Lurker > transience

do you guys think that Spider Man beats Arkham City?

---

xyzzy

I feel like this contest more than most others has good and bad divisions. divisions 2, 4 and 8 are good, and divisions 3, 6 and especially 7 are bad.

---

xyzzy

Moltar is much nicer than I would have been there

---

xyzzy

I should start working on my Smash/Mario writeup now. it's gonna be a monster.

is the break between rounds 3 and 4?

---

xyzzy

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 67.44%
Super Mario Odyssey - 68.43%

---

xyzzy

oh yeah I forgot about that

well, it won't matter in the long run if it's 69% or 64% or whatever

---

xyzzy

let's go 80%

today's match seems feels awfully mario/crono 2003! let's go 50.05%

---

xyzzy

this is uncharted ground trend-wise, I wouldn't want to make any assumptions about this early vote

---

xyzzy

feeling like both RE2 and BB beat ME2

---

xyzzy

assuming no rally, it seems like RE2 would benefit the most from a shortened voting period since it's the heavy board favourite.

---

xyzzy

Mass Effect 2 - 62.45%
Bloodborne - 51.11%

---

xyzzy

I spent some time with azuarc's tool (great job!) and it seems like about 2/3rds of brackets are eliminated if you make some really safe assumptions about the bracket.

---

xyzzy

I think only I am? it's more that I don't believe in Horizon or Borderlands though.

---

xyzzy

damn you leon and your .04%

---

xyzzy

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 76.75%
Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 56.15%

---

xyzzy

oh good, I thought I'd be the low pick here by far

---

xyzzy

posting this here so it doesn't get lost -- I got tired of people screaming rally every single match so I grabbed some data.

https://i.imgur.com/JaxaMyl.png

I grabbed one match per day because they're essentially the same. I tried to pick the most interesting match of the day, but if none were available I just went with the most popular game.

---

xyzzy

skyrim/mario kart is going to have a hilarious swing next round

---

xyzzy

yeah, maybe it should be a couple spots higher. I'm struggling to care about division 7 because it seems like every game is underwhelming.

---

xyzzy

I'm gonna rank the r3 matches! this is by my interest level, not some objective closeness measure

1. GTA5 / Persona 4 Golden
2. Nier: Automata / Pokemon: HG/SS
3. Witcher 3 / Mario Galaxy 2
4. Resident Evil 2 / Bloodborne
5. Xenoblade / FE: Three Houses
6. Portal 2 / Red Dead Redemption 2
7. Dragon Quest XI / Monster Hunter World
8. God of War / Fallout: New Vegas
9. Skyrim / MK8
10. Persona 5 / Sonic Mania
11. Mass Effect 2 / Horizon: Zero Dawn
12. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate / Spider-Man
13. Breath of the Wild / Final Fantasy XV
14. Last of Us / Arkham City
15. Mario Odyssey / Shovel Knight
16. Dark Souls / MGS5

---

xyzzy

yeah, I'm leaning towards being a little too low here. I just don't trust last of us that much

---

xyzzy

yeah not mine. everyone in my family just jams on the button whenever anyone talks ever.

---

xyzzy

I've gotten my wife into Mario Odyssey finally this week. it took me years to get her to move on from her favourite game of all time... Spyro. Spyro and The Sims.

---

xyzzy

ask her how she feels about undertale and we'll find out if the relationship will work out long term

---

xyzzy

"wanna see my trend charts" is Leon's pickup line

and it works

---

xyzzy

how did she feel about the bloodborne rally and contest legitimacy

---

xyzzy

how are you getting married in like a month

---

xyzzy

yeah, I feel the same. I've poked at a couple of ys games and I still don't respect it as a contest entity.

---

xyzzy

same! I hate these stupid "midcarder" matchups in this bracket because I always get them wrong. I'm awful this contest

---

xyzzy

Batman is really throwing me for a loop. we probably go with it and crew curse it

---

xyzzy

I still have Odyssey in the semifinals this can still get worse yet

---

xyzzy

yeah that's the one I was comparing it to in my head

---

xyzzy

I'm trying to decide if picking Super Meat Boy qualifies as one of my worst picks ever or if this whole thing just seems bizarre

---

xyzzy

and 4! believe

---

xyzzy

oh yeah I forgot about how this site adopts games as their own when they get into smash

---

xyzzy

I think we'll see DQ for what it really is when it goes up against Zelda. right now I get the sense that people think it's way better than FF15 and I'm not so sure.


---

xyzzy

Shovel Knight went way below my expectations. you could point to Octopath being OK as an excuse I guess, but I dunno.

Bastion got kinda killed too.

---

xyzzy

RDR over GTA is a long standing take of mine that probably needs revising. I guess we'll find out in a week though!

---

xyzzy

I also think more of Animal Crossing than you do, so I see this as a decent RDR performance

I'm really not sure what to make of the GTA5/P4 matchup, and these indies bombing left and right don't make me feel like that 60% on Cuphead is super great? I don't know. that matchup fascinates me.

---

xyzzy

I think I'm putting Stardew as the top indie game..?

---

xyzzy

what if

okay hang with me here

what wins, black flag or super meat boy

---

xyzzy

yeah, while I don't think much of ys, I knew that slay the spire was bottom tier.

now that we've seen two rounds of most of our indie games, I guess we can tier them properly, huh? maybe we need games like ff15 and three houses to show us what they're worth before doing that though.

---

xyzzy

trust me I have been counting down the days!

---

xyzzy

I'm the only one actually afraid of Animal Crossing

---

xyzzy

Persona 5 - 70.04%
Super Meat Boy - 52.14%
Portal 2 - 61.26%
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 53.86%

---

xyzzy

the crew would have all flipped if SMB had put up better than 69% on a low to bottom tier indie game.

---

xyzzy

I can't imagine which way you'd go!

---

xyzzy

I'm very interested to see how the crew treats the animal crossing match tomorrow

it's days like today where I wish we didn't segregate Smash and Mario off to their own bracket. Witcher 3 over Smash would have been some real hype today.

---

xyzzy

darn. okay, no worries.

---

xyzzy

hey TRE,

I got busy today and forgot to enter my oracle picks. is it possible to take my Crew picks for today? I try not to post them until after they get posted for the Crew. it's not like they're good picks anyway (they never are)

if so:

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 74.41%
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 74.41%
Fallout: New Vegas - 54.56%
God of War - 78.67%


---

xyzzy