Lurker > changmas

yes

Roller coaster tycoon

I'm not gambitting anything, but the math is clear enough that there's a straightforward path to victory by lynching me, so I have no qualms with it.

##Unvote
##Vote: Ben

htaeD posted...

Changmas I was hoping for more from you.

i was hoping for more from me too tbh, if it's any consolation

ben sounds so scummy lol maybe we just kill him

Wallz I am in full agreement but I also totally understand the justification for letting me die today and lynching Dumey/Ben in some order with 5 and 3 alive.

Don't have time for a full reread myself but there's been something from Dumey I've looked oddly at today myself:

EDumey posted...

Thank you, appreciate that. lol.

The thing that makes me nervous is Wallz and him focusing on Ben.

I think there's a chance of it being Chang/Wallz, and scum's win condition is trying to get us to lynch Ben or Me instead of Chang/Wallz. Since Ben and I keep coming up as the alternative.

here he's running defense for Ben. To me this reads like he's putting the work in now to justifiably vote Wallz tomorrow instead of Ben.

I'm fairly certain this is the case. And most obviously, Ben caused the mislynch on MZero to save Dumey. I think Dumey goes first because he would be the one with potential kill ability trickery, since I roleblocked Ben last night.

##Vote: Dumey

foolm0r0n posted...

No, if there's 3 left and Ben is one of them, then there are 2 more scum who could hammer right now. Where are they?

If it's 2 left and Ben is one of them, then the last one could also hammer (unless it's me or IGCD), but it doesn't end the game so they need to be cautious.

It's pretty obvious at this point it's 2 remaining scum and they're playing very cautiously so as not to lose to something unexpected. No need for them to hammer out in the open since they have to find a mislynch tomorrow too.

supposedly the bulls had offers for caruso during the season that included first round draft picks and all they got was P Giddey / Josh Kiddey

htaeD posted...

Changmas needs to be clear about what he means with 'I was not succesful.'

I was not successful in stopping the night kill because I am poisoned.

foolm0r0n posted...

He dies at END of night. He will be able to perform his action, and you can journal him to read his action.

I die at the end of the day (and corrected that immediately). Mixed up the words while I was writing. Would have been convenient if I died at the end of the night.

__

I'm not sure why people like Dumey are talking like I might have blocked the kill (unless he knows too much!). To me it seems like the gun was the extra kill and the poison replaced the normal kill. While the gun could have backfired, it works through protection. I'm still operating under the assumption that there's a scum Jack of all kills type role that's designed to counter the town protection.

But frankly I've done the math and it makes complete sense to lynch me / no lynch tbh so I have no qualms with that plan. Unless there's somehow 3 remaining scum? But otherwise you're better off lynching me while it's 'free' and correctly lynching the last two with 5 alive and 3 alive.

as of now, assuming foolmo dies tonight I would advocate for lynching in order:
Dumey (most likely scum)
Ben
IGCD (can probably fit on any scum team)
Wallz
Death (most likely town)

If foolmo doesn't die tonight, I'd lynch him first then the same order for the rest.

If you think there's three scum remaining we should kill Ben today 100% of the time, he's effectively guaranteed scum in any of those scenarios.

If I have the time and energy to go back and read over stuff, I'll see if I can find anything to substantiate that set of beliefs. In truth though it's been a killer week for me and we'll see. Working from home tomorrow so should be around to answer any final questions and hopefully set y'all up with a path to win once you put me to rest.

he could be scum roleblocker though

wallmasterz posted...

So Chang

You jailkept Ben hoping he was scum, no one died, why mention Dumey, myself, IGCD and death in your post. If you feel that strongly Ben could have been scum I dont follow this train of thought

because I was poisoned and Ben couldnt have done it?

wallmasterz posted...

To be clear, did you jailkeep Ben in hopes he was under the radar scum, or that he was an under the radar nk victim?

Much moreso the former. Maybe like an 98/2 split. Expected myself or foolmo to be the target. Didnt want to roleblock foolmo and end up dying because of it, so i took my best shot at blocking the kill

Im going to sit back and think a little before going straight for Dumey. legacy (and possibly game) is on the line for this one, cant be too hasty

Die at the end of the day***

I JKd Ben last night, thinking that I might be able to block the kill. also heavily considered Wallz for the same reason. I presumed scum team would send the kill via someone under the radar and didnt want to take the 50/50 on foolmo/me.

And while I had the right idea, it was nevertheless unsuccessful. I was poisoned last night and die at the end of the night.

im assuming this means scum has a jack of all kills of some sort (gun to peaf, poison, something else?).

To me this is the missing piece that explains how foolmo and I coexist.

im still looking most heavily at Dumey but it could have been Wallz or IGCD or to a much lesser extent, Death (but I believe he is town).

Asteroids

*drumroll*

haven't you been arguing dumey is town?

guessing Ben wants to vote immediately after the tie is proven

##Vote: Dumey

ok whatever let's tie it back up

wallz why are you pivoting from wanting to kill Dumey yesterday

if we're doing the plan i'm fine with that. i kind of agree that I doubt Mzero is randomly bluffing that he can't double vote though

##Unvote

busy at work this afternoon, should be home like 30 mins before deadline at least but going to unvote now so yall can coordinate this MZero vote plan more easily

If thats not whats happening Ill cast a normal vote when Im back

Dumey

it probably has to be 3 scum total if Mzero is scum. 4 with a doublevoter is too much

but mzero is entirely correct that it just moves mylo/lylo up a day earlier than expected

hes not at the top of my list anyway but just for the sake of discussion here

foolm0r0n posted...

Ok, here's an actual inconsistency with Mzero

Secret doublevoter can't "come out swinging"

If it's D1 and there are 5 votes on someone, then Mzero votes then to bring them to 7, ending the day. Then that does NOT reveal Mzero at all. It just means there's a secret doublevoter among those 6 voters. Could be anyone.

Same in D2 except among 5 voters not 6.

This is a terrible reason to explicitly choose to play anti-town all game.

tbh i think secretly double voting/hammering people is a lot scummier than how he actually played it. It frames the person that placed the -1 vote super hard as the day should just end when that person puts a vote they think is -1 but is in fact the hammer. surely you can see some scum equity in that.

EDumey posted...

Brother there were zero posts last night, and I prefaced these questions with "I dont think we should stagnate" I'm asking pointed questions to try and get people to actively think and engage themselves with the game.

The point of what I'm getting at, is that I know I'm town from my perspective, and unless the scum team is EXACTLY MZero/Ben or MZero/Ben/Wallz, then one of the protection claims must be the other piece of the puzzle.

But if it does seem plausible that the scum team is there, then maybe we have a better odds shot shooting into MZero/Ben than we do taking the proposed 50/50 on Chang/Foolmo.

Aside from the fact that I still think its you, i do think those two configurations are possible. hell, at this point were close to a point where pretty much any configurations of 2 or 3 players could exist on the scum team. Its times like this we need to just focus on finding one scum and then building out the team from that point.

PunishedBen posted...

If you think that's what we should have done yesterday then why didn't you swing the vote to Dumey when you had a chance?

I did! then no one else was moving votes with any kind of punctuality, I had to leave and then afterwards everyone goes "oH wHy'D yOu uNvOtE i wAs jUsT aBoUt tO vOtE fOr hIm"

uhhdid anyone want SBell? I didnt even know that was an option on the table. RIP.

i have to admit i did crack up at Kirby getting modkilled as a spectator though lmao.

anyways from here lets just do what we should have done yesterday

##Vote:Dumey

come on, man. I remember you telling partial lies about town roles in the past to conceal information. Youre a better player than saying stuff like apparently if your role is bad or weird enough you should never claim it

wallmasterz posted...

Elaborate on this.

For you specifically - spending a lot of time pushing a crackpot theory like peaf is Joey and a traitor didnt sit right with me. It should have been clear to everyone that Peaf had to be town after how day 1 played out. I felt like that was either intended to be a diversion or an attempt to keep that as a mislynch. when that didnt work, maybe the gun went out?

i think there was something else i pointed out earlier today but i am forgetting off the top of my head

but also i just straight up dont believe the role exists. If it was your real role I feel like you would have fake claimed anything else, hell even vanilla. but maybe you cant claim vanilla because a scummate already claimed it? fact of the matter is, no one of either alignment should be claiming that role. best case scenario is that youre like the reverse of that role in some regard (town gets some kind of buff if you are nightkilled) and bluffing to try and draw the shot at yourself. If thats the case, you should claim your real role now

I thought he was lying and said as much, but I didnt feel like it was enough to lynch him. we literally just had town JK + doctor last game (though the size of the game was a little bigger) so I couldnt entirely rule it out. And I didnt think that was enough to get him lynched because they arent the exact same role.

if he really was doc though I felt like he still had to be the nightkill so I always protect him there. its still possible he was trying to deliver the kill himself but i think thats substantially less likely than being the target

Good catch from Isquen on that. I agree, i dont think there can be 3p with that wording.

i think if it were up to me, Im killing wallz or Dumey ultimately. Too often I find myself questioning their motives from the lines they are suggesting.

From everyone elses perspective I can understand wanting to shoot into double protection which did feel like too much to me yesterday. I just dont have a better answer than me blocking the kill last night. And every time we do the math its like we barely have any wiggle room to be wrong, so maybe it balances the game out that way.

EDumey posted...

Chang you weren't even the one I wanted to have shot. I'm just answering Peaf's questions about making implications about the missing roleblock, and I thought we were under more of a time crunch than we actually are.

Also I'm not advocating for me to be lynched just to test MZero. MZero is a byproduct. I just know that I am front and center on a lot of Town PoEs, and I think for people to not get distracted and start suspecting previously thought town clears like Ben or SBell, me flipping town might actually help people recontextualize the game. If we want to just shoot/lynch MZero instead for being sus about not posting much, when it was only his vote that was restricted, in a game where we know Sultan had a conditional power, then that's something we could do instead.

gotcha, i think I just saw you and Kirby say something to that effect back to back and jumped the gun.

I just dont think we have much space in the math to let people die just to recontextualize the game though

PeaceFrog posted...

Those are interesting ideas. If foolmo targeted me for the kill and rb'd not-you, then your jk would block both the kill and the rb. But if he targeted you then per the rules, rb takes priority over other blocking actions.

yeah, i guess technically i dont even know if my JK was successful other than foolmo claiming he was roleblocked. it seems super silly for scum to steal my results and roleblock me at the same time though

Oh and BEN is ahead of death on my list too. automatically suspicious of all vanillas in a role madness game

on my phone while eating lunch -

frankly i dont even know where to begin with this new theory about me. I have told you everything I know. My thought process for doubting foolmos claim yesterday because I felt like there might be too much protection should be clear. I claimed as soon I saw that I probably blocked the kill. Like for gods sake, what more do you want from me?

I dont have a better guess about the scum roleblock than anyone else. Doubled up on foolmo, went to MZero? Hell, maybe its like Sultans doubled up powers and they had to choose between giving Peaf the gun and roleblocking someone. Theres any number of possible theories here and its entirely conjecture!

Peaf, I implore you not to kill both of us. I am very concerned with Dumeys new plan to have you shoot me and then intentionally mislynch himself to prove MZero. I mean first off I dont know that anyones believing Dumey if he gets me killed here but in the event that they do, theres certainly no space in the math to start intentionally mislynching people, and Dumey ought to know that.



separately I would like to take back my 99.99% town clear on Death. if Peaf can also talk to dead people then letting people write last wills feels like it could be redundant. Im still far away from wanting to lynch Death (Dumey, wallz, IGCD would be my choices) but hes back in my possible PoE is all.

Deaths role makes complete sense to exist.

pairs very well with taunter as seen in prior games, and its also a way for town to get around the results stealing, because the will gets posted by the host for everyone to see. doesnt have any scum utility that I can see besides being a confirmable action.

like 99.9% town i think

Oh god if MZero is scum doublevoter the math gets really bad

foolm0r0n posted...

Is he in europe? Otherwise I would suspect he was silenced. That would be super dangerous. Instead of 3v7 it's 3v6 effectively, and if Mzero is actually mafia secret doublevoter (90% likely), it's 4v6 in terms of votes. If Peaf picks incorrectly, it becomes 4v4, scum wins.

hes European yeah

The other thing I noticed looking back at the Peaf gun thing is that I want to crunch the math on it. because its a double town kill if he shoots town but a vig shot if he shoots scum. So theres inherently a lot of risk to that. Theres theoretically a third possibility which is for peaf not to shoot anyone and to treat it as a poison. I definitely dont think we should opt into that scenario unless its absolutely necessary though.

on my phone so Id like someone to check over the numbers and make sure Im calculating this correctly

worst case scenario
10 players alive -> 8 players if peaf shoots wrong -> 7 after town mislynch -> 6 if foolmo and I lose a 50/50

if theres 3 scum remaining the game might be over at that point. Or i guess MZero double vote would be the only chance for us. Actually, they might not even have to shoot between foolmo and I if theres 3 scum left, they can shoot MZero too.

obviously thats the worst case scenario but thats scary how quickly it could be over.

but on the flip side if peaf shoots scum the numbers look very good for town, and it seems like its our only chance to have a vig shot. we just need to be really sure were hitting scum and not double suiciding town

PeaceFrog posted...

Chang, i didn't even ask you. Why the quick claim?

Foolmo, I'm really confused by you saying at eod you weren't doctor but now you're saying you are. Was it to wifom scum?

was already on my way out the door IRL but seeing there was no kill made me feel like I blocked it. So I didnt want everyone to write up a bunch of analysis from an incomplete picture when I was gonna be gone for the next several hours. And then have to do it again in the morning.

after mulling it over I think its significantly more likely that I blocked the kill by protecting foolmo than blocking him sending the kill.

so with that said i think Im looking at IGCD, wallz, and Dumey based on the claims. I have absolutely no clue why Wallz would claim that if its his actual role. And like, yeah, i remember that ctes fake claimed it in whatever game but that still doesnt make it a fun or interesting role for o put into a game. would lean toward wallz fake claiming that as a tribute to ctes before ever believing thats his real role.

Dumey claiming Vanilla as well - I kinda thought he was hinting at power yesterday with how much he kept talking about enabling scans and such so its a little bit of a red flag to me that he isnt claiming a scanning role of some kind. Maybe had to change fake claims after Corrik flipped cop?

and did I miss Ben claiming? I know Death is asleep. SBell Im still okay with for now, though Im not totally sure I understand what the gameplan was on taunting away claimed doctor. did he make any hints as to his night 2 target? What if he died?

about to head out to a little party but after last night I think I need to claim immediately. doubly so after seeing no one died.

I am Carol - TOWN Jailkeeper. She's Ross' ex-wife.

n1 JK Peaf
n2 JK foolmo, but I also had my results stolen. So that's real at least.

Right now I am assuming I blocked the kill one way or another last night.

To be more clear about what I said yesterday, I had my suspicions about foolmo because it feels like way too much protection to have in a game of this size, but we literally just had doctor + jailkeeper last game so maybe there was something I was missing about the setup. Still not totally sure.

not sure at all where I land yet with all this information but I have to go now, be back late tonight but will be ruminating on everything.

my time here is up. doesn't seem like there's much traction for dumey beyond me and wallz so yeah

##Unvote
##Vote: Corrik

wallmasterz posted...

Lopen went from having me nowhere in his poe to tunneling me after I dared to suggest peaf might not be town

Also that poe is outdated for me and Ive had posts indicate as much

in fairness, it was a bad suggestion

I'll join you Wallz

##Unvote
##Vote: Dumey

I have about twenty minutes here until the last round of the tournament starts, then will miss the rest of the day so if you are gonna claim now Dumey do it sooner than later

Today I don't have anything concrete enough that would override most people's natural aversion to lynching a claimed doctor.

I have my own reasons to believe it but to build a full case I would like to see one more night.

it absolutely should wait a day, actually.

death role fishing hard

wallmasterz posted...

Chang, why do you think its likely foolmo is lying? No one has countered his claim. Either youre doc / have other relevant info and know hes lying and should say as much so we can lynch scum, or you should feel confident foolmo is town because of the uncountered doc claim.

For reasons I elaborated last night (unlikely for there to be a town 'role thief', among others). And for another reason that I don't wish to reveal yet - need a bit more info to make sure I'm assessing game state correctly. Will probably touch on this tomorrow if I am alive (barring a scan having scum dead to rights) and you should be able to put it together with a little bit of work if I am dead.

though as I say that I see Wallz and I share 2/3 (or 4) scum reads so maybe it's not that opposite after all