Lurker > Rolycoly

Leonhart4 posted...

I'll go FFVII, OoT, SSBM, FFX, LttP, CT as the ones I feel pretty sure will be there.

Yeah, these all seem obvious. I also agree with Mario 3 and Brawl. For the last two, I'll guess FF6 and also Mario World, I suppose.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

SeabassDebeste posted...

hmm, got it. the only high-leverage upset i got was witcher 3 > skyrim. i remember basically never having heard of witcher 3 and then watching it dominate in the GOTY polls and wondering what the hell i'd missed.

Are you talking about internet-wide GotY polls? Witcher 3 barely beat Fallout 4 in GameFAQs' GotY.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

Change to half on Witcher 3.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

40M on Witcher 3.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

Lightning Strikes posted...

So those anti-Skyrim arguments are nothing to do with me, it wasnt the entire board.

Well ok, I just think it's weird to think Skyrim hasn't gotten any weaker since 2015 even now, let alone when it was looking absolutely dire after last round. 59% on HGSS just doesn't measure up to 59% on GoldenEye.

Lightning Strikes posted...

And to the second point, I have always argued that GSC is one of the most overrated games in contest history.

I'll agree with you that GSC isn't and in fact has never had elite strength, and that Skyrim would have beaten it in 2015. The problem is that it's not 2015 anymore. That 44% on Melee translates into 63% on Portal, and I have a hard time buying Mario Kart 8 being comfortably ahead of Portal. I have an even harder time buying anything Nintendo losing a really close match to Skyrim at this point.

Lightning Strikes posted...

This is all stuff I have been consistent about. Please dont lump me in with arguments I not only never agreed with, but actively argued against. And please do not accuse me of revisionism.

I apologize for lumping you in with the crowd here. I didn't realize you had a consistent outlying opinion on Skyrim the whole time, so that's my bad.

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$200M on Dark Souls.

(This is MetalmindStats.)

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

What I'm saying is that I personally dislike huge rallies that disenfranchise GameFAQs voters - certainly that has nothing to do with their morality or any sort of objective stance (hint: no such thing exists here, as with lots of subjects). The fact that you have no idea where the line between midsized and massive rallies lies, and your assumption that any random rally can reasonably catch fire in such a way, tells me that you lack the type of knowledge that would serve you well when commenting on a subject such as this.

Anyways, this is the last comment I'll make on this incredibly tired topic.

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davidponte posted...

I feel like responding to gamers who can't understand the concept of games not being grouped by genre for a GotD tournament with a sports analogy can only increase their confusion.

My whole idea was that the only reason a bracket format for contests like these has any legitimacy with the average Reddit user is because the NCAA pioneered and established it. I suppose you're probably right, though.

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You know how I'd respond to the people baffled by the mixing of genres (if I were to bother)? This is how the NCAA does it. Sure, they have divisions named after broad geographic regions, but really each one has a mix of teams from all corners of the US, and thus a mix of fanbases. For the benefit of Redditors, our game tournaments mix fanbases in an equivalent fashion by having wildly distinct games competing against each other.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Sorry I forgot what GSC's R2 opponent was in 2010.

It's not just that; it's also that I really wouldn't use the word barely to describe a 3.5% difference in these contests.

Sharinnegan posted...

back in 2015, considering this site's demographic, it might have been a "what even is that?" game for most of the voter base.

You're grossly underestimating the automatic attention the Blizzard name still musters to this day, and heck the Warcraft brand in particular while we're at it. Next, are you going to try claiming a huge chunk of GameFAQs didn't know the first thing about Overwatch 1.5 years after its release?

Sharinnegan posted...

i dont believe Nier is only suikoden 2 level. that'd still leave it as basically fodder in the grand scheme of these contests.

Well, Shadow of the Colossus was the popular pre-contest comparison for Nier's unique fanbase, nature as a game, and general trajectory. With that in mind, it's easy to forget that SotC didn't look so hot itself when it was nearly doubled by RE4 and KH2 in its first contest - also a bit over 3 years after its release.

davidponte posted...

So 1000 theoretical votes from a Divinity rally means NieR doesn't look as awful as we thought it did.

I find that a suspiciously high number considering it's at a fraction of Bloodborne's 800-upvote rally (on a similarly active subreddit), which only gave it about 2,000 votes across its whole match. Maybe Divinity has a better follow-through rate, but not by enough to matter. It's worth noting that there's also been a mildly successful FF14 rally with barely a third of the Divinity rally's upvotes, but on a subreddit with 5x the active users - and said rally seems to favor Nier over Divinity.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

I don't have a true favorites bracket, because I've played too few games in this contest to make one. However, I did use this account to enter a bracket that was mostly normal, with the main exception of having my favorite game winning it all. Turns out that gave it a pretty big leg up over a regular favorites bracket, who'd have thought?

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

Sharinnegan posted...

is there anything to suggest GTAV is actually stronger than RDR?

LOL x-stats certainly overestimate the gap, but 43% on Super Mario RPG in 2015 is just as certainly better than 41% on Shadow of the Colossus. There's a few more debatable arguments like RDR getting overshadowed by its sequel, but that's the crux of it.

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shane15 posted...

If it pulls this off it'll be great to see indie stuff failing to make round 3.

Out of genuine curiosity, why would that be great?

tgs2 posted...

If people think Undertale lost to Octopath due to anti-votes, it already is the strongest Indie barring Cuphead given SK currently choking here.

What you're not grasping with this is that antivotes are an intrinsic part of Undertale's strength. Obviously Undertale would be the top indie without antivotes, but that's irrelevant.

davidponte posted...

Also I can almost guarantee casual voters know more about Shovel Knight than Octopath Traveler.

On JRPGFAQs? I don't know about that.

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By clicking on one game in each match from the left to the right, then pressing the button to lock in my votes.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

Registered votes are often bracket votes, this contest more than ever before. Also, plenty of voters on JRPGFAQs like Octopath Traveler, and it didn't need to be truly beloved to win here.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

I started Deiland a bit early; I'm currently about an hour and a half in, part of that spent tabbed out because it's been struggling to hold my attention.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

UltimaterializerX posted...

I just want in for contest season to have a good pulse of whats up, so the PCA writeups can be as good as possible (a LOT of people read those things on the wiki, and its a disservice to not give them my best effort)

Then there's no reason you need to be allowed to actually send messages anywhere, or even see any non-contest channels.

Likewise, if that's really what you want in for, I would expect you to cease fabricating Discord strawmen to attack, on pain of being indefinitely banned.

I support unbanning you for the duration of contest season if, and only if, the conditions above are fulfilled.

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One major thing I forgot to mention earlier: when Ng brought up the topic of nostalgia boosting one specific game this contest, I figured he'd certainly be referring to Pokemon HGSS. Resident Evil 2, unlike HGSS, is radically different from the game it's nominally remaking, and I anticipate it principally standing on its own two feet. As for Doom, there's no question there: it's flat out not a remake, no more similar to the original than any given sequel is to its predecessor. I would furthermore argue it doesn't have great prospects in this bracket, considering pure shooters are anathema to GameFAQs in the absence of mass nostalgia.

A few other quick points:

I agree with Leon: if you've escaped your division, your next match deserves a day to itself, and that would only lengthen this contest by two days. However, I don't think the interest in these contests justifies anything more.

I'm not a big fan of the forced six-day break, but judging by 2018, its effect on vitals and general contest interest could certainly be worse. Having a second chance bracket is worthwhile enough to me to justify these minor consequences, and I don't think any shorter of an entry period is really reasonable.

Allen certainly could have done a better job publicizing this contest so far, yep. I agree that the banner doesn't exactly stick out, and we didn't so much as get a poll to let people know there was a contest to nominate for. Hopefully that will change.

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LeonhartFour posted...

Assassin's Creed Odyssey is in the contest

Thanks for pointing this out; it's corrected now.

I goofed it in the first place because I was thinking of Origins, which wasn't actually in any of the mock brackets, so I typed Odyssey instead.

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Interesting...

My first inclination was 2. However, I'm leaning towards 1 right now, because it allows the others to go through 6 without leaving anyone behind (and also because both Seven and Lotus have rubbed me the wrong way).

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scarletspeed7 posted...

The people who are bothered by other people's opinions on the Super Bowl.

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I concur with Axem. Just as I felt Waddle Dee was Low Fodder, so too I would say the same about Bandana Dee.

Nominate Waddle Dee for reranking.

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Red Lions: Mid Fodder
James: Fodder Line
Spy: Low Fodder

Also nominate Chie and Yoshimitsu.

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Final bumpo

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

MetalmindStats posted...

Bumpo

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.

I know about Allen's use of Metacritic scores as part of determining 2015's field (thus my mention of critic scores), but what actual popularity data from non-GameFAQs sources did Allen use in that contest?

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HaRRicH posted...

Third strongest probably with Skyward Sword, but I like the match as-is.

Augh, I knew I was forgetting something when I said second. Oh well, I still think it's a good match and well worth seeing.

LeonhartFour posted...

I dunno. I don't ever bother to rate games here after I play them. I just wouldn't put any stock into a stat like that having any bearing on how well played or well liked a game is.

Even so, the ratings amount gap between the two is clearly statistically significant, whatever effect taking into account those who don't rate might have. Admittedly, I've probably put a bit too much stock into their average ratings in particular - ex. despite the ample sample size, it's possible that people who don't rate games have noticeably different opinions than those who do. More concerningly, a large portion of FF15's ratings may have come during the honeymoon phase. I suppose I'll just have to agree to disagree about the margin KH3 would prevail by.

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LeonhartFour posted...

wow this is like the early days of the contest where we thought games that were in the top 50 list would clearly be the most popular games

I mean, if you seriously think I'm trying to argue FF15 is better-received here than KH3 because it has more ratings, I don't know what to say. If not, then explain why you think there's such a huge gap in the two games' rating amounts here, even though they apparently have very similar play rates.

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LeonhartFour posted...

I'm not so convinced of this. A lot of people were waiting around for FFXV to get "finished" first, and now that it never will, a lot of fans will never play it.

The most direct evidence we have of the two games' respective playrates here is the amount of user ratings they have here; as I mentioned before, FF15 triples KH3 on an apples-to-apples basis, or doubles it adjusted for the activity gap. I'm not sure the difference is quite that large, but I'm confident FF15 at least has a noticeable edge.

LeonhartFour posted...

And I was referring to this poll, which was 3 months, so whatever.

I mean, I guess KH3 would have been competitive in GotY if it held that margin, in the same sense Sekiro was competitive. I really don't think that's good enough to stomp FF15, though.

(Sorry for clogging up your topic with this tangentially related argument, HaR!)

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To be fair, I forgot just how good Cuphead looked in 2017's Xbox One and Indie GotY polls (not so much in the overall poll, though). That being said, the character's CBX result was just okay, whereas Shovel Knight the character looked to have real strength that same contest. I for one am certainly more inclined to trust an actual contest than 2/3 GotY polls, which we've seen fail to translate to the contest scene plenty before.

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I'm struggling to see what argument there is for Shovel Knight not to be the answer here, at least in lieu of mass rallies.

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MetalmindStats on mobile, and also as a Pokemon.