Board 8 > Valentine's Day Mafia Topic 4: Deathly in Love

(+) Yeah! (+)

It can be three if it can be two. There is actually better reason to do it with 3 than 2 because you clear multiple scum if the narrative we are attempting to be fed is believed

You arbitrarily saying well two, sure, but three is based off of literally nothing.

*sent a date request to only me

Just to make it extra clear how absolutely absurd the play was from a logical vantage point

The play there I think is Lea pairs with Kirby and JC and Peaf pair off as "team spurned lovers"

Once Kurt Angle got added to the mix I think the chaos just undid plans and Peaf was busy so they couldn't redo them

Lopen posted...

It can be three if it can be two. There is actually better reason to do it with 3 than 2 because you clear multiple scum if the narrative we are attempting to be fed is believed

You arbitrarily saying well two, sure, but three is based off of literally nothing.

I don't even think it's two! I will respect the scenario enough to not HARD clear Lea, Kirby, and JC beyond all suspicion.

You know Peaf, Dumey

You tell me if he thinks that it's worth the risk to make all that stink at end of day if Kirby is just town and he's tied to town.

Because this is a far cry from "not casting a tiebreaker vote." This is an insane gambit that puts all risk for possibly no reward. You'd expect it out of me or Lea, not Peaf.

Okay so what's the course correction when FD pairs up with me, then? FD is scum and saves me, so Peaf is left to fend for himself despite clearly saying to everyone that he'd be gone?

Honestly, there's so many mental gymnastics you'd have to justify for saying anyone but me was scum in that last bit couple shuffling. It's far likelier that the remaining scum were playing it safe by not entering the fray and Peaf just went rogue.

There was a strong effort advocating for shunning Peaf and not Dumey

Kirby321 posted...

Honestly, there's so many mental gymnastics you'd have to justify for saying anyone but me was scum in that last bit couple shuffling

I agree that's why we execute you today

You wanna follow the hot hand, he has spoken

I mean, if you think I'm scum, that's 100% understandable. I said as much to FD last night when he opened our chat explaining that Peaf risking safety when I was otherwise cooked makes no sense unless I was scum.

What I don't understand is why you're so averse to considering anyone not involved in the kerfuffle as my scumbuddy. Furthermore, you're missing an important fragment of the puzzle: what was the plan to save Peaf if it was intentional that I'd rebuff him? If the plan was for me to pair up with Peaf, and that's why Peaf peaced out, why did I go rogue and endanger Peaf, knowing full well he wasn't going to be around during the final hours of the day?

I think if it's just you and Peaf as scum Peaf feels no compulsion to jump in because the writing on the wall was Kirby pairs with Lea and JC dies

Someone from Dumey Lea JC is as necessary to make the play make sense as you are

Having all scum participate in the clown fiesta that was yesterday just makes even less sense why nobody saved Peaf.

Peaf didn't want to be saved by anyone except for me, because I was the only one he sent a date to.

The point I'm trying to get across is that this is incredibly convoluted. If this were a planned scum gambit, Peaf wouldn't have died. And I find it extremely hard to believe that FD pairing with me was the wrench that caused Peaf to die because I could've just paired with Peaf from the get-go and ensured both of us would live.

In my eyes, the only reason Peaf died is because something went wrong for scum. And given that every critical failure point for any conceivable scum gambit all comes back to Peaf, I find it far likelier that Peaf made a reckless decision without thinking it through, and his scumbuddies wanted nothing to do with it.

I didn't say it was a gambit

I'm saying a busy scum player feels no compulsion to act if both paired with town and town is the one set to die

A busy scum player goes to work and lives to fight another day

If you want my guess it's that the play was to try to get me and FD to jump in first and isolate one of us that's why Peaf was woe is me about Kirby from the sidelines.

JCxLea breaking first messed with the calculations probably.

In any case the point is if Kirby is town and Dumey is town Peaf just afks. I can't imagine it not going down that way.

I'm really looking forward to reading the scum chat when this is all over to find out what the frick happened. Also vanity searching myself in like a 100 different chats.

Maybe it's Corrik and MZero and they just weren't around to stop Peaf from losing his head

Kirby x Lea x Peaf just feels right to me

Everything kinda lines up that way. Peaf playing to our sympathy, Lea playing towards our hype, both subtly manipulating the town towards helping Kirby out

My only problem with that is why doesn't JC just get left with Lea and Kirby and JC is murdered? This feels easy to just let be. Unless Kirby was thinking pairing with Lea would make him look strange when JC had an open invite out?

Unless Peaf hadn't actually realized that JC and Lea had broken up at that point? He did say he didn't realize JC was trying to date Kirby-- could he have missed that as well?

I dunno. Kirby and Lea on a scumteam profiles as just the type of crazy one that would do something like this too.

Also of interest

Lea followed my logic on "why would Peaf do this" perfectly and led me along the path of suspecting Dumey

Kirby was never proposed as a suspect which is weird because the more I explore this line this is the natural path

ALSO

Just for full disclosure

Lea randomly claimed miller to me for no real reason. She tried to kinda like, finesse it into the discussion as a "ha ha check it out I'm miller but didn't claim it in topic look how cool I am"

But man the more I'm going down this path the worse that looks...

Lopen posted...

ALSO

Just for full disclosure

Lea randomly claimed miller to me for no real reason. She tried to kinda like, finesse it into the discussion as a "ha ha check it out I'm miller but didn't claim it in topic look how cool I am"

But man the more I'm going down this path the worse that looks...

She claimed Miller on a date but not in topic omg kill this...

I didn't want to say it right off, because I was still thinking about possibilities at that point

Which is why Lea saying "OH NO MY PRECIOUS LOPEN HAS BETRAYED ME~" didn't feel right-- I intentionally withheld that until I was fully committed because I knew the topic would not like it. The fact that I had not revealed that should have been a sign I did still trust her and was just sorting stuff.

my thought is that there just probably wasn't scum other than peaf in the EoD scramble, or at the very least we shouldn't be wasting our energy there at the moment

lopen you're kinda bending your brain every which way to believe that there's more scum in there instead of looking at the players who just stayed comfortable and/or left

it's an availability bias because there's just more to work with from the people who were actually around and moving

I'm willing to move Lea firmly out of the town category and into the PoE.

But she already said she wanted to be in the chaos today anyways, so that's fine. :)

Lea, what do you have to say for yourself?

Chaeix posted...

it's an availability bias

No it's not

It's an extremely simple premise

If Peaf is tied with town, and town is on the chopping block, why does he not just go unavailable. That's literally my entire argument.

You can't answer that without saying TEH GAMBITZ HE WANTED TO CLEAR HIMSELF which makes no sense. It's a ton of risk by someone who shouldn't really want to put more effort than minimum into the game for an unclear gain

Kirby321 posted...

Lea, what do you have to say for yourself?

What, you think I'm scum trying to save scum you? I'm annoyed that Lopen can't take a joke and decided to strip me in topic, but I stand by actions.

Enchantress posted...

What, you think I'm scum trying to save scum you? I'm annoyed that Lopen can't take a joke and decided to strip me in topic, but I stand by actions.

So your Miller claim was a joke?

We had a whole ass conversation about trying to draw a kill as miller, so it's deeply disappointing to see that was discarded so easily just because I wasn't super proactive while in travel hell. Be careful who you share your purity with, no one will buy the cow if they can get the claim for free.

I don't even understand what the point of telling me you were miller was

I said exactly why I claimed Miller. Because it was funny that I would have been screwed as a big scan target up until the Praf special, and to eventually validate when I claim in topic. I thought we were having a chill fun time.

Enchantress posted...

What, you think I'm scum trying to save scum you? I'm annoyed that Lopen can't take a joke and decided to strip me in topic, but I stand by actions.

No, I was just mad curious why you claimed Miller and why Lopen decided to bring it up for no reason.

From my understanding, you claimed because you thought it'd be funny. Is that correct?

I hate the first post miller meta. It's been twelve years of boring, drab conversations about it. Lopen said in chat that he was expecting a Miller and not a godfather, but oh, now he's scandalized

Lea: Let's see...I broke up, JC broke up and dated Kirby, you broke up, Dumey broke up with a really weird line about how Peaf had no reason to break up but here's the command, Sultan adorably tries and fails to join in, peaf breaks up and tries to date Kirby, Dumey tries to date me, I try to date Kirby, FD breaks up and dates Kirby, we date, Kirby dates FD, Dumey tries to get me again before settling for JC

Lea: You want to know the hilarious secret joke of today?

Lopen: Sure! Secret jokes are the best jokes

Lopen: Ok so yeah FD breaking up suddenly did throw in the wrench

Lea: I'm miller, didn't claim it because fuck the miller role, was playing so lazily and crappily I was almost guaranteed to be scanned before getting Peaf vulnerable then lynched

Lopen: I'm miller too

Lea: Yeah - FD stole Kirby's heart, and that left me and you (hostile to Peaf), JC (my minion) and Dumey (they'd look prettttty silly getting back together after all that)

Lea: Hilarious if true

Lopen: Yeah. Not true unfortunately. Would be cool

This was the conversation. Total nonsequitur to mention it. Very early in the chat. 30 minutes in when we were still talking about the end of train lynch.

I didn't immediately suspect it at the time because to me a miller makes sense in the setup over gf for a scanner foil but yeah.

I never ever ever want to lynch Lea before Kirby though.

There's a reason first post miller meta exists though.

If there is a scum team without a godfather they might assume there is no miller as well. And if they give time for a real miller to step forward and no one does they can "safely" claim the role as their own.

But that's not the only reason. We know from Peaf's flip that his ability targeted the room itself and scanned BOTH players in a room, but provided an ambiguous result. If we have a traditional Guilty/Innocent cop isn't possible it behaves the same? So there wouldn't necessarily need to be any other scanner foils if the scan result itself were always ambiguous and might apply to one or both people in the room being scanned?

But the bottom line is that under no circumstances do I want Lea and Kirby to date each other tonight.

You can even include the Bodyguard flip that only protected the roomate. It feels clear that Chang has taken an effort to incorporate these night time room pairings into the game roles in a very mechanical way.

Dull. I wanted to try and draw a night kill. Now I'm just going to live forever and eventually be misshunned, which is also dull. People seem perfectly willing to believe that I'm some mad busser but never that I'm actually capable of lynching scum. It's never wow, it was really cool how you shook things up and got scum lynched D1 in this format where that should have been impossible Lea

I never called you a busser

FD did

Enchantress posted...

Dull. I wanted to try and draw a night kill. Now I'm just going to live forever and eventually be misshunned, which is also dull. People seem perfectly willing to believe that I'm some mad busser but never that I'm actually capable of lynching scum. It's never wow, it was really cool how you shook things up and got scum lynched D1 in this format where that should have been impossible Lea

One game we bus out Chris we are forever labeled mad bussers

If the scumteam is you Peaf and Kirby what you did was a heroic rescue mission gone awry more than a bus

I can forgive suspecting me. I can forgive showing everyone my Millers that were for your eyes only. But I can't forgive thinking I'd be so incompetent. I could have saved Peaf and Kirby if I had wanted to.

Lopen posted...

Lea: I'm miller, didn't claim it because fuck the miller role, was playing so lazily and crappily I was almost guaranteed to be scanned before getting Peaf vulnerable then lynched

Lopen: I'm miller too

Lopen nonchalantly saying "I'm Miller too" just cracks me up lmfao

Having the full context of the conversation, this seems reasonable. I'll believe Lea for now. Her actions yesterday with causing chaos and risking her own death lines up quite well with her role in mind. And yeah, fuck Miller as a role

Enchantress posted...

FD did

I would sooner believe that you're town because of how day ended. But I also have to believe that Peaf was not just completely insane. We might not fully understand what he intended until post game, and maybe not even then if it's something he didn't communicate ahead of time. So whatever it was he was trying to do, it was a thing that existed and he (perhaps unrealistically) believe it to be possible.

I would still sooner "lynch" one of the players who wasn't involved in the EoD at all yesterday, but I don't feel like I'm being unreasonable for considering that you would try something convoluted, especially if it seemed like losing a scum was already guaranteed to happen unless something changed.

I totally agree with focusing on the peeps that weren't in the EoD yesterday.

Aight so who's down to lynch Sultan?

Kirby321 posted...

I totally agree with focusing on the peeps that weren't in the EoD yesterday.

Aight so who's down to lynch Sultan?

I'm not opposed to a sultan lynch, but I think what will ultimately be more telling is if we take the entire group of non participants and see how they pair off with each other naturally rather than deciding in advance who needs to die (removing all pressure from the rest). I don't want 4-6 people who feel safe and 1 person marked for execution. I'd rather have 5-7 people who all feel marked for death and see how they save themselves and/or each other.

I think we lynch Kirby for the most solving material

If he flips town we can go through traditional methods because even if Lea or JC or Dumey were scum it was completely unnecessary at that point and so the Peaf insanity defense works.

If he's scum it's likely they were involved in a broad sweeping manipulation to try and save him

I really do think what happened was this

Peaf says "oh no poor Kirby" to get people wanting to save him
Lea says "if you wanna gamble you win some lose some it's all the same to me" to get people wanting to be crazy and of course she must show unpair to really drive this home

Those two in concert would encourage FD and Lopen to break up with the endgame being one of the two pairing with Kirby.

JC screwed up the plan by having the ace of spades

UltimaterializerX posted...

I will prevent Dumey or Justin dying personally if I have to. Look elsewhere.

I think it's Kirby Lea Peaf and would only want to explore those if Kirby flips scum and Lea flips town

UltimaterializerX posted...

I will prevent Dumey or Justin dying personally if I have to. Look elsewhere.

Isquen then =P

Here's my game flowchart

Lynch Kirby
If town
Clear Lea Dumey JC

If scum
Lynch Lea, Dumey, JC in that order

After either condition finishes you begin playing the game