Lurker > Lopen

I don't need to spin your iso. I just legitimately don't know what your conclusion is. BCT doesn't look great here is being used to generate fake content seems to be implying BCT is town? Is BCT scum or not? And if so who is the other scum? Me?

(Tl;dr
Poppy was very protective of BCT early, and used interactions fed by Kirby to push this narrative that BCT is emotional and that his scum tells are not alignment indicative.

Poppy had a great chance to push for a Kirby lynch end of d1 by using Chang and Lopen's existing suspicions and Chang tried harder to get Kirby lynched than Poppy, who jumped to sbell out of nowhere instead.

Kirby has had his vote on Ben for most of the game, yet built very little case on him and frequently leapt off at the first opportunity.

Kirby has been murmuring about Abacus as Godfather for the whole game.)

Kirby can you tl;dr the results of your dive thus far? Have you come to any conclusions other than "Lopen is generalizing?" Because I can tl;dr new findings I had very easily.

I wasn't subtly casting doubt on hb I was blatantly doing so. I'm not denying that. I was wrong but I wasn't beating around the bush about it. I do believe you were doing what I claimed and Chang said as much in response to it. In fact you gave Chang the same response you did to me, but this was a dive on Poppy so I didn't see that-- but your response then was damage control imo vs someone calling you out on it, as it is now when you repeat it.

I also don't concede any point you've made in that post. No typos were made in this akin to the Sultan thing. I did speak generally about things but condensing thoughts is important to make it readable (your quote block spam obfuscates the point you're making-- I believe this is a tactic btw).

Regardless this is my dive, not an attempt to summarize exact quotes like you're doing-- that to me is a way to fake content in the absence of insight. Yes I will report the evidence I see but the conclusion is my own on things with respect to what you said and I cite the locations so people can fact check me and find possible misinterpretations.

I had to double check that I did say that. That's a typo that should be obvious imo

Calling someone scummy for more "depth of thought" is strange to say the least.

NFUN posted...

I thought it was sophisticated and elegant

That's Lopen

I did actually summarize your return post but yeah I just misquoted your initial thought. I still thought it was a strange thing to say. But now rereading I realize I slightly misread what you said. I thought you'd said "I feel like there is something worth discussing in that discussion but I can't think of anything right now" but you said "but I can't think right now" which has totally different implications.

Are you implying I'm talking about doing something with wheat?

Although I will say

While you have that dignity, many people on b8 don't. I actually relate to being irritated by that as I don't lie about "real stuff" in a mafia game either but there's a reason "oh is red at Disneyland again" is a thing here.

So while I apologize and won't do that again in future games, I'm just telling you that it comes not from a place of being an ass but just... what scumteams tend to do around here. lol

Kirby321 posted...

I explained this to you when you asked.

No you actually didn't with that amount of detail.

That's a plausible excuse and I believe it. The time of year is right.

(You're still scum though)

I mean I was working too. I was at a customer site.

Feels weird it's so busy you can't check your phone for 2 minutes and slap a vote down at end of day if you were just active 2 hours before. To me it's like, office hours usually aren't so polar like that within the work day unless you're working very weird hours or a different time zone.

South
Possible
Sailor
Bebop

Bedazzled

Side note another thing in the rules dump I didn't read

The trap and card selections explicitly change with the game state (and provide full refunds in that instance) so I'm not sure our watcher spam is going to really matter in the end. It might come off the market with only 2 scum left.

My official feeling is I don't care if crossouts exist and will probably be selling my pots back if anything interesting pops up for 450g

Chang can verify Kirby's crossout if we really want to (even if it goes off, I still think Kirby is scum, so I don't care) and I feel no need to verify Chang's, personally. Hell if Chang really wants to if Peaf doesn't have a trap to dig up he can pot of greed himself after placing crossout and cancel it with his second pot of greed.

I dunno I think I'd still like to activate it even if you can replace it

Like just to verify your story for people. I mean I dunno I believe it but like, it's hard to know if people are just okay with Poppy -> BCT -> Kirby and then I don't know how the game goes. Maybe I get lynched but like maybe I get night killed and Kirby tries his luck convincing someone you're scum? I don't know.

I highly doubt me getting 100 more gems does anything for this game in any case. Especially since I can get 50 back if we don't care about me confirming that crossouts exist.

I looked at the rules dump and it's not clear but

4. Gems can be spent during the night at the Card shop as a free action. They cannot be bought during the day. The card will stay in your inventory until used. You can at any point convert your card back into Gems, but you will only get half of what you paid back.

... wow.

Rules, man.

I guess I can sell these pots of greed back. Mind blowing that I didn't know this lol.

Yeah that's true.

You were less verbose but it's clear you did from your takes, which oddly have more insight than Kirby's wall despite being 1/10 the amount of text.

Side note I think the real smoking gun with this dive is Kirby. Like BCT doesn't look good from all that theatre early but like the really big thing is going back really let me grasp how that day 1 train panned out

You have Poppy saying Kirby is scum and a contested lynch
You have Chang saying "I'd like to lynch Kirby"
You have Lopen there frustrated he couldn't lynch Han-- but he'd been on Kirby before that.

If Poppy really pushes for Kirby's head there no doubt he can draw both me and Chang to him and suddenly that's the competing train not Sbell. Instead he pivots to SBell based on basically nothing.

Alright. My dive is done. It looks like I'm the only one who did the reading. Whatever. I'm saving you some work. You can all give thoughts on what I shared-- it's all accurate from ctrl+f on Poppy through every post. I did skip interactions with Poppy and a bunch of dead town because it's not interesting to me and unlike Kirby I'm not just hitting you with a wall of quote blocks with no insight to fake content.

Topic 5
Page 1
BCT says Ben might be town and we got hosed HARD. Suggest Hb could be playing us with team Lopen Sultan and Poppy.

Kirby instantly votes Ben despite this being lylo. Not Poppy related but I still hate this.

Poppy calmly asks why the cop is still alive and has a result when the doctor was killed. Lopen responds because he's not the cop while continuing to rant and rave about one mislynch.

Page 2
Peaf notes that Poppy has protected BCT a ton this game. Reaffirmation that I'm not making stuff up when I saw all the Poppy ties to BCT in topic 1.

Page 4
Peaf requires Poppy and Kirby claim before he does. Interesting. I feel like we could potentially figure out what exactly happened with bus driver uses if it mattered.

Page 5
Kirby "keeps forgetting Poppy is in the game geez this is really not a good look for him"

In post #234. Kirby puts Ben Lopen "probably Poppy" no clue on #4 as his scum team. Kirby notes "Godfather is perfectly valid for Abacus" AGAIN. Wow. Keep beating that horse Kirby. It doesn't make you scummy at all.

Page 6
Lopen has the audacity to claim Poppy's questioning of the cop claim was logical. (Lopen still believes this btw)

Lopen theorizes Poppy looks townish because scum may have bought Poppy was poisoned and trying to trick Lopen into voting Hb with 4 scum hammer actually works with 9 players remaining is a lot more viable than with 10.

In post #263. BCT denies whether Poppy being town has any correlation to the poison target. BCT suggests Ben Lopen Sultan Poppy as scum team. I know BCT doesn't have the audacity to list 3 scummates. This should basically clear me and Sultan for anyone with any doubts unless they think BCT is town.

BCT says Lopen is bussing Poppy for logic I don't entirely follow.

Oh. That's true. Stalemate risk exists either way doesn't it. Well whatever.

I just think you need to do it not so much to confirm yourself as much as to get rid of the trap.

changmas posted...

so we're all cool with locking this now?

Well I'd prefer BCT move back to you if he's gonna pop back in to call Sultan a hypocrite but locking me wouldn't get me upset at least.

Topic 4
Page 1
Kirby notes Poppy is "ominously absent" and hasn't received pressure.

Kirby (and I only notice this due to Poppy being mentioned in passing) notes that Hb is UNCOUNTERED and staunchly defends him as town due to that-- very strange to buy crossout if this is what you think.

Page 2
Lopen says Poppy is probably dead tomorrow due to poison from Corrik, notes him as a good POE removal but probably town

Kirby mentions Poppy MIA again

Page 3
Kirby votes Ben and "wonders what happened to Poppy"

Lopen insists Poppy was poisoned, disputes Peaf's theory about Corrik not using Poison (should have used Poison bro)

Kirby denies that the Sbell lynch was out of nowhere, uses this as an excuse to pivot off Ben (again) onto Lopen

Page 4
Chang notes Poppy as "probably town," agrees Poppy was probably poisoned.

Page 5
Poppy confirms he's not notified he's poisoned in response to Lopen's poison theory. Lopen says "good to know"

Page 6
BCT asks what "yeet" means. Poppy explains to BCT what "yeet" means. Great use of Poppy's scant time day 2. BCT chit chatting with Poppy here too about allergies and stuff. BCT doing a lot of chit chat with Poppy in general this game.

Page 7
Kirby says he's "okay with leaving Poppy alone we have bigger fish to fry"

Lopen says Poppy feels like "remorseful town like Sultan but less believable than Sultan." Thinks Poppy is an outside shot of scum but doesn't think hard because he thinks Poppy dies from poison.

Lopen says his ideal lynch order is Hb Kirby Chang Ctes BCT Poppy. Lopen would lose the game with this lynch order. So sad!

DAY 2 - Topic 3
Page 6
Sultan has town read on Kirby Peaf and Poppy. Sultan insists I'm protecting BCT and I'm still not sure where he got this-- doubly so now having refreshed on these topics.

Page 7
Post 331. Kirby notes Poppy starting the train on as SBell as "fair enough." He also rationalizes BCT's vote as "voting anyone who says he's scum." Kirby is also trying to explicitly try to pair Ben and Ctes as scum here, implying that Ben is only scum if Ctes is. Seems like he's setting up a pivot off Ben. And he is subtly trying to set up hb as scummy, yet leaving him out of direct suspicion which chang calls him on. (Ben calls this post "tl;dr" lol.) This is a really bad look for Kirby too. The second worst behind Poppy not starting a train on him at end of D1.

Page 8
BCT asks where Poppy has been.

Kirby echoes this sentiment on Poppy later.

Page 9.
Han asks why Lopen has Poppy as a #3 town read. Lopen shortly after posts a new list (IIRC I didn't make this in response to Han's inquiry, but the timing was convenient), moves Poppy down, and admits to Han he doesn't even remember specifically why he thought Poppy was town and that's why he's moved down.

Ring generalship right there.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Took longer than exapected but I'll keep my vote here for now will move back to confirmed scum before end of day or when HB gives us the nod

What were you doing.

Obviously not

We do need to disarm Chang's trap.

I'll just do it. If I can't buy a shiny 500gp thing oh well.

##Vote: Chang

Have fun. No hard feelings. Sometimes I'm actually decent at this game and catch scum.

Yeah probably not worth your time to do an ISO on Poppy.

Switch to Chang and let him lock your vote. Then we can kill you.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Lopen cares a lot more today than I've ever seen him as scum, so I'm questioning my prior theory.

Lasted all of a few hours.

So you're voting me instead of the scanned scum two days in a row. This is noted.

But yeah honestly I'm convinced.

BCT is scum because Poppy was protecting him HARD
Kirby is scum because scum theatre with Poppy wrt BCT and he had every opening and desire to zerg rush Kirby end of day 1 and didn't.

I'll do day 2 later. I honestly think you're gonna get a lot less material as Poppy basically afked there

Satan GnG

foolm0r0n posted...

Oh right, I forgot about your reading comprehension

I didn't forget about your life comprehension that's why I spelt it out for you

Dude I will totally lynch the hell out of BCT today. That dive upped my conviction like 10x.

Topic 3
Page 1
Poppy jumps off Kirby, votes Sbell due to "BCT bleeding town all over the thread."

Chang still wants to lynch Kirby, and Poppy says "people don't seem interested." I hate this because Poppy absolutely could have drew me back to Kirby if he tried. I was on Kirby earlier. Poppy making NO effort to build a case on Kirby despite voting him most of the day is noted.

Lopen chooses to follow Red's vote on Ctes instead of Poppy's. This was an excellent turning point where Poppy could have really pushed for a zerg rush of Kirby if he wanted to.

Page 2
Poppy laments no one claiming.

BCT laments not knowing why he's in contention in response to Poppy's lament. Asks if people want him to claim from Sultan's "claim or die" threat.

BCT responds to Poppy saying this is stressful by saying how he's F5ing like crazy. Very stressed nervous town. Very stressed and nervous town doing nothing of value in the scramble, instead shooting the breeze about how he's stressed with Poppy.

BCT + Poppy basically got Sbell lynched here, all while having a back and forth about how stressed they are with no real movement or arguing to vote anyone. Yeah. BCT looks real bad here. REAL bad.

END OF DAY 1

Topic 2
Page 1
Poppy is amused Lopen mistook him for Kirby because of Poppy Bros.

Poppy "doesn't think Lopen is scum" for pointing out inactive MZero, but thinks Kirby is suspicious for tagging along. This is suspicious in all kinds of ways to me because when Hb was pushing the narrative that me and Ben were pointing out MZero's inactivity Poppy did not mention Kirby at all.

Poppy calls confident townread Lopen, Ben, Sultan (RULE OF 3 AGAIN, I'M TOWN, SO IS SULTAN.). Calls Kirby scummish.

Kirby notes the Poppy Corrik Interaction, says "he's not sure there's anything worth discussing" which is really interesting to me because because but two posts later Lopen notes that he's feeling "last game vibes" with respect to Poppy reacting to pressure from Corrik and he doesn't like that.

Sbell agrees Poppy has played differently, and Sultan also does but he's not sure it means anything cause Poppy has only played like 1 game here. REAL WEIRD that Kirby has nothing to say about Poppy since all these people are talking about him.

Page 2
NOW Kirby decides there is something worth talking about wrt Poppy, after he's getting lots of murmurings. He basically parrots my argument, but also notes that Poppy is "too prepared" with rationalizing why he's playing different.

Page 3
Not something that you might find in an ISO, but do note Lopen takes issue with Corrik calling out CHANG but not POPPY. That's because Lopen thought Corrik pursuing Poppy made sense.

Page 4
Lopen says Poppy is no longer a hard town read. Says Ben > Sultan > Kirby is his scum read.

Ben DENIES being scum with Kirby specifically.

Not that we need more town reads on him but Abacus notes Poppy's defensiveness with respect to Corrik.

Page 6
Poppy denies Lopen's "last game vibes" assertion but says it's not that weird even if so because he's the same person.

Poppy doesn't like Ctes's posts because it's narrating Lopen's actions.

Poppy asks what "talking points" Kirby has liked from SBell. This is really interesting because it serves as a major catalyst in getting the Sbell ball rolling.

Kirby answers Poppy's question by saying he likes how he's going after Red. Man, Kirby was there 2 hours before lynch talking in SBell's support. Real suspicious he just disappeared.

Ben "ews" Lopen for voting Han. Ben calls Poppy obvtown, but does so by agreeing with Peaf calling Poppy obvtown. Oh wait they're both dead. Never mind.

Page 7
Lopen puts Poppy as #3 town. Ben as #5 scum.

Poppy argues against Kirby's softball defense of Sbell, saying it's easy to fake.

Poppy responds to Lopen being uneasy about Corrik thinking the scumteam is good and says Corrik is "performative and has not shown any indication of playing like the scumteam is good." Imo this is Poppy trying to manipulate Lopen's suspicion of Corrik but your results may vary.

Poppy responds to Lopen saying Sultan is not an easy lynch and that he's scum by saying Sultan has more "depth of thought" than the last game.

Poppy says Han is a bad lynch and claims the argument between Lopen and Han is "not productive."

Page 9
Ben won't lynch Kirby, Sultan, Han, Sbell, Poppy, Peaf, or Corrik. ... wow. I wish I'd seen this before when I thought Ben was obviously town, what a huge list there to rationalize "no SBell"

My key takeaway here is that BCT was panicking on the scumboard and had his buds help him.

You can sorta see that Kirby and Poppy are trying to shield BCT here. I encourage everyone to read Page 3 through Page 6 on Topic 1 and say I'm not right here. There is just SO much interaction between these three, all centered around establishing that BCT is a defensive character.

Oh boy. An excuse to post more. I just did topic 1.

Poppy
Topic 1
Page 2
Calls lopen + Ben town and squints at IGCD vote (rule of 3, I'm obviously town!)

Page 3
Lopen questions Poppy's assessment that Ctes is scumhunting. Poppy says scum wouldn't just back off like that, then we have a back and forth where Lopen asserts Ctes is scum for backing off Sultan too easily.

Kirby mentions that he had a town read on Sultan in a discussion with Ben. Poppy interjects and asks if Kirby has a read on Lopen (this is really interesting actually, getting scum theatre vibes with this seeing Poppy loop Kirby in from a discussion from Ben)

Poppy says Sultan having 0 votes means Ctes giving up on him means nothing and it's a reach. Lopen insists that he is one to be feared as a relentless tunneler and that Ctes was scared of the tunnel digging.

Poppy addresses a post where Han calls BCT scum and ignores the BCT scum part completely but addresses Han doubting his defense of Ctes.

Poppy says that he assumes BCT only suspects Han because Han suspects BCT. This is interesting-- does Poppy actually know BCT's defensiveness firsthand or not?

Page 4
Poppy unvotes Sbell and votes red13n wordlessly. This comes after red13n says BCT is doing the opposite of learning a lesson after he's about to run after being scared, and notably, about the same time Poppy comments on BCT's defensiveness.

Poppy says BCT is overreacting to suspicion. Poppy feels like he's indirectly protecting BCT here.

In post 158, Poppy goes harder and directly protects BCT, saying that his heart wants to say BCT is frustrated townie and that he should be left alone.

Post 165 Kirby asks Poppy what NAI means and asks Poppy (and Corrik) to explain his vote. Doubly interesting (not directly Poppy related) is that Kirby says "he can't recall enough games with BCT to remember if he's defensive normally" yet Poppy does. This is really interesting. Kirby has more games here than Poppy, so if he doesn't know presumably Poppy wouldn't either-- at least one is faking it here for sure.

Kirby randomly says Ben is trying to make him look bad and votes him. Again, not Poppy, but... yeah, not seeing it, either. With hindsight this feels like Kirby making an excuse to bus Ben rather than voting for a reason.

BCT defends himself being defensive from Poppy saying he doesn't appreciate being called scum.

Page 5
Post 235 is interesting. Poppy elaborates with a response to the aforementioned interesting post 165 with a very detailed character study on BCT and how he plays with players similar to BCT. He justifies his vote. This feels very scripted between Kirby and Poppy to make BCT look better, and it's funny I identified 165 as interesting before knowing Poppy would come back to it.

Poppy calls Kirby "needlessly defensive" for his Ben vote-- another thing I had commented on before Poppy later commented on it. Very funny indeed.

Mentors BCT more with more pep talks. Jumps off red, votes Kirby, when hb lumps red's attitude to BCT in with Kirby. "Can roll with this."

Ben joins in, says he is right that BCT is needlessly defensive but that it's not a scumtell.

Page 6
Poppy says Kirby said a bunch of stuff but reached no meaningful conclusion when talking about BCT (260). I agree with this completely. God this is a lot of theatre.

Poppy defends BCT from SBell, asking whether BCT saying "he doesn't know what he is doing" is scum indicative. Sbell argues with him, Han backs Sbell.

276 Kirby agrees to lay off of BCT with some war stories from Baseball Mafia. Then reminisces about Simple Mafia war stories to rationalize suspecting Ben to Poppy.

MORE knighting from Poppy of BCT defending from Sbell. My god this feels like BCT was freaking out on the scum board and they were all like "we'll protect you bro"

Page 7
Lopen puts up a random read list. Has BCT and Poppy as town. Has Ben and Kirby scum. Lopen votes Kirby saying we should kill him, and Ben argues that Kirby is one of his town reads. (more Kirby/Ben relevant than Poppy relevant but still worth saying)

Lopen tells SBell he needs to ask WHY Red things Poppy is playing differently rather than just dismissing it. Good point, Lopen. Lopen asks Sbell if he's trying to discredit red or say Poppy is town and then encourages Red to elaborate.

Page 8
Kirby agrees with SBell's point of view, but also didn't notice Poppy playing differently (this is odd to me specifically because I also did and this is why I was trying to get Red to elaborate to see if we were fully vibing on Poppy or not or he saw something else)

Page 9
Ben claims to be vibing with Sbell, Han, Ctes, Poppy, Lopen, Kirby, and Sultan. He explicitly says Lopen could be bullshitting.

Post 440, BCT calls Poppy and Ben "favorable gut reads" and gives neither of them any justification whatsoever choosing to comment on other players.

Anyway that's my last non-vote post of the day unless anyone requests my input. I'm posting too much.

We need to have Chang burn his trap before end of the day so he can use Peaf's trap if he had one. Preferably on BCT but it really doesn't matter-- I'll fall on the grenade if Hb wants. Just let me know.
Then we end the day unless other people have anything to say.

No matter who dies do not waver from Poppy BCT and Kirby being scum. We also have Chang use Pot of Greed on Kirby to test if he's lying about his trap. And then buy mass ghost belles and use them.

Usurper is scum vanilla that becomes Godfather if the Godfather dies and only wins if the original Godfather ends the game dead.

I've won with it on b8 before in FFT Mafia so that's probably part of why it's something closer to my radar than other people's. But I also didn't really push that, just thought about it very briefly until Kirby made a very scummy post and made me realize "oh yeah, it's him, duh"

Anyway we need to drop this. It's not doing anything unless you're trying to argue Sultan is scum Usurper. Because I'm not.

Poppy
BCT/Kirby
BCT/Kirby

This is the lynch path to win the game.

Keep in mind it's Usurper Sultan with the caveat that BCT would need to flip Godfather-- and there is in game behavior to rationalize that. Usurper targets the Godfather by design-- if Sultan didn't have a power role his soul read on BCT is hard to rationalize.

Again at this point that is also 0% but you can't say it's a lower chance than Godfather Abacus. Godfather Abacus requires so many things.

1. Hb hits the 1/11 on the GF. That makes the odds we're working based off of 9% tops.
2. Godfather existing in the setup at all. That lowers the chance of that 9%.
3. A scumteam that avoids killing town cop Hb when their GF is scanned and the game is at lylo and instead tries to mislynch him.

It just doesn't happen. Ever.

It's all done in parallel. It doesn't realistically save any time because VA isn't ever going to be the bottleneck in development.

In fact I'd skip the pleasantries and just lynch either of you today and just ignore Poppy.

That's how confident I am the game is solved here. But it unfortunately isn't about what I think it's about what the game thinks (and to be fair, I have an unfair advantage of knowing my own alignment-- I'm not sure I buy myself as town here if I'm in one of your shoes) so I just gotta hope I can make myself look good enough to not get lynched.

Like you don't get to call me insane and harp on not removing the possibility of a 9% chance to lose (that's realistically not even 1/10 that)

If Abacus is GF you take the L and move on. There's like no chance of it at this point. Mentioning it is a scum tactic to make town not trust other players.

Sultan Usurper would have absolutely made sense if BCT flipped Godfather.

Much MUCH higher chance than Abacus being Godfather.

But BCT won't flip Godfather due to fear of the day cop he definitely scans scum-- and even if he does I lynch you at this point.

Side note I hope Mzero is ok. Replacing out of a game where he actually didn't draw scum! Crazy!