Lurker > Esuriat

I misclicked and voted E but I meant to vote D.

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Essy

It's getting harder to forecast because the positivity rate is soaring so there's more unseen spread going on again so all I can really go on is what the reported numbers were at the end of October (around 100k daily) and what they are now (192k reported today). Testing is trying to keep up but it's going to be overwhelmed right after Thanksgiving.

I do think it will begin to fall off afterward, but the first half of December is going to be a nightmare.

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Essy

Also, 2k deaths in the US today.

I estimate we'll see 3k daily in mid December, based on the daily number of cases 3 weeks ago compared with the daily cases now.

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Essy

The final county in the US with no covid cases, Loving County, Texas, got one yesterday.

The single case also increases their infection rate to 0.6%

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Essy

Courage the Cowardly Dog

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Essy

Fantasy football

lol

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Essy

Yes

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Essy

My area got hit hard in May rather than March/April, but it's definitely getting close again. I'm expecting the week of Thanksgiving to be the threshold of it being worse.

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Essy

Labrador or golden retriever

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Essy

Kurt Russell

I recently watched Escape from New York

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Essy

Just Gamecube

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Essy

I have a water glass and coffee mug that I change out around every 4 days, usually leaving them on my desk making sure to keep the mug rinsed between coffee preparations.

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Essy

Also, meanwhile, apparently my county today reported 1 in 500 of its residents have contracted COVID. Huh.

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Essy

Yeah, for a while now I haven't had my hopes on anything earlier than March or April for when we'll truly approach a good level of availability with a vaccine. Kinda funny how close those initial 12-18 month estimates were.

All the same, it's some of the best news we've seen at any point.

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Essy

ctesjbuvf posted...

The day finally came where a Danish newspaper article was linked here and you pick BT...

It's not a very good translation, but I suppose the essence is there.

Heh, figures 'Random redditor' would use a questionable source. Sorry if they're like the Danish equivalent of Sweden's Aftonbladet, or worse

Fortunately at this point several more news groups are reporting on it, though the SSI has not released much more information that I've seen.

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Essy

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1324717318262411264

lmao

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Essy

I know the Coronavirus subreddit tends to be filled with doomers, but it's interesting just how many have assumed apocalyptic implications from this. Frankly anywhere people interact commonly with mustelid animals, and potentially other families of animal, there exists a chance for this to occur. It's probably happened a few times already, it's just that Denmark has a robust ability to monitor for it.

And again, nothing is known about the severity of the form discovered from the minks but obviously it makes sense to not wait to find out.

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Essy

Goldfinger

Almost was Goldmember lol

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Essy

It's something I've been concerned about for a while. SARS-CoV-2 likely came about from a viral recombination that resulted from coinfection from two coronaviruses in a reservoir animal which then transmitted to humans because it linked up with the ACE2 enzymes that is profoundly expressed in human airways. It's always been possible for that to happen again with further animal interaction. It's unfortunately a kind of rapid jump that occurs outside of the standard genetic drift that comes with the usual mutations.

Of course the specifics are unknown. It could be just about anything at this point, more or less deadly, more or less infectious, etc.

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Essy

https://www.bt.dk/politik/alle-mink-skal-slaas-ihjel-muteret-coronavirus-fra-mink-er-en-trussel-for

Translation plucked from the reddit thread:

Mutated coronavirus from mink is a threat to humans

The situation regarding corona infection among mink has now developed to a critical stage in North Jutland.
According to B.T.'s information, a mutated coronavirus migrated from mink to humans and has since spread strongly among the citizens of Vensyssel in North Jutland.
On Tuesday, the government received a note from the Statens Serum Institut, which has exposed the mutated coronavirus to antibodies. The result, according to SSI, was deeply troubling because the mutated coronavirus did not respond well to the antibodies.
Thus, there is a risk that a possible vaccine against covid-19 will not have the desired effect if the mutated virus from mink spreads further among humans.
That is why Mette Frederiksen has convened a press conference on Wednesday at 4 pm, where she herself will participate virtually.
B.T. learns that there are new restrictions for humans on the way in northern Jutland to stop the spread of the coronavirus from mink.
The other party leaders were summoned to a briefing on Wednesday afternoon.

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Essy

Yeah, Virginia is easily one of the most lopsided in favor of Democratic districts and votes that aren't counted. It was silly to call it so early, but nothing has indicated for the call to be reversed if it was made in the first place.

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Essy

Me :)

The smiley face included

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Essy

There was a report going around about a variant of the virus that was noticed in northern Spain in June and was spread around since then to the point of making up the majority of cases in many European nations. It's unknown at the time how exactly this variant has affected the virus but it would make sense considering its dominance that it was yet another change that made it more contagious. This being one on top of the established change that resulted in what was known as the D614G variant that had previously made it more infective.

A change like that could also certainly factor into just how rapidly it has been spreading. Like I was saying about exponential growth, having the reproduction factor modify from 1.2 to 1.5 on average with the control measures in place is still going to have an enormous effect.

EDIT: It is a preprint, though.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1#disqus_thread

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Essy

Happy birthday!

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Essy

I was wrong, none showed up

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Essy

Yes, but I have no candy and will keep the lights out. At least one group will come by and knock anyway, I'm sure.

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Essy

This time when I was 7 and playing with my brother and two friends in a field just after sunset, and a redneck neighbor teen and his friends accused us of throwing rocks at his truck on the road and his friend flashed a rifle at us.

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Essy

DomaDragoon posted...

Halloween is cancelled.

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Essy

I voted by mail, confirmed it was received last Monday.

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Essy

Congrats to the Dodgers. I was pretty okay with either team winning honestly, so it was a fun world series aside from feeling sorry for Snell now.

Also Justin Turner tested positive for COVID mid game and was removed so game 7 may have been a total nightmare scenario for MLB. Basically a very 2020 way for it to end.

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Essy

I'm very sorry about your uncle, Maniac

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Essy

Yep. And most importantly, their present case growth has been only slightly less than what Finland, Norway and Denmark have seen.

The sooner Anders Tegnell resigns and they can actually get someone interested in controlling the virus the better because they are on the precipice of disaster right now.

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Essy

Spooky Scary Skeletons

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Essy

That story was genuinely confusing until I realized it's 6 weeks old.

Sweden is putting on thousands of cases daily again and had their worst report yet four days ago.

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Essy

US is now past 9 million

Apparently there are two counties in the country remaining with no cases: Esmeralda County, Nevada (pop. 873, 2019 est.) and Loving County, Texas (pop. 169, 2019 est.)

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Essy

QAnon

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Essy

The seasonality is kind of a thing, but it's really much more of a factor of exponential growth being what it is where it rolls along barely detectable for months and then suddenly it's absolutely exploding out of control. Leaving that reproduction value above 1 tends to do that. A reproduction cycle is seen as being about 5 days, so if you expand that to 5 months, we're at just about the 30th cycle since a lot of countries lifted lockdowns and other restrictions.

Like if you're offered a penny one day, and every successive day you're offered double the previous amount across 30 days, you're going to barely make anything for 15 days, still a modest sum for the next 5, and then by day 27 you're making a million daily.

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Essy

Nothingness

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Essy

Slender Man

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Essy

The range from blue-green to yellow-green.

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Essy

In Amnesia: The Dark Descent, the first deadly encounter with the Brute/second gatherer

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Essy

Yes

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Essy

Bit O Honey

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Essy

Army of Darkness

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Essy

Jersey Devil

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Essy

This is oddly specific, but the effect in game engines when a texture is missing and so it renders buffer data frame by frame of whatever last occupied the spot in previous frames. They show up somewhat frequently in custom FPS maps, are sometimes called a "Hall of Mirrors" effect.

I first saw it playing a custom Descent map when I was 8 and it absolutely freaked me out. From then on I started calling it the "smear texture" because it looked like surrounding walls would smear into the open spot.

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Essy

Pyramid Head

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Essy

It ends with Chapman allowing a home run again, RIP

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Essy

Creepy Castle
Crystal Caves
Frantic Factory

Dang, no Funky Kong in the poll

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Essy

REC

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Essy