LogFAQs > #877564613

SKARDAVNELNATE posted...

DarknessLink7 posted...

But do you follow the example I posted?

I follow your example. I don't agree with your conclusion.

We're not dealing with some large table of coins. We know the 99 are heads. That leaves (99H, 1T) or (99H, 1H) as the remaining possibilities. Unless somehow in performing the ritual the probability which didn't occur was transferred to certain coins but not others. And at this point we're so deep in hypotheticals that we are talking about a magic ritual.

You have presented multible ways of rewording the same example and I keep circling the same practical reasoning as to why your example explains nothing. I don't think you understand why a coin flip works out that way any better than I do.

Maybe I don't understand it. It's hard to know with these things. But please bear with me for a while longer. I have something interesting I want to show.

If you accept that the probability of all 100 coins coming up heads is very very low, and you accept that the probability that one of them came up tails is a lot higher, then imagine this:

I tell you that the coin I'm covering up is the seventeenth coin I flipped.

Now suddenly the odds of it being tails is back to 50%. If you don't know which coin I'm covering up, the odds of it being tails is a lot higher, but the moment I tell you which coin it is, it goes back to being 50-50.

This example shows that knowing the order of events affects the probability of other events.
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