Lurker > Corrik7

Should need 60% majority to investigate stuff.

Punnyz posted...

where you been

Working and spending time with my kid. I'll try and pop in one of these days.

kevwaffles posted...

I was making a really immature joke about you "going up and down on Biden."

I didn't get it. Sorry for ruining your joke.

kevwaffles posted...

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DeadPotableGnat-size_restricted.gif

?

Hollow Knight

masterplum posted...

Corrik would you vote Desantis over Biden?

I don't know necessarily how I would vote with these options before me. Biden I have gone up and down on.

Crescent-Moon posted...

Louisville's basketball team has started the season with 3 consecutive one point home losses to Bellarmine, Wright State, and App State.

FIRE EVERYONE

There is no one to fire. The threat of sanctions over them completely left them crippled.

GOP establishment was against Trump before 2016 also. It was always getting him to agree to not run as an independent if he lost and not til he won the primary that they fell in line.

LightningStrikes posted...

But why

Because I would rank him better than Clinton, Obama, Trump, and Biden so far.

Jr

Bush was the best president in my lifetime so far.

LeonhartFour posted...

uh oh my worst fears are being realized now that USC is the Pac-12's only hope of making the playoff and they're talking about how they can get in over Tennessee despite essentially being a worse version of the Vols

they're a team with a good offense and bad defense like us, except our offense and defense are better and our resume is way better since USC lost to the one ranked team it's played, but the media just wants the sexiness of USC in the playoff, where UGA would drub them like they drubbed Oregon

It's aight. UNC will get in and win both games by less than 3 points to win the ship.

_PandaMaster_ posted...

Pitt/Virginia began with Virginia throwing back-to-back Pick Sixes.

Huh.

If you wanna see something funny. Look at the win probability on ESPN.

Se7en and his edging.

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/shadowtodd/status/1591201258219921408?s=46&t=vfVWHyjUAsz_Fv77eNKMNw

Fucking WHAT

Microsoft Mixer chuckles.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

https://twitter.com/rafaelshimunov/status/1591133819918114816?s=19

Boy....

Should buy that dip hard.

Wake me up, when Nevada ends.

YoBlazer posted...

Trump going all-in against DeSantis - this is the best thing I've read all week.

https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1590842213004869632

Duke it out, shitheads.

There is zero chance that is real. Lol

And it is. Hahaha. He has no chance at winning. He knows this right?

Another thing. This was said best on resetera, but the polls did better than the expert skews. The Lite model from 538 was arguably on the money while the Deluxe model which took into account skews and bias was in the margin of error but further off than the polls only lite model.

It's weird because in 2016, everyone here was all about silver and 538 when I took more stock in RCP. Now cuz it did exactly the same formula as 2016 with different results formulating the basis, people are upset about 538 now lol.

Also, Nate Silver made this clear. If Trafalgar and Insideradvantage are wrong, that's okay. They are included, and the results will lower their ratings and make their polls worth less. He said, there were pollsters like Monmouth who had a ton of polls done who refused to make their polls public because they were concerned about their image if the polls were wrong. That at least these republican biased ones were confident enough to put out their polls, and if wrong, it would affect their aggregate next time.

masterplum posted...

I mean their consistency is why they were ranked highly.

They were nearly perfect if their had been a Republican bias there just wasnt one. That makes their polls extremely useful relatively.

Compare that to a pollster who was all over the place. Those polls would be trash garbage

They are ranked that way because the last elections, they had closer results. He can't change the results to change the ranking if a pollster. Trafalgar used to be like a c+ rated pollster or something before the results kept coming out higher for Republicans than polls indicated.

Thorn posted...

Also speaking of losers of the night: Trafalgar, RCP, and to a lesser extent - but still worth calling out - Silver/538.

Most of us here have been shit talking Trafalgar and rightfully so because they openly juice their polls on vibes and give absolutely nonsense results, coasting off their results in 2016 where their arbitrary boosting of Republicans lined up with Trump activating a bunch of nonvoters who the rest of the industry missed (and even then I think if you dig in the weeds it's more complicated when you evaluate Trafalgar's performance) but they and other partisan GOP polls were basically trying to will a narrative into existence with sus polls.

Which brings us to RCP. They've long, long, been operating with a partisan slant towards the GOP but they went super blatant with it this time. They were cherrypicking polls to include in their averages in a manner that was openly partisan. An outfit could release a poll that looked favorable to the GOP and they'd include it but then that same outfit would release a poll the next week showing a better result for the Dems and it mysteriously would not be counted. Bush league shit.

And then 538/Silver. Admittedly, they're not on the same tier as the above two but aside from shit like A-ranked Trafalgar, Silver was being called out by other election data people in the run-up to the election on how he was weighing partisan polls and polls that were uh... not very high quality - we're talking in one case case literally run by two high schoolers - like they were the same as the robust outfits like Marist and NYT/Siena and maintaining that if you just throw them all on the pile it'll work itself out - which tracks with the libertarian mindset of the market giving the best results.

I was watching all this transpire for months obviously, and it came up occasionally in discussions here, but I held back because it felt adjacent to "unskew the polls!" plus I'd been burned by being an optimist in 2016 and 2020 but the whole thing looked extremely sus the whole way down when you basically had two entirely separate realities depicted when you looked at just the established pollsters versus looking at Trafalgar and the GOP-funded polls - and RCP and the media were running with the Trafalgar worldline with glee - take that Politico article where they shit on their own poll that refuted their article premise of "Dems in disarray!!!111!"

sorry had to get all this off my chest

Pretty sure the results were in the margin of error and silvers model has the results easily within the 80% of expected range.

Silver said if PA ends up +4 as NYT predicts it would be in margin of error for +1 Oz polls, but it would be about a Hillary in Wisconsin result.

LightningStrikes posted...

On Resetera they have a group pledge to buy Sonic Frontiers if the Dems keep the House, because Sonic like the Democrats is blue and turned out better than expected. Its very funny.

That's why he said it.

banananor posted...

Can someone explain Nevada to me?

Is the idea that the remaining votes in LV and Reno are going blue?

There MAY be 100k uncounted mail in ballots in a large district to count. There are about 6000 rural votes outstanding in rural areas. And there is some votes in a democratic bastion outstanding.

The question is if the 100k ballot thing is true or not and if they skew blue. Because the district I believe isn't really a democratic bastion but relatively an even split one or something.

Apparently it's from the 1940s.

Inviso posted...

Corrik, at what point in history do you think the shift in "wokeness" happened? Because it sure SEEMS like the GOP really started to hate "wokeness" in the mid-to-late 1960s.

I don't know when "wokeness" started. The term I feel sort of came about with the matrix movies and redpilling where both sides have weirdly co-opted the term at times. But, I could be wrong there.

masterplum posted...

Theres an argument giving republicans enough rope to hang themselves would be good.

Need the senate to get judicial nominees through, but a small Republican majority in the house could be great for democrats. They could impeach Biden, they could force a government shutdown, they could take all the blame for democrats doing another 2 years of nothing due to sinema and Manchin

Sounds like someone who enjoys power over getting things accomplished.

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590378046036774912

Ashethan posted...

"We're a Christian Nation!" - Not Identity Politics

"LGBT People deserve rights." - Somehow Identity Politics

That's one way to extremely set a deck in an argument in which nothing of that sort was ever said.

Looks like Senate will come down to Nevada and Georgia runoff. Democrats still have a path to win the House also.

Jakyl25 posted...

Corrik, how do you define wokeness?

Caring about identity politics.

Ashethan posted...

Being against wokeness is identity politics itself.

It's a response to identity politics, yes.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

His victory speech had him saying his win is a victory against wokeness, so not off to a good start.

The middle doesn't like identity politics either.

The extremes are calling everything frauds or conspiracies and etc.

masterplum posted...

Yes, but that is the Romney strategy. Can Desantis court the middle and hold on to the formerly Apolitical Q followers after he subdues their leader?

I am doubtful

We don't want the extreme. They can vote or stay at home. Fuck them. They are what's destroying the party. Desantis sucks also. We need to get back to the Romneys and Bushs and etc. Going away from that is what cost us. Romney lost to an incumbent president who was popular. That doesn't mean move away from that strategy. That means dig in deeper.

masterplum posted...

Been browsing the conservative subreddit curious what their takes are.

They are really pissed at Trump and ready to anoint Desantis.

This could get really interesting, because what we havent yet seen are claims of voter fraud in primaries.

I feel like the scenario where trump loses to Desantis in the primary could crater Republican enthusiasm by Trump Republicans

I think this is a win-win. I think basically any democrat can beat trump in a general and I think any democrat is going to beat Desantis because half the Republican Party is going to stay home. It will be Obama-Romney all over again

I think DeSantis can court the middle instead of the extreme Trump did.

Trump is mode popular than DeSantis maybe, but does Trump have the numbers in a primary? Trump isn't beating DeSantis in Florida. I doubt in area like Arizona. Maybe not in PA. Trump will nab a lot of the Kentuckys, Wear Virginia's, Tennessee, Alabama, etc. But, DeSantis could reign Supreme where it counts.

red_sox_777 posted...

Trump might decide this means he won't win in 2024 and avoid running to avoid the humiliation of losing. We can hope at least.

He has no chance. I know a lot of people are looking to DeSantis. If Trump wins the nom, it's an auto L.

Jakyl25 posted...

Look out for what?

Biden has been given a reassurance to push through his policies then.

red_sox_777 posted...

R's really need to scrape by here, even if it's by 1 seat in the House.

Glad to see the Trump wing of the party getting repudiated though.

Trumps influence needs to be completely eradicated. Where are the normal Republicans to lead the party forward? You have winning policies. Just need more broad appeal and to be less extreme.

If dems keep both chambers of congress, look out.

guffguy89 posted...

Is my memory failing me, or does it feel like elections 10-20 years ago were tabulated much quicker than they were today? I don't know, but I remember as a kid and teenager that by 11 pm, maybe midnight, about 99% of elections were called and listed as 95-99% counted. Once again, this may be faulty memory on my part, but I thought that's how I recalled it being. Looking at this election and others like it, here we are this late and night and there is a plethora of contests not called yet. Plenty of votes still not tabulated. Has the counting process gotten worse over the years?

I think they had better polling to call them earlier. California has always taken notoriously long to tabulate their results for the House. The one I remember going real long was the Bush gore one though ofc.

Fettermans victory speech.

Hahaha

Yea
Hehe

Yeah

Haha

Yeah

Ha

Yeah

Yeah

Ha

They did it. They called it for Fetterman.

Wonder if they will have the balls to call it for Fetterman soon.

538 has looked pretty good so far with these results.

masterplum posted...

If memory serves me right it usually is 3 waves

Mail in vote Big dem
Quick count Rurals Big Repub
Slow count Urban Small Dem (Big Dumps)

No. It's mail in vote allowed to be counted early. Election day vote. Then mail in vote allowed to be counted only after polls close. That said, they just said in PA they aren't counting election day ballots first despite not being able to count early vote until after polls closed but simultaneously. So don't expect the long blue tail in PA like 2020.

I think people are discounting outstanding votes in dem bastions as not realizing those margins are likely skewed more repub cuz a lot of dems in those bastions already early voted. Expect margins to narrow in those areas as election day votes come in.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Holy fucking shit.

That's so bad I'm shocked it isn't an error.

Why? Repubs refuse to early vote. Every year Philadelphia alone is like 89-11% for the dem also.

masterplum posted...

Very serious. Inflation is a global issue. People who are blaming people within their country are pretty dumb

Even if you took the most US blame approach inflation was caused by mid pandemic spending which Republicans also liked at the time

The #1 issue doesn't have to be based on something that only affects America.

SirChris posted...

The # 1 issue being inflation is a sad testament to how fucking stupid people are.

Not sure if serious