LogFAQs > #973893782

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New England Patriots
4. New York Jets

From an offensive perspective, this could be the last hurrah of the Dolphins as QB Sam Keller will certainly retire and LG Max Jean-Gilles and HB Jacquizz Rodgers might follow suit. After years of having a ton of depth and talent, the OL was an issue last season, but with the signing of RT Mitchell Schwartz (I was going to sign him...) and his roughly 13:1 block-per-sack career ratio, they could get even better on that side of the ball. The defense is the calling card for this team though as it hasn't finished outside the Top 10 for probably 15 seasons or so. Even for such a young unit (only three starters in their 30s), they are extremely talented, disruptive, and shut down the run and pass. They haven't missed the playoffs since Sam Keller was installed as the starter, and I can't imagine them missing it in his final season. They also probably have the best odds out of anyone to win their division, but with the Bills and Pats making major moves to close the gap, I won't guarantee it. They normally have a difficult-on-paper schedule because of usually getting a 1st-place schedule, but other than likely being the underdogs in road games against the Pioneers and Vikings, they should be favorites in every other game. I would be surprised if they don't win double digit games. While they work toward a first round bye or even the conference's #1 seed, don't forget that HB Jacquizz Rodgers is working on passing Emmitt Smith on the all-time rushing list and needs around 1500 yards to do so.

The Bills have worked hard to secure high-end talent over the years, but it has never translated to enough wins to make the playoffs. While their stars and scrubs team-building approach has on occasion been tested, they have been one of the healthiest teams over the past several seasons in terms of total injuries and games lost to injury. You can speculate if it was more of collecting the wrong players or playing under a poor strategy, but whatever it just didn't work out. Will this year be different? They brought in upper-90s OL in G Jackson and C Ryan Kelly, so their OL might be pretty decent now. QB Josh Allen had a typical up-and-down season from a QB, but I would say it was a promising campaign, and HB Todd Gurley was his usual self. This offense could climb into the top half of the league if things break right. The defense, which I am assuming won't be kept at a 3-4 or my opinion will be different, is looking promising in the front seven with Top 10 pick DE Dean Lowery. The secondary lacks the talent and production to give me any faith in it, but like the Chiefs, their schedule doesn't have a lot of heavy passing hitters. I do think the Bills are playoff contenders this season, but it will be a battle to grab a wild card.

I hate the Pats switching to a 3-4 D. A lot. When determining defensive alignment, your DL is the only thing that matters. Ignore your LBs and secondary because they are irrelevant. The Pats have two, 20-something DTs with elite makeups that they are just going to put one on the bench. DE Cliff Avril, who is an average-at-best run-defender, is not suited to take on and penetrate through multiple OL. He is a poor fit for a 3-4 D based on his skillset and production. This is a team that consistently finishes in the Top 10 on defense, including last season. There is no good reason from a football perspective to switch to a 3-4. I also do not agree with their decision to let HB Dexter McCluster walk, though they did try to get him back, especially in light of their offensive changes this offseason. Having a great, dependable in a sea of unknowns at offensive skill players at least gives you a focal point. We don't know who QB Brodie Garret is, HB Kenny Hamilton has been an exciting backup in Atlanta, but at the starting level, efficiency is critical for a HB, and if more touches will just result in a typical 3.7 YPC season from him, that's going to blow. WR Martavis Bryant coasted off his out-of-nowhere great season with the Packers a couple of seasons ago, but has been forgettable outside of that. TE Cameron Brate is a blocker and not expected to play much of an offensive role. Sure their offense is a lot more talented than it was a season ago, but how much can it really improve with the players it collected? They still have an elite OL, and while I loathe their defensive decision, I don't think it will tumble to being one of the worst Ds or anything that drastic. I would put them last, but I just have this feeling that they are going to bullshit their way a respectable record. That being said, starting the season with five straight road games and potentially playing multiple without several quality starters is something to keep an eye on if they start off slow and miss out on a playoff spot by a game.

For awhile now, the Jets have been pretty solid across the board, well maybe special teams have been lacking. They have routinely finished in the 11-19 range on offense and defense and had a positive turnover differential. They are still seeking a playoff appearance in the Abacus era, and maybe it comes this season, I don't know, but my guess is we will have to wait another year. The LB corps and secondary look great, but the DL is looking a little shaky right now with no DT really taking charge, and DE Malik Jackson not doing much against the run. Ogbah has been great at least. On offense, the receiving corps is fine while the OL has been a real bright spot. The question is at QB and HB. QB Deshaun Watson was the #2 overall pick awhile ago. He was injured most of his rookie season, and when he finally played, it was promising. Over the ensuing seasons, he has just not looked good. In S16, his passer rating was in the 50s, so last season's upper-60s mark look phenomenal by comparison. He may not have an elite group to throw to, but this is basically his last shot if I was in charge of the team. HB Joe Mixon had a very disappointing campaign after his breakout sophomore campaign in S16. The main culprit was his YPC going down by nearly half a yard. It could be a very ugly offensive season if neither Watson nor Mixon get back on track. I think the Jets have the higher floor and you could argue a higher ceiling than the Bills and Pats, but just call it a feeling that they will be bringing up the rear this year. Their schedule certainly won't help.