Oh, I should probably point out that since nothing is a sure-thing ever, the highest percentage I am giving is 99.99, and the lowest is 0.01.
This is up through Seisen. Anything after him counts as the next update.
Birdo
In addition to the four established staples, there are at least four other Mario characters ahead of her, and unless the roster is well over 60, I don't see Mario getting that many reps.
Chances: 10%
Little Mac
He was an assist trophy in Brawl and since then has starred in a game that sold really well. In addition, his original game is availaible on the VC for both Wii AND 3DS. They are clearly trying to bring Punch-Out back into relevancy, and putting Little Mac as a playable character in the next Smash is clearly the next step, especially since it's a fighting game, and he's a fighting character.
Chances: 95%
Andy
If he had a chance, it would've been in Brawl. He just seems too generic and Advance Wars seems like a series best saved for ATs. However it's got a big enough fanbase that I won't completely write him off.
Chances: 20%
Mike Jones
He would be a great WTF character, but unfortunately it seems like lately Sakurai is trying to cater to the casuals, and let's face it, hardly any casuals have heard of this guy.
Chances: 4%
Mega Man
This one is even money. On one hand, there's no way Capcom doesn't get a character in this one. High-ranking Nintendo reps have even hinted at it. On the other hand, Capcom has been trying to pretend like Mega Man doesn't exist lately, so I could see the rep being someone from something like Resident Evil.
Chances: 50%
Black/White Trainer
The only way this is happening is if (s)he replaces the existing Pokemon Trainer, which I could definitely see them doing, but my gut tells me that they will want to stick to pleasing the 1st gen fans, especially since another 5th gen character already has a great shot at getting in.
Chances: 20%
Rosalina
Definitely one of the next two in line for the Mario franchise, and people are always clamoring for more female Smash characters. Given that Galaxy was still in production while Brawl was, there was little chance that she was getting in that, but this would be the perfet opportunity to add her.
Chances: 80%
Waluigi
As much as I'd love to see him in, he has enough haters that he seems best-reserved for ATs for now. But when Smash 5 comes around and the roster is nearing 70, he's probably got a shot.
Chances: 20%
Palutena
With Pit appearing for the first time in years in Brawl then Kid Icarus getting a new game this year, they're clearly trying to bring it back from obscurity. If the roster is large enough (I'd say over 52), then Palutena should be a sure-thing. That's IF we get a roster that large.
Chances: 70%
Micaiah
If this were a WiiU launch title, I would give her a much higher rating, but the facts are that the new Fire Emblem will be out by the time this is with a brand new lead, and Micaiah will be old news.
Chances: 18%
Zoroark
Zoroark, Lucario, Mewtwo. Exactly one of them will be in. I'm giving Zoroark a decent chance out of those three. Obviously their %'s will add up to 100.
Chances: 40%
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