Didn't he get a bunch of criminal charges attached to his person? Wouldn't those stop him running?
Honestly, even if he somehow loses, hell probably find some way to steal the election. Whether it be the Supreme Court, fucking with the electoral college, or violence, hes going to worm his way back into the White House.If he couldn't do it in 2020, when he still had the executive branch at his beck and call, what makes you think 2024 would be any different?
This thing really is Biden's to lose. A lot of ppl don't realize how much steam Trump lost last election.This is where I'm at.
Sure, Trump's got his base and they're as fanatical as ever... but he barely scraped out a win in 2016, he lost in 2020, and he's done nothing to expand his reach since that time. Like... what is he running on that would attract people not already in his cult? Immigrants "poisoning the blood of the nation"? That "Day 1 Dictator" nonsense? Pulling out of NATO? How are any of these supposed to be attractive to centrist voters on whom his election hinges?
what makes you think 2024 would be any different?Because they know what to do now.
choosing not to vote at all because people don't want to vote for Biden is half as effective for electing Trump as voting for Trump over Biden.This kind of thinking always bothers me, a non vote or 3rd party vote isn't the same as vote for *candidate you don't like*, I have been told a vote for 3rd parties is a vote for either candidate depending who I'm talking to.
This kind of thinking always bothers me, a non vote or 3rd party vote isn't the same as vote for *candidate you don't like*, I have been told a vote for 3rd parties is a vote for either candidate depending who I'm talking to.I would put it this way. Who are you most opposed to? A vote for a third party is most likely to benefit whoever you least want to win.
A vote for a third party candidate does not work in favor of Trump or Biden. Unless maybe you are in a state that could go either way.
Im not American so ive no real idea what he was like as president, but he seems like fun compared to biden, you never really hear anything about him compared to trump.My life really didn't change under him. I'm not everybody though. Gas prices went down but I've never been one to believe the president had some magical lever to control gas prices. They've been all over the place under Biden.
If Trump wins itll be by razor thin margins in states controlled by Republicans.
I would put it this way. Who are you most opposed to? A vote for a third party is most likely to benefit whoever you least want to win.
Let's say you're a Trump supporter. You like his policies, but maybe you don't like his rhetoric or you think he's going about things the wrong way, or the criminal charges bother you. So you say hey, I hate Biden, but I can't bring myself to voting for Trump, even though I agree with him on most things. So let me vote for a third party candidate whom I find more palatable than Trump, but doesn't have his baggage. This basically takes a vote away from the guy you kind of like, Trump, and gives a vote to someone who has zero chance of winning. Essentially reducing Trump's vote count by one. And thus making it more likely for Biden to be elected.
Let's say you prefer Biden over Trump, because Trump wants to end democracy and has fascistic tendencies that you just can't get on board with. You find some of Biden's policies okay, but you just don't like Biden. Maybe you are concerned about the Hunter Biden laptop stuff, or maybe you think his handling of Israel just makes voting for him a non-starter. Even though you think his policies are most certainly better than Trump's, or you're at least closer to him than Trump on policy. You decide to vote third party. Again, this essentially takes a vote away from Biden and increases the likelihood that Trump, the person you despise much more, is elected.
In our current system, voting for a third party is equivalent to taking away a vote from the person from the two main options who you are more closely aligned with, but aren't fully on board with, thus making the other person who you dislike even more, more likely to get elected.
Voting third-party works in favour of whichever candidate has the fewest third-party alternatives to split the vote. Philosophically, that's more likely to favour conservative/regressive candidates over a progressive one, by simple virtue of there being more ways to progress and try new things than to stay the same/revert to a past state. In practice, of course, it really depends how many candidates there are and which main ones they most closely align with, since that affects whose votes they split.You 2 are forgetting 1 very important thing. A vote for Trump in Illinois is a wasted vote, and a vote for Biden in Texas is a wasted vote, to an even bigger degree than a 3rd party. 3rd parties need to get to 5% of the total vote to be invited to next election's debates and shit, but the 2 big parties need to win the state to meet their goals, or at least get enough electoral votes in states that can split. I live in Illinois, my vote already doesn't matter because it'll go blue regardless of who I vote for, but I can help a 3rd party get to the debate stage next cycle.
In the US, the observed trend is that lower voter turnout favours the GOP, especially when looking at more politically educated demographics. Voting third-party is functionally comparable to not voting at all, and given that those voting third-party tend to be more politically educated (instead of just voting for whoever their parents/peers do like so many voters), it can be expected that a higher third-party turnout will favour the GOP.
Im not American so ive no real idea what he was like as president, but he seems like fun compared to biden, you never really hear anything about him compared to trump.That's the point. If the president is doing a good job then you don't hear anything about him.
This kind of thinking always bothers me, a non vote or 3rd party vote isn't the same as vote for *candidate you don't like*, I have been told a vote for 3rd parties is a vote for either candidate depending who I'm talking to.
A vote for a third party candidate does not work in favor of Trump or Biden. Unless maybe you are in a state that could go either way.
You 2 are forgetting 1 very important thing. A vote for Trump in Illinois is a wasted vote, and a vote for Biden in Texas is a wasted vote, to an even bigger degree than a 3rd party. 3rd parties need to get to 5% of the total vote to be invited to next election's debates and s***, but the 2 big parties need to win the state to meet their goals, or at least get enough electoral votes in states that can split. I live in Illinois, my vote already doesn't matter because it'll go blue regardless of who I vote for, but I can help a 3rd party get to the debate stage next cycle.
Theres a reason Texass criminal Attorney General is trying to disenfranchise as many people as possible. He brags about it.I mean, scummy though that is, it's really not going to affect the presidential election. Though starting to trend a lot more purple than in the past, Texas still isn't what anyone but the hopelessly overoptimistic would call a swing state. Regardless of Paxton's fuckery, Trump's not going to have any problems winning there.
Im not American so ive no real idea what he was like as president, but he seems like fun compared to biden, you never really hear anything about him compared to trump.That's a good thing.
That's a good thing.
Politics aren't supposed to be "fun" - they're supposed to be boring. Biden was the boring candidate in 2020, he'll be the boring candidate in 2024, and having seen what the alternative brought, I am 100% all-in on boring.
For the sake of the USA I hope so .o.0
Hes definitely gonna winSo says the Nikki Haley stan.
Dems gave it away by keeping biden
Bummer
I hope all the people refusing to vote for Biden because of his stance on Israel feel real proud of themselves when Trump sends our troops to fight for them.Why do you think that will happen
Texas has been pulling more and more high tech production towards them, that's where most of the jobs are for my field.
There's a nonzero chance that it flips with all of the moving.
Texas has been pulling more and more high tech production towards them, that's where most of the jobs are for my field.People have been saying this every election cycle since at least 2016, and not only has Texas never flipped, it's never even really come close.
There's a nonzero chance that it flips with all of the moving.
I'm not as worried as I was the last couple of elections, tbh. Incumbent presidents tend to get re-elected when the economy is strong and they're not wrapped up in any (real) enormous scandals.The only caveat here is the US seems to be moving into a new era of politics, and a lot of the old "conventional wisdom" no longer applies.
I seriously doubt it, but who knows maybe I'll be surprised. It kind of sickens me how everybody wants to treat this guy like a normal candidate running for president, after everything he has said and done. Even the remotest defense of Trump triggers me to anger. Someone in another topic did the whole "lol orange man bad" thing, but the truth is there is absolutely nothing to his character beyond just being a bad person.