LogFAQs > #978810559

Leonhart4 posted...

The logic for taking the ball first is that if it's still tied after the first two possessions, you're in control in a sudden death scenario.

Right, I know, but like I said even that is at the mercy of the second team. If the 49ers score a TD and the Chiefs follow suit, if they don't like their odds of getting a stop in sudden death they can just go for 2 with Mahomes and end it. Likewise, knowing that a FG puts them in sudden death they may be more willing to go for it on fourth down in situations where had they gotten the ball first they feel they "have to" just kick the FG.

And I don't really know that that's advantage 49ers. Again, if Shanahan knows his defense is tired and probably can't stop them if he puts them right back on the field after the end of regulation drive then I get it. And maybe he can't come out and say that so he's using other reasons to answer the question when it comes up - I'm just saying I don't think those answers hold up too well!

Unless the analytics really suggest you should take the ball first but I'd be pretty surprised. Again, the new playoff OT rules strike me as basically College OT and I feel like they game theory'd that out to "you want the ball second" and I don't know why that'd change in the NFL outside some real outlier situations that I don't think apply but will permit might exist.