Lurker > Crossfiyah

Doesn't the entire 2nd season happen over like a day and a half.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I am an adult and when I really want something I just buy it for myself.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Can you do this for a good game next.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

My roommate's team published the new National Climate Change Assessment today.

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/?fbclid=IwAR1dwWs6UXm_qCeQq3edHZrjsIf9dIQtJ2i2ML6RTOmDkTH-rXBzziJW0aM

We're still fucked. But now you can see how fucked your region is in particular.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

xp1337 posted...

Also, a retrospective on 538's models:

538 Projection:

House: D+39
Senate: R+1 (rounded from 0.5)
Governor: D+8

Reality:

House: D+39 (with CA-21 still outstanding. Narrow R lead, but as provisionals have been coming in the Democrat has cut the lead. But they aren't going to continue counting this week so boo. Would be a D gain if the Democrat wins)
Senate: R+2
Governor: D+7

So basically, 538's model was a Florida away from being perfect. (And possibly even underestimating the House slightly if CA-21 goes blue to bring the number to 40 pickups.)

That house prediction is bonkers. Like, absolutely outstanding. This was their first year doing it so I thought they'd need some time perfecting it. It is crazy how perfect they were on just about everything.

And yet I still see people on the Right talking about how the Leftwing Media got it wrong.

Still waiting on Ulti to admit that he's full of shit and Nate Silver isn't a stooge for ABC or whatever insanity he was spouting for the last two years.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I don't have this kind of time anymore fam.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

1. Lmao.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

scarletspeed7 posted...

Crossfiyah posted...

Sing something that isn't ultra cliche.

Okay, so let me give you my short list of 4 so you can tell me if these are ultra cliche:

"Desperado", The Eagles
"Nine in the Afternoon", Panic at the Disco
"Californication", Red Hot Chili Peppers
"I Want It That Way", Backstreet Boys

The last one is ultra cliche the others are probably fine.

Under the Bridge would be cliche though.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Sing something that isn't ultra cliche.

I'm a frequent karaoke goer and even if someone isn't great, if they're singing something I haven't heard a billion times before I don't care.

Also just have fun like who cares what people like me think.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

UltimaterializerX posted...

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1062844895499636736?s=21

Called it. Told you so. Vindicated. Yet another thing I was ahead of the curve on. As usual, Ulti Was Right. How DOES one man Fly All These Ws?

Reminder that you lib8rals all loved this clown.

Remember when you said 538 was garbage and then they basically called the mid terms perfectly.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Introduce an amendment that:

Increases the voting age to 25 (unless maybe if they're in the military)
Ends felon disenfranchisement (unless maybe if they're currently incarcerated)

I feel like that can be palatable to the GOP since the 18-24 year old idiots won't be able to vote blue.

With that in mind can we cut off voting at 80+ since you don't have enough time left on this earth to deal with the ramifications of your choice.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Mississippi is barely on planet earth.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

SuperNiceDog posted...

banananor posted...

SuperNiceDog posted...

They remember Obama(2009-16) had 8 years and when he went up there he said barely anything of consequence, basically talked people to sleep because he was so likeable and what he said SOUNDED good. Sounded good but did nothing to help normal people once the speech was done

What do you mean by normal people?

average Americans. Can you remember a single Obama speech from when he was actually president?(not Yes we can, that was 2008 during campaign) Any inspiring quotes?

His entire final state of the union speech is a work of art.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

WrestIeMania posted...

Well. Americans once again show they are fucking stupid. Have to live with this fucking cancer for two years. Will take it back again in two years at least, and then make America amazing. Literally cant have anything good happen with libs in charge of anything

You could just move.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

charmander6000 posted...

Yeah, Republicans may be favoured in the Senate, but it is winnable for Democrats

Dems could not win a swing state Senate seat in an environment where they were +9.2 in a mid term against one of the least popular administrations in history.

How exactly are they going to win the Senate in an election year or worse, while defending with the presidency?
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Dark Young Link posted...

Alright, stopped paying attention at 9ish

How did it all go down?

Dems win House comfortably, Republicans win Senate comfortably.

Everything went as expected.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Eddv posted...

It's not like we were living on a different fucking planet in 2006.

The environment will flip back some. It always does.

We kind of were honestly. The rural/urban divide has gotten *so* much worse in a decade.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

UltimaterializerX posted...

TheRock1525 posted...

The Senate was an unfavorable map to Democrats, which will be flipped for the 2020 election.

Are you drunk?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2020

They'll maybe flip Maine or WV.

Hate to admit it but Ulti is right the Senate will not favor Dems until...well...how long is the heat death of the universe?
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

TheRock1525 posted...

Also I'm pretty sure the 9.2% was strictly house voting.

Well that's the one that should basically equal the spread in House representation if things aren't gerrymandered so.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

UltimaterializerX posted...

Anyone who thinks both sides don't gerrymander like motherfuckers is just biased as all hell.

Like, pull up some of these traditional blue powers and look at some of the insanity of these districts. They all do it.

Compare popular votes in each state vs. percentage of house representatives in each state and tell me that Republicans do not get more from it.

In Ohio In Florida. In North Carolina. In Texas. In Michigan. Previously in Pennsylvania.

Yeah Maryland is a mess I'll give you that but that's pretty much all Democrats have done.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Dems still have a chance to pick up more than estimated depending on how the southwest shakes out.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I hope Corrik is prepared for the shit he's going to get after the House is done and I compare flipped Solid/Leaning/Likely R/D districts to that 95%/75%/60% breakdown I was really generous about earlier.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik posted...

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Yeah Beto is pretty great.

If he can't beat Cruz he can't beat Trump

Cruz beat him by less than Trump beat Clinton there.

He has mainstream appeal and could do really well on the national stage.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

House projections are also back up to 538s original projections of +mid 30s.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

red sox 777 posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Whats the 2020 Senate map look like for Dems?

There is one seat held by a senator of the party which lost that state in the last presidential election, in the next 2 senate elections. There were around 10 today, almost all held by Democrats. The Republicans should have a permanent majority of 55+ seats in the Senate from their advantage in small states, it's more surprising that this hasnt happened yet.

This is surprisingly insightful no offense.

The Senate is basically impossible for Democrats to hold ever with the current rural/urban divide.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

KamikazePotato posted...

Elections at this point are about fighting the tyranny of the minority

Democrats will absolutely get more votes, they might just not get more votes in the specific places they need to

Which is why pickups in all these governorships are so important.

Fixing all of these gerrymandered nightmares will make the 2022+ races much more competitive.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Midwest looking much better than the Southeast did.

Maybe we should have let that whole area secede.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Literally the only definition of things Conservatives consider "exerting will" is taxes.

Strip away all the rights you want but don't you dare take a percentage of earned income to facilitate a society.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik posted...

I wish democrats could just be so much less fucking hostile. I mean, we can be friends and buds and Converse and just believe different things. It isn't like we are out trying to force our will over yours on a personal level.

Except on abortion right.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

So far it seems like everyone is turning out en masse and the rural areas are offsetting some of the suburban gains.

Basically big who fucking knows right now. Dems will certainly pick up a lot of seats but how many is anyone's guess and it's possible it won't be enough.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Tag
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Leafeon13N posted...

Crossfiyah posted...

I'm pretty sure Ulti is the only person on board 8 so fragile that they still mark messages for flaming.

This is never true.

If you think you know who marks things, just think again. People are never right about this one.

It's weird that I only ever get modded when I offhandedly mention how awful he is though. Nobody or nothing else.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

I'm pretty sure Ulti is the only person on board 8 so fragile that they still mark messages for flaming.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

red sox 777 posted...

If you're drinking to the extent it can be smelled, this should be banned.

Welcome to the United States of Virtue. No weed, no tobacco, no alcohol, no birth control, no welfare, no promiscuity (applies to men too), no health insurance, no illegal immigration, no social security, and most importantly, no taxation without representation (unless you live in a blue state in which case you should be taxed heavily to pay for handouts to the super rich).

Which part of that is virtuous.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Just follow the 538 live feed.

It has baby animals.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

UltimaterializerX posted...

LapisLazuli posted...

Am I seeing correctly that Trump claimed he was the most brilliant human being who has ever lived?

Hes well up there yeah.

I can't imagine how dumb of a person you have to be to think Trump is smart.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

"Heres some perspective: An 86 percent chance is closer to Barack Obamas odds of winning in 2012 than Hillary Clintons in 2016. The difference is basically this: Clinton, who had a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our final forecast much lower than most journalists and most other statistical models assumed, as Im annoyingly obligated to point out lost the Electoral College on the basis of one thing going wrong: She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the MIdwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College.1 Obama, by contrast, because he tended to overperform in the Midwest and in other key swing states, would have needed multiple things to go wrong to lose to Mitt Romney. Even if Romney had a systematic polling error in his favor, Obama might still have won by holding on to narrow victories in the key Electoral College states.

Likewise, Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans. (At least not when it comes to the House; its all going quite swimmingly for the GOP in the Senate.) At a macro level based on national indicators and the historical tendency of the presidents party to lose seats at the midterm elections the situation looks bad for Republicans. But at the local level when you evaluate factors one district at a time, as our model does it looks worse. The polling is bad for Republicans, the fundraising numbers are awful, and the slate of potential Democratic pickups runs deep into Republican territory. The data is uncertain, because it contains a margin-of-real-world-error. But I dont think the data is ambiguous. It says Democrats are over the threshold theyd need to win the House."

Conservatives should read those two paragraphs before calling 538 partisan hackery.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Is anyone else excited by the fact that after tomorrow people like Ulti will be too ashamed to show their face in here for a little while.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

LordoftheMorons posted...

Theres a ton of uncertainty (enough to give Trump a 30% chance of winning) primarily because no one has perfect information. Of course if you duplicate the world at 6am on Election Day and run things 1000 times youre not gonna see Clinton win it 700 (though maybe she wins it in one or two universes due to, like, the Russia story breaking that morning or something). The sense in which we can see if the probabilities are well callibrated is to average over many elections. Notably, if Nate calls 1000 matches as being 70/30 matches and the favorite wins in 900 of them, hes just as wrong as if the favorite had won in 500 of them.

You cant do this across just one election though because the errors are, to a large extent, correlated (i.e. if the polls underestimated Trump in Iowa they probably also underestimated him in Ohio).

Nah if you run that election even a week earlier Clinton wins it's handily. The Comey letter was a 3 point slide that we know about. Extrapolate it and it's probably more. Also there was a huge amount of undecided voters at the time. Way more than historically. To top it off the electoral college exists and 538 actually said it was way more likely Trump would win the presidency and lose the popular vote than win both.

None of those things are true this time.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik posted...

Crossfiyah posted...

That is not how any of this works. Probability accounts for all of that in a well designed model with good data.

Again your entire problem is you are overestimating how sure of a thing a generally red district will be. You are treating all of then as equally likely while some are red by 3 points and some are red by 40 points.

I do not think it is a well-designed model and think it shows on how it has had the highest average seat gain of any model I have seen.

I think it skews towards democrats too drastically and it screws up the entire model.

But, we will see in a day!

I mean it doesn't really matter. You are still making the same error regardless. You think all districts have the same chance of going the color they probably will go.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

That is not how any of this works. Probability accounts for all of that in a well designed model with good data.

Again your entire problem is you are overestimating how sure of a thing a generally red district will be. You are treating all of then as equally likely while some are red by 3 points and some are red by 40 points.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik posted...

Crossfiyah posted...

Corrik posted...

Crossfiyah posted...

Clearly because you fundamentally misunderstand probability.

A solid seat is a 95% chance of winning or higher. A party will lose let's say 1 in 20 of these.

A likely seat is a 75% chance. A party will lose about 1 in 4 or 5 of these.

A leaning seat will be lost about 2 in 5 times.

Republicans by 538s count has 135 solid seats, 49 likely seats, and 13 leaning seats. They will win an average of 128, 37, and 8 if these if I'm being generous.

You are treating these 197 seats as 197 seats won. In reality they are closer to 173 seats won.

Take the toss ups and split them in half and you get 182 seats for Republicans not 200 something.

Do the same for Democrats now. 193 (!!!) solid seats, 17 likely seats, 10 leaning seats. Translates to 10+4+4=18 pick ups for a total of 200 seats AFTER toss ups are calculated. Not before.

You're fundamentally misunderstanding how many safe or safe leaning seats will be lost.

You are assuming probabilities are clear cut answers.

Go back to the 2014 midterms. How many solids and likelies and such actually flipped.

Okay bud.

Did 25% of likelies 5% of solids, 40% of leans flip? Was it even close to those numbers?

Odds of winning are not pulled out of a hat they are based on historic outcomes given the lead in polling.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik posted...

Crossfiyah posted...

Clearly because you fundamentally misunderstand probability.

A solid seat is a 95% chance of winning or higher. A party will lose let's say 1 in 20 of these.

A likely seat is a 75% chance. A party will lose about 1 in 4 or 5 of these.

A leaning seat will be lost about 2 in 5 times.

Republicans by 538s count has 135 solid seats, 49 likely seats, and 13 leaning seats. They will win an average of 128, 37, and 8 if these if I'm being generous.

You are treating these 197 seats as 197 seats won. In reality they are closer to 173 seats won.

Take the toss ups and split them in half and you get 182 seats for Republicans not 200 something.

Do the same for Democrats now. 193 (!!!) solid seats, 17 likely seats, 10 leaning seats. Translates to 10+4+4=18 pick ups for a total of 200 seats AFTER toss ups are calculated. Not before.

You're fundamentally misunderstanding how many safe or safe leaning seats will be lost.

You are assuming probabilities are clear cut answers.

Go back to the 2014 midterms. How many solids and likelies and such actually flipped.

Okay bud.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Clearly because you fundamentally misunderstand probability.

A solid seat is a 95% chance of winning or higher. A party will lose let's say 1 in 20 of these.

A likely seat is a 75% chance. A party will lose about 1 in 4 or 5 of these.

A leaning seat will be lost about 2 in 5 times.

Republicans by 538s count has 135 solid seats, 49 likely seats, and 13 leaning seats. They will win an average of 128, 37, and 8 if these if I'm being generous.

You are treating these 197 seats as 197 seats won. In reality they are closer to 173 seats won.

Take the toss ups and split them in half and you get 182 seats for Republicans not 200 something.

Do the same for Democrats now. 193 (!!!) solid seats, 17 likely seats, 10 leaning seats. Translates to 10+4+4=18 pick ups for a total of 200 seats AFTER toss ups are calculated. Not before.

You're fundamentally misunderstanding how many safe or safe leaning seats will be lost.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Corrik posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

Eddv posted...

Ive decided Im done checking in on the polls.

At this point the ranges have been established and all thats really left is for people to vote

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1059426825942822913?s=21

Nate Silver is backing off from his 85% idiocy because he knows hes about to look like a major idiot.

He has the actual metrics and refuses to show them, because he is a fraud.

Well, generic ballot is generic across the country. Not Florida. Which is why I said basing on the generic ballot and not local races is bad.

You could have uneven polarization in alrdy polarized areas to create that generic difference.

I did notice the % went up but his prediction went down to 38 average seat gain from 40.

With CNN and others more in the 32-33 range, it makes sense for him to go lower.

With a 205-200 relatively safe split and 30 toss ups. Silver had Dems basically sweeping all the toss ups. Which wasn't realistic.

You misunderstand pretty hard. Look at the number of safe R to safe D. It's a 50 seat differenece. Every solid and likely D will not go D and every solid and likely R will not go R. Even if Toss ups split 50/50 Republicans will be way down on the basis of lost likely and solid R seats because they have so many less Safe R seats than there are Safe D seats.

By just looking at toss up seats you're ignoring a 50 seat disadvantage for Republicans.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Wait what's wrong with Starcraft Remastered.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Yeah I mean frankly if Wyoming and South Dakota want to run themselves into the ground nobody can stop them.

But states like Ohio, Florida, etc.. have enough people that don't want to live in a Mad Max Fury Road style wasteland that it's worth caring who's running them.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Frankly they aren't as important.

The mayor of New York City is more important than literally anyone involved in anything in Wyoming on any level.

Probably more important than anyone that's ever even been to Wyoming.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Yeah I mean Democrats have been working overtime to win back state-level congresses and governorships precisely for the 2020 census.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"

Not_an_Owl posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Dems could really hold governorships over 70% of the US population.

I really wish people would stop touting the population percentage each party governs over like it means something. In almost every way that matters under the current constitution, the amount of people you govern is irrelevant; what matters is how many states a party governs.

Which is the dumbest thing ever.
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Jagr_68: "hittes Blake Kesseguin a super saiyan NHL star who gives earth a chance to win the Cell gaemz"