LogFAQs > #963829719

THEGODDAMNBATMA posted...

If the strain is deadlier, it is unlikely to be as contagious.

This generally hasn't been true of Covid (see: the three major variants before Omicron that were both more transmissible and deadlier than the previous one). Given the high asymptomatic infection rate and long period of pre-symptomatic transmission, there's very little selective pressure acting on Covid's mortality rate. The only potential selective pressure is the one we artificially apply through public health restrictions, and that can only be true if we respond to deadly outbreaks with stronger restrictions and higher compliance rate (which isn't particularly likely when a sizable chunk of the world's population believes all Covid mortality data has been fabricated).

The whole "viruses tend to evolve to be more contagious and less deadly" thing is generally a considerable oversimplification of the process of viral evolution. Killing the host is usually going to be an undesirable outcome from a reproductive perspective, but there are many more factors involved that can mitigate that selective pressure by quite a bit, even going so far as to render it irrelevant in some cases.

THEGODDAMNBATMA posted...

this is incredibly unlikely.

Omicron BA.2 is already circulating and growing in prevalence. Early data suggests that it's quite a bit more transmissible and causes at least the same severity of disease as BA.1, with some other data suggesting it may be more severe.

https://www.who.int/news/item/22-02-2022-statement-on-omicron-sublineage-ba.2

It's not only not unlikely. It's here.