swooped in right now to date Ulti just to screw over Isquen

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EDumey
02/29/24 8:47:54 AM
#262:


SirChris posted...
Btw death and I discussed this. You misunderstood my post I was offering to towncase myself during the night
I knew this was a possible interpretation of your post, but I still didn't like it as a "Hey Lopen, protect me, I swear I'm good for it, haha" ploy. Promising future value and then dipping for the rest of the day is not a great look.

But as should be clear from my other posts today, post Death flip I've moved you down in priority and am looking elsewhere. But you're still strongly in my suspect list.

Enchantress posted...
Did Dumey ever expound on his thoughts regarding dating and undating Peaf? Why he broke up with Peaf not expecting Peaf to actually do it, etc. I only catch up on jokes.

Not sure what extra context you're asking for. I pretty much said it as it happened. And still stand by those posts.
When I originally dated Peaf I didn't have much of a read on him one way or the other. I thought it was funny because of my argument with Lopen at the time, and I thought I could get a player read seeing how Peaf would use the date later on. (Technically this played out, because he didn't do the Town Peaf thing I would expect of him starting to distrust me later in the day!)
When we got to what was starting to look like a settled end of day, with the options being what looked like a genuine Vanilla Kirby, JC who I liked in general, and a Lea who put herself in that situation with no offramp, I thought that it was probable that everyone on the chopping block was town. So when you asked me to switch it up, I went for it, not really expecting that Peaf would put himself in danger. Even as Town, he would have little motivation to do so. But my read of Peaf at that point was still 50/50, he hadn't provided enough content for me to think of him as town or scum. So putting the neutral Peaf in the pool over the three people I had at least some reason to think was town was okay with me. Upside is that if scum Peaf left to save someone, that feels pretty damning.
Then Peaf actually took the breakup, and went for Kirby, and had his "oh I forgot JC was trying to date Kirby too. Awk." moment. I don't know how much of that is true, and how much is an excuse. I THINK it makes the most sense that Kirby is town, Peaf thought it was an easy way to score some town cred for "saving" Kirby, and it just didn't go as he planned in his head. There is a far offshoot world where Kirby is scum, and refused Peaf's plan because it would look WAY too suspicious if he took the date while other people like JC had an open date invitation already. Add in the Lea offer and FD making himself available, and there was 0 chance that Kirby went for Peaf in that scenario, dooming him.

TL;DR Town Read > Neutral Read, and a "Why not?" attitude.

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Forceful_Dragon
02/29/24 9:02:28 AM
#263:


Kirby321 posted...
Would be pretty funny if MZero swooped in right now to date Ulti just to screw over Isquen

Ulti would have 28 hours to course-correct if he felt strongly enough about it

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EDumey
02/29/24 9:06:32 AM
#264:


Something to also maybe consider is that a scum JC in that scenario also might have ignored Peaf. JC got kind of shafted by following the Lea plan to save Kirby, then getting passed over entirely. But when all the marbles fell, he extended a date to only me, and not to Peaf as some kind of self-preservation excuse. I think JC would have looked AWFUL if he had offered a date to Peaf instead of or at the same time as me, after having one of his biggest posts of the day basically saying how he appreciated the frame of reference I was approaching the game with. But I feel like as scum, it would have been SO easy to extend a self-preservation date to Peaf there and try to say, "oops my bad" later. The fact this didn't happen makes me think JC wasn't really playing from a scum mindset. But if I'm gonna consider the 2% Scum Kirby case, I think it's also worth looking at JC from the same lens.

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Kirby321
02/29/24 9:16:25 AM
#265:


Oh, right. I guess the last hours of D1 have conditioned me into thinking breakups still had to be mutual.

Well, not that there's any point to rushing the day, but I am totally content to have Isquen, Red, and Corrik duke it out for survival. Chris is likely to be town, but for those who have natural Chrisfear, it's four days of town lynches to get to MyLo. Suffice to say, if Chris is still alive late in the game, he's probably Serial Killer trying to repeatedly murder Lea the Bulletproof. I'm not terribly worried about him right now.

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EDumey
02/29/24 9:24:09 AM
#266:


Honestly I think our best strategy today is probably to just have our strong town reads pair up, and let the less confident reads fight for it.

Ulti-Isquen is probably going to happen regardless of what we say due to Ulti's stubbornness, though I'd like Isquen to not be given a TOTALLY free pass. Just as long as Isquen puts in some effort today, then I'm fine with it.
JC-Kirby as end of day almost assuredly town.
Lopen and Lea can't pair again, and since Lea seems to harbor more doubt on me, something like Dumey-Lopen and Lea-Chris if she feels like Chris isn't likely scum post-Death flip?

That would leave FD, Red, Corrik, MZero, Sultan.

I don't hate that list. I think if this is a GENERAL path we work towards, then MZero needs to convince us he's worth taking to D3 in the first half of the day, not the last half.

Lopen and Lea, if neither of you are comfortable throwing me in the townie list, who out of Chris, FD, Red, Corrik, MZero, Sultan would you want to take out of the fight?

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Forceful_Dragon
02/29/24 9:34:22 AM
#267:


EDumey posted...
Upside is that if scum Peaf left to save someone, that feels pretty damning.
Then Peaf actually took the breakup, and went for Kirby, and had his "oh I forgot JC was trying to date Kirby too. Awk." moment. I don't know how much of that is true, and how much is an excuse. I THINK it makes the most sense that Kirby is town, Peaf thought it was an easy way to score some town cred for "saving" Kirby, and it just didn't go as he planned in his head. There is a far offshoot world where Kirby is scum, and refused Peaf's plan because it would look WAY too suspicious if he took the date while other people like JC had an open date invitation already. Add in the Lea offer and FD making himself available, and there was 0 chance that Kirby went for Peaf in that scenario, dooming him.

Right. If peaf's intention was to swoop in and save an ally the only option is Kirby because that's the only person he even TRIED to date after confirming his mutual breakup with Dumey.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/f8135a1b.png

So the only possible results from his play are
-Save Scummate Kirby, both scum live!
-Save Town Kirby, gain town cred? (JC or Dumey probably dies instead since Lea would pair with one of them instead of Lopen who I made available)
-Die trying to save Scummate Kirby, but it's worth it because Kirby's role is better than his vanilla cop?

But yeah you basically described the internal process I had during my date with Kirby. The fact that Peaf did what he did had to mean something even if it doesn't look sensical in retrospect. Kirby was also pretty quick to say that he wondered if Peaf was "acting completely on his own without consulting his teammates" which is honestly something a scummate might say after watching their ally lemming themselves off a cliff without any heads up that it was coming.

But the fact that Kirby was in the process of drafting a vote to accept Lea (rather than Peaf) is the best thing I can say about him. But then THAT is what got me considering a Peaf + Kirby + Lea scum team. In that scenario Lea kicking off the breakup frenzy makes sense because people were coming around on Kirby after his vanilla claim and she was well positioned to prevent his death. So they are executing Kirby Rescue Plan A when all of the suddenly Peaf initiated his own Plan B thinking that HE could pair with Kirby and simultaneously shed the suspicion he was building for his "early pair status" and Lea would have ample opportunity to pair with someone else. But it was an unexpected and risky move so neither scummate was willing to pair with Peaf and Lea/Kirby couldn't even pair with each other after I took Kirby off the market.

it's the kind of tinfoil theory that should not be the basis of today's "lynch", but I'll have to consider if working through the more obvious POE doesn't yield any results.

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EDumey
02/29/24 9:41:07 AM
#268:


If that's true, then that would be very funny FD.

One more quick scenario that just popped into my head reading that. Lea/Peaf scum team but Kirby town.

Lea put herself in a situation where she told JC to go save Kirby, and didn't have a way out. If nothing changes, Lea dies. But Kirby wasn't accepting JC's invitation for one reason or another. Lea pleaded with me to shake things up and release Peaf, which I accepted. Peaf takes the opportunity to switch to Kirby, which gives Lea a way out. Both scum safe. Kirby's cautiousness at not accepting the first or even second lifevest thrown to them wins out the day.

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Lopen
02/29/24 9:42:45 AM
#269:


Don't love the Lea post there. I don't think "turning" is exactly what I was doing.

Also think it's interesting that Chris supported my line of attack on Isquen which wasn't really great but violently battled my line of attack on Peaf at every step.

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SirChris
02/29/24 9:43:48 AM
#270:


Probably because he's on my poe too and it doesn't involve generally unreliable tells (unless you're right then it's a great job)

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SirChris
02/29/24 9:44:11 AM
#271:


Also fought you every step of the way is a little strong. I left peaf in null and then vanished

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Forceful_Dragon
02/29/24 9:48:17 AM
#272:


EDumey posted...
That would leave FD, Red, Corrik, MZero, Sultan.

Why am I being left in the Pit exactly? Swap me with Chris imo so at least the final 5 are from the 7 man POE.

We also need to consider today that because there is an Even number of scum remaining that scum has the option to make a scum lynch impossible today, unless there was a scum/scum pairing yesterday.

Personally I'd rather form 3 pairs out of Lea, Lopen, JC, FD, Dumey, Kirby and leave the other 7 to figure it out. If both scum are in the other 7 then they will have to find a reason to pair each other if they want absolute safety today.

Which is yet another reason to hate Ulti's non-game reasoning for committing to an isquen date.

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Lopen
02/29/24 9:49:39 AM
#273:


EDumey posted...
Lopen and Lea, if neither of you are comfortable throwing me in the townie list, who out of Chris, FD, Red, Corrik, MZero, Sultan would you want to take out of the fight?

I'd sooner date you than Red at the moment. I think Sultan feels town. I think Corrik actually feels town. I think FD is probably town. Chris I'm on the fence and probably town but literally everyone in the game having some suspicion of him and multiple people willing to just say "well yeah he was bodyguarded" rather than reaching the better conclusion of "Death was killed" has me nervous.

The dumb answer here is that Ulti and Red are just the scumteam being blatant with a smart cop with awestruck rookie gimmick thing going on and I could see it.

So I'd date anyone but Red on that list.

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Lopen
02/29/24 9:53:01 AM
#274:


Ultimately I think that my logic of "Death Corrik and Isquen are town because scum doesn't play passively enough when finding dates to be left there" is pretty solid. And Peaf was battling that too, note.

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Kirby321
02/29/24 10:02:22 AM
#275:


Lopen posted...
Chris I'm on the fence and probably town but literally everyone in the game having some suspicion of him and multiple people willing to just say "well yeah he was bodyguarded" rather than reaching the better conclusion of "Death was killed" has me nervous.

Hang on, I don't think those need to be mutually exclusive (that's not the proper term here but words are hard).

If Death was killed, that doesn't necessarily implicate or exonerate Chris. Where's the equity in scum Chris killing Death, assuming Death didn't claim his role to Chris (because why would he)? I don't think Death being the NK target is alignment indicative to Chris. People are saying Chris is likely town because it's statistically likelier. Death bodyguarded Chris? Chris is 99% town, with the 1% being that scum decided to snipe their own teammate when they were already down a player for whatever reason. Death was the NK target? Chris is 50/50 on town/scum.

I think most people are taking the "we have bigger and scummier fish to fry" stance when it comes to Chris. Personally, I'm against FD having to fight for his life because I'm very confident he is town. Would much rather put Chris in the ring

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#276
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EDumey
02/29/24 10:03:44 AM
#277:


Forceful_Dragon posted...
Why am I being left in the Pit exactly? Swap me with Chris imo so at least the final 5 are from the 7 man POE.

We also need to consider today that because there is an Even number of scum remaining that scum has the option to make a scum lynch impossible today, unless there was a scum/scum pairing yesterday.

Personally I'd rather form 3 pairs out of Lea, Lopen, JC, FD, Dumey, Kirby and leave the other 7 to figure it out. If both scum are in the other 7 then they will have to find a reason to pair each other if they want absolute safety today.

Which is yet another reason to hate Ulti's non-game reasoning for committing to an isquen date.

My real answer is honestly that I'm more okay with Red today after hearing what he contributed toward the night chat, and would probably be fine with you just keeping your date with Red.

I will say FD, while I don't want you lynched just because you're active and helping, I don't have any reason currently to remove you from my PoE. I don't think your end of day play releasing Lopen gives you any real town cred. (Just to be clear, I don't think me releasing Peaf gives me any town cred either, so I'm not trying to put you down here.) So you're there because you're there. :)

I do agree that we are unlikely if not impossible to hit scum today. Even if I said there was a GUARANTEE that one of the people in that lineup I gave was scum, it's still probably super hard to hit today. But unless we can build a strong case on Lea or something, I think it's our best strategy to isolate the PoE and at worst, thin the crowd. (It should also be fairly obvious that my selfish desire is that Sultan is the one left out in the end. But I can't force that.)

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Kirby321
02/29/24 10:05:37 AM
#278:


UltimaterializerX posted...
MZero is a backup plan. My intentions today couldnt be more obvious.

Your intentions to coast by with only regard to your own safety rather than helping town?

You do realize that, if you're town, pairing yourself up super early will only make people want to lynch you even harder as the number of players gradually goes down and your options for people willing to date you also decreases... right? Mafia is oftentimes a game of logic, but we're also human. I recommend cooperating with us rather than getting yourself killed again and blaming everyone else for being frustrated with you.

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EDumey
02/29/24 10:06:21 AM
#279:


Lopen posted...
I'd sooner date you than Red at the moment. I think Sultan feels town. I think Corrik actually feels town. I think FD is probably town. Chris I'm on the fence and probably town but literally everyone in the game having some suspicion of him and multiple people willing to just say "well yeah he was bodyguarded" rather than reaching the better conclusion of "Death was killed" has me nervous.

The dumb answer here is that Ulti and Red are just the scumteam being blatant with a smart cop with awestruck rookie gimmick thing going on and I could see it.

So I'd date anyone but Red on that list.

MZero is the one you didn't mention here. I think I'm the only one seriously concerned about the logistics issue that is MZero in this format. Do we give him a pass to D3 just because it's hard to push for him before the end of the day with this many people still alive?

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Corrik7
02/29/24 10:09:37 AM
#280:


Sidenote. If Chris knew death was bodyguard cuz death explained his role, scum could have shot scum Chris to cover their tracks as well.

Not saying it's likely but just throwing out what is possible if death spilled the beans.

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Forceful_Dragon
02/29/24 10:11:04 AM
#281:


Alternatively we take a pair from day 1 like Sultan and MZero and put them into the final 3 with a sacrificial lamb who refuses to pair either of them and take two shots today instead of 1 =P

I don't actually think targeting a 3-lynch day is a good idea, for the record. The chance to accelerate our clock is never going to be worth that risk, but I think it would be pretty funny.

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#282
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#283
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TheSultanOfSlam
02/29/24 10:14:05 AM
#284:




EDumey posted...
That would leave FD, Red, Corrik, MZero, Sultan.

This list kinda sucks.

Mzeros town, I'm town, corrik meh, red is fine? FD is probably also fine.

I'd prefer it to look something like

Corrik Isquen Ulti and maybe Chris?

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Forceful_Dragon
02/29/24 10:14:28 AM
#285:


UltimaterializerX posted...
You actually took my idea for tomorrow.

I am 100% ok with being the lamb in that spot, just not today.

Yeah if we did it tomorrow it'd be You + Isquen and someone else would be the sacrificial lamb

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Kirby321
02/29/24 10:17:12 AM
#286:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
This list kinda sucks.

Mzeros town, I'm town, corrik meh, red is fine? FD is probably also fine.

I'd prefer it to look something like

Corrik Isquen Ulti and maybe Chris?

Sultan didn't say he was town.

Get him! /s

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Corrik7
02/29/24 10:17:13 AM
#287:


Can everyone stop saying my name? Thank you.

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Lopen
02/29/24 10:17:21 AM
#288:


Kirby321 posted...
I don't think Death being the NK target is alignment indicative to Chris

I don't think so either that's not my point

I'm saying the analysis surrounding Death and Chris doesn't feel organic and people are eager to jump to conclusions one way or another

It feels like this shouldn't weigh a lot if you were already suspecting Chris, and the 99% if Death was shot is a nonsense statistic that is likely irrelevant because what scum team shoots Chris here

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EDumey
02/29/24 10:18:19 AM
#289:


corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik corrik

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SirChris
02/29/24 10:18:37 AM
#290:


I'm pretty sure they just shot death directly yeah. That's what makes the most sense lol

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TheSultanOfSlam
02/29/24 10:18:40 AM
#291:


Dumey is pushing super hard at me today and I honestly don't even know why. Seems like alot of OMGUS and WIFOM. But I could be wrong

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TheSultanOfSlam
02/29/24 10:19:58 AM
#292:


Kirby321 posted...
Sultan didn't say he was town.

Get him! /s

I'm town litterally said I'm town right their in the pretty little post you qouted
TheSultanOfSlam posted...
This list kinda sucks.

Mzeros town, I'm town, corrik meh, red is fine? FD is probably also fine.

I'd prefer it to look something like

Corrik Isquen Ulti and maybe Chris?


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EDumey
02/29/24 10:20:10 AM
#293:


TheSultanOfSlam posted...
Dumey is pushing super hard at me today and I honestly don't even know why. Seems like alot of OMGUS and WIFOM. But I could be wrong

I don't think either of those terms apply here, but I was vocally suspicious of you yesterday as well. A lot of the PoE list right now is just people who we haven't town cleared. My two actually negative reads are Sultan and Chris, so those are the ones I'm pushing.

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Lopen
02/29/24 10:20:31 AM
#294:


EDumey posted...
MZero is the one you didn't mention here

Mzero I'm leaning town but soft bus of Peaf is possible despite me thinking it clears him. He also said occulam's Razor and cleared Chris quick which I did not like.

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SirChris
02/29/24 10:20:44 AM
#295:


I will gladly date sultan. He is such a cutie

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TheSultanOfSlam
02/29/24 10:22:06 AM
#296:


SirChris posted...
I will gladly date sultan. He is such a cutie



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EDumey
02/29/24 10:22:21 AM
#297:


SirChris posted...
I will gladly date sultan. He is such a cutie

:thinking:

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TheSultanOfSlam
02/29/24 10:23:36 AM
#298:


Lol watch Chris is scum who kills who he dates that be such a crazy role. I'd risk it though

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Kirby321
02/29/24 10:24:16 AM
#299:


Lopen posted...
I don't think so either that's not my point

I'm saying the analysis surrounding Death and Chris doesn't feel organic and people are eager to jump to conclusions one way or another

It feels like this shouldn't weigh a lot if you were already suspecting Chris, and the 99% if Death was shot is a nonsense statistic that is likely irrelevant because what scum team shoots Chris here

I mean, I know we just came off a game where Ulti was scanned three or four different times as scum, but at this point in time, we have no reason to not just accept the simplest explanations. I just think it's disingenuous to paint this whole thing as inorganic and people jumping to conclusions. Have faith that people are gonna change their minds if more evidence pops up to implicate Chris.

It's like... what is there to analyze? Death is dead. Chris isn't. Death is bodyguard, so it's either him or Chris that was NK'd. There's not a whole lot of possibilities here, so it's no wonder most people ended up at the same conclusion.

I guess I'm just not understanding why you have a problem with everyone suspecting Chris last night and then thinking he's town now. Death's flip gave us new information. If that didn't happen, Chris would probably be under a lot more fire.

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Kirby321 is 60% epicsauce, 40% epic failure
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Lopen
02/29/24 10:24:32 AM
#300:


I honestly would like a better reason to actually lynch Sultan

Feels like it's mostly "these guys are town and Sultan is not" which is cop outty

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