Lurker > red13n

Leafeon13N posted...

turbopuns3 posted...

Red who is your initial gut pick for scum?

Reading back me from days ago, my gut tells me to trust my old gut and that scum is mzero.

But the game is way more complicated than that.

Now I think it is my turn to go to bed.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Panthera posted...

Good evening

Alright so at this point, IGCD is confirmed barring some claim that seems unlikely to have waited this long (I believe Red, Puns, and myself are unclaimed now?) and on that note, I'm Ricochet, Face (Town) Vanilla. New to roster, need to work hard, etc.

I'm still sold on Corrik as town, I feel like the anti-Corrik crowd is kind of glossing over the discussion of scum having multiple lynch influencing roles being excessive. MZero's day 1 still bugs me a bit for how irrelevant he was, but since then his posts have generally been constructive and felt like town trying to figure things out. I won't rule him out entirely but I feel pretty comfortable putting him in the town category.

Leaves 5tar, Red and Puns. In that order, I think. 5tar's behavior this game just hasn't really added up from a town mindset, his entire thought process on thinking Death and Scare were linked as scum and then forgetting his read on Scare was built on Death being scum too doesn't feel like a mistake town would make. He focused a lot on them day 1 but never voted for either, going for Red instead who Scare started the train on. 5tar at one point day 1 said he was trying to choose between Red and Tom, before settling on Red. Makes Red/5tar look less likely as teammates, his vote came when the Red lynch looked like it could happen and he had to leave right after.

Red was in the background a lot early on, though he obviously had reason to be busy. He came alive on day 3 to argue for Ulti being town. He was pretty adamant about it but didn't really address the arguments against what he was saying. Feels like it might have been trying to look good by defending a townie who was very likely to be lynched (and if I'm right about Corrik, which I'm pretty sure I am, there would be no downside), he just didn't seem interested enough in considering how he could be wrong for it to be genuine.

Puns I felt good about early on, but by process of elimination he's here and his last day was starting to bug me. His reread of Eaed felt very awkward, like going through the motions. He said he had a theory that Eaed would bus his team hard to survive to endgame, then ultimately concluded he didn't know either way if that was happening because there was a lack of evidence, which calls into question why he'd bring it up in the first place besides trying to look like the analysis was more than it was. I'll have to look back on how he handled the Gladiator claim and this role fishing Corrik says he's been doing because I don't remember it clearly.

So that's where I am. 5tar > Red > Puns, with the caveat that 5tar being scum makes Red less likely.

turbopuns3 posted...

Not gonna overthink this. Panth has been pandering quite a lot this game. Nothing in the voting record to help his case. He's never even been voted, either. (just a stupid thing where ulti voted 4 people in the same post day 1). Classic case of scum stays out of the way while town big dogs fight.

I would say staying out of the way and being indecisive was me for much of day 3, but not before that. IGCD revealing his track was fake was demoralizing so yeah, I know I was a bit at a loss after that, but the first two days I was generally pretty involved when I was around.

This is panth's last post of much substance before it becomes pretty clear hes going down.

He pretty quickly 180's on mzero back to hard town after throwing the shade. Posting this now for easier referencing. Trying to figure out what exactly what he thinks his endgame is here.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Panthera posted...

I agree his content today (and day 2 I think as well IIRC) has been solid, but is fake claiming miller really out of the realm of possibility for him? Remember in Blade Mafia when he made that awful suicide claim to get the godfather lynched when he was usurper, knowing it would get him lynched after the flip and probably piss off his entire team in the process? Claiming Miller as scum doesn't seem any ballsier than that was.

Panth actually tossed shade at you mzero.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Leafeon13N posted...

To actually tier it:

Death and igcd are uncountered scanners. We should have 2 easily.

Ulti has fit in with my town picture of him perfectly and puns has put in a lot of effort at a point scum should seem demoralized. They ate both probably town.

Star is innocent puppy I'd be surprised if hes scum.

Mzero hasn't done anything but ride a claim and panth has tried to be everyones friend.

Corrik got twisty with me early and used gladiate at a time town shouldn't gladiate on someone that seemed highly town to me at the time.

oh I did elaborate at least a little.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

I was actually really convinced corrik was scum until I got to the post where panth was trying to direct the gladiator(I still doubted this a bit with the flip yesterday, but apparently my reaction to that was right). Corrik posted that first but we were ctrl-f'ing panth at around the same time. i was actually trying to post the same thing he posted and he just kind of had me beat on timing.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Also I was looking for where I said it that day...

Leafeon13N posted...

turbopuns3 posted...

Red, who is corrik's partner?

Is it ever Ulti?

Panth?

Maybe an outside shot of mzero.

This was where I was pretty clear I suspected panth. At this point, I kind of wish i'd pressed harder for the paper trail, but oh well. I was pretty deflated by IGCD and vacation tired. I also wasn't necessarily feeling like I had to press very hard since the day was ulti vs corrik and with the game setup I was feeling pretty safe that I wasn't going to be a target(not to mention this was the first bit of game where I wasn't severely time limited).
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Since you were bringing it up puns, these are the two posts where I started to really not trust panth.

Good evening. Oh hey Corrik did the thing.

Alright so Red does raise a good point about IGCD tracking Ulti to Scare being bizarre if Ulti is scum since Tom would more likely have been the one to kill the claimed cop, but Corrik is right that Ulti might just insist on Strongmanning Han because he respects/fears him. Meanwhile, for Corrik to be scum...Gladiator isn't an extra kill exactly but it's pretty close since in practice scum can target someone they know they can beat. It's a 90% free mislynch, and this scum team already had a lynch manipulation role in the double voter. Corrik is likelier to be town than scum based on that alone.

If we lynch Ulti, it confirms IGCD one way or the other, so that guards against any sort of weird scum IGCD hero ball play. If we lynch Corrik, if he flips scum that confirms Ulti town (which makes the IGCD situation weird since we have to judge whether Ulti is just obsessed with lying about being Vanilla or if IGCD is actually scum...or this tracker framer thing exists but that seems too improbable to count on), if he flips town it doesn't really tell us anything.

Lynching Ulti seems like the better option here. Both he and Corrik have good reasons why they should be town, but Ulti's reason goes away if you assume his team made a questionable play in who to Strongman, which is not impossible, whereas Corriks reason remains solid no matter what. In terms of play, I think Corrik looks more like town than Ulti has. Ulti likely gives more information on lynch, since even if he's town he confirms one scum for us.

So I'm leaning towards lynching him right now. But I want time to think on it some more to make sure I'm not missing anything.

because this is the point i was like "ulti cant fucking be scum with that track" because it made no fucking sense(IGCD, not a great game here dude). I stand by the idea that my logic was sound as shit for ulti being town(Whereas at the time, corrik would have required a leap of faith). Panth basically came in and said "yeah red you bring up a good point but i'm going to lynch ulti anyway, probably". Despite the fact my point was fucking irrefutable at the time that ulti should have been town. If you liked my point(And you should have) theres no way you come out of that lynching ulti.

Panthera posted...

If Ulti is actually town, then Red pretty much has to be town too I think? If Red were scum, he'd have little reason to stop town Ulti from being mislynched. If he believed Ulti was Vanilla, he'd think it was a mislynch that would also make IGCD a possible mislynch. Good, possibly game winning for scum. If he believed Ulti was power, he'd think it was a mislynch of town power. Good for scum. No reason for him to point out the one inconsistency that could save Ulti.

If Ulti is scum, it could go either way. Red could be scum trying to save a teammate and possibly bait IGCD into taking back his track (we can assume scum knew all along that was fake if Ulti is scum) and make himself look bad, Red could be town who thought he'd caught onto something legit. Not 100% sure which is likelier. The scum possibility probably due to wanting to lynch Corrik who should be seen as town regardless due to his role. Not guaranteed though.

then he followed with this which was all sorts of bet hedging and safe.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

you think this is going to stop them from releasing a final mix?
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

Leafeon13N posted...

I have a reason i am going to keep to myself for now to think Corrik is town, but I like him less with me and ulti in his scumpile. That's potentially standard corrik misdirection.

Reason?

I got to go back and check context, I remember this but its been awhile.

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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

Leafeon13N posted...

I have a reason i am going to keep to myself for now to think Corrik is town, but I like him less with me and ulti in his scumpile. That's potentially standard corrik misdirection.

Reason?

I got to go back and check context, I remember this but its been awhile.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

I think I might actually be heading to bed soon. I think I'm still sort of on east coast time, and because I didn't have enough Disney I went to Disneyland for a bit today with my little cousins. And I have 11 days of work starting tomorrow.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

I think panth called him town too much for him to be scum.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

I think maybe they both thought Star had it in the bag. He hadn't even been on my radar til we dug hard into Panth.

Or its possible we are just completely overthinking their foresight. A team of tom/eaed/panth/star doesn't exactly have sound leadership.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

top
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

he was 'new" and so inexperienced / naive / a puppy dog. Etc.

Thats been the biggest thing hes had going for him for awhile. I just can't reread panth's posts and come out with him as town.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik where are you at right now?
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

those last 2 flips honestly made me feel a bit better. The lack of giving a shits by IGCD was absolutely worrying a small part in the back of my mind, even if it seemed kind of crazy. Was just kind of resigned to losing if there was only 1 scanner.

I still think panth's flip confirms that Star is the obvious answer, will let everyone chime in first.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

fuck boston
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

##vote: Panth

If I don't live remember, keep it simple.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

i usually do an initial run of just new pokemon. For the third game in a gen i'll mix in old favorites with new favorites I didn't get to use initially.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

besides that, in the event hes actually town i wouldn't mind hearing what hes thinking. i think we're on the mark here though, not enough dissent.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

curiosity more than anything.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Still no sign of him.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Repede
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

I don't think the game is as easy as 5tar/panth. And, I don't know if I see them being scummates.

honestly think you are just really overthinking it here.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Not really, tbh. my role isnt all that interesting.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

oh god corrik I know you are going to hate me for this but, Panth hasnt logged into gfaqs since last night.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

I'm not sure anyone is coming back. Slightly early night?
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Ammy
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

when you are literally referred to as "DQ Hero" its hard to imagine you as anything but generic.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Also got confirmation that none of the extra fees you can pay for various things on your flight are automatically refunded. Delta probably took thousands of dollars in bag fees, seat selection fees, in-flight wifi, food and who knows what else from passengers that they are just never going to call and ask for refunds for because the process is such a pain in the ass(Hour long phone call). Just from the 4 cancelled flights while I was there the money they likely essentially stole from people is ridiculous. Currently playing phone tag with various Delta reps to get these refunded, process has to be made as difficult as possible.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

also i'm going to reiterate he calls puns town like 20 times(I didnt count).
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

panth's posts were...eye opening, to say the least. The only thing that would shift anything in my mind is him flipping town. But considering I'm pretty sure everyone in the game is on board with lynching him, that seems impossible. every post he makes involving tom/eaed is so noticeably different from his tone on everything else.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

oh, this game does have secret reports. they are just all stuck in the endgame.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

his day 3/4 dont even have any opinions on anything. regurgitated logic and one unique vote.

i think the one person he actively questions on anything is igcd and igcd is as confirmed as it gets.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

no way in hell, now very possibly town corrik.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

Doesn't look like he forgets to talk about them. He moreso just says u and Mzero are scummier than them too. Also. To be fair.

the elaboration. he gives a big list of people that he hasnt crossed off the list. talks about all of them but eaed and star.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

lol it really is just panth and star isn't it. wow.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Panthera posted...

So Tom and Ulti are scum. Death and IGCD are town. So that leaves Pez, Eaed, Corrik, Puns, 5tar, MZero and Red (and me, but I have a good feeling about myself). Pez looks like almost certain town to me. Corrik is probably town, Puns looks town to me too. So Eaed, 5tar, MZero and Red are where I'd expect the last two scum to be. MZero really sticks out there, I know he's never super active but he's been very irrelevant this game. Same with Red but at least he has a Disney World excuse. I don't want to let him off the hook for it but I also don't want to lynch him for it. He seemed alright on day 1 when he did post but today hasn't been as solid. So I'd lean towards MZero and Red out of those four.

Heres more of him.

He forgets to talk about Star and Eaed entirely.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Has panth gone after anyone but death and star this game?

I'm not counting ulti his reasons for that lynch were all just logic stripped from other people.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

I do not trust putting Eaed on the Gladiator target list over this when it's so easy to realize what was meant.

fuck I saw this just now too.

shit.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

red13n posted...

Jesus Panthera is hella town. This is a good sign for us.

those were your opening words on the subject Corrik.

(I'm just doing a quick ctrl-f of "panth").

Yes. Do a quick one on what I first called puns this game also.

i know from the panth search you had puns in the town pile early to.

Scare actually saw what I saw in panth yesterday pretty early.

Everything safe and non-committal.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Jesus Panthera is hella town. This is a good sign for us.

those were your opening words on the subject Corrik.

(I'm just doing a quick ctrl-f of "panth").
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Also you say Star is most likely but then you should be well aware that the game doesn't end there. You don't seem to have anyone connected to him or any sort of backup after his lynch.

Nor you know, much concern that you got to -1 with multiple people still willing to kill you.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Panthera posted...

The exact specifics of the last game were less important than thinking about what might be going on in this one, and Corrik's point about Ulti has some merit to it even if the example he gave might not have been a perfect comparison (which again, I don't know with certainty because I didn't play in that game).

I specifically mention corrik was twisting things to fit his narrative.

Why error on the side of corrik and not the people telling you corrik was outright lying?
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

Red, let's assume me and you are town. Explain why puns is town.

Just, look at his line of questions yesterday. Hes a dude actively trying to figure out the game. I'll admit, if you actually flipped town, I'd get a lot more uncomfortable with the game state, but I think I still feel pretty comfortable feeling puns as town.

Its just if you look at the questions he asked yesterday, they are all looking for actual possibilities for the game rather than any self-serving interesting. I will admit I absolutely skim his scum iso post walls though. Those just bore me do death and make my brain shut off.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

k i did overreach my language saying you attacked the meta specifically. But you did spend a good chunk of the game calling Sultan(A neighbor) scum which contributed to cam running with his neighbor has to be scum argument.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

Red what is your accuracy in lynching people forever in mafia? 100%?

it is 100% in my mind, sure. I'm going to say its way above average though.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

Corrik7 posted...

Blade and Dels both fake claimed neighbors as scum in Azures mafia game. Their ploy was that if one flipped scum the other would seem confirmed town.

Hey, don't make me re-state what I said last game. But I'll give you the short version. You don't lynch a neighbor without consent of the other neighbor unless you have good reason to think both neighbors are scum.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.

to get specific, i'm not sure you ever specifically said b8 neighbors are usually town/scum.

but you did at the very least attack the neighbors pretty hard. Which definitely goes against the notion that b8 should always go in assuming neighbors are town/town.

I will do due diligence and check the rest though.

Admittedly, I'm still really fucking salty at cam for last game for not listening to me about b8 neighbor meta.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.