LogFAQs > #970436914

Who else is a pent-up buyer, waiting for the right time?

I just can't come up with the right balance of forces that I think will actually occur. Unemployment is still low, theres still a huge gap between jobs and labor meaning unemployment will remain low and wage inflation will remain high. As long as those factors exist, inflation will remain. Now interest rates are rising which brings down that jobs excess and productivity with should bring those factors down. We're basically going to enter a period of stagflation. Heres the kicker, boomers are retiring and theres not enough workforce to replace them. And these are all kinds of jobs including skilled labor. That one factor alone might be the biggest factor and JPow might never get unemployment to his target unless he absolutely suffocates the economy. There are currently about TWICE as many job openings as there were 6 years ago when things were booming.

As long as people are working, wage inflation is happening, they will keep spending, inflation will continue, and it will create a demand driven price floor for housing. On the flip-side, boomers are retired and the labor force is shrinking, there may be less volume of people overall wanting houses, that drop in demand will pop the bubble, especially in combination with very high mortgage rates.

I think as we go into Q1 and Q2, the long-term outlook will look poorer than it is now and that will drive up bond yields and keep mortgage rates high.

Overall I think there is a bubble that will burst, but as with all things real estate, that burst will occur over the span of several years, not months.

Your guys' thoughts?