Lurker > Esuriat

A suspicion I've had about the reinfections that are supposedly worse the second time around is that the people never actually got infected the first time around. According to a Lancet article from the end of September which I read sometime last week, in the UK somewhere between 0.8% and 4% of tests that return positive are false positives. It's not because of a weakness with the test (specificity on many tests used is extremely high) but generally from a variety of forms of contamination of the sensitive test.

So what could be seen with these people is just an initial infection that happens to be moderate to severe.

The Lancet article about false positives:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

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Essy

To Kill a Mockingbird

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Essy

13% kind of makes sense with the combination of people confirmed to have gotten it or believe they got it and simply weren't tested. For every person who has an anecdote that may have just been the flu, there's probably another person voting no who was asymptomatic and unaware. Recent antibody studies demonstrated a 10% seroprevalence rate as of July in the US (I know not everyone here is in the US) and antibody studies don't paint the full picture of who has actually gotten the virus.

For the record, my "slight chance" was still a no vote.

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Essy

There's a small chance I got it in March.

The issue with the antibody tests is that they've been found to fade relatively quickly, especially in people who had mild or asymptomatic infection. So unfortunately it may be too late to detect them in people who believe they were infected back in March or so and weren't able to get tested then. There's always the far more involved and expensive test for T helper cells which are also adaptive and specific to the virus. As far as I know the only way to do that is through studies.

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Essy

Jordan Peterson

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Essy

Sweden's numbers have been climbing as well over the last month, though not as sharply as the rest of Europe. Positivity rate is climbing and wastewater data from Stockholm is also showing sharply increasing levels.

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Essy

Hogan's Alley

Somehow this came to me before Duck Hunt.

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Essy

Mr. Kimura

The source.

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Gordon Freeman

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Nah

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The old 'Oof' sound when you were injured in Minecraft

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Hope things get better for you and your family, Nanis

That's sounding really similar to Tim's ordeal with it

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Essy

The Twins have gotta stop getting eliminated so fast

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Mario

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Crystal Palace
Flower Fields

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Click Clock Wood
Freezeezy Peak
Bubblegloop Swamp

Cutting off MMM sucks. :(

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Birdo

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Wood Man
Bubble Man
Wily 1

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Botan (Yu Yu Hakusho)

I was just watching a streamer playing YYH games

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Essy

Dodgers in a 3 game series against a team with a losing record, here we go!

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Essy

New Super Mario Bros.

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I was last fat close to 6 years ago.

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Maridia
Brinstar

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Crysis

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Fire Temple
Spirit Temple
Shadow Temple

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Essy

Not yet. Probably will get one sometime next month.

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Essy

Cool, Cool Mountain
Wet-Dry World
Hazy Maze Cave

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Space Funeral

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Essy

Virginia's positivity rate has been dropping lately to the lowest it's been since March, at 5.5%. Virginia has never had especially explosive spread statewide, just in particular localities at different points so it's never been one for large, shocking numbers, nor has it ever fallen off much. The most recent surge came from college towns, like it did across most of the country.

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Essy

I just lost the game

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Essy

As a kid I somehow always heard 'So long, big Bowser!"

Also uninverted y-axis, especially with FLUDD, is kind of the decision maker for me. Granted, I was already unlikely to get it

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Essy

Yes

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Breath of Fire

Probably because it's my first thought for "most average JRPG" as well

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I can't believe Daisy murdered Rosalina

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Yes

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I Am the Walrus

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SantaRPidgey posted...

Calorie counting is bad science.

I disagree, but I feel like a lot of people approach it with the mentality that they're broken permanently and need to forever track calories.

From 2014 to 2015 I lost just over 100 pounds and I kicked it off with tracking calories with the pointed effort of fully understanding portion sizing and knocking myself out of habit. I needed to recognize what 1800-2000kcal actually felt like. I found that this naturally steered me toward "making the most of" what I did eat so sweets and excess carbs took the biggest hit. After a couple of months I relaxed the tracking and found that eating proper amounts was far more intuitive and it continued to get better from there. I would do a week on again with calorie counting from time to time to keep myself "calibrated" but I've now maintained the weight loss for years with no extra effort.

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Essy

Solid Snake

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Crunch time/overworking

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Gone Home

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Scar

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Zack Fair

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Super Paper Mario

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Sir Chris

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The death tune, complete with the perfect little 'honk' at the end

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Essy

Corrik7 posted...

The places hit hardest before will look good going forward because they might have already reached practical herd immunity?

The main danger I see in claiming practical herd immunity is that we still have a strong degree of reduction in normal activity. It would likely grow significantly again if everything opened up, it just wouldn't be as swift of a spread as anything we saw in March and April.

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Essy

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/08/18/encouraging-news-about-coronavirus-immunity

Yeah, the news on the protective quality and seroprevalence of both antibodies and memory T cells continues to be great. We pretty much have to see now if the elicited antibodies and T cells in a vaccine are of the same quality.

The declining numbers of cases that most states have seen can mean a few things. I've seen some speculation that testing numbers are declining, and they have dropped in most states as well, but the positivity rate also is showing a drop. These are also numbers that are reported by individual states and not through the new HHS system which primarily deals with hospitalization numbers. However I haven't seen anything to indicate that those are fraudulent either, at this time. Of course deaths have been at a leveled off peak now for a few weeks and we may begin seeing a decline there as well.

As far as other explanations for declining numbers of cases, you have mask mandates possibly making differences. Maybe social distancing is playing out but there hasn't been much of a change in general population mobility from June to now. But then you also have speculative reasons that can unfortunately be dangerous to claim because you don't want to give people an unwarranted sense of security. The virus is still dangerous. But an implication of the memory T cells is that the attack rate could be greater than even the antibody tests are showing and general resistance to the virus might be greater than was thought and is having a strong suppressive effect - at current mitigation levels.

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Essy

Dragon View

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Back to the Future

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Mike Pompeo

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Essy