Lurker > htaeD

I forgot he could even shoot during the day.
That is probably smarter at least

If it makes Chang happy I would even offer to let IGCD shoot me.
It'd narrow down the PoE and it would deny Chang the shame of mislynching me later down the line.

Though I would argue its still better to shoot someone who could be scum.

Also I dont recall if IGCD said he could shoot straight away.

Meow1000 posted...

The issue is if scum does have a redirect and can use it again they can completely wreck any advance planning.

Does Ctes' power even target?

changmas posted...

PROPOSED PLAN IF YOU TRUST CTES AND IGCD ARE TOWN

IGCD gets to hammer today and earns his vig shot
ctes bets his life that IGCD is the nightkill to earn his vig shot

Scum is forced to either kill IGCD and confirm ctes town or let him be and ctes removes himself as a mislynch option

and town is guaranteed at least one vig shot tomorrow either way.

note that this does NOT guarantee that kirby roleblock will stop the kill, as scum can no kill or shoot into ctes anyway to conceal themselves, but it earns us a vig shot tomorrow guaranteed and we'll have two flips next day phase

Huh, thats basically my plan but better.
I didnt consider that we could use the bet to force scum to shoot Ctes' target.

Kirby321 posted...

Someone walk me through the "if Red is scum, MI must be town" theory.

Is there no possibility of MI and Red both being scum?

My only thing to add is that Red did vote MI day1 and left the vote there. Thats all I know.

5. Death (Scans be damned. He got caught as a major bystander on yesterday's lynch and nothing about his answers for that today have seemed particularly impactful in addressing that. Voting to avoid a tie is crazy. Multiple people have said the scan is basically the only thing keeping their votes away, so I'm not sure that should be enough to keep him safe for much longer).

I felt like a bystander true, because I honestly was unable to decide much like I am today
I didnt vote him to just avoid a tie, and I have already explained myself
You should not just brush off my entire series of answers with a "meh, not impactful."

I still wonder if the busdrive connects to all of this somehow.
But either way its curious that Ulti still said that he visited MI instead of Red when as scum he would not have to.

Meow1000 posted...

MI is correct that logically speaking a town seemingly as weak as this one is shouldn't have 3 claimed powers all being scum.

That is fair
Also for all we know Lopen was a nilla.

I honestly think a number of nillas cannot really ever be properly assessed.

Oh trust me if I thought my scumteam pairings were good logic I would have voted you already.

They arent even useful to anyone besides me since I am the only one that knows to exclude me from scumpairings.

I suppose you can say something about him still voting Ctes at this stage.

ctesjbuvf posted...

How does one think Ben has to be teamed up with specifically me and MI to be scum anyway

Well I guess it doesn't matter

Just assuming a worst case scenario of 5 scum total, someone has to be scum and it aint me.

Also wondering if Red can even be scum with MI due to Red leaving a vote on MI before leaving...
Sure the alternatives at the time were Wallz and Knightz, but Red voted Kirby before that and seemed awfully casual about switching to MI.

Yeah I was subconsciously excluding it, but I cannot say its as unlikely as something like Ben bussing Red at his own risk

Oh and to answer your other question.

TotallyNotMI posted...

I don't have a whole lot to say! All three of peaf/Corrik/red look back but I'm being swayed by the pointing out that peaf conveniently ignored voting red over corrik. It's not a good look.

This is why MI voted Peaf. You were even the one to get this answer out of him.

Oh im an idiot, Ulti/Ctes/MI is also still possible.

Actually wait I think forgot a combination there
Ben/Ulti/MI?
Yeah

I know I am not scum
I actually trust you and FD and I believe Kirby and Chang have to be town.

To me it feels like its either
Ben/Ctes/MI
Or
MI/Red/Ulti

I dont think Ben bothers to vote Red as a fellow scummate if Peaf is right there for the taking.
And Ulti + Ctes we already discussed.

BUT IGCD is a big blind spot in my perspective and I can only blame myself for that still being the case.

(Now that he is gone, lets discuss the possibility of a Ulti/Red/MI scumteam)

Ah
Get well soon Ulti.

Leafeon13N posted...

With what was on the board?

If your shooting protection you shoot direct at kirby because you assume any extra prot is probably bg.

I dont think that was an unreasonable take.

I suppose it makes senses. Its just that you sounded so confident.
But again its a minor thing.

Honestly I do feel like MI has to be on either possible scumteam from my POV
But someone would need to remind me first why IGCD was excluded from the PoE

Hrm
At the start of the day Red said

They lost their rolecop they are shooting blind.

They are hunting for scanner actually. Cant really shoot for much else.

I thought we had JK claim or did i lose track of something?

I feel like 'hunting for scanner' sounds like he knows a little more than he should.
Tho in the grand pool of interactions, this hardly makes a ripple I know.

Yes

I should also add that MI was around as well right after it happened. He suspected Corrik and Red for showing up right before the vanishment, but backtracked since that would make those two just look guiltier than they needed to be.

To be honest tho I dislike the post where he complains that reactions to Lopens disappearance could be faked, since it reads like he is upset that he himself did not have a 'shocked' reaction.

Oh yeah votals, could use them

Meow1000 posted...

Red assuming kidnap over kill could easily be a natural thought process.

Yeah thats what I was getting at.

So you were 3rd FD, or 4th if you consider Corrik as the inception instead of IGCD

Corrik made the joke first
IGCD connected it to Blade
Kirby thought it was not a bad theory.
FD also made a big post about it but he was more about trying to reason why that did or did not make sense.
Still I like most people in this sequence. (and Corrik is dead, RIP)

Interestingly Red was very quick to insist that Lopen was not dead.
Which I think he is wrong about, but his confusion about the difference between expelled/vanished could be genuine.

Its true. My beautiful flavor, wasted.

Meow1000 posted...

Though he did stay on Ben as I'd expect him to do in that situation.

For some reason I thought he switched his vote until I just checked.

Yeah honestly I thought the same.
Things moved fast

Oof. Grievous misuse of double negative there.
*The more I believe scumUlti etc etc
Now the sentence is what I intend to say.

Does one of those teams have both Ulti and Ctes on it, Blade?\

Because the more I think about, the less I believe scumUlti does not bother to fake a scan on scumCtes if scum also planned to votelock him all the time.

Oh pfft, I missed that post in one of the updates

Yeah you may have a point. Scumred was way kinder to his own sleeping schedule.

Well that answers that I guess.
So you believe Red is more town of the two? (forgive me if I missed you mentioning this a dozen times)

I am town btw, how does that affect things?

Lopen could be doc, could be cop, cant be both but can be neither.
I think there is still some use to the impasse but it is diminishing in effectiveness.

*dont think Ulti and Red may be scum together

But like I said, thats a minor read.

Minor thing, but I dont think Ulti and Red if only because it feels weird to me that 2 scum would both want to call me confirmed town

Oh I was too broad.
I just wanted to know how you currently feel about Red/MI

And I am not literally telling you to stop talking about me. Just using a common phrase and all.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

I think that's reasonable. I'm personally having a real tough time digesting all the night actions right now.

Lol
Chang just really wants to kill me so he has to ignore the scan.

I believe I said I found Red getting better at playing and MI sounded more fake today, considering his anger outbursts.
Currently rereading days 3 and 4 since I overlooked those too much.

But in the mean time enough about me Ctes, what do you think?

ctesjbuvf posted...

So what are you considerations?

Let my raise my own notes first, when it comes to interactions with Wallz
I think these all remain true.

Ctes: Wallz accused him of being scummoned. Seems odd to say about a scum mate, and Wallz really wanted Ctes to show up too.
That started a whole argument which does not feel like scum-scum to me. However Ctes loses some points due to unvoting Wallz very quickly after voting him.

MI: Disliked Wallz post about Sbell as well, tho he was late to the party.
MI also paired Wallz' votes with FD and promised to reread FD, but then later promised to reread Wallz again to say he likes him more than he thought.
He also thought Wallz was a diversion from scum, tho he became the next diversion ironically. Thats the best thing going for him really.

Ulti: I cant really see a scumpartner make the 'why didnt Wallz pursue me right away' attack. That said the two seemed awfully chummy later on despite that and Ulti voted MI at the end of the day as well.

IGCD: I really dont remember what he has going for him outside of maybe some things Knightz said.

Red: Has also contributed little

This is where I see the problem clearly. As far as I can tell Red has just not interacted with either of the scum significantly and MI is not much better, but at least above Red in that regard.

Then there are the cold 'what can this tell me?' considerations.
Flipping Red scum would help a lot. Flipping him town I dont know if that says as much.
Flipping MI town would also I think clear up a lot due to the 3way lynch. Him flipping scum maybe less.
So that feels about the same to me as well.

Hence me needing more data

By the way I feel I need to assure IGCD that I will not do any sudden vote shifts tonight.
Its either MI or Red and I am just spending the rest of my time figuring out who.

Red less focus on FD and more focus on the game as a whole please.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

It wouldn't be the first time that day 1 was between 3 scum. I've certainly fallen into the trap of believing that sort of thing is "too unlikely" before.

Oh dont misunderstand. I am not trying to say its impossible. I have seen it happen not even all that long ago.

Also Blade if MI is scum than every lynch that day was scum, so what does that even say?

Oh you figured that out yourself.

Anyway my followup to the Ben vote is as good as it could be. If you expected more, thats too bad.

Meow1000 posted...

I mentioned last night MI/Death is one of the likeliest pairings left on the board.

Death's has a very weak voting history where his only two memorable placements are dead last on a long-dead Knightz day 1 (and MI was also on Knightz very late), and that inexplicable vote on Ben yesterday that felt like it came out of nowhere.

I can remember very little in the way of interaction between the two players and very little in the way of reads between the two players directed towards each other.

I cant help it that MI is not that engaging.
I will remind you tho that I specifically mentioned MI as a person I would not vote day1. So keep that in your data.

Its understandable to look at, but I see nothing useful in the end.
Maybe because I know who I am.

Anyway my current view is that
I still like FD, Chang and Kirby have to be town. Ben has explained himself well enough, but I am still wary of him.
Blade still has the Wallz thing in his favor IMO.
Your role might as well not exist, a lot depends on what Ulti and IGCd really are as well. You three are like stuck in a stew that needs another night to marinate, even if I dont like having to wait.

That does leave me towards wanting to just lynch one of MI/Red still.
Scum probably has 3 members left, so we can afford that.

But you cant be certain about that or anything else.

Trying to act like it is a certain thing is just bad.