LogFAQs > #970179638

Scare. His shot and it not being the stop and BCts reasoning for the stop requires impeccable timing from Suprak. It requires seeing the post within 1-2 seconds of being made and absolutely impeccable blazing speed to format and get the message out as well as hitting the post. It could have been related to Lea, but Lea is mentioned nowhere in the stop.

The message does say and Oh by the way Lopen died. This possibly does line up with scum. Scare I suppose, though I didn't see it but apparently Ben and Han did, indirectly claim the shot immediately, but it isn't until later on that Scare actually does. I don't know that this means anything.

What it boils down to with Scare is the following.

1. If he is lying about his reasoning for shooting, he isn't town. Aka if he didn't shoot during the stop and was the cause of the stop, he isn't town.

2. Isquen flipping town makes it likelier Scare is Scum. It doesn't make it surefire, but it does make it likelier.

3. If Scare is Scum, the best outcome is Isquen dies day 1. This would force town to have to lynch Scare the following day instead of shoot him. The things regarding scum could just stop the painting of the shot at night are very circumstantial. Scum doesn't know what town has and Isquen would have been a high value target to save or watch or so on, if competent town has roles. The worst outcome is that another scum is lynched day 1 and Scare gets killed by Isquen.

4. This is where everything starts to lynchpin. JC and Plum both said Ben was scum but voted for Isquen. Now, the thought process is that Ben tried to divert off Scare to the person he needed to get rid of to buy Scare a way from death.

That's the Ben-Scare scum theory.

However, this kind of avoids the fact that I didn't realize JC was in a 5 vote lead at the time and not noticing the people saying Ben is scum but voting opposite.

Scum is what 5 or 6 this game. Does scum stick their neck out to ensure the isquen lynch with a JC-Plum-Scare scum team to ensure isquen dies and Scare doesn't get shot.

This is not something I immediately saw but with Plums now contradictory reasoning and generally poor play and seeing the JC vote totals, possibly.

That said, this reasoning also could be another way. With a JC-Plum-Ben scum team. JC and Ben were the trains and if this is scum-scum what is better to do than to your perhaps weakest scum role (let's assume Ben is scum fireproof) to make a distraction.

There is a problem with this theory. Why would the scum team want Isquen to die here? Why not just let him kill Scare if he is town? This nets them another dead town. The only actual thinking here that would make this make sense is if they actually thought isquen was a 3rd party arsonist, I suppose.

My vote today will be one of JC Plum Scare and Ben today. And I think JC and Plum should both claim to try and sort this now if possible.