Lurker > LusterSoldier

If the second bonus match really is Skyrim/Ultimate, there would be no need for pic submissions because Allen can re-use the existing submissions for both games.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

I may have uncovered potential evidence that we could be getting 2 bonus matches later today. Using the voting form on the homepage that is used to vote in the current match, I could change the poll ID to a later poll that is not yet active and seeing what message I get when trying to vote in a poll that isn't active yet. Poll 8090, 8091, and 8092 returned the message "This poll is not currently active. Refresh the GameFAQs home page to see the current poll." which implies that future polls with those poll IDs currently exist in the database. Poll 8093 actually returned the message "An invalid poll was selected." which means no poll currently exists in the database with that specific poll ID.

The assumption is that poll 8092 is most likely tomorrow's regular poll, with 8090 and 8091 being the bonus matches.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

I sent in a guest write-up for this match just so there's at least one write-up for the guest spot. If someone else happened to send in a guest write-up before I did, then my write-up can be turned into an unofficial guest write-up and posted with the rest of the write-ups.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Forgot to make a pick for the finals, even though it would have been BotW.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

We don't know yet. Only @Master_Moltar can confirm this. However, the safe option would be to send in a write-up just to be safe. We also have just BotW/Majora as a confirmed bonus match, with no word on whether Skyrim/Ultimate will be happening. I suspect Allen will give us just one bonus match, but you can send in a write-up for Skyrim/Ultimate if you really want to prepare in the event that match does happen.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The registered user bonus is boosting BotW quite significantly here. If the results were based on just the raw votes, BotW would only have 56.01%. It's currently sitting at 57.00% once the registered user bonus is factored in.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Team Rocket Elite posted...

I do not. Luster Soldier told me to put that up for safety so I did.

Yeah, I suggested including Skyrim/Ultimate just to be safe, in the event it does happen as a bonus match. If that match does happen, we'll at least have predictions on record to calculate a board consensus for the match.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Yeah, we are not be asked for pics for Skyrim vs. Ultimate, though I suppose Allen technically wouldn't need us to since he's already got plenty from the previous matches.

Indeed, Allen could simply reuse the pics for Skyrim and Ultimate from the matches where they were officially eliminated from the contest.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Mario Odyssey being behind Galaxy 2 in the x-stats is clearly because it was behind 2 layers of SFF. By the time any adjustments are made, I imagine Mario Odyssey ends up slightly ahead of Galaxy 2.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Registered Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4880 (53.90%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 4173 (46.10%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4691 (58.10%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 3383 (41.90%)

Despite both being WRPGs, Skyrim was heavily favored by registered users by slightly more than 4% over the anonymous users. Brackets can't fully explain this as Witcher had a higher prediction percentage than Skyrim in the round prior to meeting up here. At best, the main bracket contest was pretty evenly split between both games.

If the registered user bonus is used for the bonus match, then I'll be able to provide registered/anonymous user splits for the bonus matches. I have a way of calculating this even without publicly listed stats on the official stats page.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

I have one account on the leaderboard right now which did not pick BotW, so it would drop off if Witcher doesn't rally its way to a win today.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Team Rocket Elite posted...

10 users fell off the Second Chance Top 50. Mexicola, Chansey, TheMightyPeanut, HeroicSpiderPig, Jesse_Custer, Steiner, TienLen, PunkRockGiik, Denzokuken and BigK1016 didn't quite make it to the pre-finals Top 50.

And my Chansey account only fell off because I made a mistake and picked the wrong winner. I must have moved the slider in the wrong direction and didn't realize the mistake during the bracket entry period. So that likely ends any chance of getting one of my accounts to finish on the leaderboard unless Witcher gets a successful rally to win the contest.

Without that mistake, my Chansey account would have scored a 48 on yesterday's match for a total score of 656 and a placement of either 22nd or 23rd on the Second Chance leaderboard.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 52.45%
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 53.57%
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

SBAllen posted...

You guys vote too fast.

Since you're here, please give us Skyrim vs. Smash Ultimate tomorrow night as a second bonus match. Having a third place match between the semifinal losers is a very reasonable idea for a bonus match. We don't really need any other bonus matches beyond that one and the contest winner vs. Majora's Mask.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Other - Best. Series. Ever. II
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

With BotW/Majora's Mask confirmed as a bonus match, I guess the Crew members can start working on their write-ups for that match. And we'll need a guest for that match too.

Skyrim/Ultimate is still up in the air at this point as nothing has been confirmed regarding that match.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

2nd vote, 1st for The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

I have no chance of catching up to Aprosenf unless by some chance there are 2 bonus matches tomorrow and I get the first vote in both of them. So far, we have just one confirmed bonus match after the final (contest winner vs. Majora's Mask). The poll ID of the bonus match is currently unknown right now since it would fall outside of the poll ID range reserved for the regular contest matches. My guess is that the bonus match will be poll 8090 as tomorrow's regular poll will be poll 8089.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

@Team_Rocket_Elite

You might want to get a Oracle Challenge prediction topic set up for the potential bonus matches we could get after the final. We do have the contest winner vs. Majora's Mask confirmed at this point (via a feedback ticket response), but you may also want to plan ahead and include Skyrim vs. Smash Ultimate as an alternative match to accept predictions for. Other bonus match ideas beyond these two seem rather unlikely.

Normally bonus matches don't count towards the actual Oracle Challenge, except for the one time it did back in 2011. I imagine if there's enough heads up notice from Allen of an actual concrete bonus match confirmation, it could be counted towards the Oracle Challenge. Even if they don't get counted towards the Oracle Challenge, just being able to get a board consensus for these matches is interesting to see.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Witcher/Skyrim is on track to get lower vote totals than BotW/Smash Ultimate despite that BotW match being a clear case of SFF. Generally, SFF matches tend to get lower vote totals compared to non-SFF matches. I guess this is a testament to BotW's strength and thus its ability to be highly effective at drawing in votes.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

61% in my Second Chance bracket.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

+3 Super Mario Maker 2
+2 Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
+1 VVVVVV
-1 Final Fantasy XV
-2 Detroit: Become Human
-3 Dragon's Dogma
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

MechanicalWall posted...

It's actually crazy how much Europe is propping up Witcher here. Despite being over 55 in the overall poll, it's only at 51.08 in the US.

Neither of these games really appeal to the Asian countries, yet Witcher is being favored much more heavily over Skyrim in Asia.

There's also the possibility that we're seeing higher than normal turnout from Europe today, but I can't determine this due to the lack of continent-level voting results (including total votes from each continent). Back when we could see the total number of votes from each continent, Europe was capable of maxing out at about 18-19% of the total votes so today's match may be on this level of turnout or even higher.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

If we end up getting bonus matches after the final, I would prefer if the registered user bonus is in effect for those matches. Even though they aren't officially part of the contest, it's good to be consistent with the rest of the contest.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

_SecretSquirrel posted...

To uphold the tradition of GotD 2010's bonus match, Link faces off with a timely opponent. COVID-19.

That's one of the funniest ideas for a bonus match. It's almost like the exact opposite of Link/Santa Claus. Where as Santa Claus put up an amazing performance against Link on Christmas Eve, I expect COVID-19 to put up a performance that makes it look even weaker than Chester.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Cool, I don't even have a Gigantamax Pikachu since I never got Pokemon Let's Go. Even if I did get that game, it would have been Eevee version which would only allow me to get Gigantamax Eevee.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

squexa posted...

Winner vs MM just makes thematic sense for a bonus match. I'd be down if we get the runner's up in a match as well (Loser vs Brawl) since I doubt we'll ever see Brawl in a contest again.

I actually never considered the loser of the final vs. Brawl as an idea for a bonus match. With that suggestion, we have 3 solid bonus match suggestions with room for one more match to give us a full slate of 4 bonus matches.

As it stands right now, our current bonus match suggestions:

Breath of the Wild vs. Majora's Mask
The Witcher 3 vs. Brawl
Smash Ultimate vs. Skyrim

The only other idea I can come up with for a bonus match is Persona 5 vs. FFX for a battle between the top JRPGs of the 2000s and 2010s.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Sharinnegan posted...

But Majora would also just be an SFF match

Zelda vs Zelda isnt gonna give us any meaningful numbers.

Majora and BotW are a lot closer in strength compared to OoT and BotW, so I would expect little to no SFF here.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Registered Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6316 (66.84%)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 3133 (33.16%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5571 (69.93%)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 2395 (30.07%)

Smash Ultimate was favored by registered users by about 3%. BotW was not really expected to do better with registered users cause we are more likely to vote against Zelda games (and Link) if they are seen as the clear favorite to win the contest. It's also quite impressive that BotW exceeded the percentage it got against Mario Odyssey directly in the 2017 GotY polls despite being hurt by the registered user bonus here. Without the registered user bonus, BotW gets 68.26% instead of 67.76%.

Despite being an SFF match, the vote totals came very close to setting a record for highest vote totals recorded after the contest returned from the break. This match got only slightly less than the Witcher/Persona and DS/Skyrim match day.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Leonhart4 posted...

Eh, bonus matches have never "counted" for Crew points, if I remember right. Participating in them is optional.

This is true. They never counted for the Oracle either, except for that one time in 2011 where it did count.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

davidponte posted...

Looks like we're getting 55/45 anyway

I doubt it. This might get to 53%, but I think 55% is out of reach.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

13th vote, 8th for The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Got screwed over by a much later match start compared to usual. The match started at some point between 8:00:11 PM and 8:00:15 PM.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 55.85%
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Team Rocket Elite posted...

IIRC you used to believe that games that came out later in the year had the advantage in GotY polls. Do you not feel that way anymore?

That was seen as a popular theory for many years. Whatever benefit a game gets from coming out later in the year (being more relevant and talked about) is balanced out by the lower playrate that the game has when the GotY polls are in progress. Judging from some of the results in this contest, a lot of really well-liked games weren't quite as strong as we hoped. This could stem from playrate issues and would clearly indicate that playrate is the most important aspect in determining game strength. A game with a high playrate has a solid foundation to be a potentially strong game. Everything else (such as nostalgia and game popularity) works off the playrate.

Late year releases also have far less time for the fans of the game to shift their opinion of the game closer to the negative side before the GotY polls begin. Such a thing was likely a big reason why KH3 couldn't make it into the GotY polls, as it was a January release and fans had more time to feel a sense of disappointment from what the game had to offer. GotY winners usually being late year releases may reflect that a lot of high profile releases typically release in the September to November time period.

Mass Effect 2 and Resident Evil 2 won GotY in years where they came out in January. The Witcher 3 came out in May, and produced the largest win by percentage in a 1v1 GotY poll. And of course, there's BotW's huge win in 2017. There have been more cases of early year games winning GotY on this site than I first thought.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

+3 Mario Kart 8
+2 Mass Effect 2
+1 Red Dead Redemption
-1 Death Stranding
-2 Hotline Miami
-3 Dragon Age: Inquisition
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 59.31%
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

MetalmindStats posted...

I don't think that God of War GotY result should be taken at face value. For one thing, lesser games in GotY polls here tend to die on the vine, so I'm not surprised these stats project it 10% lower on RDR2. More importantly, the very GotY title is one with a certain prestige, and casually invested users who had maybe only played Smash Ultimate from 2018 likely didn't feel equipped to judge the GotY and skipped the polls altogether.

Another possible explanation for God of War doing so well on Smash Ultimate in the GotY polls is because God of War came out much earlier in the year, and more people had time to play it compared to Smash Ultimate which only came out a month earlier. God of War may have had a playrate advantage (not in terms of actual playrate) as the gap in playrate between the 2 games was a lot smaller. After that GotY poll happened, Smash Ultimate would have widened its playrate advantage over God of War.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Persona 5
Registered Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 5249 (57.54%)
Persona 5 - 3874 (42.46%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4711 (54.42%)
Persona 5 - 3946 (45.58%)

Dark Souls vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Registered Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 4345 (47.61%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 4781 (52.39%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Dark Souls - 4042 (46.70%)
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 4614 (53.30%)

The Witcher 3 did around 3% better with registered users, though that difference is likely tainted by rallies. The Persona 5 rallies appeared to be more effective than the Dark Souls rallies, but they only brought in an estimated total of about 200 to 600 extra votes. This match day wasn't even the highest anonymous user vote totals we've gotten since the contest returned from the break.

Dark Souls does around 1% better with registered users, as well as proving that the Dark Souls rallies had almost no impact on this match.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

Master Moltar posted...

though anyone that wants to can send me write-ups and I can post them with the rest of the crew as unofficial guests

We could also end up having bonus matches, so the crew members might want to plan ahead for those matches. The only real agreement among the board on the subject of bonus matches are BotW/Majora's Mask and Skyrim/Smash (third place match). There's still room for 2 more matches to be run as bonus matches along with those 2, but we'll likely know what they are ahead of time if Allen wants to accept match pictures for them.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 55.15%
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

ShortReplies posted...

Is it confirmed there is a bonus poll?
If so i would like Best Developer of the Decade.

We could always run that as a regular PotD while the bonus matches are in progress, or on the day after they end.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

LOLIAmAnAlt posted...

We need BotW v OoT

That's a rather boring bonus match because BotW has no shot against OoT. I'd rather have BotW try to prove its strength against a game it could potentially lose to.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

KamikazePotato posted...

The stats will actually be fairly easy to adjust if we get a Smash Bros vs Witcher 3 bonus match!

Skyrim/Smash is much more likely to happen over Witcher being in that match. Even then, this assumes there's no SFF in Witcher/Skyrim which is far more likely to happen than a Nintendo/Nintendo match.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

1st vote, 1st for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

https://i.imgur.com/UDwSeGe.png

Still alive in this contest. Today's match started later than average, with a start time of 8:00:10 PM EST. Start times have ranged from 8:00:04 PM to 8:00:13 PM and this one was closer to the upper end of start times.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

This feels a lot like Link/Mario 2010 with Link at 58.81% at the freeze, and then finished nearly 6% higher. Only difference here is that Smash's night vote is a lot worse than either Link or Mario.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 64.59%
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Mass Effect 2
Registered Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 6173 (68.37%)
Mass Effect 2 - 2856 (31.63%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5345 (68.25%)
Mass Effect 2 - 2487 (31.75%)

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. Xenoblade Chronicles
Registered Vote Result:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 5471 (60.59%)
Xenoblade Chronicles - 3559 (39.41%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 4495 (57.35%)
Xenoblade Chronicles - 3343 (42.65%)

Breath of the Wild has very similar results from both registered and anonymous users. One of the few times Breath of the Wild doesn't have a huge advantage with registered users.

Smash Ultimate does over 3% better with registered users.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Wasnt Majoras Mask vs some smash iteration nearly 50-50 a few years ago?

It was, but those games were nearly equal to begin with, though Brawl might have been slightly stronger indirectly. Majora's Mask won because it had a bandwagon heading into that match after barely beating FFX.

BotW and Smash Ultimate are much farther apart in natural strength than Majora's Mask and Brawl.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

INTERWEBUSER posted...

Oracle Challenge has nearly everyone predicting BOTW beating SSBU with 62-66%. Seriously? That high?

Because of SFF. I expect the final result to be in that range you mentioned.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - Luster Soldier

I'll sign-up for this one.
---

Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!