Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1382

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Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1382
_SecretSquirrel
08/10/2025
06:32 PM
#152
Going back to Magus, it is crazy how many coincidences led to this moment. It's easy to look back at the evidence indicating his 2003 overperformance against Link, but there was a lot of results backing his legitimacy, that seemed to be a lot more compelling than the arguments against it.

Tidus being in the same fourpack in 2003, and then having the close match the stats said he would have with Shadow in 2004, who just also happened to have an overperformance against Mario in 2003 that lined up almost perfectly. And unlike Magus where we have some decent ideas as to what happened between the picture advantage and some momentum from winning the Ganondorf showdown, we can only theorize why Shadow put on a performance against Mario that Sonic himself might struggle to replicate.

Ganondorf being stuck in the SFF match to end all SFF matches the next year, made any comparison the year prior meaningless. He did underperform a bit against Alucard, but that match ended up being seen as trivial, especially since he seemed to be the real deal in Villains, and even later on in this contest. In retrospect, he ended up boosting to match the popularity he seemed to have in 2003.

Magus also got stuck against SFF in 2004, and had a blow out against Luca Blight before his match with Crono. Luca ended up being another sign of the fraud with his performance in Villains, but like the Alucard match, it just wasn't as compelling evidence as watching Ganondorf give Sephiroth the match you would expect a near-elite to have with Sephiroth in the finals on the Villains contest.

You can even point to Frog also looking like a near-elite in his own right in 2004 validated his archrival, even though hindsight says that Snake match was the perfect storm for a massive overperformance between Frog enjoying momentum from surviving two of the best contest matches ever at that point, and a massive pic advantage.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Leonhart4
08/10/2025
06:39 PM
#153
Pretty much every match connected to him exposed Magus if you examined them thoroughly enough. I made a big post about it, explaining why Squall was going to beat him. People just chalked it up to fanboyism, but they should've listened...!
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
08/11/2025
03:23 AM
#154
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2089-devil-division-round-1-squall-leonhart-vs-geno

After a big upset, it's nice to have a breather match that you don't really have to pay attention to so you can keep talking about what just happened. That's essentially what we got here. Geno got a good early vote, as expected. Squall only had a doubling at the freeze, but he was above 70% twenty minutes in and above 75% a few hours in. Then it was pretty stable from there on out.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
TeamRocketElite
08/11/2025
07:56 AM
#155
Geno could just never get a good draw for an opponent.
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
_SecretSquirrel
08/11/2025
11:00 AM
#156
TeamRocketElite posted...
Geno could just never get a good draw for an opponent.
The problem with being a Nintendo-Square hybrid is that it means half the field can SFF him.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Leonhart4
08/11/2025
11:23 AM
#157
I do wonder how Geno would do post-SMRPG remake because it did release in Europe, right? That was always a big problem because the night vote would kill him with zero European presence.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
_SecretSquirrel
08/11/2025
12:57 PM
#158
If nothing else, we could finally get new Geno artwork on match pics.

That said, I'm sure SMRPG Remake in Europe might help the possessed murder puppet, but Geno won't really have the nostalgia with them that the rest of the 90s crew has. I would wager a Smash invitation would have probably done more for him than the remake.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
ctesjbuvf
08/11/2025
01:03 PM
#159
Fantastic match. Or rather fantastic result. Saying that as someone who loves Magus and isn't too much into Sonic.

Who was it that had Squall > Geno as the only correct match in this entire division
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
Leonhart4
08/11/2025
01:08 PM
#160
That was RPGuy96.

I miss that guy. He crafted the RPI formulas for my NCAA Characters/Games Contests.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
#161
Post #161 was unavailable or deleted.
Haste_2
08/11/2025
08:51 PM
#162
Leonhart4 posted...
I miss that guy. He crafted the RPI formulas for my NCAA Characters/Games Contests.

Ah, the NCAA character and games contests... those were the days. It was fun absorbing vast quantities of match data into my brain to rank the top 25 on a given week. I remember RPGuy especially for his faith in his Luigi > Zero pick, for some reason. Oh, yeah, and I remember he picked Ness > CJ... I think, though his bracket was full of big upsets (again, referring back to Squall > Geno as his only correct pick in the Devil Division).
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?"
"You drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Leonhart4
08/11/2025
09:04 PM
#163
Yeah, he was a big Luigi fanboy, so his faith was eventually rewarded.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
08/12/2025
12:04 AM
#164
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2090-chaos-division-round-1-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-jin-kazama

There was usually a topic during the nomination period that would keep track of everyone's nominations to see who had the most board support. I bring that up because Jin Kazama was the only character to get into SC2K5 without a single Board 8 nomination, which is honestly kinda impressive for someone we'd never seen before and haven't seen since.

This was another pretty boring match. Sonic did what was expected, and the trends were fairly stable.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
08/13/2025
12:05 AM
#165
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2091-chaos-division-round-1-kratos-auron-vs-diablo

Every now and then, there's a typo in one of the match options. I believe this was the contest with the infamous "Danta" typo, which appeared in his match against Terra, if I'm not mistaken. Those typos almost always get fixed, but this one did not (it should be Kratos "Aurion," not "Auron" in case you didn't know).

The match was over pretty quickly, but this was actually a pretty decent showing for Kratos, all things considered. He was probably stronger than Lloyd, but he never got the lucky draw that allowed him to win a match.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
KamikazePotato
08/13/2025
12:26 AM
#166
Kratos never looked that decent again. He definitely suffered from GameFAQs trending away from edgy/cool characters. It's also harder for RPG side characters to retain popularity when compared to the main character, especially if you aren't from something like a Final Fantasy game that everyone here has played.
It's Reyn Time.
_SecretSquirrel
08/13/2025
12:57 AM
#167
I mean, the other Auron is stronger than his protege main character lead, and there's a lot of similarities between FFX, particularly in the dynamic between the two characters and the first third of the game, so why wouldn't Kratos be stronger than Lloyd while ToS was fresh?
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
OrangeCrush980
08/13/2025
08:47 AM
#168
KamikazePotato posted...
Kratos never looked that decent again. He definitely suffered from GameFAQs trending away from edgy/cool characters. It's also harder for RPG side characters to retain popularity when compared to the main character, especially if you aren't from something like a Final Fantasy game that everyone here has played.
I feel like Tales fans also trended away from Kratos pretty heavily. He used to easily be a top 5 character in the series, whereas nowadays I'm not sure if he's even in the top 20 most popular characters.
"Foolishness, Dante. Foolishness... Might controls everything. And without strength, you cannot protect anything. Let alone yourself."
- Vergil, DMC3
pjbasis
08/13/2025
08:55 AM
#169
When I first played ToS I mostly used Kratos until he taught me that I should have just stuck with the MC
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
Leonhart4
08/13/2025
09:08 AM
#170
I could use most of the physical attack characters in Symphonia well (I've never been good with magic users in any game), but yeah, you can wreck things with Lloyd. It's why I rolled with Guy in Abyss instead of Luke.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Big_Bob
08/13/2025
05:49 PM
#171
I never got the appeal of non-physical characters in Tales games. Powerful summons take a while to charge, healers don't have to heal 100% of the time, and their standard attacks usually aren't very fun.

Plus, the combat systems are just... not that great. I generally dislike real-time combat with a party system (I'm not a huge fan of Ys or Star Ocean combat either). The FFVII Remake games did pretty well in that regard, though, since you can pause and adjust tactics on the fly.
azuarc beat me.
Leonhart4
08/13/2025
05:51 PM
#172
I like Tales combat for what it is. It's not super in-depth, but I never really get bored by it.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
TeamRocketElite
08/13/2025
06:21 PM
#173
Blah blah blah Tidal Wave!
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
Leonhart4
08/14/2025
02:47 AM
#174
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2092-chaos-division-round-1-tifa-lockheart-vs-vyse

As if Vincent's performance wasn't enough, Tifa only doing a few percent worse on Vyse than Cloud had done the year before only furthered the idea that maybe they were actually benefitting from Cloud and Sephiroth not being in the main bracket. We had come up with the Vyse Fodder Line after SC2K4 because he had been right around 20% on Link in 2003 and 2004. Naturally, he fell off a cliff right after that.

There were a few theories for why it happened. Some chalked it up to higher vote totals in SC2K5, but Vyse's match against DK in SC2K3 actually got more votes than his match against Tifa. Some thought he'd just overperformed against Cloud because of anti-votes, but that's just kinda baked into his natural strength (although Tifa has always been the weird exception to FFVII's "rise to heaven" trends, which suggests she doesn't get anti-voted the way the rest of them do. I wonder why...!). Some people argued that fodder just can't be trusted to perform consistently because they're fodder, and maybe there's some validity to that.

The most likely explanation to me is that the demographic shift that happened in 2005 just tanked his strength. Niche RPG characters were stronger in the early days of the contest (Aya Brea almost beat DK once upon a time, and she's been terrible the couple of times she's shown up since). Even someone like Ramza went from putting up a solid showing against Kirby to losing to Laharl and Hogger. These things happen.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
KamikazePotato
08/14/2025
02:56 AM
#175
Demographic shifts are a cruel mistress. They happen suddenly and can be very hard to predict. Although betting on Nintendo overperforming and JRPGs disappointing has usually been the safe bet since 2005.
It's Reyn Time.
TeamRocketElite
08/14/2025
05:14 AM
#176
Leonhart4 posted...
I wonder why...!


I can think of two reasons.
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
Leonhart4
08/15/2025
01:54 AM
#177
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2093-chaos-division-round-1-luigi-vs-kos-mos

Luigi had been one of the most disappointing characters in SC2K3, and he hadn't been much better in SC2K4. Most people accepted that he just wasn't that strong. There were even a few who thought he might be in danger against KOS-MOS, although not many actually pulled the trigger on the upset. Still, the Oracle average was only about 57% for Luigi.

It was quite the surprise to see Luigi surpass that mark by a full 9% here. This was probably the biggest evidence yet of the Nintendo Boost. Nobody thought he had a prayer against Tifa, of course, but maybe he wouldn't embarrass himself now.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
KamikazePotato
08/15/2025
02:16 AM
#178
I think Luigi may have benefited more from The Boost than any other character. He didn't just boost - he went past some of his Nintendo contemporaries who were also boosting. Going from 45-55 against Yoshi to 52-48 against Kirby is quite the hierarchy shift.
It's Reyn Time.
Leonhart4
08/15/2025
10:24 AM
#179
Yeah, Luigi seemed to move upward through the hierarchy, which is rare. You see characters fall down the ranks (see: Sephiroth and Vincent), but you don't see them improve their standing very often.

I wonder how Pikachu would've done in this contest.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
TeamRocketElite
08/15/2025
10:29 AM
#180
I guess Pikachu is the Nintendo character who shot up the hierarchy the most? Charizard, Mewtwo and other Pokemon probably also improved their standing but we never saw them when they were bad.
My bracket looked like random picks compared to his.
Congrats to azuarc for winning the GotD 2020 Guru Contest!
WarThaNemesis2
08/15/2025
10:34 AM
#181
Yeah the answer to all 'who shifted hierarchies within Nintendo the most' questions are Pikachu, and Pokemon in general. It went from Fox beating Pikachu almost 70-30 to Gary Oak basically beating Fox straight up.
Not a stinky alien. :(
Nintendo Switch Code: SW-5719-6555-8388
Leonhart4
08/15/2025
10:41 AM
#182
My first match ever was Fox doubling Pikachu

I miss those days
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
pjbasis
08/15/2025
10:50 AM
#183
Aw yeah poll for strong game Chrono Cross.

http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
AxemRedRanger
08/15/2025
05:03 PM
#184
Between 2004 and 2018, Donkey Kong boosted almost exactly as much as Vivi did. So there's that!
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
[NO Azuarc NO PEACE]
KamikazePotato
08/15/2025
05:22 PM
#185
AxemRedRanger posted...
Between 2004 and 2018, Donkey Kong boosted almost exactly as much as Vivi did. So there's that!
DK actually closed the gap by about 1.5% over those 14 years. At this rate, he'll win the rematch in 2060.
It's Reyn Time.
Leonhart4
08/15/2025
05:27 PM
#186
Unless the FFIX remake actually comes out someday...!
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
_SecretSquirrel
08/15/2025
07:24 PM
#187
Leonhart4 posted...
Yeah, Luigi seemed to move upward through the hierarchy, which is rare. You see characters fall down the ranks (see: Sephiroth and Vincent), but you don't see them improve their standing very often.

I wonder how Pikachu would've done in this contest.
Independent of the contests, it also feels like Nintendo has flat out done more with Luigi since the early days of contests. The contests started during the second consecutive generation of Luigi not being playable in the Mario platformers at all, and mostly being relegated to side projects like Luigi's Mansion. While things hadn't quite turned around yet for the 2005 contest, I do think Luigi being put back in the main games starting with Galaxy and then getting even more focus as time went on probably did help him improve his standing, just as votals were starting to explode in the back half of the 2000s.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Big_Bob
08/15/2025
09:26 PM
#188
Could Donkey Kong actually win that match since Bananza seems to be pretty well-loved?
azuarc beat me.
_SecretSquirrel
08/15/2025
11:19 PM
#189
I think Vivi is still a bit far away for DK, and we have to remember all of Nintendo was on Smash hype steroids in 2018, so it's not likely DK's gotten any stronger until Bonanza.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Leonhart4
08/16/2025
12:00 AM
#190
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2094-20xx-division-round-1-mega-man-vs-conker

In the first few contests, we had multiple 3D platforming characters each year. In SC2K5, we only had Conker, who probably only made it in because of his new game on Xbox, if I remember correctly. Next year, we wouldn't have any 3D platforming characters at all. Then they all seemingly had a resurgence in the past decade. I wonder how Conker would do now.

Anyway, Mega Man got off to a fast start as he usually did (he might have the best board vote of the Noble Nine, now that I think about it). He was over 80% for the first 25 minutes. The overnight vote wasn't too kind to him as usual, but it was pretty stable the rest of the way from there.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
08/17/2025
02:13 AM
#191
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2095-20xx-division-round-1-gordon-freeman-vs-leon-kennedy

Leon Kennedy was also one of the NRT winners, as he was fresh off of Resident Evil 4. He was expected to have an easy win over Gordon Freeman of GFNW fame, who had just gotten Half-Life 2 himself. There isn't much to say about this one as it basically went as expected. Gordon lost and still broke 40% in defeat as he always did. What makes this match notable is that this was the final year of GFNW.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
_SecretSquirrel
08/17/2025
03:35 AM
#192
I remember a lot of people thinking this was a terrible result for Leon at the time, which it would have been if Gordon had stayed constant. But Half-Life 2 had actually boosted him considerably, but it is kind of hilarious he just got a stronger opponent that year that was out of his striking range.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Leonhart4
08/17/2025
08:23 AM
#193
Yeah, Leon was considered a flop at the time because we thought of Gordon as fodder and couldn't conceive of him being anything else, even with a new game.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
pjbasis
08/17/2025
03:07 PM
#194
who was the strongest person Gordon could have beat and ruined brackets over
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
Yesmar_
08/17/2025
03:09 PM
#195
pjbasis posted...
who was the strongest person Gordon could have beat and ruined brackets over

Ocelot? Yuna?
Congrats on Advokaiser for winning the 2018 Guru Contest!
Yesmar
Leonhart4
08/17/2025
03:14 PM
#196
He was directly above Kefka in the X-Stats, so that seems like a good answer. As much as we mocked Kefka for his perceived lack of strength, I doubt anyone picks him to lose to Gordon.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
ctesjbuvf
08/17/2025
03:18 PM
#197
It would have been amusing for sure.
Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to azuarc , the winner of the Game of the Decade II guru contest.
_SecretSquirrel
08/17/2025
03:20 PM
#198
Gordon vs. Vercetti could have been really funny too, especially with CJ also bombing that year.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Leonhart4
08/18/2025
03:35 AM
#199
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2096-20xx-division-round-1-yoshi-vs-laharl

Not much to say about this one. Yoshi had a predetermined path this contest, where he was basically guaranteed to win two matches and then lose to Mega Man. He did as expected against Laharl, so next we would see how he would do against Ocelot...right?
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
Leonhart4
08/19/2025
12:04 AM
#200
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/4/465c568c.jpg

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2097-20xx-division-round-1-revolver-ocelot-vs-pac-man

Ocelot wasn't a unanimous favorite over Pac-Man (I believe a handful of people on the board picked the upset), but he was expected to win fairly easily, with the Oracle average being a little above 58% for him. However, the moment we saw that match picture, even the people who had been confident in Ocelot's chances (like me, one of the main people who had pushed for his inclusion) started to have doubts.

Those questions were validated right from the start as Pac-Man had a slight lead at the freeze. Ocelot took the lead back pretty quickly, but he couldn't get the margin above 250 votes. Right around the morning vote, Pac-Man took the lead and never looked back.

For the second contest in a row, the first round had ended on a big upset. However, unlike with Master Hand > Kuja, which had prompted angry reactions, most people were just happy for Pac-Man. Nobody seemed to mind getting this one wrong, perhaps because they knew it was only worth one point, unlike how many points most people lost with Knuckles > Magus.

Speaking of which, Pac-Man actually had a higher prediction percentage than Knuckles, although he did knock out the last remaining perfect brackets. The other characters from the Villains Contest seemed to get a noticeable bump in bracket support in this contest, but Ocelot was the exception, for whatever the reason.

Despite the embarrassing upset, Ocelot still managed to become a contest staple from here on out, only missing 2006 because of the male/female split. Probably the only contests where he came out a net positive were Villains and 2007, where he scored an upset on Jill Valentine (which he immediately returned the favor the following year despite the release of MGS4). Ocelot was often confusing but rarely was he not entertaining.
https://imgur.com/WqDcNNq
https://imgur.com/89Z5jrB
_SecretSquirrel
08/20/2025
01:20 AM
#201
I do wonder if we might have been more shocked if Pac/Ocelot came before Magus/Knux.
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, azuarc , winner of Game of the Decade!
Board 8 » Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1382
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