LogFAQs > #968942599

ParanoidObsessive posted...

They will unless there's a radical shift in the socio-economic and cultural norms of his home district. Because that's how voting patterns work.

There's been a pretty radical shift in the country's politics at the federal level, particularly around the Supreme Court's shenanigans. His home district may not have changed radically, but the current political state of the country may be enough to motivate many of his neighbours who would previously have stayed home because they didn't feel they had a chance at upsetting the status quo to get out and do what they can to change it. Pair that with those who would vote for the status quo staying home because they think it's safe, and you've got a recipe for some surprising upsets.

Is it likely? Not necessarily. There are some districts that are indeed so deeply entrenched in political tradition that upsets are all but impossible. But in many districts it's a whole lot more possible than some might like to think, and given that this is a very high-stakes midterm, taking an hour to try to make sure it doesn't happen isn't the worst idea.

Judgmenl posted...

I'm still guessing TC's Canadian.

Canada's elections function pretty similarly (voting for regional representatives who make up the overall provincial/federal governments, with the number of seats won by each party determining who wins the leadership role). There are some differences, but not any that would be relevant to the point you're trying to make.