Lurker > KanzarisKelshen

So I dunno if this has been posted here yet, but I figured it was worth sharing. Thoughts, y'all?

https://twitter.com/Nigel_OnTheRoad/status/1235171767859195908?s=19

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transcience posted...

pictures dont really matter anymore because our voters have been doing this shit for a decade

I feel the fact all voters are vets at this point makes pic factor stronger in certain cases

like people are absolutely gonna meme it up if Solid Shit shows up, it's a contest tradition at this point

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If you can stomach very basic battle mechanics, start with the 2 duology. I feel very few people would argue they aren't as good or better as the post-3 games in terms of story, and going back to rougher gameplay from good is harder than the opposite. Otherwise start with 3.

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TheRock1525 posted...

"White Bernie supporter dismisses concerns from black electorate, wonders again why his candidate won't win the Democratic Nomination" - Part 152.

Also don't know why you're bringing up the Latino vote. How many people out there are going "how dare Latino people not vote for Biden?" compared to "how dare Black people not vote for Bernie?" Because they're both minority groups? Is the implication that clearly Latino people are more highly educated or informed than Black people because obviously if they were smarter they would have picked Bernie? If black people weren't so dumb they'd vote for Bernie? That they have no sense of agency but go "ooooo its Barack's VP better vote for him!"? But another minority group that voted for Bernie clearly "know the issues."

Here's a question then. What can Bernie offer to get black voters on board that he hasn't yet? What need is being left unaddressed IYO? This isn't a rhetorical question, I'm seriously curious.

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TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

Yeah, for laughs. Imagine making the Centrist = N-word comparison with a straight face. Ridiculous.

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Hollow Knight or Undertale I think. Undertale has a lot of ardent fans and recency advantage via Deltarune 2 and HK is super beloved and has amazing pic factor. Feel those are big strengths to have here.

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SwiftyDC posted...

In a poll that had half million voters, it getting Top 5 had me scratching my head at first but all my friends who play it - love it, so don't want to judge it without playing it myself. They keep telling me it's villain is one of the best (Emet).

Also, unrelated to my points about contest strength but yes, the main villain of Shadowbringers is very easily the greatest villain of any FF. The two best ones before that are Kefka and Sephiroth IMO, and while I think this bad guy wouldn't be worth anything in a contest (utterly unphotogenic, looks like a real person instead of a monster clown or an anime prettyboy), he's won tremendous acclaim for his depth and coolness.

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FFDragon posted...

Didn't they have to literally destroy the entire world and reboot it because it sucked so bad?

I don't disagree that it may be good now, but it was a long time getting there.

Yes, they had to do a whole mega reboot to redeem it, but that's very much not the same game that got noms to make it into GotD now. To give an idea of how far it's come...it was so successful Naoki Yoshida, the Director and Producer (he does both things) of XIV is part of Squeenix's top decisionmakers circle now and he's slated to headline the next mainline Final Fantasy, because they need something that works and comes out on time after the embarrassment of FFXV and he has a reputation for raising the dead. It was so successful that at PAX, the head writer of Shadowbringers got this reaction:

https://clips.twitch.tv/BlindingWrongElkBCouch

Like...GameFAQS might hate it. I don't know. But I really have to emphasize XIV is not WoW in any way that matters.

abdou posted...

The only thing I want from XIV is a single-player only version, to enjoy the purportedly excellent story without doing the MMO stuff..

It is effectively a partial SP game these days. They implemented a play-with-AI system for the latest expac's dungeons and are looking at backporting it to the previous releases.

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I don't feel XIV is comparable to Warcraft. Like, at all. Let's just go over it quickly...

-XIV didn't kill its franchise. Warcraft effectively died with WoW as new games never came out, whereas Final Fantasies are still coming out consistently.
-XIV doesn't regularly piss off its fanbase. Ask any WoW veteran (Chris? Red? Trdl?) and they will probably tell you about how stupid story angles, stupid mechanical decisions, and stupid whatever else kept drawing ire from the fanbase consistently since like, Wrath of the Lich King. Meanwhile, XIV players love it dearly. It has one of the most enduringly committed communities I've seen. It's also likely to dodge any 'Square's gone down the tubes!' backlash because its respect trajectory is an upward trend, and it was like that even while mainline FFs were bombing in terms of respect. This leads to my next point...
-XIV has built up a tremendous pedigree. It's not 'just' an MMO, it's the phoenix game that rose from the ashes of being absolute garbage to become the 'WoW killer' people wanted for ages. End of an Era was a trailer that excited non-MMO players, it has multiple documentaries chronicling the way it saved its entire company, and in general it's not just a game, it's a gaming story. How many games can say that their development narratives have interested people at all?
-Shadowbringers. Highest rated jRPG on metacritic. Actual Final Fantasy game. Widely praised as the best the franchise has done in ages to the point I know multiple people, people who post on this site and will vote, who shelled out a sub to try it in spite of never playing a paid MMO. You get the picture.

Does this mean XIV is gonna be a god-killer? No. But it's the first unambiguously well-received FF since FFX. I think that counts for something on this site.

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MichelBollinger posted...

Edna is good but I don't particularly...care about her?

She's honestly way more compelling just as Eizen's nebulous sister, lol.

And yeah, it's incredible what a nightmare most of the connecting threads in Zesteria are if you play Berseria first. The difference in quality between those two games is frankly unbelievable. What I wouldn't give for the budgets to have been swapped.

And yes I did also basically forget she existed in the latter half of the game, but not her fault.

There's a really godlike game inside Zestiria that was absolutely fucked by Baba doing everything wrong

Such a pity, there's good material to work with

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/warren-to-think-through-her-future-top-aide-says/2020/03/04/bf7d20ca-5e38-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html

Leftwing Voltron inc?

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I don't want to get into the whole healthcare argument again, but my point wasn't "it's fine for me so it has no problems." I do think that the American healthcare system has huge problems. The point I was trying to make was that it's not uniformly trash for everybody, and tearing the whole system down and replacing it is a huge risk for many people. I know a lot of you disagree, but I think we can fix most of the issues with the American healthcare system *without* taking the drastic step of risking what people currently have.

If I knew by word of God that a single payer system was guaranteed to work exactly as advertised with a painless transition I wouldn't be opposed. The issue is that I do not believe that that's anywhere close to being guaranteed.

Serious question coming from an outsider: how could it possibly be worse than what you have rn? I work for JP Morgan and have literally the best coverage my country (Argentina) can offer. Currently, I'm getting a dental implant because one of my teeth broke and it comes out to about 200 dollars. Doesn't the same thing cost at least ten times as much over there? How can that be acceptable, considering my nation is a flaming trashheap and yours is the most powerful one in the world?

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Uh there is no way LA county is only 7 delegates. That is going to be something like 14 congressional districts. More like 70 delegates.

Yes, LA county has a bigger population than Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming combined.

In that case we'd be looking at 50 delegates for Bernie and 20 for Uncle Joe. It'd be...ugly. Like hellllla ugly. The bottom line is Cali really isn't going to be good for Biden. I think his max is gonna be like, +20 and his floor is bad enough that if Bernie gets Warren's delegates he flat out is in the lead. It is a very very scary situation for the sundowning old man.

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One last post for some context on how I reached that final number: If we look at LA and assume its percentages more or less hold, Bernie gets 5 delegates there and Biden 2 (no way LA is less than 7 dem delegates). Let's say San Fran is 6 delegates, Bernie gets 4 to Biden's 2 there. Suppose Fresno is a 5 delegate location, that's a 3:2 split. Basically Bernie's default for most of Cali is between 75% and 66% of all delegates, with a low of 50%. The reason I feel so confident on Bernie is that ending 10 delegates behind is absolutely nothing when you remember he was 200 behind at this point vs Hillary. Biden is not Hillary and no amount of $$$ can prop that up. You have to really, really, REALLY bank on late deciders continuing to go hard for him and that's a big stretch IMO. Bernie has reasons to rise, and Joe has reasons to fall. That is all.

EDIT: Also, Rock, Tony, I feel like this nerdy math is honestly a better use of both y'all's time than getting mad at each other. Penny for your thoughts on this?

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Bernies still gonna be behind. Hes beating Biden by around 9 points last I checked, and that could very well shrink a bit as Election Day postmarked mail in ballots are counted (I would guess that the extreme swing to Biden in the last few days will more than compensate for young people being more likely to send in ballots later). Even if it doesnt, Biden+Bernie should continue to climb at the expense of other candidates, making the 9 point spread lead to less of a delegate disparity.

I guess Ill throw down a final CA prediction just for the hell of it: +6 Bernie

Not how it works. If you win by a % that is between 6 and 9, you siphon extra delegates from the loser. That's what really matters in Cali -- getting the 'round-up' values, not specifically winning by more (though of course, win big enough and that's even better).

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So quick note on how this works. Taking something like say, this map...

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/california/

Let's suppose Del Norte County is a 4 delegate district. As Bernie and Biden went 59-41, Bernie gets three delegates there, because his first decimal is 9. In a place like Amador that Biden won close, they go 2-2. The same would go for someplace like Placer. The net result is the 2:1 proportion is pretty likely to hold for the remaining unpledged delegates, at a quick glance and guesstimate. Assigning delegates like that, Bernie cuts the gap down to like...+10 Joe, I think? So yeah, it evens up the score significantly. If the delegates break more favorably towards him, he can tie or even get a slim lead. The bottom line is the race is currently a dead heat, so the remaining states matter a lot. If Biden falls back down to earth with late deciders, Bernie is going to beat him overall.

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Finally found the explanation of how Cali divides its delegates:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/29/california-presidential-primary-delegate-math/

Somebody find me a map of how many delegates each county gets and I will tell you exactly how many congressional delegates Bernie gets vs Biden.

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numbers absolutely do point that way. just gotta look at the states still in this.
eyeball test absolutely does point that way. just gotta look at the states still in this.
spotlight is more questionable, sure.
if you think being Moderate Voltron isn't favoring him, you're just being delusional and refusing to accept yesterday. the man's biggest issue was financing and that's done.

like it's one thing to have hope for the guy and another to act like he's the favorite and you're doing the latter for some reason.

Sox beat me to it here. The lineup is favorable to Bernie which lets him dispel the illusion of 'omg he losttttt' that might be lingering til Cali's done being counted. He has to have several underperformances to lose cleanly, when record turnouts suggest he has more to gain than lose.

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Wanglicious posted...

bernie ain't getting the midwest, he ain't getting the south, he's probably not getting that much of the northeast either considering he lost Mass so badly out of nowhere.

but dead? nah.

Don't be so certain about that Wang. The numbers don't point that way, the eyeball test doesn't point that way, and most notably, the fact Biden is getting chucked into the spotlight doesn't point that way. Being the core of the centrist hydra doesn't favor him. He's traditionally lost favorability when he's been shone a light on.

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red sox 777 posted...

Kanz, do you know how the delegates for congressional districts are allocated? Is it still proportional within the district?

It is. Currently seeing if I can find per-district percentages for each candidate.

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Overall tally:

Biden: 40 + 17 + 65 + 9 + 11 + 36 + 38 + 21 + 29 + 81 + 1 + 5 + 66 + 39 + 9 + 6 = 473

Bernie: 7 + 9 + 35 + 20 + 9 + 29 + 26 + 13 + 15 + 72 + 9 + 11 + 31 + 15 + 24 + 9 + 12 = 346

This is pre Cali. After Cali's current results, we arrive at +65 Biden. Consider that this is afaik mostly the proportional delegates...so now we have to see what the district wins add up to. So yes, Bernie overcoming is pretty likely because Cali broke stupidly lopsidedly for him.

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Wanglicious posted...

as others have told you already kan, super tuesday is biden at his worst. if you're under the impression cali is winner take all don't be either, they'll split it and probably get a similar amount in the end. maybe bernie gets a little more at the end of super tuesday, sure, but biden will be ahead on overall delegates - if not on his own then out of the ones Pete and Bloomberg give him.

that said going forward the problem is in the 10 states biden won. look at the map.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-super-tuesday-primary-election.html

the upcoming races are expected to go HARD for him and most will not swing bernie's way. barring any unforeseen circumstances, biden's the nom.

About that...

https://twitter.com/bern_identity/status/1235270052703645697

No, don't expect the numbers to break similarly. Cali is weird as shit.

Finally at home. You guys chew on that whack distribution method while I check the numbers.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Bernie is down by a lot more than 65 outside of Cali last time I checked

Strongly recommend a recheck. The numbers point towards a victory. I'm ten minutes from home, gimme a bit to get on my desktop and crunch em.

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@KamikazePotato
@ChaosTonyV4
@MichelBollinger

Tagging the people I know need to see this. Do not give in. Do not lose hope. Do not believe the lies the media is trying to tell you. Y'all have seen too many contests to not believe in an ASV comeback. Spread the word and get as many sad people motivated as you can. Bernie win and he just needs New York to clinch this.

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So Bernie is 65 delegates down outside Cali.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/226771945897590785/684851559762362403/unknown.png

President Bernie Sanders, y'all. He's won Super Tuesday unless you think Biden can gain in Cali.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

The rationalizing ITT is glorious

Does anyone maybe think that Bernie lost not because he sucks to most people who don't live inside your commie ignorant hate bubbles?

Nicely shook conservative Stan

Lovin dis tbqh


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HeroicCrono posted...

I'm reading that Hillary won TX over Bernie by 32, not 60. So yes, she did a lot better but not like Link to Alucard better.

I said in points. As in, 0.5% percentage shifts in a 1v1. If we look at pure head to head difference Biden annd Bernie went 53-47 in TX.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Obviously there's a chance but I'm not optimistic about it either. I think Biden is going to perform decently well from here on out, even in NY.

Decently well doesn't do it. Hillary got. 57% on NY and it was her home turf. What odds would you bet on for him hitting 50%? One in five? One in six? Less? He's not HRC and he needs that kind of performance.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Right but this was a 4-way and 2016 was a 2-way

Irrelevant. Link still did Link things in 4ways. Give Biden a Draven split on both also-rans (2:1) and he still doesn't do what Hillary did. Empirically, the numbers don't back it up. Does the eyeball test of not winning a primary in 30 years back it up to at least give you something to work with?

Put it this way: Bernie just has to win NY and the shit he did in '16 and locks up the majority. Are you certain he can't do that with AOC stumping for him?

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Yeah I think 2016 Bernie benefitted a lot from Not Being Hillary. Gonna need to see the xstats but Biden just looks stronger.

He does not. If you want x-stats in a soundbyte, Hillary ran up a 60 point difference in TX. Biden got 6 points. Find me a single instance in our contests where doing an order of magnitude worse = stronger?

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So uh, guys

Am I going crazy or do projections point at a Bernie win if the current results hold?

Like...look at this vs the 2016 primaries. Hillary won that 55-43 and she nearly doubled Bernie in TX and won Cali. Is there a reason Centrist Voltron would outdo HRC given that context?

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Though people talk about Pokemon snubs, so what if Fate/Grand Order got replaced with Pokmon Go? Just saying.

That'd be tragic, considering for better r worse fgo is the absolute best mobile gaming can offer. If there had to be one gacha game in this bracket, it was the right choice.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Sounds like a lot of people here are throwing in the towel!

People aren't robots. They're allowed to lose hope for a while. You want to frame this as the end of history, and unfortunately, Seph, history doesn't end. It just keeps on going.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Voters just rejected extreme Leftism in rousing fashion. Socialism in the US is dead.

:)

You wish. Socialism dies when people stop fighting, not when the establishment says it does.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

There is no next time. We are always fighting every day for better lives. We vote locally. We make a difference locally. We make a difference in state elections. A Biden presidency means more power for the progressive in the house and senate than if Trump is a president. Top of ticket isn't all that matters. And unfortunately the voters are speaking. So let's go from a 1 to a 4 and then maybe it'll be easier to get to a 10 some time.

We've had a lot of disagreements before, Chris, but I wanted to say that this post makes me gain newfound respect for you, because it's very true and very right. There are no sweeping exits or offstage lines to make people feel better. There is no sudden, miraculous win. There is only a slow, grueling march to progress. It's better to hope and be betrayed than to never dare to dream nor fight. Keeping the course is what matters, not any individual success or setback.

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Xiahou Shake posted...

Not even sure what this is referring to since FF, KH, Octopath, Bravely etc etc are all stacked with super well-known VAs and this is really the first big push they've made for fresh talent.

Wasn't Ray Chase an unknown for ff15?

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Wanglicious posted...

counterpoint: warren is just hedging her bets because if that poll is true on second choices she may well be 50/50 or 60/40 bernie/biden second choice. whatever the answer is, she's got a significant enough number to force a deal if she gets 15% in a couple key states.

and then there's bloomberg.
technically hurting biden in the polls but really just there to force a brokered convention and make deals along the way.

The problem is $$$$. Has a broke candidate played kingmaker before in recent memory?

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

To be honest I want the war for the party to be as simple as possible, so I am OK with this.

Warren I guess is just doing to do Warren things.

Warren is concerning because there's a non-0 chance she LFFs Bernie harder than she does Centrist Voltron. Hopefully that's not the case and her pivot into full on succ means she sings Biden more though.

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Gonna be an interesting super Tuesday, eh? How do you guys project Texas' impact if Bernie dismantles the opposition there?

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Sure, why not?

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Serious answer: It's a combination of TLJ discarding the absolutely unworkable and creatively bankrupt foundation of TFA (which grognards hated, because they're afraid of change), requiring a rewatch or two to see what it's trying to do because it's pretty subtle and the flaws borne of having to shed a creaky foundation stick out, and a lot of alt-right brigadeering. As a counterpoint to that overlong video above, let me post one that talks about why it was hated, and what it does well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2cBTLsWiDg

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Disco Elysium

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Y'all, I think this might be the most incompetent rig attempt since George Romero. What do you guys think?

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P sure it's either a Mick Gordon jam or the Shadowbringers main theme

This topic is full of great music tho, stay unironically classy board 8

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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Mario Kart doesn't start off as hot as most titles, but it just never dies off. It sells a decent number of copies every month into eternity.

So would you say slow and steady wins the race then?

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You guys don't remember the Powerhouse riff? I'm surprised! It's so iconic I just about jumped out of my chair the first time I heard it come up.

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