Lurker > Kotetsu534

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Topic~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 18 feat. Round 2 Division 2
Kotetsu534
04/12/20 2:00:42 PM
#8
MAX on Mass Effect 2, Horizon, DOOM and Bloodborne

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1339
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:37:10 PM
#311
LeonhartFour posted...
And Vivi/Ganondorf!

Ah, how could I forget the third wheel in Vivi's moment of glory!

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1339
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:35:48 PM
#305
squexa posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6951-best-of-2017-indies

This poll definitely makes Cuphead look pretty good after today's match

Make your time, GTAV!

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TopicHow the hell did Celeste lose?
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:31:01 PM
#3
Indeed! The only indie I have emotional investment in and of course it flops a winnable match while others write themselves in as contest stars.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1339
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:27:00 PM
#270
LeonhartFour posted...
come on FFXV

you can't deprive us of a Zelda/FF in a contest for the first time since...ever, maybe?

Excluding "Years", yes (the Zelda/FF match in the insanity that was 2013 being Seph/Midna in R1).

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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:18:10 PM
#73
If games from major publishers are really weak they can of course lose to the stronger indies. Is FFXV that weak? Probably not. It's hard for me to imagine a game that won the GOTY 4 years ago falling that far.

Yes, yes it is.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1339
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:17:07 PM
#228
Stick a fork in Sekiro, but Hollow Knight's taking over.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1339
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:06:24 PM
#165
FFXV had a really solid last two minutes. Indies normally start pretty strong...

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1339
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 8:02:08 PM
#141
DQ has opened with Kasizzle and stunned Bastion!

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1339
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 7:59:15 PM
#132
This feels like the real start of the contest to me!

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TopicGame of the Decade 2 Oracle Challenge - Round 2 Divisions 1-6
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 7:58:33 PM
#78
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 79%
Final Fantasy XV - 62.5%

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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 7:32:49 PM
#63
LeonhartFour posted...
the more the indies underwhelm in matches we think they should win the less confidence I have in something like Hollow Knight

I don't think any indie game in round 1 beat a game that would beat FFXV

I agree. I really think the likely explanation for most indie success so far is "their opponents really sucked". Dragon's Dogma was probably weak years ago and is now completely forgotten (I do like that its name rhymes with Ghetto Gospel...). DA:I similarly - it probably just sucks, it's precisely the kind of low tier western game that isn't going to retain strength (if freakin' Uncharted, with somewhat memorable characters, can't hold up over the years, how is 2nd tier Bioware going to manage it?). Destiny would lose to damn near anything, and Stardew Valley might be the #1 indie. XCOM2? Completely not our thing (and I respect Cuphead as a bit of an exception). Tales of Berseria? Probably weaker by a good step than Vesperia, and it lost easily to Borderlands 10 years ago. If only it had a Switch release...

If games from major publishers are really weak they can of course lose to the stronger indies. Is FFXV that weak? Probably not. It's hard for me to imagine a game that won the GOTY 4 years ago falling that far.

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TopicHow familiar are you with Celeste?
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 4:43:50 PM
#47
Corrik7 posted...
I never played Rayman Origins. Only Legends.

Seriously, play Origins. At least if you actually like Rayman's platforming and normal levels (rather than the weird challenges and multiplater stuff Legends had).

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TopicGame of the Decade 2 Oracle Challenge - Round 2 Divisions 1-6
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 12:39:44 PM
#41
Shovel Knight - 52%

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TopicGame of the Decade 2 Oracle Challenge - Round 2 Divisions 1-6
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 12:39:12 PM
#40
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 78%
Final Fantasy XV - 56%
Monster Hunter: World - 55%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 70%

Mass Effect 2 - 57.55%
Horizon Zero Dawn - 57%
Resident Evil 2 - 57%
Bloodborne - 53%

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 63%
Marvel's Spider-Man - 56%
-Shovel Knight - 52%
Super Mario Odyssey - 65%

Grand Theft Auto V - 54%
Persona 4 Golden - 54%
Xenoblade Chronicles - 70%
Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 66%

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 69%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 68%
Dark Souls III - 56%
God of War - 78%

Persona 5 - 67%
Super Meat Boy - 53%
Portal 2 - 60%
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 61%

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TopicGame of the Decade 2 Oracle Challenge Discussion + Team Sign-Up Topic
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 12:30:44 PM
#216
I once managed to stay top 10 for about half of round one when I had the time to do a ton of research into old polls and extrapolate stats. I'm pretty sure that's what guys like lefty, Moltar and creativename are doing (although at this point they probably have so much experience they can guess more accurately than the rest of us).

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Topicoh hell yeah ffvii is on switch (playthrough?)
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 12:27:26 PM
#218
Cloud > Aerith >> Red XIII > Barret > Tifa >> Yuffie > Vincent > Cid > Cait Sith

Based purely on the original FFVII.

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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 10:53:58 AM
#35
Augh my precious double points

I am sorry, but it is for the Guest.

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Topic~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 17 feat. Round 2 Division 1
Kotetsu534
04/11/20 10:04:48 AM
#4
MAX on Halo, FFXV, Monster Hunter World and Dragon Quest XI

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 10:34:38 PM
#289
A bit of a metaphor for Rayman the series... you think it's dead and then unexpectedly it's very much alive!

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 8:57:04 PM
#233
KamikazePotato posted...
Also I haven't been keeping track, but going from a 48% update to a 64% update in ten minutes has to be one of the biggest swings in the contest

Diablo 3/VLR had some giant swings e.g. 22:35:05 Diablo takes with 54.4%, 22:45:05 Diablo takes with 73.21%.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 8:54:49 PM
#231
Madeleine found those strawberries I guess...

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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 8:53:42 PM
#19
There's just too much absolute crap for interesting matches in R1 (and even the interesting matches we have had have been fodderfests other than DMC5/DKCTF - Ori/DA:I, UT/Octopath, TWD/Bastion, DBZF/RL, now Celeste/Rayman). It doesn't help that some games that would have had at least tad of strength - e.g. Pokemon Sun/Moon (and other versions!), Zelda Skyward Sword, Smash for Wii U, Mario 3D World, God of War 3, FFXIII (don't lol too hard, it would beat half this bracket!), Phoenix Wright didn't make it in.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 8:13:54 PM
#152
Kind of sad about this match - I actually like Rayman, but it should have been Origins here, not Legends!

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 8:11:05 PM
#138
Pokemon fell a lot on that update.

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Topic~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 16 feat. Pokemon (-54), NieR (-36)
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 8:05:46 PM
#29
Indies built me up and now they're gonna let me down. Oh well, been fun.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 8:04:54 PM
#116
Celeste almost lost its lead but now seems to be gaining...

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Topic~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 16 feat. Pokemon (-54), NieR (-36)
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 6:02:07 PM
#20
That was a parlay for the record.

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Topic16% voted subnaucia(?) Against skyrim
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 5:10:12 PM
#3
I agree. It should really have won by more.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1338
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 5:06:30 PM
#87
Nier might well flop to be honest. It's been in one poll and it got rolled by Horizon (which did murder Fortnite, but so could a lot of games).

Edit: Oh it was also in a poll next year with its XB1 release... nothing too strong from it there either (extrapolated it got 38% on RDR2) although I wouldn't judge re-release polls too much.

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Topic* GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part One *
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 5:02:31 PM
#177
Oh wait, it's Persona 4 Golden I have in that round! Will edit.

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TopicAnagram ranks the playable Persona cast* with exactly 20 words each (spoilers)
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 5:00:31 PM
#45
I loved Yukari being such a b**** to Junpei, because half the time he deserved it and all of the time his reactions were hilarious. I will say I never had any real sense that the P3 characters were actually friends at all (other than perhaps Mitsuru and Akihiko).

Yukiko best character.

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Topic* GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part One *
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 4:48:24 PM
#173
TRE and I have a pretty cool direct elimination fight coming up in R2. We only have 4 different picks from now to the end up the contest and they are all in R2. Currently I am one point up. The differences are:

TRE has Sekiro, I have MonHun.
TRE has Shovel Knight, I have Undertale (lol).
TRE has Read Dead Redemption, I have Xenoblade Chronicles.
TRE has Sonic Mania, I have Super Meat Boy.

So I need to win 2 of the 3 where I have a chance above to survive (I don't think it makes any difference if Shovel Knight wins or loses).

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TopicGame of the Decade 2 Oracle Challenge - Round 1 Divisions 7-8
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 4:29:26 PM
#106
Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version - 80%
Celeste - 60%
Divinity: Original Sin II - 69%
NieR: Automata - 64%

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Topic~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 16 feat. Pokemon (-54), NieR (-36)
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 4:27:46 PM
#16
MAX on Bayonetta 2, Pokemon, Divinity and Celeste

  1. Pokemon will kill Night in the Woods. It lost to Edith Finch and we saw what FFXV did to it.
  2. Bayo 1 held up to ALBW fairly well so Bayo 2 (albeit weaker) should hold up alright to Nier.
  3. Hearthstone got 9% on OoT in 2015, in a year when OoT was a bit off and HS's reputation was probably quite a bit stronger. It'll get killed by anything the site recognises... and it probably recognises Divinity 2?
  4. Rayman Legends lost to Diablo 3 in its polls and its brand hasn't gone anywhere good in the last half-decade. Celeste beat Dead Cells when it wasn't sharing polls with SSBU and has that "recent cool indie on the Switch" vibe going for it. (Also silly people nominated the wrong Rayman! Origins was a way better game, although I still think it would lose here.)

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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
Kotetsu534
04/10/20 7:19:50 AM
#489
Did my score not get counted because it wasn't submitted on time?

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1337 *leet edition*
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 8:25:36 PM
#408
That match will never be forgotten by those of us that play the spread betting game. It chased the spread down for pretty much the whole of the last 18 hours of the poll then sat right on it for the last three hours. Couldn't scrip that!

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1337 *leet edition*
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 8:11:43 PM
#366
Skyrim is waking up. Western game board votes will always suck.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1337 *leet edition*
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 8:04:16 PM
#345
Would just caveat that some of the swings from the early vote have been massive in this contest... but this looks dire for Skyrim.

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Topic~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 15 feat. Skyrim (-72), FFXIV(-38)
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 7:59:07 PM
#33
Change

Cancel all bets!

HALF on Skyrim and Journey parlay
33% on Mario Kart 8

If TLOU can get 82% on CK2, maybe Skyrim can go 4 points higher on a game that should be weaker or about the same... if it misses, it'll be by <2 points.

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Topic~Game of the Decade Spread Betting~ Results/Discussion
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 7:47:10 PM
#95
I'm interpreting this rule:

If you bet on BotW, it would have to beat TOW by 40%, meaning it would have to get at least 70% of the vote (70-30 = 40). If you bet on TOW (+40) it needs to score at least 30.01% of the vote (69.99 - 30.01 = 39.98) to keep the difference in percentage, or spread, within 40 points.

I've played this game a few times over the years - even won it once! - and never have I seen a scenario where a ton of money has been on the line with such a close spread so late on that we're discussing this.

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Topic~Game of the Decade Spread Betting~ Results/Discussion
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 7:42:23 PM
#93
Dead on the spread means the winner covers (the gap would be exactly 38 points).

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Topic~Game of the Decade Spread Betting~ Results/Discussion
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 7:37:29 PM
#91
This is not a pleasurable experience.

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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 7:09:34 PM
#462
I wish The Last of Us 2 was in the poll today - unfortunate it keeps getting delayed!

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Topic~GotD10s Spread Betting~ Day 15 feat. Skyrim (-72), FFXIV(-38)
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 5:32:30 PM
#16
Oh why not...

HALF on Subnautica > 14%

(In addition to the above bet. 0% chance of catching up playing safe when peeps are so far ahead.)

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Topic~Game of the Decade Spread Betting~ Results/Discussion
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 4:18:37 PM
#88
My cup runneth over! 69 achieved!

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TopicGame of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 4:17:18 PM
#448
FFIX was a local multiplayer game!

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Topic~Game of the Decade Spread Betting~ Results/Discussion
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 3:57:01 PM
#87
It's been between 68.9 and 69 for over an hour. There's a joke there about a long build up to a climax...

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TopicGame of the Decade 2 Oracle Challenge - Round 1 Divisions 7-8
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 2:18:33 PM
#64
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 84.9%
Journey - 66%
Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn - 67.33%
Mario Kart 8 - 57%

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Topic~Game of the Decade Spread Betting~ Results/Discussion
Kotetsu534
04/09/20 1:41:24 PM
#86
It looks like it's gonna do it. Over the past 5 hours it's gone from 67.64% to 68.85%! If it does this is one of the all time great Spread chases. From 12 points down at the freeze, 4 points down after the first hour...

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