Lurker > Kirby321

ctesjbuvf posted...

Ben has to be put firmly away from likely town now btw.

Because Kirby, Chang, IGCD and Blade are now confirmed and that leaves very little room. Probably why BS logic is being used against me. On the other hand Death seemed to believe it so who knows.

Yeah, I'm starting to come to terms that Ben might not be so clean after all. If Ben is actually scum... first of all, this might be one of his best scum games ever. But also that means my Ben alignment detector would be officially broken beyond repair.

You'll have to forgive me if I'm still in denial. It's almost a matter of pride for me haha

Meow1000 posted...

Yeah Ulti you know me.

I know I'm going to die tonight and I've taken the gloves off. I don't really care if I hurt his feelings when he's town confirming basically the entire game on almost entirely awful logic.

You know, I was just gonna brush it off and not say anything and just simply step away even if I felt disrespected from your earlier remark

But you're a toxic asshole. You can play the game without being demeaning and insulting. I was wrong, but you don't have to be an arse about it.

So whatever. Don't protect me. Let me die. I don't care. I'm not engaging with you any further.

I wouldn't even say it's a throw. If MI isn't the last scum (and it's starting to look likelier that he's town), whoever these last scum seem to be are playing out of their minds.

Sure, we killed two scum back-to-back, but one was arguably a lucky shot that panned out into stopping a kill.

TotallyNotMI posted...

Honestly kirby with how wrong you have been here you don't really have the ground to be mad right now

I'm not even mad. Just disappointed. But I'll admit I was wrong and maybe I don't have a good grasp of the game. So I'm gonna sit back and reevaluate.

Blade is just obnoxiously annoying and condescending, so I'm quite cross with him, especially because...

TotallyNotMI posted...

I would also love for this day not to last the full 48 hours because we really have no new information and we're just going to keep arguing the same points over and over and over and...

I can't handle that.

It's really just Ulti and Blade having a pissing contest. They won't ever shut up, but we'll have a more productive side conversation once everyone else is able to check in and evaluate the flip.

Meow1000 posted...

Ulti and Ctes are the only acceptable lynches today and frankly I don't care how much you try to force them both to be town.

Yes you've said that ten thousand times already. I get the point. Can you please shut the fuck up now and let everyone else talk ffs

So that confirms Blade blocked the IGCD kill. Kinda bummed I didn't stop a kill, but now we have crucial information to work from.

Blade is confirmed. IGCD is confirmed. I still think Ben and Ctes are clean, but sure, I'll concede that's not an airtight argument.

I'm interested to hear what FD and chang make of this flip. They haven't had much of a chance to weigh in, and now that Death has flipped, I want to know where their head spaces are at.

UltimaterializerX posted...

God, I will make this easy on you if you dont think youll hit scum.

Shoot me. I will flip town and all my scans are then confirmed, and I will never ever make fun of you for it. Then you guys kill MI, FD, and Ben in whatever order you want.

If you want to be spicy, shoot Ben. If you want to make the safest play possible, dont shoot at all. Scum probably kills you at night tho.

(typo)

You are severely missing the point if you think people don't trust your scans because they think you're scum.

Ulti, I think you're town. Your death will not confirm anything. The only thing that will confirm your scans is a Godfather flip, so unless you're Godfather, stop begging for death. Please.

Meow1000 posted...

IGCD will freely tell you that himself.

And has numerous times in the past.

Okay then you're a bad sport. Just shut up.

TotallyNotMI posted...

Hey Kirby

Stop being a tool towards me, please. My theories are reasonable and could very easily be right still. And I factually know you're wrong about me.

I was talking about Ulti and Blade when referring to "Lopen levels of insane". You're in the category of "has every incentive to convince IGCD not to shoot him", which is not meant to be insulting.

Meow1000 posted...

IGCD doesn't believe in himself that's why he sheeps so much.

If IGCD shot you out of spite, I would not blame him. What a completely unnecessary insult.

Meow1000 posted...

I mean, that's one thing Ulti and I agree on. A 3/19 scumteam should've revolted immediately.

I mean, my Super Smash Bros. Mafia game had a severely outnumbered scum team because their powers were utterly busted, and they still won.

Don't assume every game is perfectly designed around everyone's preconceived notions of what is standard for a B8 Mafia game.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Fuck, I knew I shouldn't have announced it. Too many people trying to pull me in multiple directions and I want to have confidence in everyone but don't have confidence in anyone lol

Just keep in mind which players have a huge incentive to make you shoot someone else besides them. And also remember which players are Lopen levels of insane.

Believe me, IGCD, I trust you. I don't trust the other players who are trying to convince you. Otherwise, I'd be hella quiet and focused on my work. It's just that the people who are obnoxiously loud aren't the ones interested in giving you good, unbiased direction.

At the end of the day, believe in yourself. It's your shot, after all.

Meow1000 posted...

Even if MI flips scum the fact it doesn't change the fact that Death flipping town would shatter the entire foundation you've built your reads on.

No. There's a possibility there's only one scum left, given how insanely powerful Knightz and Wallz both were.

The only way my foundation gets broken is if the game continues even after Death and MI are flipped. That is the only condition. I'm done discussing this any further until IGCD makes his shot.

Meow1000 posted...

There has to be at minimum two scum left.

You can't even name two scum if Death flips town because you're town locking everyone.

You should be worried about that.

I will only be concerned if neither Death nor MI flip scum. If both of them die today, I have the next day to figure out where I went wrong with my assumptions, and that's assuming I don't die tonight.

We have the numbers to make two mislynches today, unless there's four scum left and that's just fucking insane to even consider. If there's three scum left, then:

Two town die today, leaving 5 town versus 3 scum.
One nightkill. Entering the next day with 4 town versus 3 scum.

You are unnecessarily worried about a game that's not even over yet. And no, I don't think the possibility of a vote suppressor is even worth considering at the moment.

ctesjbuvf posted...

It does give me pause thinking would scum death really go this hard on me.

But it could also just be an act to try to get the shot on me so

Yes. If last game is any indication, scum Death is one of the few B8 players that doesn't immediately fold when the odds look incredibly against him. Death will fight to the very end to convince people that he's town even when all evidence points to him.

That being said, it could also be town Death. But scum Death is absolutely capable of going this hard when he's cornered.

Meow1000 posted...

Basically Kirby if Death flips town you have at minimum hard town confirmed two scum members and possibly all three.

That isn't a "bridge to cross later", that should be immediate alarm bells.

You don't even know if there's three scum members left. You don't even know if there's two left!

Don't attack me when you're making assumptions that you have absolutely zero way to confirm. I'm working based off of information I have right now to estimate the best possible lynch, not trying to solve the entire damn game by making assumptions I can't possibly prove right now.

Meow1000 posted...

Kirby went from hard clearing a group of people for terrible reasons to hard clearing every single player in the game but you if Death flips town.

So I ask him, what exactly happens if Death does because he has absolutely no plan. I've long since stated how I feel Death flipping either way affects the game.

You answered your own question. If Death flips town, my PoE says it's MI, then, because everyone else would have a town case for them except for MI.

What happens afterward? We'll cross that bridge once we actually see some damn flips first. Don't tell me I don't have a plan when I very clearly stated how my reads will be affected by Death's flip.

IGCD, everybody posting fervently in this topic trying to convince you who to shoot either doesn't want you to shoot them and is trying to misdirect you (Death, MI) or has an insane ego (Ulti, Blade).

Please don't listen to them. It's white noise that will only distract you. Listen to the players who you think are town and have analyzed the game well. They're the ones who won't be biased. Please.

htaeD posted...

Okay Kirby you can accuse me of unfortunate cicrumstances. But I did not stoke that Ben kynch

You were the fourth vote on the Ben special, then everybody started voting Peaf, and then you switched your vote to Peaf.

You absolutely helped fan the flames that lead to EoD D4 with your vote on Ben. Don't deny that.

Meow1000 posted...

Ctes doesn't have to stop his vote according to his claim.

But he did so today. Nobody was suppressed yesterday.
Ergo, Ctes can only suppress his own vote. So if he's scum, then he has less control in MyLo than scum would ideally want.

Ctes is not a threat right now.

I think Ben is singlehandedly the worst shot possible out of IGCD's proposed ones. He's a claimed power who hasn't been using his powers in a scummy way. Aside from my episode of distrusting him, everyone he neighbored with had positive interactions with him. Killing him is the musings of insane people.

Ctes is also unlikely to be scum. He no longer has a vote today.

Ulti is our Cop. I already jailed the town Cop. Don't add salt on the wound by fucking shooting him.

The only thing Death has going for him is an inno scan. Being jailkept on an NK night and stoking the Ben special only to abandon it and jump back on Peaf at the end of D4 was also extremely scummy behavior that nobody thinks was a natural thought process for town.

And MI is just PoE.

It's abundantly clear who needs to die today.

I feel like until we get the flip from the shot, we're all just gonna be bickering without going anywhere. No offense, IGCD, but I don't see a point to drawing this out to the 24 hour mark. Shoot Death and let's start analyzing the game from his flip.

But if you need more time to consider your shot, I respect it.

Meow1000 posted...

Will once again reiterate though that if Ctes is scum and hasn't been stripping his own vote that FD essentially can't fit on the scumteam because there's no room to fit his action. We'd know the other two were vote stopper and bus driver.

Speaking of vote stopper, were actually in mylo today if IGCD shoots town and that role actually exists.

Well, Ctes can't vote today and nobody had their vote suppressed yesterday. So there's likely no vote stopper and Ctes is telling the truth.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I really dont think we have that Wall role, ctes, and a godfather. Occulams Razor says if there is a godfather it has to be ctes (he scanned innocent), but he already says he can scan guilty.

I dont think we have a godfather in this game. Especially if we have a third party that scans innocent. Its too much.

If there's a Godfather, it's Death. The guy who MZero breadcrumbed taunting on the night he died and the guy I jailed on a NK night.

That's too convenient to be a coincidence.

Oh nvm Lea edited the votals. Ctes can't vote today. That is confirmed.

Meow1000 posted...

Depends on if Ben tried to get Ctes to kill himself in the first place

Ctes testified that Ben was the one who brought up the idea to use Ctes' double vote to prove himself.

Also... I just remembered

I will fucking cry if we don't kill Death today.

We need to know if my jail stopped the kill last night or if Blade's save stopped it. The only way to resolve that is by killing Death.

This is absolutely insane that y'all are clamoring to not shoot Death. Dude has a mountain of evidence stacked against him in spite of the inno scan (which, may I remind you all, we still haven't flipped a Godfather so inno scans mean jack shit this late into the game)

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Because he doesn't want another shot out there to shoot scum.

But if scum Ben knows who town Ctes will bet on, he can just avoid killing the person Ctes thinks will die... and then Ctes just fucking dies as well. No vig shot left to consider aside from yours

Meow1000 posted...

...Why would I be talking about myself and not Ben/Ctes

Oh you weren't clear on what you meant

Ctes said something along the lines of "I thought IGCD would draw protection, and Ben agreed with me" I believe, so that would imply Ctes brought it up first.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Can we stop considering this

I mean my "omegalol" comment heavily implied it was a ridiculous notion

I just wanted to cover my bases since I'm sure some smartass would've said "but uh what if they no killed tho?????"

Meow1000 posted...

Out of curiosity who brought up the possibility of IGCD being saved first

... You?

Could've sworn you came in here fully insisting that it was your save that blocked the kill and not my jail before I even claimed my night action lol

changmas posted...

ben is not cleared. You dont think scum discussed whether IGCD would be protected?

Why does scum Ben persuade Ctes to go for the double vote instead of letting him follow your plan to kill himself

UltimaterializerX posted...

The bit about IGCD being alive is good, outside one thing. Someone else could have sent the kill in.

What does this even mean

There are exactly four possibilities for why NK happened last night.

1) Town IGCD was protected
2) Scum Death was roleblocked from killing
3) Town Death was protected (lol)
4) Scum decided to not kill (omegalol)

Either Death delivered the kill or he didn't. If he flips town, then duh, of course somebody else had to deliver the kill ffs

TotallyNotMI posted...

Kirby, this is not the first time you've posted something as if scum can't lie

Let's assume town-Ben and scum-Ctes.

Scum chat is certain that Kirby will be protected so they put a kill in on IGCD.
Ben says in neighbor chat 'oh yeah, I think IGCD will be protected'.
Scum ctes goes 'oh yeah totally I agree' while laughing to himself because he thinks man that is wrong and Ben is a fool only for that to backfire!

I mean let's be honest shooting IGCD would be a major faux pas, so odds are likelier that Death is scum and I blocked his kill

To me, the optimal path to take is shoot Death, lynch MI. Only then is it worthwhile to start questioning our power roles to see who is the dirty liar.

I think this game state is pretty easy to solve now

Unconditionally Town
Chang (vote control role, highly unlikely to be scum)
Kirby (blocked N1 kill and confirmed roleblock after scum roleblocker flip)
Ulti (roleblocked in a position where it makes sense for him to deliver the kill, but kill happened anyway)
FD (flavor meta is strongly in his favor)

Town Confirmed if Death is Town
Ben (could have avoided shooting IGCD)
Blade (protected IGCD)
Ctes (could have avoided shooting IGCD)
IGCD (would've been shot at)

No compelling reason to believe is town
MI

Jailkept on a NK night and is highly likely scum
Death

htaeD posted...

I mean Ctes already is clearly planning to never prove that he can shoot someone.

You make it sound like a town Ctes even has an easy choice to earn his shot lol

The odds are stacked against Ctes. Ben is 100% right. Ctes earning a double vote to clear himself is far valuable than Ctes just dying a pitiful offscreen death.

htaeD posted...

I forget, why does it confirm Ctes?

Ctes and Ben both openly admitted that they thought IGCD would draw protection. As such, the scum person in that pair would likely avoid shooting IGCD and instead go for protection like Blade or me.

If you flip town, however, that confirms scum tried to shoot IGCD. Scum Ben or scum Ctes wouldn't make that shot, given their neighbor chat. Therefore, Ben and Ctes are both cleared.

This falls through if both Ben and Ctes are scum, since they could retroactively fib about their neighbor chat, but I doubt both of them are scum. I doubt even more that scum Ben would neighborize his teammate instead of trying to manipulate town like Ulti or Blade.

ctesjbuvf posted...

And yes, shooting Death only to confirm IGCD wouldn't be the best. I described the worst case scenario in what I think is a shot on scum.

If you ask me, Death flipping town would confirm four people: Blade, IGCD, you, and Ben.

But nobody seemed to even give me the time of day when I pointed that out. We're at that point of the game where town has gone full-on delusional and won't listen to each other.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Because if youre town and dont trust the innocent scan, you need to verify the innocent scan actually exists first. Its Hempels Raven Paradox.

Excuse me? I basically have a guilty scan on Death. Why don't you trust the guy who already blocked a kill :P

IGCD, I trust you, but I don't trust MI, Ulti, or Death to pick the wisest options >_>

If you want my opinion, shoot Death. If he's scum, yay! If he's town, then you'll be town cleared and people will get off your back.

htaeD posted...

I dont think scum foregoes a kill alltogether to avoid Ctes getting a shot either, they could have shot someone like Kirby, Blade or even Ulti if he is town. Then either they get 2 dead town out of the deal or (in this case) just 1 and Ctes who looks bad the next day.

I completely agree. However, you do realize this argument makes you look even worse, right? lol

If scum believed Ctes would gamble his life away, letting IGCD live and hoping he'd shoot town would be extremely optimal.

Thus, it's likely IGCD wasn't shot at... which means the explanation for the NK is that you delivered the kill and I blocked you.

So I just realized something.

If Death flips town, that means IGCD was protected last night, yeah? Because my jail didn't stop the nightkill.

That would mean Ben and Ctes are highly unlikely to have exactly one scum between them. Think about it. Ben and Ctes both agreed that IGCD would likely draw protection last night, and that's information they shared with us, right?

Let's assume one of them is town and would have no reason to lie about that discussion. If the other was scum, they could have very easily directed the kill to someone else besides IGCD, knowing that he was very likely to be doc protected. However, if Death is town, we know IGCD was shot, which means scum Ben or scum Ctes didn't direct the shot somewhere else despite acknowledging that IGCD was the obvious doc target.

This means one of two things: either Ben and Ctes are both scum pulling theater (unlikely) or they're both town, contingent on Death flips town. If exactly one of them were scum, they wouldn't have shot at IGCD. Of course, if Death flips scum, none of that holds true, but who cares? We'd have dead scum.

I really think killing Death really is the optimal play here. We could potentially get three town clears off of his flip.

You know, Ulti, I'm very shocked that you're not appalled that MI, who you said is one of the best endgame solvers, sincerely believes that you're scum :P

Either he's right or you're a bloody hypocrite lol

I trust IGCD will make the right call here. Hoping to see some shots fired sooner than later, but I respect the wish to let everyone speak first before shooting.

I'd argue that the host would probably feel incredibly ashamed for including Evil Pierce instead of any of the other study group evil counterparts.

I say this as someone who has only seen a few episodes of Community out of context. But that is the impression I've been given by, not one, not two, but three different players who know the flavor way better than I do.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Oh. Well in that case you guys can continue down this weird hole I guess

One easy thing you can do right now is vote and see if your vote counts.

At this point, I think you're telling the truth, but might as well put to it to rest. I don't think scum would deliberately keep their vote locked down for the rest of the game.

Meow1000 posted...

Has a big hole in it Kirby wasn't blocking Ulti again, so why wouldn't he be the one sending the kill?

Tough question. One possibility is that, oh, I don't know ULTI IS FUCKING TOWN COP

Jfc

Maybe MI isn't scum with Death. But I'm getting all the more convinced that Death is scum regardless.

I'd support IGCD shooting Death. I think shooting Ulti is a collosal waste given that it's only Blade and MI screaming for his blood.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I legitimately truly believe MI would have scanned innocent and I second this. PLEASE do not shoot him. Im even willing to bite a bullet for the guy because hes a better endgame solver than me, plus it gets people laughing at Dull Butterknife over there.

You said that about Red last game when he was scum.

If MI is scum, then that's just prophetic in the most backwards way possible lmao