Lurker > transience

FINE MOLTAR I'LL POST IT MYSELF (this analysis kinda sucks anyway)

transience's analysis

Auron sucks! That's my analysis here. I've been underwhelmed by him the last two rounds and his FF8/10 brethren tell the same tale. Dude had a cakewalk of a bracket and shouldn't be here. He's the worst of the big bracket.

Sonic's probably around where he's always been, helped out by Sonic Mania and the weird icon boost. I think Sonic goes kinda big here compared to what we had been seeing. If Sonic struggles to get 55 here, we should expect bad things in the future.

transience's prediction: Sonic with 59.88%
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xyzzy

just wait til when Samus flips Mario
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xyzzy

that's gonna be so weird. I wonder how we even analyze those runbacks. I'm so mad that they didn't get shipped to the other side of the bracket, though I guess that makes bracketmaking kinda impossible if you don't get every matchup.
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xyzzy

yes!
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xyzzy

Cloud's always had the craziest swings. it's because he's the strongest of the bunch, I think. this is pretty decent by Cloud given the other matches.

man, Mario vs. Sephiroth is going to clear up a lot.
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xyzzy

Kirby woulda won this
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xyzzy

UK is always the problem with these contests

I wouldn't count a Pokemon character out with the day vote.
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xyzzy

the fate of the noble nine rests on a rat, eh
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xyzzy

I have faith
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xyzzy

I just realized that, if this holds, Pikachu/Ganondorf is pretty unpredictable
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xyzzy

ack

better get writing tonight! this break took me all out of it
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xyzzy

wait, matches start tomorrow? I thought they said Tuesday in the rules
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xyzzy

that's dumb. there'll surely be a rematch poll even if it's not for prizes. that'd be pretty hype, kinda like MGS4/Brawl.
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xyzzy

or both
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xyzzy

ranking round 1 matches in the big bracket

Mario/Sephiroth
Snake/Zelda
Tifa/Samus
Crono/Bowser
Mega Man/Pikachu
Sonic/Auron
Cloud/Alucard
Link/Ganondorf (you can argue this should be much higher just to see how high it goes)
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xyzzy

the mere rumor of Geno being in Smash is probably worth more than Mario RPG already
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xyzzy

you know, I just played with the new bracket for a few minutes and there's probably a great chance to debate if the noble nine holds here. I think it's pretty likely.
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xyzzy

maybe. I'm always skeptical of Samus after the Mario match. the Tifa one is just proof that she can be vulnerable vs. anyone. just feels like she could break against any good opponent.
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xyzzy

I think the numbers are mostly fine. I believe in Lara so seeing her be pretty legit is fine by me.

I'm worried about Samus/Tifa though. we've already seen that be scary once, and now we have a potential rally on top of that.
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xyzzy

I think we should give huge props to the bracket maker. I question the big bracket's placement, but I did the baby bracket too and we got a lot of really good stuff.
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xyzzy

Simon over Vincent what a world

I don't think Luigi can win this. he might get close but I think the rally would come in response. we've opened pandora's box.
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xyzzy

speaking of, I should copy these over. looks like we only have the first half but Leon can add them in when we finish up tomorrow

Division 1

Ganondorf 50.00%
Vivi 48.04%
Dante 43.60%
Donkey Kong 43.26%
Chun-Li 41.09%
Leon Kennedy 38.35%
Tidus 37.26%
Spyro the Dragon 36.02%
Lightning 29.98%
Cuphead 24.77%
Yu Narukami 24.13%
Dragonborn 24.02%
Aya Brea 23.59%
Neku Sakuraba 21.40%
Victor Sullivan 19.08%
Chloe Price 15.48%

Division 2

Pikachu 50.00%
Yoshi 45.20%
Zero 43.44%
Knuckles the Echidna 38.10%
Kratos 36.59%
Wario 34.53%
Scorpion 33.59%
Zidane Tribal 32.92%
Master Hand 26.96%
Velvet Crowe 26.55%
Monika 24.47%
Shantae 23.26%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 22.89%
Primrose 22.43%
James Sunderland 20.69%
John Marston 19.63%

Division 3

Alucard 50.00%
Pokemon Trainer Red 46.19%
Sora 45.36%
Big Boss 44.18%
Princess Peach 43.19%
Crash Bandicoot 41.64%
Kefka 40.56%
Yuna 40.38%
Ridley 38.29%
Cecil Harvey 38.16%
Bomberman 32.59%
L-Block 32.29%
Ryo Hazuki 28.05%
Kazuma Kiryu 25.50%
Neptune 22.80%
Godot 22.16%

Division 4

Bowser 50.00%
Kirby 46.14%
Charizard 43.45%
2B 41.81%
Terra Branford 41.02%
Ness 38.70%
Shadow the Hedgehog 36.17%
Phoenix Wright 29.24%
Ike 28.86%
Isaac 27.42%
Chris Redfield 25.19%
Guile 23.49%
Gordon Freeman 22.61%
Joel 21.74%
Estelle Bright 19.40%
Cayde-6 18.56%
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xyzzy

I know this will shock everyone but Seph's division probably looks crazy stat wise

I think Lara beats Shepard like 63-37
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xyzzy

I can't get over the idea of offsite rallies to keep final fantasy relevant on gamefaqs
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xyzzy

if Tifa wins here, Samus beats Tifa and Mario beats Sephiroth.. we get Tifa/Sephiroth, which maybe isn't completely obvious going off of these results?

though I posted that before Sephiroth righted the ship vs. Ryu
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xyzzy

they're obviously close enough that either can win on another day, but it's hard to deny that last hour
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xyzzy

Luigi went big on a halfway decent opponent and Tifa needed a rally to beat MMX. also, Zelda.

edit: also Bowser
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xyzzy

there was a rally topic on r/finalfantasy too (by extha, which is hilarious). that match was so flat that I don't think you could even tell that there was a rally until the very end there.
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xyzzy

time to make a comeback on Moltar
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xyzzy

yeah, Fox feels like he should be a half step better than Simon at least, but I'm with you on everything being a big jumbled mess.

I usually can gauge inter-fanbase hierarchies, but I could make a 16 character Smash or Smash-adjacent midcarder bracket and get some wildly different results. something like Falcon, Fox, Ness, Simon, Ridley, Ike, Waluigi, Toad, KKR, Rosalina, Pac-Man, Bayonetta, Wario, Dedede, Master Hand, Ken. yuck.
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xyzzy

I wouldn't assume Auron > Aerith any more than I would Squall > Auron or Squall > Aerith

edit: who wins, Fox or Geralt? I'd pick Fox
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xyzzy

I guess we can probably put the pieces together, somewhat, based on the losers bracket. cause as good as these guys are, they are losers compared to the big kids.
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xyzzy

LeonhartFour posted...

also the 2004 Games Contest was my first bracket and boy was it ever a doozy

I had Tetris > LoZ, Sonic 2 > Mario World, Metroid Prime > Wind Waker, and Mario 3 winning the whole thing

I had a perfect Division 32/64 though!

my final four was Tetris/FF6/FF7/FF10
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xyzzy

eh, Sub's had decent results, but so has Geralt. I'll be curious to see where Rosalina and Shulk end up measuring. I think Rosalina's probably about equal to Shulk, maybe slightly better?
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xyzzy

okay Auron's safe

Aerith/Squall look equal to me
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xyzzy

yeah I guess I could see that line of logic, that Tifa being good in the face of all these guys sucking is actually super impressive
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xyzzy

how is Tifa a star? she's done fine, of course, but she had to be at least a co-fave to come out of the bottom of the bracket. now, if she smashes Luigi then I might consider her.

but Alucard.. I don't think anyone had him going to the div final, let alone winning it.
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xyzzy

leave it to rSFF

Alucard is the undeniable star of the baby bracket, if you ask me
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xyzzy

if Alucard = Bowser then Kefka = Terra. that's weird.
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xyzzy

Leon, what does div 3 look like? is Crash above Yuna?
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xyzzy

I'll be interested to hear people's Ryu/Seph takes though
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xyzzy

based on other matchups, Geralt has sucked from :05 to :10 more than :00 to :05. I still don't think this is totally over, though I think the most likely result is Auron with ~53%
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xyzzy

Luigi/Tifa is the last piece of the puzzle, I think. we'll go into the big bracket having a really good idea of where everyone lies -- and outside of maybe Snake and Crono, we should have an idea of how the N9 looks too.
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xyzzy

I'll say this - Auron, Yuna and Squall sucking makes Zelda's performance look a lot more normalized. Aerith is probably in that same boat. Tidus... well, Ganondorf just might not be very good this year based off of Chun.
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xyzzy

well, Geralt was at 49% on Rosalina, 50% on Bayonetta (48% at :10), and 52% on Simon (49% at :30)
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xyzzy

(I'm actually not totally convinced Auron wins this)
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xyzzy

Auron's gonna go low here. this is really bad.
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xyzzy

wow, nice job zelda

I want to see the n9 guys because wow
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xyzzy

those numbers look good. Alucard is doing exactly as you'd expect based on performances too. Kirby's division, though
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xyzzy

first we rally a final fantasy 7 character and now we pour one out for a poor nintendo character

can't wait to see where we go next
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xyzzy