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TopicPredictions for US election results
YellowSUV
10/27/24 3:58:32 PM
#1:


Here is my prediction:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/e/e331e61d.jpg

Some notes:

Florida votes more Trump than expected and these early results really panic everyone. So many Trump cultists have moved to Florida that it results in the biggest margin of victory Republicans in a long time.

Harris barely wins North Carolina in part because of the really terrible governor candidate Republicans are running.

Harris wins the rust belt states because abortion seems to be a bigger issue there compared to the rest of the country. Trump gets a lot of the Muslim vote compared to the past in Michigan, but it doesn't really matter because of the larger than expected amount of women voting for Harris.

Trump barely wins Georgia in part because of voter suppression and Republican scheming.

Trump barely wins Nevada. Somehow Nevada elected a Republican governor in 2022. Not sure why, but it seems that state is trending that way.

Harris barely wins Arizona in part because of how incompetent the Arizona Republican party is.

In general Trump does get more votes than expected from young men of all races because of his perceived machismo and the decline in men's economic power over time. This is countered by women in general voting more for Harris because of Trump's threat to eroding abortion rights even further.

Old people in general also slightly vote more for Harris than expected. This is in part because they can actually remember the threat of fascism being drilled into their heads (or remember it first hand if they are old enough to have lived through WWII). January 6th seems to have effected older people in general more than younger people.

Old Trump voters also were more likely to die to Covid because they in general didn't take precautions against it. So you simply have a disproportionate amount of 2020 Trump voters now dead compared to 2020 Biden voters.

Republican take back the Senate because Democrats lose spots in West Virginia and Montana. Ted Cruz almost loses his spot but he doesn't.

Democrats take back the House.

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