Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the presidents Democratic coalition.
The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.
The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, Mr. Trumps criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.
The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or quelled the electorates discontent. Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, Israels war in Gaza and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the presidents standing. While Mr. Biden benefited from a burst of momentum in the wake of his State of the Union address in March, he continues to trail in the average of national and battleground state polls.
The findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr. Bidens ability to deliver major improvements to American life. A majority of voters still desire the return to normalcy promised by Mr. Biden in the last campaign, but voters in battleground states remain particularly anxious, unsettled and itching for change. Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the countrys political and economic systems need major changes or even to be torn down entirely.
Only a sliver of Mr. Bidens supporters just 13 percent believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.
The sense that Mr. Biden would do little to improve the nations fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The polls suggest that Mr. Trumps strength among young and nonwhite voters has at least temporarily upended the electoral map, with Mr. Trump surging to a significant lead in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada relatively diverse Sun Belt states where Black and Hispanic voters propelled Mr. Biden to signature victories in the 2020 election.
Mr. Biden nonetheless remains within striking distance. He has maintained most of his support among older and white voters, who are much less likely to demand fundamental changes to the system and far likelier to say that democracy is the most important issue for their vote. As a result, Mr. Biden is more competitive in the three relatively white Northern swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters and a significant drag on Mr. Bidens prospects. More than half of voters still believe that the economy is poor, down merely a single percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to rate hikes and significant stock market gains.
NYT fucking sucks and they're personally waging a war against Biden because he won't sit down for an interview with them precisely due to their shitty coverage of him, his son, and Trump.Think it came out today in Trump's trial that Maggie Haberman knew about the hush money case and decided to not publish it, to retain access to Trump and sell books.
I would throw away anything they shit out unless it's some breaking news that has nothing to do with Biden or Trump.
Think it came out today in Trump's trial that Maggie Haberman knew about the hush money case and decided to not publish it, to retain access to Trump and sell books.
You know, the type of integrity that's acceptable in the media now.
https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1790213426897465630
Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.
The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November.
Think it came out today in Trump's trial that Maggie Haberman knew about the hush money case and decided to not publish it, to retain access to Trump and sell books.That lady is noterious for sitting on stories until they're at their most profitable she's disgusting as a journalist and it always makes me sick when CNN and MSNBC have her on and just gush over this fucking grifter like she's deep throat or some shit, she's a profiteer and only interested in her own bank account and career. Honestly people like her are exactly why this country is just gonna get crappier and crappier, the only morals are whatever can get you power and money, Trump showing signs of dementia and psychosis, the media lets him have free town halls every single day spewing unchecked lies and hateful rhetoric, Biden takes a second to remember the day his son died, media circus, people demanding Biden drop out, progressive outlets like the Young Turks demanding his resignation, Congressional investigation.
You know, the type of integrity that's acceptable in the media now.
The Dems are being very smug to many of their voters. You have Hillary telling people to get over it and they are uneducated. Yeah that drives people to the polls .The democratic party is smug incarnate. If they lose then it's the voters' fault and democrats get to go "we told you so" when republicans do bad things, as if no one knew that republicans would do bad things. When democrats win, then it's "we must be doing something right, otherwise we wouldn't have won" as if people aren't just voting against republicans.
Jfc how?!?
Genocide is unpopular.
I've never understood this approach of just straight up dismissing polls and asserting that Biden is winning. Shouldn't we all be acting as if it's true and doing what we can to make Biden more popular/get out the vote/figure out what's going wrong?
People are gonna go full shocked Pikachu face if Trump does win by taking the EC as we ignored warnings until it was too late. I feel like this attitude didn't exist even in 2020 when Trump was the incumbent and Biden was leading in polls basically from day 1, sometimes with huge leads. As another poster said, this is coming across as the whole skewed polls thing that Republicans did the last several elections, asserting that polls are inaccurate and that there's a hidden majority on their side, with no evidence.
People aren't that stupid.
I've never understood this approach of just straight up dismissing polls and asserting that Biden is winning. Shouldn't we all be acting as if it's true and doing what we can to make Biden more popular/get out the vote/figure out what's going wrong?Ofcourse. Most people here dismiss polls whether they are favorable or not.
Think it came out today in Trump's trial that Maggie Haberman knew about the hush money case and decided to not publish it, to retain access to Trump and sell books.
Fat fuck ain't winning MI or PA. I'd actually put my house up for a bet on that. Anyone saying fat fuck will win those States are borderline morons.
Some Romney 2012 campaign energy to this:
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/14/biden-polls-denial-trump-2024-election
Maybe it's true that polls in 2024 just aren't as accurate a picture of the electorate as they used to be. But it's a hell of a gamble.
I've never understood this approach of just straight up dismissing polls and asserting that Biden is winning.
After the last 4 elections, I truly don't trust any poll. 538 is all but bankrupt for a reason, polling is pointless.
There were polls in 2020 that had Bernie beating Trump in Texas.
polls lmao
Bernie and Trump never faced each other so we have no idea what would've happened there.Yes we do, Bernie doesn't win Texas.
I've never understood this approach of just straight up dismissing polls and asserting that Biden is winning. Shouldn't we all be acting as if it's true and doing what we can to make Biden more popular/get out the vote/figure out what's going wrong?Polls are fucking shit, that's why. Polls are opt-in; the only young people who take them are loser chuds who wanna feel big.
when Trump was the incumbent and Biden was leading in polls basically from day 1, sometimes with huge leads.What reality do you live in? Polls were not saying Biden was going to crush it in 2020, and they predicted a red wave in 2022 that failed to materialize.
Polls were not saying Biden was going to crush it in 2020
and they predicted a red wave in 2022 that failed to materialize.
Heres a list of survey results of the 2022 midterm elections, all from the same pollster. As you read them, think about whether you think this pollsters results were good or bad or whatever adjective youd like. (D stands for a Democratic candidate, and R for a Republican one; the leads are in percentage points.)
Poll: D+6; result: D+2.4
Poll: R+4; result R+1.5
Poll: D+5, result D+4.9
Poll: R+5; result R+7.5
Poll: EVEN; result D+0.8
Poll: D+3, result D+1
All right, what did you think?
I hope you thought they were at least good, because this is a sample of about half of our final New York Times/Siena College polls in 2022. On average, the final Times/Siena polls differed from the actual results by 1.9 percentage points the most accurate our polls have ever been. Believe it or not, theyre the most accurate results by any pollster with at least 10 final survey results in the FiveThirtyEight database dating to 1998. We were already an A+ pollster by its measure, but now weve been deemed the best pollster in the country.
Yes we do, Bernie doesn't win Texas.Texas isnt a great example though. If a Democrat won there theyd just act like there was no election.